Author: Ming Shuyuan official account: Ming shuzatan wechat id:laomingdashu
As of june3,2022, Russia has entered its 100th day of “special military operations” in eastern Ukraine.
It is worth pondering the change of the Biden administration’s attitude towards this war.
At the end of 2021, the Biden administration hyped that Russia was about to “use force” against Ukraine. On the other hand, it rejected Russia’s core negotiation demand that Ukraine should not join NATO and NATO should not deploy offensive weapons in Ukraine.
Does the United States want to avoid war, or is it eager for Russia to “start” and then take the opportunity to kill Russia?
It is not difficult for a discerning man to draw his own conclusions.
On February 24, the war really broke out.
The United States immediately took out the cloak of the “justice messenger” from the bottom of the box and denounced Russia’s “aggression” against Ukraine. However, these American performers have completely forgotten that in the past few decades, the United States itself has successively invaded Iraq, Libya, Syria and other countries, and brought profound disasters to the people of these countries.
Are they suffering from “amnesia” or are their “double marked dogs” showing up again?
According to US media reports, after the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, a small group of people in the US government were “ecstatic”. They felt that Russia’s “use of force” against Ukraine was a big strategic mistake, and the United States could seize the opportunity to kill Russia.
In the past three months or so, the two “clear cards” of the United States in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine – “controlling Russia with Ukraine” and “controlling Europe because of Russia” can be said to have risen with great momentum.
The so-called “controlling Russia with Ukraine” means that the United States knows that Ukraine cannot join NATO, but deliberately does not make a commitment to Russia. When Russia could not bear it and started directly, the United States would unite its allies to launch various extreme sanctions against Russia in order to isolate, attack and contain Russia. At the same time, from the beginning of the war, the United States has provided extensive intelligence support to Ukraine to accurately kill the Russian army. Later, the United States directly provided Ukraine with various targeted weapons. At this time, the United States clearly wants to fight a proxy war against Russia through Ukraine, so that Russia continues to lose blood.
The so-called “control of Europe by Russia” means that the United States makes Russia have to “use force” against Ukraine through its actions, and then the United States takes the opportunity to provoke the fear and hatred of Russia in the whole Europe. The United States’ move not only brought NATO, which was already “brain dead” and the group of seven western countries, which was already dying, back to life, but also destroyed the process of cooperation and reconciliation between the European Union and Russia after the cold war. The United States has also completely spoiled the energy cooperation between the EU and Russia. The EU has to bear the consequences of such “suicide sanctions” such as soaring energy prices and inflation. Russia is also losing the EU, an important energy customer. This move by the United States can be described as “killing two birds with one stone”.
However, as the war continues, the military assistance of the United States and other NATO countries to Ukraine continues to escalate, approaching the bottom line of Russia.
Russia’s seemingly “collapse” performance on the battlefield has also led people in the United States and some other NATO countries to fantasize. They could not contain their inner impulse and tried to get involved in the war more deeply without provoking a direct conflict with Russia, so as to bring a greater blow to Russia.
At this time, even Biden began to be afraid.
There is a basic premise for all the gains the United States has made so far in the Russian Ukrainian conflict, that is, the United States cannot directly break out military conflict with Russia.
Otherwise, the war may change from the mode that makes the United States very comfortable – “die a friend but not a poor man”, to the mode that makes the United States very worried – “die a friend and a poor man together”.
Russia’s “skinny camel is bigger than a horse”. Its powerful nuclear deterrent is like a sledgehammer hanging far above the head of the United States. Generally, it will not fall, but once it falls, the United States will be disabled if it does not die.
For Russian President Putin, if the United States and other NATO countries provide assistance to Ukraine, Russia may lose the war; Or, if the United States and other NATO countries want to carry out regime change against him, Putin is obviously ready to fight a nuclear war.
At that time, “those who are barefoot are not afraid of wearing shoes”, and the country that is more afraid must be the United States.
Therefore, we can see that Biden, who had once thrown out a signal of suspected regime change against Putin and claimed to defeat Russia strategically, began to retreat.
On May 31, Biden personally wrote to the New York Times and made the “four noes” commitment to Putin across the air:
First, the United States does not seek to overthrow the Putin regime;
Second, as long as the United States and its allies are not attacked, the United States will not directly participate in the war. The United States will neither send U.S. troops to fight in Ukraine nor attack Russian troops;
Third, the United States does not encourage Ukraine to attack targets in Russia;
Fourth, the United States will not deliberately prolong the war in order to cause greater suffering to Russia.
Many people in China tend to look up to and admire the United States, and always imagine that the United States is omnipotent. However, the actual situation is that the United States is not omnipotent. The United States also has its own fears and weaknesses.
In the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the United States seems to have played two “clear cards” to the wind. However, as the war situation continues to evolve, the risk of the United States’ intentional or unintentional direct involvement in the war is increasing.
Therefore, at this time, Biden will give Putin “reassurance”.
For the Biden administration, it must accept the good news as soon as possible.
Otherwise, if the United States forces Russia to throw nuclear bombs at each other with the United States and other NATO countries, both sides will be defeated in the end.
