Author: Rong ping source: official account: Rong Ping (id:rongping898) has been authorized to reprint
The past few months have been a highlight of ZELINSKY’s life. As long as he appeared in front of the camera, all the politicians on the stage stood up and applauded enthusiastically with a smile on their faces. Even the president of the United States has never felt like a cloud of followers. Under the influence of this fanatical atmosphere, ZELINSKY even said that he would counterattack the Russian army. However, a month has passed, and we have not seen the counter offensive against the Russian army. Recently, the Ukrainian army is about to collapse.
According to the report of lianta.com on June 2, a few days ago, Ukrainian President Zelensky appeared on camera again to “sponsor”. In an online video speech to Luxembourg politicians, he said that Russia currently controls one-fifth of Ukraine’s territory (about 125000 square kilometers), the front line of the entire Russian Ukrainian war has been stretched to 1000 kilometers, and the Russian army has penetrated into about 3630 settlements in Ukraine. At the end of his speech, Zelensky once again asked European countries to increase their arms assistance and impose tougher sanctions on Russia.
(all Luxembourg politicians stood up and applauded Zelensky)
This is not the only bad news that ZELINSKY recently released. The Ukrainian state news agency said that Zelensky disclosed to them that the current situation facing Ukraine is very difficult. Every day, 60-100 Ukrainian soldiers are killed and about 500 injured in the war. Yermak, director of the office of the president of Ukraine, gave a more accurate figure: the direct economic losses caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine have exceeded 600billion US dollars, accounting for 35% of Ukraine’s GDP.
Since the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine, Zelinski has fallen into a state of disrepair. No matter what talks he attends or meets with any political dignitaries, his image is full of beards and a tactical vest. Now he is crying for poverty in Luxembourg, which makes people feel “lonely and haggard”. Indeed, the situation in Ukraine is becoming more and more in the direction that Zelensky does not want to see. For a president who was born as an actor, this may be the most helpless moment in his life.
Why do you say that? Recently, the Ukrainian army has been losing ground on the battlefield. The Russian army has captured one city after another, but there has been no decent counter offensive by the Ukrainian army. It’s strange that ZELINSKY is in a good mood when so much bad news is sent to his desk one by one.
However, the situation will not change because of Zelensky’s own will. Where will the war between Russia and Ukraine go? Next, this paper will analyze the current situation, external influence and future development.
Current situation
The above figure is the current war situation map released by the Russian satellite news agency on June 1. From this picture, we can clearly see that after a period of operations, the Russian army has obviously mastered most of the strategic nodes in the eastern region of Ukraine. The current focus of operations is the campaign against the Ukrainian army’s protrusion in the black box region. There are many elite troops of the Ukrainian army in this prominent ministry. They are doing their best to maintain the front and avoid being completely surrounded by the pocket array of the Russian army.
But will the Russian army give them this chance? Since the start of the second phase of the war, the Russian army has started to open fire in the literal sense, and all kinds of shells have greeted the Ukrainian army without money, without saving ammunition. A small group of Ukrainian troops was found on the roadside? The direct call for artillery coverage has no consideration of close combat at all; The position would be better done. First, take the shells and blast them for a few hours. If there were any survivors, there would be another round. The Ukrainian army in the bunker could not bear such a toss. Although at the level of campaign tactics, Russia’s approach is to build a hard stronghold and fight in a daze, which is neither valuable nor worth learning, it has indeed brought the biggest casualties to the Ukrainian army since the war: the Ukrainian army’s ground forces have been divided into pieces by the Russian army, and they can’t connect with each other. Logistics supplies can’t be transported. They can only watch one shell after another fall on their heads.
The Ukrainian army in the encirclement is faced with such a situation. Of course, they can withstand the Russian attack for a while, but without logistical supplies and new soldiers, it is only a matter of time before they are destroyed. The Russian army continues to narrow the encirclement circle steadily. There is no essential difference between them and the defenders of the Asian speed steel plant. They are just a dead move.
