Author: Xusheng source: Xusheng (official account id:lxlong20) has been reproduced with authorization
01 boss boring journey
President macron of France, Chancellor Schultz of Germany and Prime Minister Draghi of Italy, the top three of the European Union, took a group to Kiev. The three old railways started from the MEDIKA border port in Poland and took the overnight train to Kiev.
I felt strange when I saw the news. What on earth is wrong? I can’t say for a moment. Based on the basic quality of a qualified melon eater, I conducted a little information mining.
MEDIKA, the starting point of the three old railways, is the largest border port between Poland and Ukraine. It is an important hub of Dongwu. From there, it is very convenient to go eastward to Lvov and Kiev in Ukraine, or westward to zheshuf or Krakow in Poland.
After the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian war, a large number of Ukrainian refugees enter Poland from the MEDIKA border port every day. Because they can take the train directly to Lvov, then enter Poland from MEDIKA, go directly to Krakow, the second largest city in Poland, and then go to Germany from there.
MEDIKA is about 600 kilometers from Kiev, which is not far. If you take the high-speed rail in China, you can finish it in twoorthree hours; Ordinary railways take only fiveorsix hours; Even if you drive by yourself, it won’t take you overnight.
The efficiency of the three old EU railways who took the train overnight is too low. This event fully illustrates two points:
First, the infrastructure in Eastern Europe is too backward, and the artery leading to Kiev has a lot of room for improvement; This means that there is much room for improvement in the infrastructure upgrading level of Eurasia in the future.
Second, during the Ukrainian war, Russia did not destroy the existing infrastructure in Ukraine on a large scale.
Nevertheless, according to the three old railway ranks, taking a special plane to Kiev can also save a lot of time. Why do you choose this primitive way of travel?
1. They have plenty of time and leisure.
——This probability is not high. Even if they really have time and leisure, three middle-aged and elderly men walk at night with the camera, they can’t do any entertainment. It’s not very interesting.
2. They have important business to discuss.
——This probability is slightly higher. After all, the life of the European Union has been difficult. After the outbreak of the war between Russia and Ukraine, it was impacted by the surge in energy. The three have to think about how to avoid breaking up the EU.
3. Reflect unity.
——This probability is very high. After all, the EU’s fragmented alliance is not favored by many gourd eaters. Many people want to see the joke of the disintegration of the European Union. Showing unity at this time is a relatively reasonable way of publicity.
4. Safety considerations. After all, during the war, flying has certain potential safety hazards.
So what did the three old irons send to Ukraine?
02 macron gift bag
Some time ago, when European politicians frequently went to Kiev to punch in, macron pretended to be cold and said that he would not go until Russia and Ukraine could not reach a substantive solution.
Now that macron has gone to Kiev, what big gift bag did he bring to solve the conflict between Russia and Ukraine?
Gift Pack 1, spiritual encouragement.
Macron said that Ukraine can defeat Russia and recover all its territory, including Crimea. As for when and how to win, macron has no answer.
So although macron’s words are quite pleasant to hear, they are roughly equivalent to the soul chicken soup cooked by the master of successful learning.
Gift bag two, weapons.
Makron announced in Kiev that he would provide six “Caesar” self-propelled guns to the Ukrainian army.
I have to say that France is too stingy. Anyway, it is also one of the five permanent members. When the president went to Ukraine, he added only six new guns, which really didn’t make it to the table.
Of course, this can also be understood from another aspect. France doesn’t want to stimulate Russia, so it gives some meaning to some guns.
Gift package three, persuasion.
Makron said, I have been in touch with President Zelensky! We Europeans share a continent, and Russia was, is and will be a part of it. I never said we would go to war with Russia.
At the same time, macron also said that the Russia Ukraine issue should be discussed between Ukraine and Russia in person, and the EU will not replace Ukraine and Russia.
This is a little funny. First of all, even if the EU helps Ukraine to talk, it can not talk well. Secondly, if Ukraine can negotiate with Russia, it will not fight at all.
The core of Russia and Ukraine is the territorial issue. Russia wants to seize Crimea and Eastern and southern Ukraine. Ukraine can’t do it by itself. Please ask the West for help. Now France says that letting Ukraine talk is almost equivalent to indirect persuasion, which to some extent implies that Ukraine gives up its territory.
So how to evaluate makron’s punching in Kiev this time? Look at this photo below.
It is obvious from the photos that macron was intoxicated when he hugged ZELINSKY and thought he was very charming. ZELINSKY’s eyes are full of resistance, unwilling but helpless… It’s like a prodigal son in love playing tricks on a good family woman.
Why doesn’t ZELINSKY get mad?
Gift pack four, temptation.
Macron said that he had negotiated with Schultz and Draghi and would let Ukraine obtain the EU candidate as soon as possible. This temptation is still very big.
We should know that Ukraine is equivalent to the poor households in Europe, and the EU is equivalent to the rich circle. Ukraine and Russia, the former big brother, are fighting against each other. In fact, they want to join the rich circle in the West. So no matter how unhappy ZELINSKY is with macron, he will not get angry.
