Author: Li guangman source: Li guangman Bing Dian news review wechat official account ID: ligm-479210127 has been authorized to reprint
The summer of 2022 is a rare hot and high-temperature season in history, but for some countries, the summer of 2022 may still be a season worth remembering. Perhaps the winter of 2022 is a season that is cold to the heart. The cold air will penetrate the bottom of the heart and hit the viscera, leaving many countries nowhere to hide.
For the UK, the winter of 2022 may come earlier than the winter of 2021. According to the data of the International Monetary Fund, in the first quarter of 2022, the GDP of India, a former British colony, surpassed that of Britain, its former suzerain country, and became the fifth largest economy in the world, while the United Kingdom retreated to the sixth place. Although this does not mean that India’s overall strength and living standard exceeded that of the United Kingdom, it is still a historic change. For more than a hundred years, only Germany and one European country remain among the world’s top five economies, while there are three countries in Asia, Will this be an important landmark event in the decline of Europe?
On September 1, the London Evening Standard reported that in October this year, the energy expenditure of millions of British people will soar from 1971 pounds to 3549 pounds, and may rise even higher after that. Fitzpatrick, founder of ovo energy, said, “if we don’t use all the available time in the next 12 weeks to solve this problem, we will face an unprecedented winter, people will suffer from hunger and cold, and the British national health service will be overwhelmed by the health impact of the energy crisis.”
On September 6, the new British Prime Minister truss accepted the appointment of Queen Elizabeth at Balmoral Castle in Scotland instead of Buckingham Palace in London. The female prime minister who wanted to be the “Iron Lady” once clamored to destroy China and Russia with nuclear weapons. On the first day after his election, he accepted the invitation of Ukrainian President zebensky and prepared to go to Ukraine to meet Ze Sheng, who represents the political correctness of the West, However, before her visit to Ukraine, what she must face is probably how to solve the problem of the British people’s winter. Otherwise, the British people who are shivering and unable to survive this cold winter may oust this arrogant and ignorant female prime minister.
In fact, not only Britain but also the whole Europe is facing an extremely cold winter. In July, the inflation rate in the European Union was as high as 9.8%, Poland was 16.1%, Lithuania was 21.6%, Latvia was 21.3%, Estonia was 25.2%, and the Baltic countries, which are the most anti Russian countries, had inflation of more than 20% and were in the mire of high inflation.
The latest statistics show that in August, the CPI of the euro zone rose by 9.1% year-on-year, a record high, and energy prices rose by more than 38% in August. On August 26, Dutch natural gas futures, regarded as the benchmark price of European natural gas, hit a record high. This price is more than ten times that of the same period last year. On September 5, after Russia announced the indefinite closure of the beixi-1 natural gas pipeline, European natural gas prices soared by nearly 30% on the same day.
High inflation and high energy prices have put the whole of Europe in a powder keg, and large-scale demonstrations and protests may erupt at any time. On September 3, 70000 people poured into the streets of Prague, the capital of Czech Republic, to hold a large-scale demonstration. A striking language displayed in the procession was: “the best is given to Ukraine, and only two sweaters are left for us!” Yes, in the past, Europeans relied on cheap Russian natural gas to withstand the cold. In the winter of 2022, they may have to rely on two sweaters to keep warm.
Protests also broke out in Paris, France, where people shouted “macron! Poverty!” “Let’s leave NATO!” Protesters demanded that the government end high energy prices. On September 4, thousands of protesters marched in the western German city of Cologne, demanding that Germany stop providing support to Ukraine and lift the sanctions imposed on Russia earlier this year. In order to combat high inflation and high energy prices, Germany even proposed that only the hip, armpit, foot and groin should be washed when taking a bath.
Italian officials began to teach people how to save electricity and gas bills and reduce the discarding of expired foods that are still edible. The Italian food safety agency also listed a list of foods that are beyond the shelf life but still edible for the public. After calculating the accounts, the Italian media found that the cost of living of each family will rise by more than 3000 euros this year just because of the rise in food and energy prices.
I think that with the arrival of winter 2022, we will see increasingly large-scale protests and demonstrations in major European cities every weekend, which may become an effective way for Europeans to resist the severe cold in winter 2022.
Yes, this winter will definitely have a taste of banter for Europeans. Cold or not, the days will have to pass. Maybe the Russian Ukrainian war ends suddenly the next morning, and the Beixi natural gas pipeline starts sending gas again?
