Author: Kafka is busy source: outsider’s horizon (id:hooyar_380097485)
On the 12th, the euro once fell below $1. Many people asked me what I thought.
What do you think? I said about the euro three years ago that the euro is now moving towards the script of the dollar arrangement.
An epidemic has made the weak dollar credit even worse. The United States can give up everything, only this dollar interest, because the financial capital group kidnapped the country, and even made everything in politics, military and the country become the service agency of the dollar.
The so-called consumerist economic structure developed in the past to meet the expansion of the US dollar has been made impossible by the global supply chain after the epidemic.
The United States needs a stronger dollar to survive for itself, but after being kidnapped by the dollar, the United States gradually lost the power of the earth hegemony, so the dollar based on absolute hegemony has been unable to control global commodity transactions.
After playing with globalization for so many years, we all know that globalization can work only when there is a unified monetary standard for trade. It was originally the US dollar. However, the US dollar printing machine is too difficult to operate. It has hurt everyone once in 2008, but I didn’t expect the epidemic to be even more outrageous.
The dollar is the global reserve currency, which means that the world must pay for the abuse of dollars.
Therefore, all countries are trying to find ways, and countries such as Russia and Iran have even started an energy trading plan in which the euro replaces the US dollar.
It’s nothing to plan like this. The United States cannot handle the world by itself. It needs allies. The subtle historical relationship between Europe and the United States and the so-called flesh and blood financial and economic cooperation relationship between them are the basis of natural allies.
After World War II, Europe was generally poor and faced strong military pressure from the Soviet Union, so Europe ceded part of its economic and financial sovereignty and sought military protection from the United States.
For decades, the huge military expenditure of the United States is tantamount to a disguised subsidy to Europe, and Europe also helped the United States at the most dangerous moment of the dollar credit crisis, which led to the counter attack in the 1980s and the feat of deceiving the Soviet Union.
So after the introduction of the euro, although the currency itself has great problems, because there is only a unified currency, no unified finance, no unified governance, sooner or later, there will be big problems.
Within the euro zone, rich countries suck blood from poor countries. When things happen, rich countries throw the pot and poor countries rot. this is the origin of the European debt crisis.
But even so, the world still needs the euro, because everyone wants to find a currency that can compete with the dollar without being publicly boycotted or even crushed by the dollar.
In the week K of the euro exchange rate trend chart, my yellow line indicates that this period is from the outbreak of the epidemic to the beginning of 2021. Because the printing of money in Europe is a little more restrained than that in the United States, the euro has appreciated significantly and the dollar has depreciated during this period.
Please remember, during this period, the president of the United States is trump. This great Sheikh likes to play isolationism. He developed in the United States behind closed doors, reduced his involvement in world affairs, and even expressed considerable friendship to Putin the great.
This has led to a reversal of the world’s wealth, from the United States, which is likely to become a world island, to Europe, the center of the old world.
Think about it. A few years ago, why did rich Chinese businessmen headed by boss Li copy the bottom of Europe?
People deeply believe that the old world center is more reliable than the world island. As long as the world is free of war and strife, Europe can finally get back the so-called ideological voice, which means that the valuation will return, at least the euro will go through the appreciation channel, and the United States will inevitably face decline after the United States dollar loses its world currency status.
In addition, there is another meaning. The cost of the global governance model played by the United States is getting higher and higher. Trump is an honest man. He directly shows his cards and clearly tells you that I can’t bear it. Therefore, it is necessary to ask Japan, South Korea and Europe to increase the cost of American troops stationed abroad.
To be fair, although many countries lost their sovereignty because of this, after all, they saved a lot of money. How much does military spending account for GDP because Japan and Europe can maintain high welfare?
Everything has two sides. The leeks that the United States can cut with finance and the knives that cut leeks are in the hands of financial capitalists. There is no way to draw the expenditure here from the hands of financial capitalists. Therefore, the United States presents a situation in which large private capital is rich and the country is poor and plays the debt game every day.
Those who are familiar with Chinese history can probably see how similar this is to the late Ming Dynasty?
Trump chose to do subtraction and withdraw the hand of the United States, but the consequences soon came. The dollar weakened rapidly, and the tax cuts failed to deceive American funds overseas.
So Biden came to the stage and immediately said “I’m back”. This is that the United States is going to start meddling in the world’s affairs again. As soon as experienced funds look, they know that it’s hard to say elsewhere, and something will happen in Europe.
Before, Europe was the most enthusiastic about carbon neutrality, relying on its cheap natural gas supply from Russia. Of course, natural gas has less pollution, and they can take emission reduction green energy as a big stick to put on the spectrum of world moral defenders and beat developing countries everywhere, so that they can collect carbon emissions tax at that time.
If there is no war between Russia and Ukraine and it continues to develop, maybe Europe can trick Russia into being a little brother, and come up with a worldwide carbon tax, or use this to build a financial system to cut leeks.
