The following article comes from Wu Zhiguan’s opinion, and the author Pinran
The 20th Shangri-La Dialogue opened in Singapore on the 2nd. Before the opening dinner of the evening incense ceremony on the 2nd, the scene of United States Secretary of Defense Austin shaking hands with Chinese State Councilor and Secretary of Defense Li Shangfu attracted extensive attention from foreign media and analysts.
According to videos released by foreign media reporters on social media, Austin and Li Shangfu smiled and nodded, shaking hands for nearly 10 seconds. Many officials and journalists present took out their phones to record this scene.
On the evening of the 2nd, Pentagon spokesperson Patrick Reid said in a statement that Austin and Li Shangfu had a brief conversation and shook hands at the opening dinner of the incense ceremony, but the two sides did not engage in “substantive exchanges”.
The statement also said, “The US Department of Defense advocates maintaining open military to military communication channels with China and will continue to seek meaningful military to military discussions at multiple levels to responsibly manage this relationship
According to foreign media, Austin took the initiative to shake hands with Li Shangfu at that time. The author believes that there are three possibilities for Austin’s move:
One is the etiquette of meeting. Images on social media show that Chinese and American defense ministers were sitting at the same table at a dinner party, and Austin used this handshake to pay a ceremonial tribute to China’s new defense minister, Li Shangfu.
In addition, Austin, a retired general of the US Army and former commander of the United States Central Command, is a soldier. This handshake may also reflect mutual respect between soldiers.
The second is to seek communication. The US government has recently issued intensive signals of willingness to strengthen communication and dialogue with China, and restoring contact and dialogue between the two defense departments and military forces is a priority for the US side. Although China has made it clear that there will be no formal talks between the defense ministers of the two countries during this incense ceremony, Austin still hopes to use this handshake to express his willingness to communicate with China again.
The third is to act on occasion. The handshake took place in the main venue before the start of the incense reception dinner. Prime Minister of Australia Albanese was about to deliver a keynote speech, and the scene was crowded. Austin undoubtedly hopes to use this handshake to convey a signal to senior officials and media reporters from various countries present that the United States is willing to strengthen communication and manage the crisis with China, demonstrating the so-called “responsible handling of relations with China” aspect to the outside world.
The handshake between Austin and Li Shangfu quickly caught the attention of the media and analysts. The Straits Times of Singapore reported that the Chinese and US defense ministers did not have formal talks on the first day of the incense ceremony, but there was a friendly handshake.
Analysts such as Carl Bildt, former Swedish Prime Minister and co chairman of the European Commission on Foreign Relations, and Derek Grossman, senior defense analyst at Rand Corporation in the United States, have expressed cautious and positive attitudes towards this: in any case, the two sides have at least shook hands.
The reason why this handshake has attracted external attention is, on the one hand, that in the context of the severe challenges faced by the overall relationship between China and the United States, the relationship between the two militaries is directly related to regional and even global security and stability; On the other hand, unlike previous incense fairs, the defense ministers of China and the United States did not arrange formal talks at this incense fair, and some US media had previously hyped that “China categorically rejects the goodwill of the US to ease relations”.
Regarding the reason why China has refused the Sino US Defense Ministers’ Meeting this time, Defense Ministry spokesperson Tan Kefei said:
Dialogue cannot be without principles, and communication cannot be without a bottom line. The current difficulties in military communication between the two armies are entirely the responsibility of the US side. On the one hand, the US side insists on strengthening communication, but on the other hand, it disregards China’s concerns and creates artificial obstacles, seriously damaging mutual trust between the two armies. This is not the proper attitude towards communication
What are the obstacles between China and the United States?
One obstacle is that Li Shangfu is still on the US government’s sanctions list.
In September 2018, the US government imposed sanctions on Li Shangfu, who was then the Minister of Equipment Development of the Central Military Commission, in accordance with the Anti US Enemy with Sanctions Act. The relevant sanctions have not been lifted to this day.
Without correcting this unreasonable behavior by the US, China cannot accept the proposal of a formal meeting between the Chinese and US defense ministers.
