Source: Li Jianqiu’s world (id:lijianqiudeshijie)
Biden’s trip to the Middle East looks humorous in Retrospect: there is no doubt that reporters will ask about the kasuji incident and Biden’s harsh words before: what is the meaning of turning Salman into an international pariah and now lowering his head to ask Saudi Arabia to increase production?
Biden was obviously aware of this problem. When the reporter asked whether Saudi Arabia was still an international pariah, Biden kept silent, while Salman was laughing.
It’s really smiling
After the visit, the two sides signed 18 agreements. What was the result?
Brent crude oil once reached 94.8. After the visit, it returned to 100. Obviously, the market has no confidence in this visit.
What’s more humorous is that Biden may have felt that the visit was not going well. When the reporter asked about the kasuki incident again after the visit, Biden suddenly became tough. He said that I said kasuki as soon as I met. I’m the president of the United States, and I can’t keep silent about this kind of thing. Salman said that he shouldn’t be responsible for this matter, and I think Salman should be responsible, I don’t regret the evaluation that Saudi Arabia should become a pariah on the world stage.
And Saudi Arabia
Foreign Minister Adel Jubail quoted the crown prince as saying, “when the United States tried to impose values on Afghanistan and Iraq, it didn’t work. In fact, it backfired. When people tried to impose values on other countries by force, it didn’t work.”
“Countries have different values, which should be respected,”
“Your Highness mentioned to the president that such mistakes have also occurred in other countries. We have seen the United States commit such mistakes in Abu Ghraib (Iraqi prison).”.
Good guy, is Saudi Arabia teaching Americans to do things?
It’s turned upside down.
When talking about the confrontation between China and the United States three years ago, I said that this is an era of medium-sized powers. Why does Erdogan in Turkey dare to fight East and West? The bet is that Americans will not return to the Middle East. Almost all countries in Latin America came to power on the left overnight, Iran became active again, Russia started the war between Russia and Ukraine, and now even Saudi Arabia dares to jump out.
Just bet you Americans can’t smoke their origins.
The kasuji incident directly pushed the US Saudi relations to the bottom, especially Biden’s words made Saudi Arabia an “international pariah”, and said that Salman Jr. was a “thug”. Biden directly ended the US support for the war in Yemen, suspended all arms sales to Saudi Arabia, and released an intelligence assessment of the kasuji murder case. The conclusion was that Salman Jr. approved the assassination.
Biden also instructed Defense Secretary Austin to send a message: the United States does not welcome Salman Jr.
What other options does little Salman have? On the one hand, we can strengthen contacts with major countries such as China and Russia, and on the other hand, we can talk about peace with Iran.
As soon as Biden left, news came out of Saudi Arabia:
Saudi foreign minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan told the outside world on the afternoon of July 16 that Saudi Arabia is open to improving relations with Iran.
Prince Faisal made the above statement at the press conference after the Jeddah “security and development” summit. He also revealed that the just concluded Jeddah “security and development” summit has achieved a lot of results, and hoped that these results would have a positive impact on the regional situation.
Prince Faisal also said that the “security and development” summit did not discuss the Gulf Israel coordinated defense mechanism. He pointed out that the summit mainly discussed issues such as energy and security in the region, but the cooperation between Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Arab countries and Israel in the military and defense fields was not within the scope of discussion.
Saudi Arabia is willing to talk with Iran. What else can’t be solved?
What I suspect is that Salman Jr. will inevitably further seek Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy independence, talk about the achievements with Iran, talk about whether to make peace with Israel, and then seek the support of major powers outside the territory, such as China and Russia.
Salman Jr. also understands that according to the current situation of the United States, even if he cries out, the United States will not invest its strategic resources back into the Middle East.
And Biden’s attitude towards Salman is very strange. Kasuji is not an ordinary reporter at all. He is deeply involved in the political struggle in Saudi Arabia. Kasuji’s uncle is Adnan, who was the middleman of the Iran gate incident.
The eldest son of aunt kasuji is Dodi Fayed. Do you know Princess Diana? After Princess Diana divorced, she dated Dodi Fayed, and both of them were killed.
The kasuji family is not an ordinary family. Kasuji himself can influence bin Laden, and he has long been a messenger to bin Laden for Saudi Arabia. He is also a member of the Muslim Brotherhood. He has close contacts with Erdogan, and kasuji has long been close to Saudi intelligence organizations. Kasuji’s death may be a power struggle.
If Biden really cares about the people of the Muslim Brotherhood, Egyptian President Sisi suddenly bumped into hundreds of members of the Muslim Brotherhood on the street, and nothing happened, but he was clinging to Salman because of the kasuji problem?
If Biden really cares about a reporter, then Israel shot and killed a female reporter of Al Jazeera, and I haven’t seen Biden get very angry.
The United States has been dissatisfied with the arrest of dozens of princes and hundreds of officials by Salman Jr. This dissatisfaction is very strange. Many of these arrested princes and officials are indeed embezzlers, which even American media admit, but American media seem to be more worried about Salman’s concentration of power in his own hands, which makes people wonder how many of these princes and officials are actually controlled by Americans?
It means that Salman Jr. eradicated the high-level intelligence network of the United States in Saudi Arabia.
The dispute between Saudi Arabia and the United States is endless. In the past, Saudi Arabia did not have a chance to pay half a cent. However, today, unlike in the past, China and the United States are competing, and the world has entered the G0 era. For Saudi Arabia, it is really a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.
American fantasy
There is a humorous thing. After Biden visited Saudi Arabia, the US Council on foreign relations issued a report called the new US Saudi strategic contract, which said that the US Saudi relations should be reset and put forward the following requirements for Saudi Arabia:
First, first of all, Saudi Arabia must make a more formal commitment to opening up, stabilize the oil price to a reasonable level, change the production quota agreement between OPEC and Russia, or at least not renew it after September 2022, increase oil production, and provide Europe with alternatives to Russia. This is equivalent to contributing to the strategy of sanctions against Russia and improving the status of Salman Jr.
Second, the United States and Saudi Arabia reached a reconciliation on the war in Yemen. Saudi Arabia must withdraw its troops unilaterally. If Saudi Arabia is willing to withdraw its troops, it will provide a reason for the Biden government to further commit to Saudi defense, especially to provide weapons and technology to deal with the attack of Hussein missiles and drones.
Third, Salman Jr. must normalize the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Israel. For example, the right of overflight, Israeli Muslim citizens and Palestinian Muslims in the West Bank and Gaza strip can fly directly to Mecca. Saudi Arabia and Israel can participate in regional conferences and open trade representative offices.
Fourth, Salman Jr. must make it clear that he is responsible for the murder of kasuji, restrict the state religious institutions, and restrict the privileges of the religious police.
If you look at these articles, you will know how arrogant Americans are in diplomacy.
The whole treaty is: Saudi Arabia will do something to please the United States, but the United States does not have to promise anything. All Saudi Arabia’s efforts, and even strategic concessions, such as tearing up the rationing agreement with Russia, are only “improving Salman’s status in Washington” for Saudi Arabia, and withdrawing troops from Yemen is only “providing a reason for the United States”.
People don’t guarantee 100%.
If Salman agreed to these conditions, I think Salman should almost step down, and it is a miracle that these conditions can be brought to the negotiation table and put forward.