Author: Kafka is busy source: outsider’s horizon (id:hooyar_380097485)
On the 5th, the dollar index soared to 106 like a monkey.
The biggest anchor of the dollar index is the euro. It can be understood that the sharp fall of the euro directly sent the dollar to a new high.
This seems to be a game of international currencies, but it is actually a change in financial governance rights.
I often say that the international monetary pricing system is distorted.
For example, in 2019, a truck of Vietnamese was transported to Britain in a refrigerated truck. All 39 people on the truck were frozen to death, and the death was extremely tragic.
When the news broke, many Chinese media claimed it by themselves at the first time, thinking it was all Chinese.
At that time, I thought it impossible, because Chinese people who can endure this hardship can find a job with a salary not much lower than this in China.
But what if the time is adjusted to 20 years ago? You said it was Chinese. I really believe it. Why? Because doing the same job at that time, I really earned much more in Britain than in China.
So you see, what’s the problem here?
Similarly, there is a price difference in Britain, China and Vietnam. Most of the price factors here are distorted by the financial discourse.
Vnd is worthless, because Vietnam has no influence in the world financial circle, so even an over angry great power Britain can still use finance to cut wool.
In terms of fairness, there is no fairness. The world financial order is in the hands of others. The United States is enfeoffed layer by layer, and no matter how it is enfeoffed, it can’t go to Vietnam.
Of course, the United States certainly wants to exploit China as it exploits Vietnam. However, the RMB cannot be freely convertible. To play plunder through financial means, it always has to make a detour.
If the financial shears fail to cut the wool successfully several times, then the backfire will come.
When the dollar cannot shake the financial sovereignty of RMB, the influence of RMB will gradually rise with economic development in the international financial discourse.
Therefore, the internationalization of RMB has become a matter of course. It is better to work in first tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen than sneaking into Britain at the risk of life.
When China, the emerging power of world finance, rises, the original financial order of the world will be re washed.
Americans don’t want to reduce their cake. When it can’t handle China, they have to fight against their allies. Little brother Japan is the first to be pulled out to sacrifice. However, the size is still not enough. If they want to eat big meat, they have to go to the European Union.
If you take out the historical K-line of the euro, the current price of the euro has not hit the psychological level of the dollar. The low point of the euro in history is 0.823, that is, 1 euro can only be exchanged for 0.823 US dollars.
Why was the euro hit to the bottom? Because Europe was at war, and after the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Europe was trampled by Americans at will, international wealth fled Europe and flowed to the United States, which led to the collapse of the euro.
Then there was 9 / 11 in the United States, which made international capital find that the Americans had too many enmities. In order to revenge, the enemy can fight with you. In the skyscrapers of the imperial financial center like New York, the Jihad players were directly connected by plane.
This is terrible. It happened to encounter the bursting of the Internet foam in the United States, so the wealth that went to the United States turned around and rushed to Europe, so a wave of wealth transfer lifted the high point of the euro.
So the Americans launched the European debt crisis. When the euro zone faced the risk of disintegration, wealth began to go again.
In the repeated tug of war of wealth, Europe is increasingly pulling its crotch. Whenever Europe wants to stand up, there will be a strange crisis. After the European debt crisis, it is the refugee problem. The refugees did not understand it, and it is the brexit of Britain. When brexit is over, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out.
Every time something happens in Europe, the euro begins to fall.
Behind the sharp fall of the euro on the 5th is the additional trouble caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Sweden and Finland joined NATO, which means that the two rich countries in northern Europe have changed their neutral status and directly opposed Russia in trouble.
To make Europe uneasy, it is very simple to deploy weapons to NATO allies. For security reasons, Russia must resist. As long as there is any change in Russia, the great Ivan threat theory will scare the wealth of Europe all over the world.
So you see, Ukraine has become so important. Would Russia and Ukraine have reached this stage without Zelensky jumping to death repeatedly?
This is Ukraine’s great contribution to helping the US dollar survive with its own homeland security and national survival. No wonder Zelensky is like the king of the world. He often puts forward various requirements to Western allies, and recently apportioned a US $750billion reconstruction plan for Ukraine.
In recent years, due to the epidemic, the world economy as a whole has little room to rise. Russia’s complete decoupling from the United States and the West has directly led to the decline in the demand for the dollar and the euro as world reserve currencies.
The pool of global reserve currencies is so large that if the dollar wants to keep its share, it is a foregone conclusion that the euro has been smashed by various means.