03 Schultz gift bag
German Chancellor Schultz is another style.
On the way to Kiev, Schultz carried his bag.
According to the picture, his bag has been worn by visual inspection.
Schultz’s style reflects the pragmatism of the Germans. As we all know, Germans are known for their pragmatism. So the German chancellor is pragmatic and everyone can understand.
In order to express his reality, Schultz also threw out a gift bag and asked Zelensky to attend the G7 conference in Germany in the second half of this year. Before the fall out between the West and Russia, Russia once joined the G7 (then called the G8).
But Schultz’s trip to Ukraine also showed a passionate side. After his visit to ilpin, a suburb of Kiev, he sent a passionate twitter, “ilpin, like Bucha, has long become a symbol of unimaginable cruelty and meaningless violence in the Russian war. (to) the cruel destruction of this city is a memorial – this war must end.”
This tweet, at least emotionally, means that Schultz is on the Ukrainian side. But feelings are feelings, and politicians are realistic.
Schultz added that the war must end.
Germany and France belong to the facade of the European Union and advance and retreat together. So macron’s idea (let Ukraine and Russia negotiate directly) is Schultz’s idea.
So Schultz’s view is basically an indirect persuasion, which to some extent implies that Ukraine gives up its territory. For Ukraine, Schultz sent a bitter fruit.
One of the main excuses for Russia to launch the war in Ukraine is that Ukraine violated the “new Minsk agreement”. The agreement was signed by Germany and France with Ukraine and Russia.
Looking at the intentions of Germany and France, we still want to make peace on the basis of the “new Minsk agreement”. However, Russian troops have entered Ukraine. Western public opinion has fallen into an extremely anti Russian situation. At this stage, no politician dares to directly recommend peace. Macron and Schultz dared not make peace, but indirectly implied the Ukrainian peace talks on the curve to save the country.
Their main bargaining chip is to lure Ukraine into the EU.
Back to the beginning of the article, makron, Schultz and Draghi, three middle-aged and elderly men, are willing to spend the night wandering to Kiev in an old car. A big reason is to discuss how to indirectly (pay attention to this word) promote the peace talks between Ukraine and Russia.
As long as Ukraine is willing to hold peace talks and make appropriate concessions in terms of territory to meet Russia’s appetite, the EU can consider absorbing Ukraine into the EU while promoting Russia Ukraine reconciliation.
Because if the war in Ukraine goes on for a long time, the EU is likely to be torn apart. Makron and the other three old irons’ visit is nominally to help Ukraine, but in fact, it is the EU’s self-help.
In order to illustrate the EU’s intentions, we should also add a little bit about the structure of the European continent.
04 continental Europe
Things in continental Europe are very complicated. Since ancient times, various religious wars have been going on. The two world wars and the cold war were initiated by Europe as the main participants.
A brief analysis of the situation on the European continent:
The United States and Britain are one faction. They are sea power thinking and natural checks and balances on Eurasia. When necessary, it will create chaos and draw chestnuts from the fire.
The essence of the Ukrainian issue is a game of chess between the United States, Britain and Burundi. By detonating the Ukrainian war, the goal of weakening Russia and reaping the wealth of the European Union was achieved. After the war broke out, the United States and Britain also made a lot of money.
The United States and Britain mainly focus on the Baltic countries, Poland and Finland. They are extremely anti Russian for fear of Russia, and hold the thighs of the United States and Britain. Therefore, after the outbreak of the war, their support for Ukraine was the most resolute.
In addition, the former Warsaw Pact countries such as Czech Republic, Slovenia, Bulgaria and Romania are also close to the United States and Britain.
France and Germany are one school. They are land power thinking and have great European thinking. So they have always wanted to calm the European continent and to quell the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. When Russia took away Crimea, Germany basically did not make a statement, and was still clueless about the “beixi-2” project with Russia.
Their supporters include Austria, Switzerland, the Netherlands and Luxembourg, which are rich and oil-rich countries. These countries also do not want chaos in Europe.
Of course, they also have several allies, namely Hungary, Serbia and dniezuo, which are relatively Pro Russian. Hungary is a member of NATO and the European Union. Therefore, Hungary is fiercely opposed to Western sanctions against Russia.
After the outbreak of the Ukrainian war, although the West unilaterally sanctioned Russia. However, within the west, the interests of the sea power faction in the United States, Britain and Germany are not consistent with those of the greater European faction in France.
This time France, Germany and Italy went to Kiev to represent the interests of Greater Europe. Whether they can indirectly persuade Ukraine to hold peace talks with Russia does not entirely depend on Zelensky, but also on the United States and Britain.
As soon as macron and Schultz left, Johnson hurried to Kiev to meet Zelensky.
05 Johnson’s surprise visit
On June 17, Johnson paid a surprise visit to Kiev.
