The dividing line of Lehman moment!

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Original: guziming authorized to reprint this article to wechat official account: zhengshitang plus2019


“So far, mankind has three great inventions, fire, wheel and central bank.”

This is paulsamuelson, the first Nobel Prize winner in economics in the United States, who wrote in Chapter 26 of the textbook economics < Central bank and monetary policy > Introduction before opening.

At the end of last week, the currency circle encountered a Lehman moment. Bitcoin and ethercoin led the whole virtual currency into a straight dive. Bitcoin once fell below the $18000 mark, and more than 100000 people broke their positions.

Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, and Celsius, the “currency circle bank”, once froze deposits like a local rural commercial bank, causing panic in the global currency circle.

However, compared with the delay in withdrawing money from village and town banks, the exchange in the currency circle did not unplug the network cable, and soon resumed trading. After several big men, such as musk, whose ancestral home is in the Netherlands, promised to provide new funds and psychological massage, they quickly realized a certain rebound.

Although the short-term run crisis has passed, I still feel that the differentiation of digital currencies in the future is unstoppable, and the market has not entered a safe range.

Small countries like El Salvador, which have announced bitcoin as a national currency, just use the gimmick of cryptocurrency to attract tourism and international conferences. They can’t really rely on them.

In the future reshuffle, if you want to squeeze your own currency out of your competitors, you can learn more from the Far East and link cryptocurrencies to bulk commodities. For example, how many tons of wheat and garlic can be exchanged for one cryptocurrency in the commodity exchange.

You can even take money to a small agricultural country to buy an official as a pawn, use each mu of land as a new “mining machine”, issue stable coins such as wheat coins and garlic coins, and then use the wheat coins and scallion coins with “unlimited future income from land” as the central bank to buy your own cryptocurrency to inject liquidity into the market.

With the global price of agricultural products as the anchor point, I believe that no opponent dares to short wheat coins and garlic coins. At that time, he can stand still in the howl of cryptocurrency, take the lead in this big escape and become the final winner.

Although the above is a joke, in reality, under the interest rate increase and contraction table of the Central Bank of China and the United States, all major economies in the world, like the currency circle, need to find ways to inject liquidity into the market through the central bank.

However, the “Impossible Triangle” of different economies is different, and the ways to inject liquidity and credit are also different.

The Central Bank of Japan bought 10-year Japanese bonds at a fixed interest rate of 0.25% in unlimited quantities, creating a world miracle and buying half of its national debt.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has injected US dollars into the market several times to buy Hong Kong dollars, and raised the benchmark interest rate to retain US capital that intends to withdraw.

The mysterious Eastern powers are the Russian crude oil that has been sold at a huge discount with their own currency from distant Europe at full speed.

There is no right or wrong, only appropriate and inappropriate.

Similarly, since local governments do not have the power to print money, they can only find ways to bypass the central bank and issue their own “provincial money” based on their own economic attributes.

For example, if a province decides on a number, it can continuously inject “exclusive RMB” into the real estate market through the demolition of shanty towns, so that the original uncompleted houses can instantly become collateral that the “local central bank” can print money indefinitely.

Of course, this is not a joke, but that the method is really smart.

This is the same as Japan’s crazy printing money to buy Japanese government bonds, injecting targeted liquidity into the domestic market and promoting the depreciation of the yen “beggar thy neighbor” under the background of the withdrawal of the US dollar from Asia.

Even the logic of bypassing the central bank to issue banknotes by itself is similar, except that the supporting industrial chains of each province are different.

Areas that use land finance to develop industrial chains hope to repair hematopoietic function as soon as possible through targeted money distribution; In areas where land finance eventually turns into houses, we can only continue to carry out shed reform and real estate, and keep raising real estate behemoths with a growing appetite.

The critical point of China’s high-speed development era has come, and the opportunity to exchange land finance for industrial chain investment is no longer available. A “medium-sized city development trap” line has appeared in front of us.

Looking at the world, in the future, with the Fed’s further interest rate hike and table contraction, the global Lehman moment is also believed to be not far away. In order to save the economy, all countries will have to inject liquidity into the market through central banks in different ways.

Among them, countries with industrial chains can restore hematopoietic function in liquidity injection; However, countries without an industrial chain will only continue to make their own “medium development trap” in the process of liquidity injection.

In the near future, a dividing line will appear before countries, between cities, and even between currencies.

The choice of right or wrong at the personal level is often between one thought and another.

Finally, today’s article is to follow yesterday’s writing. I didn’t want to roast about a certain place. I changed my style. I don’t want to see today’s survey results of red code.

It was expected to launch several local small “Gao Yuliang and Qi Tongwei”, but the small staff member of the big data bureau who was responsible for the implementation was also picked out and punished more severely than the director involved… You can’t be distracted…

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