The current situation is the normal play of Russia. In the first phase of the war, the Russian army believed cheerfully that it could win quickly. As a result, it lost itself in the vast territory of Ukraine. There were many amazing things, which also made Taiwan’s “1450” very happy for a period of time. After losing the battle, the Russian army learned from the bitter experience. Starting from its own actual situation, it gave up the idea of quickly solving the problem of the Ukrainian army and began to gradually erode the elite strength of the Ukrainian army from eastern Ukraine. The results of the war have proved the correctness of this strategy.
After the war began, the Ukrainian army occasionally played a more brilliant role at the campaign and tactical level, but the strategic level was in a mess. In fact, the Ukrainian army began to expand and prepare for war after the Crimea incident in 2014. The United States, Britain and other countries have also sent military instructors to train the Ukrainian army. Therefore, some Ukrainian troops are quite effective and can occasionally ambush the Russian army. However, no matter how good the military literacy of grass-roots officers is, they can not affect the whole war situation. The group of Ukrainian politicians represented by ZELINSKY should really receive American training.
Why do you say that? Because ZELINSKY’s strategic deployment is really puzzling. Everyone knows that the Ukrainian army can not defeat the Russian army in the face-to-face battle. The only thing that can be expected is to consume the Russian army’s combat power through a protracted war, wait for changes in Russia, and finally achieve a disastrous victory. However, after receiving the early warning from Britain, America and other countries, ZELINSKY still placed the main force of the Ukrainian army in the eastern Ukrainian region instead of adopting the echelon configuration from east to west. As a result, the main force of the Ukrainian army was surrounded at the beginning of the war and basically did not play a role. Now it began to be nibbled away by the Russian army. Instead, the war became a war of attrition against Ukraine. Moreover, Zelinski often had unrealistic illusions and ordered the troops to counter attack for many times. Many Ukrainian troops did not want to die in vain, so there was a mutiny. The 115th brigade of the Ukrainian army even mutinied twice.
External influence
Although American politicians are full of benevolence, righteousness and morality, they never have any psychological burden when it comes to practical interests. After a round of applause for zelianski, American politicians began to “cold deal” with Ukraine. The most obvious sign is that Biden starts playing cards in the Asia Pacific region again.
The recent efforts of the United States seem to be focused on containing China. The specific actions include but are not limited to: Biden’s visit to Japan and the ROK, ASEAN leaders invited to the White House, the United States Japan joint military exercise, Antony Blinken’s speech on China policy, etc. we basically have a special analysis, which will not be repeated here. The United States can no longer “win two wars at the same time”. If it targets China, it will ignore Europe; For Europe, he ignored China, which was caused by the relative decline of the United States and the rise of China. Such a big battle in the Asia Pacific region shows that the United States will stop fighting on the Ukrainian issue.
The Ukrainian issue is essentially an issue between the United States and Russia. Without the support of the United States, Ukraine could not have lasted so long. However, the current attitude of the United States has proved that it has the idea of always retreating. Perhaps one day in the future, it will be ready to sell Zelensky and go to Russia for peace talks.
And the $40billion military assistance that was hyped a while ago, after the announcement of specific projects, was also surprising. Originally, the $40billion was not used to directly buy weapons for Ukraine, but was divided into 23 sub items and spent in various aspects. Among them, only about $15billion was used to provide weapons and training personnel for Ukraine. I’m afraid only the American arms dealers know how much this money can be implemented. You should know that these people have done such a thing as a $2000 coffee cup. The 10-year war in Afghanistan has cost the United States $2trillion, and these arms dealers have made “great contributions”.
The European Union, another big financier of ZELINSKY, now seems to be a little tired of the war between Russia and Ukraine and is unwilling to get involved in this muddy water. The only practical action taken by the EU against Russia recently is the implementation of the sixth round of sanctions against Russia. Of course, this has had little impact on the heavily sanctioned Russia. As for Ukraine’s accession to the EU, German Foreign Minister Burke said that there would be no quick procedure for Ukraine’s accession to the EU: “there will be no discount there.” This is basically a clear refusal. As for the EU countries’ military assistance to Ukraine, we can even describe it as a drop in the bucket. Poland sent a batch of self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine at the end of last month. The performance of these howitzers is not backward, but the number is too small. There are only 18 howitzers in total, which are not enough to equip a synthetic battalion of our army.