Europe has a hard time. What about Japan? Recently, Japan has faced two of its biggest headaches. One is that under the sniping of the US dollar, the Japanese yen has retreated again, falling from 101 at the end of 2020 to 144, a drop of nearly 30%, which has further weakened Japan’s national strength. The other is that in July 2022, Japan, together with Germany, France, South Korea and other manufacturing powers, had a trade deficit. In particular, the trade deficit with China was a thunderbolt for Japan, which foreshadowed that Japan would enter a new decade of stagflation, and perhaps Japan would enter a harsh winter that it could never get out of.
On June 30, Putin signed a decree announcing the establishment of a new company to take over all rights and obligations of the “Sakhalin 2” oil and gas project, which means that the 12.5% and 10% shares of Mitsui and Mitsubishi listed companies in Sakhalin 2 will be taken over by Russia. Sakhalin-2 project has 100 million tons of oil deposits and more than 400 billion cubic meters of natural gas deposits. After the project is put into operation, it can solve 4% of the global demand for liquefied natural gas and 9% of Japan’s demand for liquefied natural gas. Now Russia confiscates Japan’s shares, casting a shadow on Japan’s future energy supply.
Another thing that makes Japan uncomfortable is that the sea part of the “dongfang-2022” military exercise is held in the sea of Japan, the land exercise is in Russia’s Kamchatka region, and part of the shooting range is in the South Kuril Islands (Japan called the four northern islands), which makes Japan very unhappy. During his inspection in Kamchatka frontier region, Putin ordered Russia to suspend the convenience agreement signed with Japan on Japanese citizens’ visit to the South Kuril Islands, thus canceling the visa free travel of Japanese people to the island to carry out business. He wanted to completely Russian the South Kuril Islands, which made Japan swallow a bitter fruit.
Japan, which was once called by many Chinese to have the spirit of craftsmanship, environmental protection, clean enough to drink the water in the toilet, and clean enough to lie down in the operating room, has also become ferocious. According to media reports, the factories of Japan’s iron works have discharged toxic cyanide beyond the standard 39 times from June to July 2022. Japan’s Tokyo Electric Power Company is digging an undersea tunnel for the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant to discharge nuclear wastewater. It is expected to start discharging nuclear wastewater into the sea around next spring.
This is the Japan that some Japanese elites have in mind. They are not only preparing to expand their arsenals and carry out all-round military armaments this winter, but also secretly digging tunnels to secretly drain nuclear waste water into the sea.
At the same time, Japan was also caught in an extremely serious epidemic before winter. On September 6, Japan added more than 110000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in a single day, and 320 new deaths on that day. On September 1, Japan added 150000 new confirmed cases and 303 new deaths on that day. Now, Japan has experienced serious hospital resource tension and runs. Many seriously ill infected people can not be treated in time. Japan is paying the price for their lying flat. Although the US and European media no longer report infection data and death data, this does not mean that infection and death have not occurred. The epidemic is not far away, and infection or reinfection and high mortality are still occurring in large numbers. It is just that they pretend not to see or pretend not to happen.
It has been three years since the outbreak of the epidemic. When another winter comes, countries like the United States, Europe and Japan still act as if nothing had happened three years ago. It is no longer important to be infected, or not infected, or dead, or not dead. The key is that they should pretend to feel free and happy.
When the winter of 2022 comes, the only thing that Japan can show is its attitude toward China. Japan not only participates in the US sanctions against China’s high-end chips, but also regards Taiwan as Japanese territory on the Taiwan issue. Even Americans now seldom say that Taiwan’s business is the business of the United States, but Japan talks about Taiwan’s business as Japan’s business. It is obviously a rhythm of death.
Europeans blame all the disasters on Russia’s military action against Ukraine. Indeed, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is evolving into a war that changes the world pattern. Now almost everyone will ask, can Russia still persist? How long can Russia persist?
On September 7, Putin delivered a 37 minute speech at the Eastern Economic Forum. The most impressive sentence in his speech was, “we have not lost anything, and we will not lose anything.”
