Author: Zhi sir Source: Mr. Zhi (ID: zhixs10)
When I looked at the fertility statistics of various countries around the world, I found that the top 10 are all African countries:
Of course, the top 30 are also crowded with African countries, with their fertility rates increasing one by one.
As for the countdown countries/regions, these are the ones that come and go:
In 2021, China’s Total fertility rate will be 1.16. One year later, it will fall to 1.07, ahead of the British Virgin Islands.
The Total fertility rate means the average number of children born by all Chinese women of childbearing age. Therefore, the fertility rate is averaged. When the two child three child policy was released a few years ago, the birth population at that time rebounded briefly.
In other words, in recent years, the main force of childbirth has been dominated by second and third births.
The real situation is that the one child birth rate in 2022 is only 0.5, which can be said to be unimaginably low.
There is currently no accurate number of births in 2023, but it is widely circulated online that if pregnant women were to file early in March, they would have all been registered by May (after all, there are very few pregnant women who do not go to the hospital to give birth), and then the number of births for the whole year can be estimated based on the number of registered cases.
The online estimate is less than 8 million, and one official media outlet went to grassroots hospitals to verify the authenticity of this set of numbers, pointing out that the number of archives established this year has indeed decreased by one-third.
Comparing the birth population of China in previous years, it was 12.02 million in 2020, 10.62 million in 2021, and 9.56 million last year. It is reasonable to speculate that it is approximately 8 million this year, and the theoretical derivation is correct.
This also means that the decline of our Total fertility rate rate has exceeded the painful struggle of Japan for more than three decades in just a few years, and is likely to further break the lowest record maintained by South Korea in the future.
If we still use the process of industrialization and urbanization to explain the declining fertility rate on the cliff, it seems a bit weak. The extreme social environment, high debt, high housing prices, and low income are all the root causes of ultra-low fertility rates.
Looking at another set of data:
In April 2023, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.2%, with a decrease in value; The unemployment rate of the population aged 25 to 59 surveyed is 4.2%, which is also at a low level in recent years.
Of course, what everyone is most concerned about is the unemployment rate of the 16 to 24 year old population survey. The latest data is 20.4%, which has exceeded a historical high.
Among these 20.4%, there are a total of 28 million young migrant workers (excluding school students), so why is the unemployment rate so high in this age group?
One reason is economic structural issues.
The previous low-end intensive manufacturing industry could still accommodate a large number of youth employment, but the trend in the past decade has been for the youth group to gradually flow from manufacturing to the service industry, coinciding with the impact of the pandemic in the past three years, and the recovery has been quite slow, leading to an increase in youth unemployment rate;
The second reason is subjective will.
60% of young people voluntarily resign, and even the proportion of naked resignations is not small. Everyone holds a mentality of preferring to give up before finding a satisfactory job, and chooses to wait and see, after all, they are in a state of one person having enough to eat and the whole family not hungry, and have not yet been subjected to the pressure of life.
It’s just that everyone didn’t expect that after resigning naked, it’s already difficult to find a suitable new job.
So currently, many enterprises are experiencing a “labor shortage”, while the unemployment rate of young people on the other side is also at a high level. The two are very contradictory, which is the reason for this.
This year, the number of college graduates has reached 11.58 million, and some of them will contribute to a new generation of “passive unemployed people”. Every year is the most difficult year for employment, which is even more difficult.
Another set of data shows that the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide decreased by 20.6% year-on-year from January to April.
The profits of the company in the first two months have indeed decreased significantly. Although there has been a rebound in March and April, the overall recovery has not been very good.
In April, exports remained at 8.5%, but by May they had increased to -7.5%, which was much worse than expected. Only automobiles, grains, and refined oil products were still growing:
The underlying reasons are not complex. The continuous contraction of overseas consumer markets and the insufficient demand in our domestic market, which means that consumption cannot be raised, make the willingness of enterprises to expand production not very high.
This also involves the Money supply.
In 2021, China’s Money supply M2 will be 238 trillion yuan, and 266 trillion yuan in 2022. In April this year, it has reached 280 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.4% year on year.
Why has such a huge amount of money always successfully avoided ordinary people, resulting in domestic demand not being boosted?
The reason is due to currency idling.
The original intention of releasing water was to lend to enterprises, hoping that they could increase investment, stimulate employment, and increase employee wages. Once the people had money in their pockets, consumption would naturally rise.
But the reality is that after receiving money, business owners dare not blindly expand in the current environment, and money is also prohibited from flowing into the stock and housing markets. In the end, they can only deposit the money back into the bank.
