Original: housha source wechat official account: housha has been authorized to reprint
The European “big three”, French President macron, German Chancellor Scholz and Italian Prime Minister Draghi, finally arrived in Kiev by train on the morning of the 16th.
Deputy Prime Minister Irina veleshuk of Ukraine greeted the three leaders at the Kiev railway station, which was the highest level and strongest team to visit Ukraine since the outbreak of the conflict.
They visited irpin city in the northwest of Kiev and met with Zelensky here.
As there were no bodies at the scene of the “Bucha Massacre”, makron and others were taken to the ruins of yirping city for war education.
Dozens of Western journalists gathered around the “big three” and snapped specific shots.
In front of the ruins, someone told them about the terrible situation at that time. The three people looked dignified. It seemed that macron was about to cry.
To use some Ukrainian fans, it means that the leaders of the three countries were shocked by the “tragedy of Russian military atrocities”. In irping, France, Germany and Italy strengthened their determination to fully support Ukraine in winning the war.
This military conflict lasted more than 100 days. Does makron, Scholz and Draghi now know the horror of war? These political veterans need on-site education to feel shocked?
Their performance is not as good as that of the frightened “little girl” von delaine. At least she will cover her chest and look right and left.
Almost every close-up photo of the “big three” during their trip is a still photo.
German Chancellor Scholz sent a photo of himself. He said in a tweet: like Bucha, irpin has already become an unimaginable symbol of cruelty and meaningless violence in the Russian Ukrainian war. The brutal destruction of the city is a warning that the war must end.
But Ukraine doesn’t want to hear these words. Zelensky’s adviser alestovic said before that he was very worried that the three leaders came to Kiev to pressure Ukraine to accept the ceasefire agreement in favor of Putin.
France’s previous repeated attitude also shows that the time for this trip is not ripe.
So which one of the “big three” came to Kiev to sing, “little widow goes to the grave”? Crying but thinking about the future.
Judging from the current situation, the Ukrainian authorities have no way out. The best result it can get is an expanded version of the Minsk agreement, which stops the war at a certain node.
Europe’s “leading station”
Although many people said that they came to persuade surrender, the three countries could not actually go to Kiev to persuade Surrender:
1? After long-term expression of full support for Ukraine’s political position, the visit of EU leaders is to exert political pressure on Russia. In order to obtain more chips in future negotiations with Russia, of course, this is a European chip;
2? Zelensky is a completely unreliable clown. If macron or Scholz persuades him to surrender in the closed door talks. Well, once ZELINSKY has released the contents of his talk, they will not be able to end it.
In this picture, only makron, Scholz and Zelensky are meaningful, while Romanian President Johannes, Italian Prime Minister Draghi and Ukrainian foreign minister kuleba are just the foil.
France, Germany and Italy also harboured evil intentions:
1? Macron, France will no longer be the rotating president of the EU next month (replaced by the Czech Republic). He wants to draw a big cake for Ukraine on behalf of the EU. “It is time for Europe to assure Ukraine of its vision for the EU. We need to send a clear political signal to Ukraine.”
If Ukraine can be successfully induced to take the initiative to negotiate with Russia, macron will have the opportunity to reverse the previous impression of his incompetence.
2? Scholz, he is the most powerful European leader to intervene in the situation in Ukraine. However, Germany’s internal attitude towards Ukraine is divided. Even the initial 5000 steel helmets have not been supplied to this day, let alone providing modern tanks to the Ukrainian army.
The Ukrainian ambassador to Germany has scolded the German president and Prime Minister many times, but Germany just did not take action.
Now Ukraine wants Germany to donate dozens of “Mars 2” multiple rocket launchers, but Germany only agrees to give three, which will not be completed until August.
The German approach is to delay. It never wants to take risks because of Ukraine (a military confrontation with Russia), but it also wants to show the west its determination to “defend values”.
Scholz came to Ukraine mainly to emphasize the importance of the armistice, with makron as the protagonist.
3? Draghi, it doesn’t matter whether Italy comes or not. It has sold out its EU teammates before. Draghi said on June 1 that almost all EU powers except Italy are opposed to Ukraine’s accession to the EU.
However, it was Italy that publicly advocated purchasing Russian oil in rubles. On May 12, Draghi also disclosed that Germany had begun to do so and sold Germany.
Italy’s domestic economy has become very bad under the double impact of the epidemic and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Facing the situation of European debt default, it really hopes to return to the pre war state. Ukraine has nothing to do with it.
On May 30, the Italian Coalition Party also proposed that Russia and Ukraine negotiate in the Vatican, but no one paid any attention to it.
Italy, which sells its teammates, came to Kiev because of a guilty conscience. By the way, it showed its great power status.
Since each has its own ideas, then this is a pure performance.
What they can do is to help Ukraine design an expanded version of the Minsk agreement.
In 2015, the Minsk agreement was signed by Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France as the guarantor of the ceasefire. However, when Ukraine repeatedly attacked eastern Ukraine with heavy weapons, Germany and France did not perform their duties.
Russia fulfilled its duty not to recognize the two states of eastern Ukraine as “Independent States” until seven years later.
In fact, when the Ukrainian military launched an attack with heavy weapons, the Minsk agreement had been destroyed.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel persuaded Russia to unilaterally maintain the Minsk agreement through the construction of the “Beixi 2” project.
In 2022, as soon as the new German government took office, foreign minister Berger bluntly refused to allow the “Beixi 2” natural gas pipeline to be put into operation. Soon, Putin recognized the independence of the two states in eastern Ukraine, and the Minsk agreement was completely abolished.
The outbreak of military conflict shows that Germany and France cannot ensure the maintenance of the Minsk agreement.
Therefore, the new Minsk agreement must be expanded, and the countries that join it are likely to include a big power in the East and the United States.
If the two powers become signatories to the expanded Minsk agreement, the binding force will be strong.
The key is where is the node of the Russian Ukrainian ceasefire?
Russia hopes to control the southeast corridor, the entire area of the eastern two states, the Crimean Peninsula, the southern Kherson state and zaporoze state to become Ukrainian State “divorced” from Ukrainian management.
Ukraine has secured the security of Kharkov state and coastal Odessa state, kept its access to the sea and avoided becoming a landlocked country.
After the node is determined, we will talk about the issue of de Nazism and de militarization.
After the signing of the agreement, both sides should avoid provocative acts. The best way is to send UN peacekeeping forces to the contact area between the two sides.
However, as a permanent member of the Security Council, Russia is unlikely to accept peacekeeping forces without Russian soldiers. This requires coordination from other major countries and must be a major country that Russia trusts.
That is to say, France, Germany and Italy are just “playing a leading role” for big countries outside Europe to test the “nodes” that ZELINSKY can accept. However, his boss decides what “nodes” he can accept.
After watching the performance of the “big three” in Kiev, it is really impressive that Europe is so incompetent and weak:
lost track of time!
The result of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will greatly change the original pattern of international power. Major countries should be prepared to fight hard, so as to calm down the warmongers.