The US sanctions against Li Shangfu have also been criticized domestically. Even Elbridge Colby, the deputy assistant defense minister during the Trump administration and the Republican hardline representative to China, admitted to this:
The United States should not sanction important officials of major powers, as the cost is too high and the benefits are too small. This is a vivid example of sanctions undermining domestic policies.
The second obstacle is that the United States is doing one thing at a time, and a series of recent actions have led to difficulties and challenges in communication between the two armies.
In August last year, then Speaker of the United States House of Representatives Pelosi visited Taiwan, which led to the cancellation of three mechanisms involving military exchanges between China and the United States as a counter measure. In November last year, shortly after the Bali meeting between China and the United States, the defense ministers of China and the United States held talks in Cambodia. Both sides believed that “the two armies should seriously implement the important consensus reached by the two heads of state, maintain communication and contact, strengthen crisis management, and strive to maintain regional security and stability.
But thereafter, the US demonstrated a lack of sincerity in communication and exchange with China through a series of practical actions: in December last year and March this year, the US State Council approved four arms sales to Taiwan with a total value of over 1.2 billion US dollars; In February of this year, the US shot down a Chinese civilian unmanned airship that was out of control; In the same month, anonymous US officials stated that they would send more US troops to Taiwan to assist in training; In April, the US arranged for Tsai Ing wen to “transit” and engage in political activities in the US.
In addition, the so-called “Operation freedom of navigation” by the United States against China, the crossing of the Taiwan Strait by ships and aircraft, and the approaching reconnaissance activities have not been restrained. On May 26th, during the routine training of the Chinese Navy formation in the South China Sea, a US military RC-135 reconnaissance aircraft deliberately entered the training area to carry out reconnaissance interference.
The American dialect is inconsistent, and China cannot accept its approach of exerting pressure and containment in action and seeking communication verbally.
The third obstacle is that there are certain cognitive differences between China and the United States on issues such as communication between the two armies, crisis management, and the establishment of “barriers”.
The experience of the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union has given the United States a strong sense of crisis management and control in the competition among major powers. In the view of the United States, in the context of intensified competition between the two countries, the two militaries should maintain smooth communication channels to reduce the risk of conflict. The Biden administration has repeatedly emphasized the need to establish a “barrier” for competition between China and the United States, and achieving smooth communication channels between the two countries and the high-level military is the foundation and prerequisite of the “barrier”.
However, when Americans talk about “guardrails,” they only insist on using technical means such as rules and mechanisms to avoid accidents and escalating crises. For the United States, it seems that as long as operational control is established and communication at the strategic level is added, similar “fence based provocation” can be achieved without truly responding to China’s concerns about the US actions that harm China’s national security interests.
The Chinese side certainly does not accept this.
The “barrier” understood by China should be more established at the political level, such as core interests that cannot be touched. Compared to establishing a “guardrail”, China emphasizes more on promoting the return of China US relations to the right track.
A vivid metaphor is that if both parties are on the wrong track, the “guardrail” can only make both parties go further and further in the opposite direction.
In the development process of Sino US military relations, both sides have reached important consensus and achieved positive interaction. For example, in 2014, the two countries signed the Memorandum of Understanding on Establishing a Mechanism for Mutual Notification of Confidence Measures in Major Military Operations and the Memorandum of Understanding on the Safety Code of Conduct for Sea Air Encounters. The Chinese Navy was also invited to participate in military exercises around the Pacific in 2014 and 2016.
However, the development of military relations between the two countries requires a good political atmosphere as a guarantee. With the overall deterioration of Sino US relations in recent years, military relations between the two countries will inevitably be negatively affected.
Austin repeatedly made unfounded accusations against China in his speech on the 3rd. This proves that the US has still not corrected its wrong words and actions.
Returning to the statement of the spokesperson for the Ministry of Defense, Tan Kefei, “China attaches great importance to developing Sino US military relations and conducting communication at all levels. In fact, the military contacts and exchanges between the two sides have not been interrupted… Currently, the United States needs to demonstrate sincerity and correct mistakes through practical actions, creating necessary conditions and atmosphere for communication and exchange between the two sides