Enterprises that can obtain loans are already considered high-quality customers of banks, and more small and micro enterprises actually cannot even meet the eligibility criteria for loans. After all, banks are also worried that these enterprises will go bankrupt at any time, leading to a higher bad debt rate. Therefore, they would rather deposit their money into the system to earn interest difference, which will eventually lead to financial idle.
In February this year, the CBRC issued 19 tickets, including Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Minsheng Bank, China Bohai Bank and Standard Chartered Bank, which were fined 388 million yuan in total. There were violations such as misappropriation of loan funds, untrue statistical data, and non-standard review procedures for major Related party transaction.
Of course, what makes banks even more headache is the accumulated local debt, which is snowballing like a snowball and can no longer pretend to exist.
In the good days of soaring housing prices, local urban investment platforms have ventured into various businesses, such as developing high-tech agriculture, operating commercial and office buildings, operating scenic parking lots, and even investing in building schools and parks. They use these businesses to obtain overvalues, find local banks to mortgage loans, and issue urban investment bonds. Life has been very prosperous.
It is said that taking every penny is like using mud and sand. After being used to spending money recklessly, it is difficult to tighten one’s belt and live a difficult life. Local debts are rolling more and more, and some cities’ finance bureaus have even become indifferent. They have made public the list of outstanding debts online, including their subordinate units.
From Guizhou to Nanning, from Henan to Hebei, from Heilongjiang, Jilin to Liaoning, a certain trend is gradually spreading. Perhaps some readers may feel that watching local financial constraints and thunderstorms, and then expecting the real estate market to plummet, they have a watching attitude throughout the entire process, which is not related to their monthly income of 3k.
However, this time, it is really closely related to the general public.
A very simple principle is that if land finance cannot be maintained, then there must be a limit to increasing resources and reducing expenses, and there is ultimately a limit to reducing expenses. Open source is particularly important. Where can we open source?
There are really many methods.
The easiest way is to increase the “confiscated income”, which means that the judicial authorities impose fines on violators, as well as confiscated stolen funds, and so on.
Looking at data from major cities over the past few years, it can be seen that the proportion of fines and confiscations in first and second tier cities to fiscal revenue is not high, and they can maintain their livelihood. However, the fines and confiscations in third and fourth tier cities are getting higher and higher.
A car driver in a city in Guangdong was fined 200 yuan for being caught with a camera picking his nose;
A truck in a certain county in Henan Province received 58 tickets and was fined 275000 yuan within two years;
A certain county in Shandong has launched a monthly penalty ticket. As long as you pay the monthly penalty in advance, no matter how much you violate the regulations in the following month, you can proceed smoothly;
A city in Hebei fined a total of 2443 local enterprises 67 million yuan within 67 days;
It can be reasonably speculated that in the future, there will be behaviors such as riding a small electric donkey without wearing a helmet, crossing the street and running red lights, and not walking on the sidewalk according to regulations. These behaviors may trigger violations and fines, and the number of parking tickets during morning and evening rush hours will definitely increase. The degree of tightness of some public security punishment indicators will vary depending on the time.
Some readers may say that this is not a disguised form of fine to generate income, I want to complain.
It is indeed possible to file a complaint, after all, the General Office of the State Council has issued relevant opinions strictly prohibiting the use of fines for income generation.
But there are policies above and countermeasures below, as a law enforcement officer said: “The local finance is out of money, so it is necessary to put in place law enforcement
If law enforcement is in place, how can there be any talk of violating regulations and how can we handle them? Anyway, everything is strictly executed according to the procedures, and if you violate the rules, you will be fined.
The Road Traffic Safety Law stipulates that all fines and illegal gains collected must be turned over to the national treasury.
However, the current fines are assumed to be in the pockets of local finance. If this gap is not blocked, the local fines and confiscated income will only increase in the future.
Another way to change money is to have the courage to sell and mortgage public assets, such as the city’s parking lot business, the rights to set up and operate various scenic spots, or to buy out the 30-year franchise rights of schools, public institutions, and state-owned company canteens, and even dare to embezzle social security medical treatment funds… These are all cases that have been exposed before, and it is unclear how to operate them if they have not been exposed.
So it is very likely that your child will complain about the poor food in the school cafeteria, the cheap ingredients used, and the lack of nutrition; You went to the scenic area for a visit and wanted to have a meal inside, but ended up with a priceless butcher’s meal; The cost of temporary parking on the street is also increasing… all of this is related to the public.
Moreover, compared to billions of dollars in urban investment bonds, relying on this short-term income generation cannot actually close the hole.
Nowadays, many counties and cities have a mentality of procrastination and are not in a hurry to solve their debts. They only need to pay off the interest and continue to endure, leaving the thunder for the next term to win; Or perhaps we can endure thunderstorms in other regions first, so we don’t have to be the first. When we thunder together, we can be blameless.
The biggest challenge facing the public today is still the real estate industry.