In his speech welcoming Johnson, ZELINSKY said, “this is borisjohnson’s second visit to Kiev since Russia’s comprehensive invasion of our land. We have a common understanding of how Ukraine will move towards victory. Thank you for your strong support!”
It’s more natural to see ZELINSKY and Johnson together than to hug macron.
Johnson has always been tough on Russia. After his last visit to Ukraine, Johnson said that “when necessary, Britain will bypass NATO and declare war directly with Russia”. At that time, the gourmet people only noticed Johnson’s wild words (to fight with Russia), but few people noticed what it meant to “bypass NATO”.
After macron and Schultz arrived in Kiev, the situation became clear. Because macron said he never wanted to go to war with Russia. That means that within NATO, the greater European faction represented by France and Germany does not want to go to war with Russia. Johnson said that bypassing NATO was actually bypassing France and Germany.
Johnson’s surprise visit to Kiev will be easy to understand. He was worried that Zelensky was tempted by France and Germany to use the qualification of “EU Member States” and really went to negotiate with Russia.
Johnson’s strategy is to pull Poland, the three Baltic countries, Finland and Ukraine to form a so-called new alliance, completely block the land contact between Russia and Germany and France, and be tough with Russia. They gave aid to Ukraine and helped Ukraine train its soldiers.
At present, Johnson’s ideas are more radical, but easier to implement.
France and Germany did not dare to say their goals directly, but only hinted at Ukraine and Russia to talk in a circuitous and obscure way, lacking enough decisiveness and responsibility. At this time, external assistance is needed.
Who will help Germany and France? Only Russia.
06 Putin assists
At the St. Petersburg Forum on the 17th, Putin said a lot.
One question is whether Ukraine should join the EU.
Putin said, “we will not object. Joining or not joining this economic union is their sovereign decision… It is their business, it is the business of the Ukrainian people.”
Putin explained, “unlike NATO, the EU is not a military alliance.” Of course, Putin himself is not optimistic about Ukraine’s accession to the EU. He said that if Ukraine joined the EU, it would only become a “semi colony” of western countries.
Putin’s statement is undoubtedly a cover for France and Germany.
In a sense, Russia has the same attitude as France and Germany. As Europe calms down, the West will at least partially lift the sanctions against Russia, which is conducive to improving Russia’s situation in the West.
Of course, the demands of Russia are different from those of France and Germany. Russia’s bottom line is that it hopes to legitimize its occupation of Crimea and, if possible, also occupy East Ukraine.
But to tell the truth, the war in Ukraine is not decided by Russia, France and Germany. The reason has been mentioned above. Here is a summary:
1. Ukraine itself favors the United States and Britain, and all key departments have been controlled.
2. Neighboring Poland and the three Baltic countries are desperately clinging to the thighs of the United States and Britain because of their fear of Russia.
3. Through the hegemony of public opinion, the United States and Britain have pushed anti Russia to the extreme in the west, and France and Germany dare not publicly persuade peace.
At the same time, it is impossible for Russia to give up its desire to occupy Ukrainian territory, and Ukraine itself cannot secede for peace. In short, the trend of normalization of war in Ukraine has not changed.
By the way, Putin’s statement embarrassed Medvedev.
Medvedev was pro western before. After the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, Medvedev became very tough; Every once in a while, they are strong against the West. After makron and Schultz visited Ukraine, Medvedev said that their visit was meaningless, and said that two years later, whether Ukraine exists is not certain.
However, Putin’s statement that “Ukraine can join the EU” is quite different from Medvedev’s, which is equivalent to embarrassing Medvedev in midair.
There are three interpretations of this matter: positive, negative and neutral:
According to the positive interpretation, Pu Mei and her husband have a tacit understanding of each other. One of them is white faced and the other is red faced. Medvedev may still take over from Putin (Medvedev recently became tough in order to move closer to Putin).
According to the reverse interpretation, Mei has been far away from Pu’s core circle and completely does not understand Pu’s ideas. His toughness is more like a drowning man grasping at a straw.
In terms of neutral interpretation, Pu doesn’t want anyone to guess his own ideas. He wants to show a unique attitude and lay the foundation for the next long-term governance.
07 a little thought
The current international relations have reached a turning point in history, that is, an era when some people have to fall down.
The so-called “worse than worse” means that when science and technology stagnates at this stage, a huge historical foam has enveloped the global village.
The so-called fall of someone means that the cards need to be reshuffled. Review the way the cards were shuffled in the 20th century:
The two rounds of hot war reshuffle brought down all major militarist countries.
A cold war reshuffle brought about drastic changes in Eastern Europe and the disintegration of the Soviet Union.
In each round of reshuffle, great powers fall in love and use their own flesh and blood to resolve the global village foam.
Now it is time to reshuffle. The EU is politically scattered and militarily kidnapped by the US led NATO. Only the economic integration link looks fragile. Personally, I believe that the reshuffle of this round of foam may eventually lead to the fall of the EU and resolve the crisis with its own flesh and blood.
The essence of macron and Schultz’s trip is self-help.