What about Russia now? In the past, some Chinese scholars thought that Russia, whose GDP could not even catch up with that of China’s Guangdong Province, could not win the military confrontation with the entire NATO and would collapse soon. However, Russia’s performance obviously hit the face of these so-called experts and scholars who only believe in GDP. After more than seven months of protracted war, Russia has not fallen or collapsed, but Europe has gradually lost its grip. In the winter of 2022, is it harder for Russia or harder for Europe and NATO countries?
After Russia implemented the “ruble settlement order”, although the Russian ruble is still standing and the international oil price is still around $90 per barrel, Russia is indeed facing great difficulties, and this winter is also sad. I think Russia will face at least the following major tests this winter. First, the whole western world is still imposing the most severe sanctions on Russia in history. Russia is trying to bully the whole western world with the strength of one country. This is a contest of strength, endurance and will. Can the Russian economy withstand the pressure of all-round Western sanctions? Second, the Russian Ukrainian war has fallen into a protracted war of attrition. Behind Ukraine are the United States, NATO and the western world. Can Russia’s national strength withstand a protracted war of attrition? Third, under the comprehensive and continuous blockade of the whole western world, the living conditions of Russians will inevitably be affected. Can Russians maintain their high support rate for Putin? As long as these three aspects hold out, Russia will certainly be able to survive this winter.
Recently, Russia made two important decisions. The first was on September 2 and September 5, when Gazprom twice announced that beixi-1 was shut down due to equipment. The second was on September 6, when Gazprom announced that it would change the payment method for natural gas exports to China from euros and dollars to rubles and Renminbi, which was almost the first shot of currency uprising against petrodollar hegemony.
I think, with a huge nuclear arsenal, food and energy, and the support of the United and brave Russian people, what else can Russia worry about? What are the insurmountable difficulties? What other enemy can’t be defeated?
Really, the Russian Ukrainian war is changing the world. The United States, Europe and Japan are all changing. The Russian Ukrainian war has shown us the resilience of the Russian nation.
What about the United States? At present, it seems that the United States is hanging around the world. The dollar Damocles sword held by the United States is hanging over the heads of all countries in the world. It seems that it can attack any country. On September 5, the US dollar index rose sharply and broke through the 110 mark. In recent decades, the US dollar index has only broken through 110 twice, the first time in 1985 and the second time in 2001. Now, no matter the euro, pound sterling, Japanese yen, Korean won to RMB and some other countries’ currencies have fallen sharply under the crazy attack of the US dollar. The Japanese yen has fallen below 144, the US dollar has stabilized at 1:1 against the euro, and the RMB has dropped as low as 6.98. Everyone is asking, will the exchange rate of the people’s currency against the US dollar break 7?
Careful observation will reveal that almost all economic disasters and financial disasters in the world over the past few decades are related to the tidal cycle of the US dollar. The Latin American financial crisis, the Asian financial crisis, and the Russian financial crisis. If you look at countries like Brazil, Argentina, Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines lying on the beach after being hit by the US dollar, and see how their development and efforts in the past decades were bruised by the impact of the US dollar overnight and finally struggled on the beach, you will feel incomparable anger, silence, and sadness.
Now the periodic tidal movement of the dollar is starting again. Who is the target this time? Is Sri Lanka lying on the beach? Is it Europe dragged into the conflict between Russia and Ukraine by the United States? Japan and Korea? Is it Russia that is engaged in a protracted war? Maybe both, but I think the ultimate goal of the United States is China, because as long as it doesn’t cross China, it doesn’t make much sense for any country to lie down, because only China is really capable of strategic confrontation with the United States.
But the United States is facing two big problems. One is that high inflation may trigger an economic recession, and the other is that the struggle between Biden and trump may trigger a civil war.
At present, US inflation is still at a high level of more than 8%, and it is still impossible to judge whether it has peaked. Some economists and think tanks analyze that the US economy is entering a recession cycle. In the first half of 2022, the US economy has experienced negative growth for two consecutive quarters. Of course, the Federal Reserve does not think that the US economy has entered a recession.
The struggle between Biden and trump is not only between the two of them, but also between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party of the United States, and more importantly, between the big capital group and the small and medium bourgeoisie of the United States. Not long ago, the CIA of the United States copied Trump’s home in the sea lake manor, which shows that Biden will not stop until trump is killed and sent to prison.