From the most direct feedback from the national housing market, as long as the price is in place, there will definitely be consumer power, and any amount of inventory can gradually be consumed. Exchange price for quantity is a very simple transaction logic.
However, some new properties have been explicitly banned after significant price reductions, followed by lockdowns and refunds. Transactions have been strictly controlled, and the reasons given are very reluctant. When old homeowners protest, they are actually worried about the impact on local financial security.
If all real estate projects are to be sold at a discount, the banks will definitely suffer the most severe losses, which is equivalent to a serious loss of the value of the assets pledged in their hands, causing a large-scale asset depreciation and even facing a new wave of supply disruptions;
The large-scale price reduction of new real estate projects will make real estate companies less willing to purchase land at high prices, which will also affect the subsequent land auction prices and affect the source of income for land finance.
So the consistent measures taken in many places are to guarantee the price and abandon the quantity, strictly limit the transaction record prices of new houses, and even try to control the prices of second-hand houses in the market, neither allowing them to rise nor fall, so the stalemate continues.
But the problem is that the price limit policy cannot be maintained at all, and on the premise that everyone’s enthusiasm for buying a house is not high, doing so is only seriously discouraging buyers’ enthusiasm.
The prices of new and second-hand houses can be limited, but the auction market cannot stop it. It will only break through the bottom line of the market time and time again, truly restoring the true face of housing prices.
In addition, real estate developers cannot withstand the price limit order.
Originally overwhelmed by debt, they were all thinking of clearing their positions and offering discounts. They would quickly collect funds to fill the capital chain. Real estate companies would do everything possible to bypass policies, such as buying a house for free parking spaces, group buying a house, 10% down payment, negative down payment, and so on; Alternatively, we can negotiate with banks for extension, mergers and acquisitions, and equity financing to further transmit the risks.
So, if there are positive news from real estate companies that are repeatedly hyped up in the future, it is necessary to be cautious about the stock market’s higher shipments and various bonds packaged as high-end financial products. Everyone should be cautious and really don’t touch these things indiscriminately.
In May of this year, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities across the country decreased by 26% month on month, and in second and third tier cities, it decreased by more than 30%.
The above indirectly confirms my conclusion that if the price limit is imposed until the end, not only will the housing price not be guaranteed, but even the consumer group will be discouraged, eroding all confidence.
Now that exports are weakening, real estate is exhausted, and consumption is weak, the infrastructure construction this year has also been silent. It can be certain that after a period of waiting and watching, if the expected results are not effective, several powerful drugs will continue to be implemented, such as completely lowering the threshold for buying a house, relaxing or even canceling policies such as purchase restrictions, loan restrictions, sales restrictions, and visa restrictions;
The other is to leverage funds, reduce down payment ratios, extend loan terms, and so on.
But although the powerful medicine is good, if it is difficult to touch the core, it is actually quite difficult.
Just like no matter how much LPR is lowered, banks will not lower their existing mortgage interest rates. Some people say that in 2008, banks had a precedent of offering a 85% discount on mortgage rates, because at that time, mortgage loans accounted for about 10% of the bank’s business.
Now, several major industries have exceeded the 30% regulatory red line.
The deposit interest rate can be lowered, and the loan interest rate can be exempted… The most difficult thing in the world is to cut down without external pressure. Our bank is one of the most profitable enterprises in the world, and its annual profits hit a new record high, reaching an astronomical figure, which is actually not a glorious honor, but ____.
I also saw an expert and scholar say that there is still a lot of room in the future for the 300 million people’s homes, mainly composed of migrant workers.
This group of people put on a high profile, thinking that since household appliances can all be sold out of excess production capacity in the countryside, why can’t houses be sold in the countryside? It is always believed that the huge risks accumulated in the current society can continue to be overcome by risk transfer. It can continue to extract Surplus value from the masses of people, and then continue to play music and dance.
Migrant workers have devoted their lives to the process of urbanization. Now they have not even understood the registered residence system, and their children’s property has been tied up in the house with all their savings. Can you really count on this group of low-income aging groups, expecting them to take hundreds of yuan a month in retirement to receive reinforced concrete?
Order some face.
Why is our population three times that of the United States, but the market demand created is far lower than that of the United States?
Because the real estate industry has successfully kidnapped resources and talents from all industries, everyone is still procrastinating and waiting, always hoping to gradually digest debt and achieve a smooth and orderly landing. It is necessary to save domestic demand while also allowing people to increase leverage to buy houses. Ultimately, it will only lead to more serious overcapacity and insufficient consumption, low fertility and aging… It will be too late by then.
I have said before that if you really want to improve the living standards of the people, if you really want to boost domestic demand, don’t go around in the middle. Instead, simply distribute money and living allowances directly to the people and let them decide how to use them themselves.
