This article is reproduced from Niu tanqin (ID: bullpiano) with authorization by Niu tanqin
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From February 21 to 28, 1972, US President Nixon’s historic visit to China shocked the world. China and the United States quickly reconciled and joined hands to deal with the Soviet Union. The cold war pattern was completely rewritten. This is also known as the “week of changing the world”.
This year marks the 50th anniversary of Nixon’s visit to China. History is white clouds and grey dogs. Too many things have changed.
But the coming week, to some extent, is another week that will change the world, with at least three major events.
First, the SCO summit in Samarkand.
Samarkand, a famous city on the Silk Road, has witnessed many international events.
From September 15 to 16, the SCO summit will be held here. This is a very special summit, especially considering the current international background, the leaders of China, Russia, India and other countries will meet face to face again.
One key point is that SCO will expand its capacity.
No surprise, Iran will officially become a member of SCO.
In addition, according to media reports, the number of Associate Member States will increase to Belarus, the number of observer states will increase to Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cambodia and Nepal, the number of dialogue partners will increase to Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Maldives, and Syria and Israel will also submit applications, etc.
The Samarkand summit will undoubtedly be a major milestone in the development of SCO.
The Chinese side has also announced that from September 14 to 16, the supreme leaders will attend the SCO summit and pay state visits to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
That means he will meet with Putin, modi and other leaders. This is also the first overseas visit of China’s top leaders since the outbreak of the epidemic in the century, and also a historic gathering of the SCO summit.
His first stop was Kazakhstan. Diplomacy is nothing trivial. For the first time, it has more profound meaning. Why Kazakhstan?
Quite simply, China Kazakhstan relations are constantly deepening. As we all know, the first black swan in the world this year was the turmoil in Kazakhstan. President Tokayev quickly calmed the situation, and China expressed its support at the first time.
The past 30 years have been the “golden 30 years” of China Kazakhstan relations; Then next, there will be another “golden 30 years”. Of course, this golden relationship is not only with Kazakhstan. Now, Central Asia is basically a friend of China and a member of the SCO.
What is an opportunity?
This is the occasion.
In the next few days, the world will focus on Central Asia and Samarkand.
The second thing is that the situation on the Russian Ukrainian battlefield has reappeared.
I have talked a lot these days, and everyone has paid special attention to it. The war in eastern Ukraine started again, but this time, the Ukrainian army launched a major counter offensive, and the Russian army was retreating substantially. The vanguard of the Ukrainian army has broken through the Ukrainian Russian border.
The situation on the battlefield has suddenly reversed. Why is this so?
In my previous articles, I talked about the Ukrainian army’s strategy of “feigning East and attacking West”, the high-tech weapons provided by the west, the Russian army’s blunders in pulling the crotch, and the possible military unfaithfulness. But a friend specially reminded me yesterday that American intelligence!
In modern warfare, what we see is close combat on the battlefield, but what we can’t see is intense intelligence warfare. In particular, in addition to advanced weapons, the United States has certainly provided a large amount of information for the Ukrainian army, and even information on even minor changes of the Russian army. This is a major test that the Russian army must face.
But these are not the focus of this article.
What I want to say is that in the coming week, the battle will continue, which is certainly the focus of the world’s attention; The gains and losses on the battlefield will determine the future direction of Russia and Ukraine.
Can the Ukrainian army’s counter offensive continue? Will the Russian army really fall into a passive position?
I don’t know, but what I do know is that this conflict, which has lasted for half a year, is starting to be more intense, and more people will fall in a pool of blood.
The third thing is the grand state funeral of the queen of England.
This is not only a grand state funeral in Britain, but also an unprecedented gathering in the western world.
The time is September 19. Not surprisingly, US President Biden, French President macron, German Chancellor Scholz, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, and so on will all attend the funeral.
However, because it is the Queen’s funeral, Japanese emperor Naruhito will also attend it, and many royal families in Europe will also attend it. In addition, considering the historical origin, leaders of dozens of Commonwealth countries will also go to London to pay their final respects to the queen.
Indeed, Queen Elizabeth II of Britain is a historical figure. As a virtual monarch, although she does not hold the power of Britain’s domestic and foreign affairs, she has become an outstanding representative of Britain’s soft power.
