The bull market in commodities has peaked!

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Author: Kafka is busy source: outsider’s horizon (id:hooyar_380097485)

People are always reluctant to believe in change. Why?

Geopolitics can distort the supply-demand relationship of some commodities, but remember that ultimately the supply-demand relationship determines the price of commodities.

I always like to judge the overall trend of commodities by the price trend of copper.

There is a truth here. Copper is controlled by international old money, but the largest demand comes from China.

Unlike oil, copper has high storage requirements and can play the trick of delivering negative oil prices.

The above figure shows the monthly trend of international copper prices. You can use copper to cover all bulk commodities, which is inexplicably consistent.

The international copper price has been at a high level for one year and has been unable to break through. Recently, there is a faint trend of killing.

The recently released consumer confidence index in the United States has been declining for three consecutive months. There is also a very important commodity inventory index, which is now starting to set a record.

As I said last year, a large part of the rise in prices in the United States is due to supply chain problems.

Let’s imagine what you would do if you ordered goods from store a on Taobao, and as a result, store a could not deliver goods because of the congestion at the wharf? We must place more orders with several merchants at the same time.

The statistical data that eventually appeared at the retailers showed that there was a great demand. The retailers were also frightened by the empty warehouses, so they quickly doubled their orders to the wholesalers and passed them layer by layer. The pressure of this terminal came to the factory.

The factory had to increase production, so the upstream commodity suppliers felt pressure and began to raise prices.

This is the truth that the epidemic has led to a surge in commodities.

When the logistics returned to normal, you received a lot of goods on Taobao. Well, some people may hoard, but most people still choose to return them.

In the United States, it is quite convenient and protected by law.

So when the ports in the United States were not blocked, the wholesale retailers received their own increased orders of various commodities. Everyone was so stupid that they had to store them in the warehouse.

In this case, will they still place orders with the factory?

Before, the factory feared that commodities would continue to soar and hoarded a lot of raw materials. Will they hoard ahead of time now?

Well, another unfortunate addition is the U.S. consumer confidence index.

This wave of American flooding has made the rich richer and the poor poorer. The disposable income of the middle class has shrunk in the face of prices. Things are difficult, so everyone begins to reduce all kinds of consumption.

After all, it is impossible for the US government to print money every day and distribute it to everyone for indiscriminate consumption.

Whether the U.S. economy is good or not depends on the recent increase in hate killings in the United States.

In the past, the pattern of the world was that Europe and the United States were responsible for inhumane crazy consumption. We were responsible for working day and night, and resource countries were responsible for selling all kinds of raw materials.

What are the consequences of this huge inventory pressure and declining consumption power in the United States?

If there were no power cuts at the end of last year and no epidemic situation delayed production this year, do you think that only American wholesalers and retailers can carry the large amount of inventory?

After the epidemic in 2021, there will be a wave of retaliatory commodity consumption in the world.

In 2021, the total volume of Global trade reached a record $28.5 trillion, an increase of 25% over 2020 and 13% higher than that before the outbreak of COVID-19 in 2019.

However, the global GDP growth did not match this huge total trade volume, which means that the speed of spending money exceeded the speed of making money. In the vernacular, it is called ahead of consumption.

Your credit card is maxed out. Do you have to tighten your belt next month and try to save money and pay off your debts?

Of course, my statement is certainly not rigorous enough, but the general meaning is there. Anyway, the consumption frenzy brought about by the global water release can no longer be done. This is the main problem facing the economy now.

So why do you think that commodity prices are going to go up beyond the coffin?

Recently, OPEC has also begun to change its mouth and agreed to increase crude oil production. Is it really just because the United States makes a good phone call and moves the oil countries?

There are so many smart people in the world, just as there are in the Middle East. Even if they are not smart enough, they can pay a lot of money for smart brains to advise them.

OPEC is conspiring to pull up international oil prices and form a monopoly supplier to facilitate the control of global oil prices.

When the market is bullish, of course, we are not willing to sell more oil. But if the real economic data have started to slap our faces, what will we do?

We have never sold a large amount of oil, but we have all bought stocks. Are we reluctant to sell when stocks rise and grow well? Both main and retail investors will be reluctant to sell. However, when there is a change in business operation and a danger of imminent collapse, the main players must have been the first to get the news, but the market must remain calm, and may even fool retail investors to jump in.

You can say it’s despicable, but all those who manipulate the market play it that way.

Think about the crude oil derivatives that were tricked into buying at a high price in 2019. Why are the buyers always losing money? Will people tell you a lot of data? Do you know the use of domestic data? If the pricing power is in the hands of others, what can you do?

However, in any case, all the ways of manipulating prices should finally take a correct stance in front of the actual demand.

The reason why the EU dares to impose patched comprehensive sanctions on Russian oil is definitely not that it wants to commit suicide, but that it has already cooperated with the big dog in the Middle East, and may be able to get a preferential price.

The world’s energy supply chain may be facing a comprehensive restructuring. Russia will have to turn to the East, and then the Middle East will be sold more to Europe and the United States.

This big move of position adjustment will certainly have a long-term impact on global energy prices.

In the short term, it must be short sellers who have the advantage.

So do you think the logic of many stock markets is the same as before? There are also people who keep singing about coal and nonferrous metals.

Of course, it is not ruled out that individual stocks will rise in the short term. There is certainly no big opportunity for the long-term trend.

What is the stock market speculation? It’s a big chance. It’s a chance under the probability. If you know that the chance is not big, you have to rush inside. Isn’t that taking your own money at risk?

Why not be angry with yourself?

I still suggest that you make a plan before you choose to buy. Do you take the short-term, middle-term or long-term?

What exactly is your position plan? If you don’t have a plan or a good idea, you’d rather not move around. It’s just that you’ve lost a chance to make money, but you won’t fall into the wrong bucket for nothing!

Recently, my a is definitely very strong. Many people say that there is no quantity, but if it is really large, then we should pay attention to it.

Very simply, putting a lot of money means that the long and short positions exchange chips with each other. The profit taking positions in front of them have all run away. The off-site money takers have all come in. No one has taken the offer any more. Only by smashing them down can we make room for them.

In the same sentence, even if there is no index market, the market of individual stocks is quite good. June continues to be a season of demon stocks.

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