Obviously, the precondition for the United States and European countries to assist Ukraine is that Ukraine can really hold the Russian attack and consume the Russian strength. This goal was indeed achieved in the first stage. Therefore, they are willing to add more money to Ukraine in order to expand the war results. It is more cost-effective for the United States and Europe to spend money to buy peace. However, in the second stage, the Ukrainian army retreated one after another, and the eastern Ukrainian region was half in the hands of the Russian army, which fully exposed various problems existing in the Ukrainian army. It seems that the trend of the war has been doomed. Will these people still do business at a loss?
Future development
We have analyzed the current war situation and the external assistance that Ukraine relies on. It is not difficult to find that the war has become increasingly detrimental to Ukraine.
In the future, the Russian army will continue to adopt the method of building strong strongholds and fighting stupid battles, one by one gnawing down the strategic nodes of the defense of the Ukrainian army. This is just like the strategy adopted by Zeng Guofan to fight against the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom, and it is also the military thought of Sun Tzu’s art of war that “the first is invincible, and the enemy is invincible”. As far as the Russian army is concerned, this can greatly reduce the casualties of the troops. After all, it will be over if the artillery shells blow enough. In the future, we can even take the method of “round warfare”, send some recruits to defend the strategic nodes, and free up elite “BTG” to face the Ukrainian army directly. Russia is no matter how poor it is, it can always afford to be hit.
However, the Ukrainian army could do nothing about this strategy. Face the Russians? Not at all. Before the war, Zelinski deployed all the elite troops in Wudong area. These troops are basically composed of veterans. They have received military training from British and American instructors, and their military literacy and fighting will are relatively high. Previously, those Ukrainian troops who would rather die than surrender were basically these veterans. However, as the war continued to wear out, these veterans gradually lost their lives and injuries. Some of the newly recruited soldiers did not even fire their guns several times. They simply could not face up to the Russian attack. It would be good not to mutiny. Even if ZELINSKY holds the military aid of various countries, it is unrealistic to expect the recruits in the rear to fight with the Russian army with these military aid, and it is uncertain whether they will use them.
And then take the shrink tactic? This is just self deception. Even the fortifications like the Yasu iron and steel plant have been conquered by the Russian army. Can those field fortifications dug by the Ukrainian army be carried? The Yasu iron and steel plant was dug by the Soviet Union to prepare for the Third World War. The Russian army then conquered the Ukrainian army strongholds one by one like a hamster. The Ukrainian army could not take care of each other. These strongholds were just graves dug up by themselves.
It is impossible to expect major changes in the international situation. Not to mention that the United States and Europe have the intention to give up Ukraine, the recent economic trend of Russia can make Russia continue to fight. According to Caijing magazine, as of late May, the ruble has risen by 20% since the beginning of the year, about 160% higher than the trough after the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine three months ago, and has become the world’s best performing currency from the worst performing currency at the end of February. In addition, although the EU has reduced the import of energy from Russia, it is not worried about selling energy. The EU does not buy it, and some countries buy it. Recently, India has imported a large amount of Russian oil. Modi’s support rate had dropped because of the high domestic oil price. Modi would laugh when cheap Russian oil came in. If Russian oil companies cut prices again to fight a price war, I’m afraid the United States will also be a profiteer to earn European money.
At the end of the article, the author has something to say
On June 3, Russia’s “news network” reported that the Russian army has begun to plan the third stage of combat tasks, with the goal of taking Nikolayev, Odessa and Kharkov. According to this situation, the Russian army is becoming more and more successful. Its future goal can never stay in these states. At least it should win half of Ukraine. The war may not be finished this year.
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A gentleman hides his weapons in his body. He will act when the time comes. If he does not make a sound, he will become a blockbuster. Now is a good time for China to make a lot of money. No matter how the Ukrainian issue will be resolved in the future, it will not be without China’s help. At that time, China’s influence will expand to Central Asia and the Middle East. What’s more, these countries are begging China to go, which is not much stronger than military action? The United States has been tossing about for so many years, but it still doesn’t understand it. Let’s continue to see how long Biden can still struggle in the quagmire of Ukraine.