When she ascended the throne in 1952, the British Prime Minister was Churchill, the American president was Truman, and the Soviet leader was Stalin. During her 70 years in office, she witnessed the changes in the world, the gradual transformation of Britain, and her gradual aging
The funeral was her last honor, but for the Western leaders who attended the funeral, it was even more an opportunity for them to collude and cooperate in another secret meeting.
When Biden goes to London this time, he will definitely hold his first meeting with the new British Prime Minister truss; Fumio Kishida will visit the United States immediately after attending the London funeral. You can also see the subtle interaction between Britain and France, the old enemies, the various enmities between Britain and the EU, and the complex feelings of the Commonwealth countries towards Britain
Funeral diplomacy can sometimes change the world. This funeral is undoubtedly more historic.
Of course, things happen every day in this world. In addition to these three major events, in the coming week, we will also see the situation on the peninsula, the struggle between Greece and Türkiye, the turmoil in South America and Africa, and various small moves of the United States
Finally, what do you think?
It’s better to be superficial.
First, this is a century game.
I remember there is a special political term: the great game, which refers to the struggle between the British Empire and tsarist Russia for Central Asia from the mid-19th century to the early 20th century.
However, the current big game is certainly not limited to Central Asia, but affects the entire Eurasian continent.
Therefore, in the past two years, we have witnessed too many dazzling events: the United States’ hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan, Central Asian countries flying black swans from time to time, and further west, there are fierce conflicts between Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as the ongoing Russian Ukrainian war, as well as various struggles between old Europe and new Europe, and between the United States, Russia and Europe
The world is undergoing great changes that have not been seen in a century, and the Eurasian continent is also undergoing major changes, which reminds people of the concept of “World Island”.
The founder of this concept is British strategist Mackinder. He proposed that the Eurasian continent and Africa connected to it are actually a “World Island”. When the “World Island” is covered by the railway network, a powerful continental country will dominate this vast land.
Some people have concluded that Mackinder’s thoughts can be summarized into three famous sayings: “first, whoever rules Eastern Europe rules the hinterland of the mainland; second, whoever rules the hinterland of the mainland rules the world island; third, whoever rules the world island rules the world.”
Mackinder’s view is difficult to break away from the limitations of that era. It is not necessarily only a powerful country, but also a hegemonic thinking of the West. However, the emergence of high-speed rail is indeed making the Eurasian continent more closely connected. The “World Island” is more like an island than before, and has a far-reaching impact on world geopolitics.
This is even more testing the game level of leaders of various countries.
Second, we are on the right side of history.
I see that because of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, many friends are red in the face. Some support Russia and some sympathize with Ukraine. Because of different preferences, there are too many fallacies in the news spread.
Many people also asked me my stance?
I am very simple. We must stand on the right side of history and on the just and progressive side of mankind. Therefore, we can see that our country also generally maintains a neutral position on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. We are friends with Russia and Ukraine, and we are trying to persuade peace and promote talks in our own way.
China is not the west, and China cannot be Belarus. China is China. China has its own national interests. This neutral and detached attitude is also the common position of many emerging countries.
Peace is really precious. Looking back a few years later, what are the reasons for so many dead lives? What did you get? It’s so sad.
Third, we are witnessing the final glory of Britain.
The deceased is the greatest. This is the last glory of Queen Elizabeth II of England. But I think that in Britain after this, such experiences and scenes should not exist again.
In fact, after mourning, there is more reflection.
Will the three British Islands still be the three British Islands?
Certainly, more and more Commonwealth countries, including Australia and New Zealand, will bid farewell to the British royal family and eventually move towards republicanism.
More and more former British colonies will certainly be unrelenting and demand that Britain and the British royal family apologize and compensate for the bloody colonization in those years.
The queen of England is respected, but we can’t forget all the evil deeds of the British Empire in slave trafficking and colonial plunder because of her elegance, grace and status as a virtual monarch. It’s true that blood and dirty things are dripping in every pore. In addition, after the British left, they were always good at leaving all kinds of troubles, in India, Pakistan, Africa, the Middle East
This is the end of an era. A week that changed history is definitely not just a week.
History is history after all. No matter how powerful people are, they will eventually return to the dust. No matter who they are, they will always return them.