Europe is now very embarrassed. It is an old-fashioned power and a pole on the land. However, people are still anxious to learn from the United States to play industrialization.
Finance is a kind of public robbery under hegemony. Without the power of hegemony, you have to play the game of hegemony. This is death.
According to the recently released data, Germany, the largest producer in Europe, has a trade deficit, while France’s deficit has reached a record high.
Once the road of deindustrialization begins, it will inevitably go further and further. Because you choose finance, that is, you default that capital flows freely around the world. Naturally, whoever can give capital a higher return, capital will go wherever it goes.
So you see, just like the example of Vietnam I mentioned earlier, the financial scissors help Europeans and Americans do the same work and get more money, so the global allocation of capital will certainly throw away the production end from Europe and the United States. This is not entirely because capital is unwilling to pay higher wages.
Tesla’s American and German super factories have reduced workers as much as possible, but there is still no way to do production. Only Chinese factories can really achieve Musk’s production capacity goal.
Some enterprises tried to make labor cheaper and moved production to Vietnam. Finally, they found that Vietnam could not compare with China in terms of production efficiency.
Very simply, what industrialization needs is a system, which includes a large number of labor, a mature industrial chain, and more advanced facilities that can be continuously invested according to improving labor efficiency.
So you see, the capital of Europe and the United States may go to Southeast Asia to cultivate a mature industrial chain and constantly invest in it? Once this investment is in the wrong direction, it will lose everything.
So we see that the so-called foreign investment is nothing more than moving its mature production capacity to your new place. Twenty years ago, China’s most advanced factories were foreign-funded enterprises. Now, China’s most advanced factories are basically invested by China’s own capital.
Once Europe and the United States play deindustrialization, capital plans to manually and cheaply relocate factories overseas, the world has been tossing around for so long, and the last thing left is either the Latin American trap or the Southeast Asian crisis. Except for China, only Japan and South Korea nodded. If you look at these three countries, everyone has a common feature, that is, to develop a large amount of national industrial capital.
The problem with Japan and South Korea is that they are not large enough and depend too much on the outside, so it is easy for Americans to harvest if they really want to.
But here in China, we have a large enough body size and claim to be a system. After so many years of working life, it seems that we are helping them produce. Every day, ha ha. In fact, on the contrary, we think about it. It’s not that we kidnapped them with productivity.
So you see, we experienced workers all know that the boss has a conflict with super workers, and it must be the boss who finally kneels down to beg for mercy.
In the past, the market was smaller with the play of virtual control, but finance was always the best thing to absorb liquidity. When there were major problems in the European wealth system and the contradiction between NATO and Russia began to heat up, the so-called wealth of the free world accelerated to the United States, which gave the United States a little alternative to its monetary policy.
U.S. stocks rebounded strongly from decline to rise on the 5th, not because the U.S. economy suddenly encountered positive conditions.
Because of the sharp decline in oil, the CPI of the United States soon fell, and the Atlanta Fed’s report that U.S. GDP continued to shrink gave the Fed reason not to raise interest rates in such a hurry.
Now the yields of US bonds have been smashed. As I said in June, the bull market is over and the bear market of US bonds is over, but the bear market of US stocks is still grinding.
Because of the beautiful revenue of American enterprises and the credit of Europe, the United States needs to harm Europe because of the dollar strategy. Naturally, the revenue contributed by Europe will begin to shrink.
What the capital market wants is appreciation. Your performance has shrunk. What do you rely on to maintain the stock price?
You see, Europeans are now learning to pick up firewood, don’t use hot water, give up cars and switch to bicycles. Energy demand suddenly fell. Russian energy should be sold to China and India in large quantities, and oil in the Middle East seems a little more.
Once the panic inventory replenishment slows down, OPEC’s oil price will not rise, unless the next step is to play a bigger role and attack the major oil pipelines at fixed points.
However, the sharp rise of the US dollar index is not good for the US dollar. There is a trade deficit in a large area of the world, which shows that everyone is short of US dollars except those energy exporting countries that have made money.
Either because of the lack of dollars and burst into a wave of economic crisis, or try to find a boss to discuss how to pass the normal life of dollarization.
The blood of the allies, the dollar is certainly very happy, but the younger brothers are sucked into human work, the strength to help the elder brother shout is gone, and the strength of this community is also withered, so that the elder brother is reduced to where he cuts people with a watermelon knife by himself, then the elder brother has few days to jump around.
Cherish the sunset red of the dollar.