The epidemic and the grim international situation tell us that China’s economic layout needs to be readjusted!

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Author: liguangman source: liguangman freezing point review wechat official account id:ligm-479210127 has been authorized to reprint

On May 30, Shenzhen ningnanshan published the article “supply chain should be redistributed in China – Shanghai’s influence on the whole country from the epidemic situation”, which mainly analyzed Shanghai’s influence on the whole country as China’s economic center from the two industries of new energy vehicles and integrated circuits, and believed that Shanghai’s influence on new energy vehicles and integrated circuits in the whole country was too concentrated. From the situation of the epidemic situation, it had affected China’s economic security. Moreover, it plays an important role not only in the new energy automobile and integrated circuit industries, but also in the medical devices and pharmaceuticals, shipbuilding and aviation industries, including aircraft carrier construction and C919 aircraft manufacturing.

Ning Nanshan concluded that due to the retrogression of globalization, the epidemic and the suppression of China’s rise by countries dominated by the United States, the distribution of supply chains in countries around the world is no longer simply based on cost, market and efficiency, but should consider the autonomy and security of supply chains. The epidemic situation in Shanghai reflects the influence of Shanghai as an economic center on the whole country, especially the huge impact on the automobile industry, which needs to consider the redistribution of the industrial chain in China. Although the total GDP of Shanghai does not account for a very high proportion in the whole country, the impact on the whole country is not only cars, but also semiconductors, medical pharmaceuticals, etc. In contrast, BYD, which has a highly dispersed industrial chain across the country, has become the only automobile enterprise that has not been greatly affected by the Shanghai epidemic, and its sales have maintained growth. Over the past decade, many enterprises in Shenzhen have gradually moved to the mainland. Typical examples are Foxconn’s relocation of a large amount of production capacity to Henan Province, Huawei’s relocation of headquarters to Dongguan, and BYD’s large amount of new investment in Chongqing, Xi’an, Changsha, Qinghai, Jinan and other parts of the country. I think this is a win-win situation. Although the epidemic in Shanghai has a great impact on the national economy, if it can affect and stimulate the redistribution of the supply chain across the country, more and more industries will transfer in China, realize multi-point distribution and backup, and reduce the impact of single point problems on the whole country, which will be a good thing for the security of the domestic supply chain and the personal choice of workers across the country.

I agree with Ning Nanshan’s analysis that focusing China’s major industries and industrial chains too much on the southeast coastal areas of China and even on megacities such as Shanghai is detrimental and unsafe to the national layout of China’s industrial chain, national economic security and the realization of common prosperity. The current severe international situation and the three-month epidemic in Shanghai have also proved this. China should consider this issue from the height of national strategic security, from the perspective of national industrial chain security and balance, and from the political position of realizing common prosperity, and adjust the national economic and industrial layout as soon as possible, so that China will not have national economic paralysis and collapse in the face of a sustained and major catastrophic crisis.

On April 26, I wrote an article “thinking about China’s response to the increasingly severe war and strategic security risks from the Shanghai epidemic”, in which I wrote:

“After the outbreak of this epidemic, there has been a problem in the management of megacities such as Shanghai. This may not be just a problem in Shanghai, but a common problem and common hidden danger of all megacities. In addition, Shanghai is located in the eastern coast of China. Once an uncontrollable biological epidemic occurs in a megacity, once it encounters foreign invasion or other forms of war, a megacity like Shanghai will certainly face serious problems, such as A large number of super high-rise buildings, dense population, living material support, garbage transfer, personnel evacuation and transfer, etc. will face major crises. If the power, water, gas, network and other crises occur, such mega cities will immediately fall into paralysis, chaos and even disaster. “

“In addition, Shanghai has gathered too many resources in education, scientific research and high-end manufacturing. It is also an international financial center. If something goes wrong, it will inevitably lead to a national crisis. When the ice disaster occurred in southern China during the Spring Festival in 2008, I was in Chenzhou, Hunan Province, where the water, electricity and gas were all cut off. That time, I had a deeper feeling about the disaster that the city suffered when the electricity, water and gas were all cut off. Do not think that Shanghai will not encounter Chenzhou This is a kind of disaster. The current international situation is very grim. Coupled with the endless encirclement and suppression by the United States and the west, any accident can happen. “