But where is there such a good thing in the world? Biden didn’t come back to be the wrongdoer, but let you be his wrongdoer.
Biden shouted about carbon emissions when he took office, so the crude oil production of the United States was reduced by one third.
This has provided the basis for the sharp rise in oil prices.
Continue to deceive Europe into the dream of carbon finance, which in turn strained Russia Ukraine relations.
It is not for nothing that the United States has been a cheap bodyguard for so many years. European ideology has long been in the hands of the United States. Once Russia Ukraine conflict is instigated, under the control of crazy public opinion, Europe must follow the pace of the United States and have to be involved in the brink of war step by step.
Capital is the most timid. When he sees the possibility of war, he must be saya running away.
Why did the Swiss bank confiscate the property of the Russian rich? Do you think people really want to? Once it starts, it means that the golden signboard of a neutral country and a wealth haven built for hundreds of years will go bankrupt.
Why can Switzerland have high income and high welfare? Does it depend on the financial industry? The gold lettered signboard of finance is gone. Is there any wool left?
So where did the pressure from force Switzerland to destroy its foundation? Who else besides America?
Finally, the capital found that it was extremely dangerous in Europe. Where could they go? Of course, people like Li Ka Shing can go back to the East, but most of them don’t have that confidence and naturally run to the United States.
You think this is over?
Because of the energy problem, the industry in the euro zone has been hit hard, and the people’s livelihood has gradually appeared problems, but the politicians have been controlled, and they simply have no courage and strength to propose reconciliation to Russia.
As a result, Europe ran a trade deficit, even Germany.
If you spend more money but earn less, do you have to increase your debt?
Europe has had little economic growth for many years. Maintaining zero interest rates and negative interest rates for a long time is the fundamental to keep the economy from collapsing.
But at this time, the United States has created unprecedented inflation through the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. However, the fabricated employment data is not very good-looking, so there is a reason to raise interest rates and shrink the table.
Raising interest rates is more and more fierce, but shrinking the table is purely deceptive. The Federal Reserve did not shrink the table as planned, and even secretly expanded the table.
Because if you shrink your watch or not, you are just fooling yourself. But the interest rate increase is for countries such as the European Union and Japan. Do you follow or not? If not, the exchange rate will collapse and the currency credit will go bankrupt.
With, the exchange rate may not be able to withstand, but the debt crisis can immediately kill the economy.
Japan is better. After all, it is a unified country with a single nation, and its citizens are docile, clever and tolerant.
However, the European Union is a suture monster. Some poor countries in it rely on borrowing to survive. Now energy prices have soared, and the national fiscal gap has sharply increased, so they must borrow more debt. Once the debt cost has soared, the national finance will be more and more unable to make ends meet. At this time, as long as the international rating agencies come out and make a fuss, it is afraid that a crisis bigger than the European debt crisis will break out.
At the beginning of the Greek debt crisis, Germany and France were lending usury to save people, and the rescued countries were full of resentment.
This time, the energy crisis is superimposed, the debt crisis is coming again, and the contradiction between poor countries and rich countries cannot be greater?
As a central bank without national sovereignty endorsement, why should the European central bank use financial means to balance the interests of various countries? The Chinese government can come forward to engage in fiscal transfer payments, because the GDP of rich places is created under the national chess game. In this way, are there still some people who don’t have a big picture muttering?
In a group of countries with unequal wealth, the contradiction about the distribution of interests will be even greater. If the line of interests used by the sewing monsters to connect is broken, then everyone will inevitably be fragmented.
Originally, the European Central Bank did not say that it would raise interest rates by 75 basis points and learn from the United States. Now it has not said a word and reluctantly increased interest rates by 25 basis points.
Japan and China can endure and wait until the United States can’t afford to cut interest rates by itself. Can Europe bear it for so long?
Europe can’t bear it. With another effort to resolve the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the EU can be dissolved as desired, at least the eurozone is completely finished.
Those who are now counting on bottom hunting and believe that the euro has fallen to the bottom are afraid to be naive.
There is no reason for the United States to play this global tightening. Inflation has fallen, and the price of bulk commodities has also come down. Everyone is living a hard life. If you force it too hard, some people will start to mess up completely.
A pro western Russia has forced others to be pro Oriental, and even began to help internationalize the RMB.
India, an example of democracy, has made great efforts to directly engage in the rupee settlement system. Why? People are running out of foreign exchange reserves.
You can’t let them all die.
Now there is only one European Union that can be tossed about. When Europe is also tossed into pieces, it seems that the dollar has occupied the shit, but the dollar has to see that its system of global domination has no hard core allies.
However, with the policy of the United States, the president can serve two terms at most, and there is no need to change people. So where will anyone think of a long-term strategy?
In the past, the democratic system of the United States and the democratic system of Europe were half as good as each other, but now the world is not decided by the United States and the West themselves.
So you see, don’t worry, don’t bargain hunting, the bitter days of Europe are still ahead.