Source: Li Jianqiu’s World (ID: lijianqiudeshijie)
On the issue of epidemic prevention and lying down, I am neutral. In view of the different national strength, structure and monetary policy of different countries, there may be differences in the performance of each country. For reference only, see the performance of each country first. If you don’t want to see it, you can directly pull it to the bottom and make a summary.
The average unemployment rate before the epidemic was 3.7%, 14.7% in the epidemic. The unemployment rate after unsealing was about 3.6%, which was very low. It was in a state of labor shortage. The labor force participation rate was 62.1% to 62.4%. There was a certain gap with that before the epidemic. Some middle-aged and elderly people permanently quit the workplace.
In 2019, the capacity utilization rate before the epidemic was 77.52%, and 79.88% after the release. The production index of the timber industry was 98.44 in 2019, and 102.92 after the release. Industrial production recovered well.
After unsealing, retaliatory consumption occurred in the United States, but it has gradually recovered to the normal pre epidemic years. Due to the consumption, QE policy in the epidemic and the chaos of the supply chain, the CPI in the United States has skyrocketed, and now it has entered the tightening mode.
After the opening up of the United States, the stock market fell sharply. It improved until June 12 after the entry restrictions. Almost all stocks were affected. Growth stocks and real estate stocks fell sharply. The only thing to see is energy. This may not be related to the epidemic, but to the Russian Ukrainian war.
According to the current upside down of US bond yields, the economic recession is in sight, and the correlation between the economic recession and monetary policy may be greater.
In all indicators, the EU is worse than the United States.
In 2019, the unemployment rate in the euro area averaged 7.6%, rising to 8.6% during the epidemic, 7% in January 2022 and 6.6% in September this year, which is a very low level in history.
In 2019, the capacity utilization rate in the euro area was 81.2%, and the production index was 104.5. In the fourth quarter of 2022, the capacity utilization rate in the euro area was 81.4%, and the production index was 107, both higher than before the epidemic.
Compared with the consumption explosion in the United States after the de closure, the consumption in the euro area is poor. There are various factors in this. One is that the Russia Ukraine war led to a sharp rise in energy prices, economic downturn, and wage growth far behind inflation. As early as March, the consumer confidence index fell sharply.
Since some countries in the euro area have lagged behind, the European Central Bank dare not raise interest rates as sharply as the Federal Reserve.
Like the United States, the stock market in the euro area fell sharply after March. Similarly, energy stocks rose higher, and the medical, industrial and public utilities sectors were better than other industries.
Basically, the euro area is a weakened America.
In 2019, the unemployment rate in the UK was 3.83%, 3.6% after the release in February this year. Generally, less than 5% is full employment. The UK has been in full employment before the epidemic, which can only be regarded as a shortage of labor force.
Like the United States, Britain also faces the problem of permanent withdrawal of labor from the labor market.
In 2019, the industrial production index was 100.8. In September 2022, it was 104.9%.
Due to the inflation caused by the Russian Ukrainian war, the high energy price and the political chaos with British characteristics, the consumer confidence index in September hit a new record low, and the retail index fell from 103.2 in February to 97.9 in September.
The stock market situation is similar to that of the United States and the European Union. After March, the stock market fluctuated, with energy stocks leading the way, and medical performance was good.
The aging degree of Japan is deeper than that of other countries, and the epidemic prevention problem is even more embarrassing.
The unemployment rate in Japan was about 2.3% in 2019, 3% in the epidemic, and 2.6% in September 2022. Japan has always been in a state of labor shortage, whether before the epidemic or after the release.
Japan’s labor participation rate performed well, reaching 63% in September 2022, higher than 62.5% in 2019.
In 2019, the industrial production index was 102.3. After the release, it was 98.3 in September 2022.
In 2019, the capacity utilization rate will be 101.3. After the release, it will be 98.6 in September 2022,
Japan still maintained certain epidemic prevention requirements, and industrial production resumed slowly.
After the release, due to the deep aging of Japan, there was no American style retaliatory consumption, and Japan’s consumer confidence index dropped rapidly. Last November, it once reached a high of 39.2, while in October this year, it was only 30.8.
However, the consumption slump has brought additional benefits, that is, the inflation in Japan is not fierce so far, which forms a sharp contrast with the European and American countries, and also allows the Bank of Japan to continue to maintain the current loose monetary policy, but the yen has depreciated significantly,
Compared with the European and American stock markets, the Japanese stock market tends to be different, with the best medical performance, followed by the consumption of necessities and energy, or related to Japan’s aging.
the republic of korea:
Similar to other countries, the unemployment rate dropped rapidly after the epidemic relaxed. It was 3.6% in 2019, 2.8% in October 2022, 63.6% in 2019, and 64.3% in October this year. The unemployment rate and participation rate performed well.
At present, the capacity utilization rate is 100.1, which is similar to that before the epidemic. The industrial production index is 108 in 2019 and 114.5 in September 2022. It is worth noting that the Korean industrial production index has experienced a process of rising first and then falling.
After unsealing, the consumption performance was poor, the tourism industry did not recover, and the airport throughput was less than half of that before the epidemic.
Like Europe and the United States, South Korea has also implemented fiscal and monetary tightening policies. However, due to its special economic structure, South Korea is more sensitive to external economic turbulence. In October, the Ministry of Finance of South Korea promised to provide 50 trillion won of rescue funds to avoid default in the bond market.
The Korean stock market tends to Europe and the United States, with energy stocks ahead.
Let’s take a look at the commonalities and personalities of various countries. In terms of their performance, they are obviously divided into the Orient and the West.
Among them, the outstanding performance of the westerners is the United States, which shows a good recovery of consumption and production, and a good employment rate. However, the labor force participation rate is low, and inflation is high. The closer to Europe and the United States, the stronger this performance is.
The prominent performance of the Orientalists is Japan, which shows that the consumption and production recovery are average, the employment rate is good, the labor force participation rate is high, and the inflation is low.
Combined with the above performances, it is expected that China’s future performance will be as follows: the recovery of consumption and production is average, the employment rate is good, the labor force participation rate is good, and inflation has picked up, but it is far lower than that in Europe and the United States.
Therefore, many people think that the economy will recover after the epidemic prevention is lifted. It may not be. The most outstanding performance may not be the economy, but the employment rate and labor participation rate.
Today the Wall Street Journal began to report:
The global economy slows, but it seems to avoid recession
Subtitle “Most parts of the global economy may experience contraction, but China’s rebound may offset this weakness”
Thanks to the Wall Street Journal, China’s consumption may recover to a certain extent, but only to a certain extent. After all, “average recovery” is also recovery, but it is impossible to reach the same level as the United States.
The production end may be a process of raising before lowering.
Due to the sluggish consumption and the imminent recession of the United States, the export sector still needs to find another way.