But on a deeper level, Biden’s move is also putting a “smoke bomb” on Putin.
On the one hand, Biden kept saying that the United States would not break Russia’s bottom line; On the other hand, the United States has used Ukraine’s hand to bleed Russia.
This is just like a gangster who comforts you with good words and says that he has no malice towards you, so as to relieve your vigilance against him and let you not resist; On the other hand, his fists, sticks and daggers are all greeting you. All his moves are to kill you.
The Biden administration is very good at fighting this “hypocrite fist”.
On the Taiwan issue, isn’t the Biden administration the same?
Biden pulled back, there is another important consideration.
Biden and his Democratic Party, with Putin, have a national hatred of “constant cutting and chaos”. They are not only in serious opposition to Putin in politics, diplomacy and ideology, but also firmly believe that Putin tried to intervene in the US presidential election twice in 2016 and 2020 in order to put their arch rival trump in power.
This time, taking advantage of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the Biden government launched US allies to condemn and impose sanctions on Russia, which was also a kind of revenge for public and private interests, and gave a vicious blow in his heart.
But in fact, Biden and others are very clear in their hearts that Russia, in decline, is unable to bring a comprehensive challenge to American hegemony. It is China that really keeps them awake at night.
Although China has repeatedly said that it has no intention to compete with the United States for hegemony and that the main purpose of China’s development is to enable more than 1.4 billion Chinese people to live a better life, some people in the United States are beginning to worry or even fear in the face of China’s booming development momentum.
Containment of China has been the common goal of almost all US politicians in power in recent years.
Therefore, Biden retreated from the Russian Ukrainian conflict at this time because he was afraid that the United States would inadvertently be involved in a direct military conflict with Russia. Once such a situation occurs, even if the United States can finally cripple Russia, the United States will inevitably be black and blue, or even have broken arms and legs.
The last thing the Biden administration wants to see is that the United States and Russia are fighting to the death, while China is sitting on the sidelines.
Some people in the United States have long reflected that after entering the 21st century, the United States held high the banner of the global war on terrorism and lost two precious decades in the Middle East, which precisely created a rare strategic opportunity for China’s rapid development.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been going on for 100 days. What the Biden administration fears most is that the United States will fall into another war, creating a new period of strategic opportunities for China.
There is a Chinese saying: “the more you fear, the more you will come.”
When Russia attacked Ukraine 100 days ago, the United States believed that Russia had lost; But from another point of view, when the United States forced Russia to take action, the United States also lost.
In the strategic triangle between China, the United States and Russia, the United States has irreversibly pushed Russia to the side of China. If Biden thinks that he can attack Russia and China at the same time, he can only dream.
Russia is the world’s largest exporter of oil, natural gas, grain and other important materials, while China is the world’s largest trading country, largest industrial country and largest consumer market. Closer together, China and Russia will become the most powerful force restricting American hegemony.
I have always believed that the United States is obviously “picking the sesame and losing the watermelon” in making a decision for Russia on the Ukrainian issue. The United States severely punished Russia, but it also created a “lifelong enemy” for itself and a powerful partner for China.
After yesterday’s article was published (Biden put forward the “four nos” principle, and Ukraine is over!), Some friends worry that if the United States appeases Russia, does it mean that it will focus on dealing with China next?
This must be the wishful thinking of the Biden administration.
On the one hand, the United States wants to cause the greatest harm to Russia at the least cost; On the other hand, the United States wants to prevent the “branch plot” of Russia US contradictions from affecting the “main plot” of the Sino US game.
However, the tricks were too clever, and Qing Qing’s life was lost.
The United States cannot get away from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine for a while.
Russia seems to be “pulled down”. In fact, it is pressing forward step by step. Ukraine has lost one fifth of its territory and is about to be beaten into a landlocked country by Russia.
Next, whether the United States continues to assist Ukraine, continue to hurt Russia, or prepare for the coming peace talks, it must invest valuable attention and other strategic resources on the Ukrainian issue.
More importantly, the United States has its own calculations, and China has its own plans.
Compared with the United States, which is preoccupied with security issues and is willing to create unrest around the world, China, which holds high the banner of mutual benefit and win-win results, can obviously bring greater practical benefits to most countries in the world than the United States.
If the United States really wants to take risks and lure, force and induce war around China, it will find that China is not Russia. In the face of challenges to China’s sovereignty, security and core interests of development, China will take a thunderbolt stance, which will hurt the United States.
The game between China and the United States is a protracted war. The domestic people must not be brought to the rhythm by some “spiritual Americans”. At this moment, if there are still people advocating “cutting Russia and reconciliation with the United States”, they are either stupid or bad, or stupid and bad. There are also those “soft bones” who constantly preach that Russia will lose, China will lose and the United States will win. Their rickets are rooted in their minds and hearts. It is useless to give them more calcium tablets.
For those of us who are firmly “optimistic about China”, we believe that as long as China continues to deepen reform, expand opening up, continue to do its own thing in a down-to-earth manner, continue to maintain strategic patience and strategic rationality, the United States, a “paper tiger”, will sooner or later reveal its true face.