If you are afraid that the effect of money distribution is not good, you should issue Voucher. There should be less routines and more benefits. Don’t rush to buy online. It is all about 100-20150-30 petty profits. You should directly subsidize 50% -80% of them. If they reach 100-80 or 200-160, you should pay enough.
These Voucher are distributed uniformly by regions and per capita at the national level, covering all industries as far as possible, so as to ensure fairness to the greatest extent.
At present, our production capacity is piled up like a mountain, and our goods are unsold. There is no need to consider the issue of inflation. The primary issue currently facing us is weak domestic demand and shrinking consumption.
To be honest, even if we don’t give people money and Voucher, the money saved may not be all used for cutting edge.
We still have a relatively serious fiscal deficit every year, and our local departments still don’t think about how to save funds. By the end of the year, we will still use up the remaining funds to avoid a budget reduction next year.
And all of this money has been used for ineffective infrastructure, such as the construction of water management buildings, museums, and cultural squares in impoverished counties. Local urban investment bonds continue to roll into huge mines, and through central transfer payments, even if money is scarce, how can the wonderful idea of saving money arise?
Therefore, it is more practical to directly subsidize Voucher so that people can get through the current difficulties first.
Next, I will focus on the key points.
Everything has a cycle, especially products with financial attributes, which will inevitably generate some fluctuations, with the difference being only a sudden slowdown.
Looking back at the history of real estate in recent years, after reaching its peak in 2018, the country began its first round of decline.
Then there was a rebound, with the housing market in some popular cities reaching new highs, further masking the weakness of third and fourth tier cities.
To be sure, cities with strong financial strength can respectfully puncture the foam, and most cities will lead to the end of the housing price slump.
A sharp drop can indeed trigger a larger collapse of confidence, but we always know how to comfort ourselves, just like the 2015 stock market crash, where everyone cursed and scolded, disappointment and disappointment returned. After healing the wound, we still entered the field to sow seeds a few years later, and people are forgetful animals.
As long as all the people with housing loans are not cut off, do not want to become Laolai, still have stable income every month, and can repay the loan normally, then the bank’s financial risk can be controlled within a reasonable range, and then run away from the second-hand housing market, accelerate the settlement of the mortgaged property in the French auction Market clearing, and put yourself in the bag first.
When the housing price drops to a certain extent and a new group of homebuyers enter, while another group still cannot afford it, they will consider public rental housing.
The largest second landlord in Shenzhen swept the urban village rental market with 500 billion yuan. On the one hand, it aims to transform the rental market in urban villages and attract high-quality young people to come in. On the other hand, it can also create stable and high-quality cash flow products, and finally mortgage them to the bank to obtain loan authorization.
This is a very clear signal and also reflects KK’s divine prophecy in Tianya that the large-scale era of public rental housing has begun.
You will gradually find that in the future, not only will the house price fall to its original residential value, but all walks of life are squeezing out the foam and ushering in a return to the average.
The order volume of ride hailing drivers and delivery riders has decreased, and competition has intensified; The group of newly graduated college students have become accustomed to taking off their long shirts; Internet salary cuts and layoffs, job hopping that can maintain two-thirds of the original salary is already very respectable, and all high premium wages will return to their original value.
The continuous development of AI big model will not cause large-scale unemployment in a short time, but it is easy to squeeze out the original premium foam in all walks of life.
Countries around the world are also positioning their value chains, whether or not they are mentally prepared, such as South Korea’s semiconductor industry, Japan’s automotive industry, Europe’s high welfare policies, Vietnam’s foreign trade economy, and so on.
Someone said why did it suddenly become like this?
Because we are already in a global economic crisis, the era of rapid growth and expanding the cake has passed, ushering in a normalized chaotic cycle where the world kisses me with pain and continues to suffer.
From 2023 to 2025, the global economy will enter a period of prosperity after a long period of recovery, following a period of depression in the Kangbo cycle.
We should be grateful that in the past, the world often chose to fight a grand war to solve this terrible situation in order to clear excess production capacity, rebuild ruins, and allow the economy to develop rapidly.
Since major powers cannot fight each other now, they can only stare blankly. If you raise interest rates, you can lower them. If you globalize trade barriers, you can win until the other party falls first.
Return to the level of ordinary people.
What we need to do is to control our consumption desire. It doesn’t matter what we eat and drink normally. It doesn’t cost much, but don’t make some meaningless large luxury consumption (especially the stock market). The Moonlight clan is the most vulnerable group in this era.
In the end, lowering one’s psychological expectations and finding a precise positioning are the key to avoiding being overwhelmed by this sense of despair, and then nurturing oneself and waiting for the next cycle to come.