On September 1, Biden delivered a tough speech at the Independence Hall in Philadelphia, which lambasted trump and those who supported the “make America great again” agenda (“Maga”). He said that trump and “Maga Republicans” represent a kind of “extremism” that threatens the foundation of the US Republic. They ignore the US Constitution, do not believe in the rule of law, do not believe in the will of the people, and want to overturn democratic elections, which makes equality and democracy under attack. They incite political violence and threaten the individual rights and pursuit of justice, the rule of law and even the soul of the country.
This speech, called “the soul of America”, is a declaration of war issued by Biden and the Democratic Party against trump and the Republican Party. It marks that the United States has entered an era of complete political break, complete opposition and uncompromising. The United States has entered a civil war at the soul level.
At present, the United States is deeply involved in various problems that are difficult to solve, such as religious problems, racial problems, crime and violence, immigration problems, gun problems, drug problems, and abortion rights. Coupled with the epidemic and high inflation, almost none of these problems can be solved by the government.
Yes, now American politicians are not worried about the people’s jobs, food and real estate, but about where the soul of the United States is and where the United States, which has lost its soul, will go. Then we ask, does America still have a soul?
What about China? 2022 is also an extremely difficult year for China, which is interwoven with natural disasters, the epidemic and the economic downturn. On August 22, Ren Zhengfei, President of Huawei, put forward in an article published at an internal forum that the global economy would decline for a long time, that Huawei should take living as its main program in the future, and that the cold should be passed on to everyone. Although this is only an internal speech, it still brings a chill to the Chinese stock market.
In the summer of 2022, we experienced almost the hottest summer on record. 40 degrees is no longer unusual. 41 degrees, 42 degrees, 43 degrees, and even 44 degrees are predicted by the weather station from time to time. The main and tributaries of the Yangtze River expose the bottom of the river during the summer flood season. The Yangtze River section in Wuhan even exposes the small road in the middle of the river. Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake have become grasslands and beaches. Serious mountain fires have occurred in Chongqing. Due to the serious drought, hydropower has been the mainstay Sichuan, which is responsible for the transmission of electricity to the east of China, has suffered from a serious power shortage. In order to protect civil use, almost all industries have been ordered to limit power. In the autumn, another 6.8-magnitude earthquake struck Kangding, Sichuan, killing more than 80 people.
In 2022, the epidemic has been banned in China. From Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing to Xinjiang, Tibet, Hainan, Guizhou and Sichuan, compared with other countries, China has implemented the strictest control at the lowest cost with the purpose of being responsible to the people. Although it has paid a certain price, it is still the country with the best prevention and control effect in the world. No country attaches more importance to the lives and health of its people than China.
Compared with other major economies, China’s economy was the best in the first half of 2022. Under the situation of trade deficits among traditional manufacturing powers, China’s manufacturing industry and international trade achieved gratifying results.
Of course, China’s economy has also been experiencing pain. Small and medium-sized enterprises and real estate are in a difficult situation. Some enterprises are forced to lay off workers, the number of unemployed people is increasing, college students are difficult to find jobs, and cities are under increasing employment pressure from college graduates.
At present, the international environment China is facing is very complex and grim. The United States continues to engage in military provocations against China in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. At the same time, it launches rounds of high-tech and chip wars against China in an attempt to lock China up through high-tech and high-end chip Wars, making it impossible for China to achieve strategic breakthrough.
Nevertheless, we are still full of confidence in China’s economy and development. Although all countries are experiencing difficulties, China is undoubtedly the country with the best performance. Although the United States keeps attacking and strangling China and wants to kill China, looking up, China is still the most promising country in the world with the best development prospects.
Yes, although the United States is still far from complete recession, its military hegemony, scientific and technological hegemony, financial hegemony and public opinion hegemony have all begun to shake. Russia has fired the first shot at American hegemony, Europe and Japan are in a deep stagflation crisis, Fumio Kishida can’t save Japan, truss can’t save Britain, the old world order begins to collapse, and the new world order begins to be established.
Although the winter of 2022 has not yet arrived, it will be a very cold season for all countries, especially for European countries.
Will the Russian Ukrainian war end this winter? Will the United States and Europe enter an economic recession this winter? Will the United States have a soul war this winter? Will China get out of its economic difficulties this winter?
Although the United States and the West are ferocious, although this winter will be very cold, and although the world situation is very grim, there is no need to be too pessimistic. We have survived the summer of 2022, so why should we be afraid of the winter of 2022?
Besides, if winter comes, can spring be far behind?