“Therefore, in the future, China needs to reflect on the development of big cities and megacities, which is a major security issue related to national strategy and overall security. In the future, the road of urban development in China must be redefined, taking into account national strategic security, war factors, major disasters, and the regional layout of politics, economy, education, scientific research and finance, so as to guide the national development focus to the central and western regions . to guide small and medium-sized cities and towns, not to be trapped by the coast, not to be kidnapped by real estate, and to put national security first. This is an important warning and reflection left by Shanghai’s performance in this epidemic prevention. “

Now let’s make an in-depth analysis from the following six aspects.

First, for a long time, China has regarded urbanization and urbanization rate as an important indicator of China’s development. This indicator, like the worship of GDP indicator, has caused too serious dependence on China’s development and left serious potential safety hazards. Cities are becoming larger and larger, large cities and megacities have more and more people, and important universities, scientific research institutions, important industries The industrial chains are all concentrated in the super large-scale cities in the eastern coastal areas, and then from the super cities to the coastal urban agglomerations and Bay areas. As a result, China’s population, economy, manufacturing industry, industrial chain and wealth are increasingly concentrated in the coastal super cities. This economic and industrial layout is very unsafe for the national strategic security, and even has serious security risks, The three-month suspension of production in Shanghai due to the epidemic has had a serious impact on the whole country, which fully proves that we should not blindly believe in urbanization and urbanization rate, nor in super cities such as Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou. Instead, we should rearrange the industrial chain from the perspective of national strategic security.

Second, the current international situation is very grim. Taiwan is still isolated overseas. The forces of Taiwan independence are still rampant. The forces of the United States, Japan and other hostile countries are using Taiwan’s still split state to carry out military provocations against China. Both the United States and Japan are clamouring to interfere with China’s Liberation of Taiwan and reunification of the motherland by force, which constitutes a huge strategic pressure on China. Our country mainly distributes the important education, scientific research institutions, important industries and industrial chains in the coastal megacities. Once a major disaster or even war occurs, it will certainly affect the overall economic security of our country and interrupt the operation of the entire industrial chain of our country. The Shanghai epidemic and the suspension of production in Shanghai have seriously affected China’s automobile, shipbuilding (including military industry) and semiconductor industries, which has put forward an important warning to China’s economic layout. We must not put all our eggs in the same basket.

Third, the central and western regions of China have a vast territory, a large population, an important energy base and sufficient water resources. For many years, China has been engaged in the west to East power transmission, West to East Gas Transmission and west to East computing. In addition, there are important high-quality universities in Hubei, Shaanxi, Sichuan, Chongqing and Hunan, which can undertake the industrial transfer and economic migration from the eastern coastal areas to the central and western regions as a whole, To form a complete and safe industrial chain in the central and western regions. It is of great significance for the realization of national strategic security to get rid of the economic worship in the eastern coastal areas and the worship of megacities and to balance the economic layout in the whole territory of China.

Fourth, considering the strategy of achieving common prosperity and rural revitalization, we should also adjust the strategic layout and industrial layout of the central and western regions. For a long time, China’s economy has been high in the East and low in the West. The eastern economy has been crushing the western economy, which is not conducive to the balanced development of the national economy, common prosperity and Rural Revitalization. Only with the balanced development of the East, the middle and the west, and the balanced layout and development of some important manufacturing industries, emerging industries and industrial chains in the country, can we not only ensure strategic security, but also solve the problem that the central and western regions lag behind the eastern regions for a long time or even forever. Therefore, the re layout of industries and industrial chains between the East and the central and western regions is not only an economic problem, but also a political problem.

Fifth, we must not allow the worship of megacities to continue. The Shanghai epidemic has exposed the serious problems hidden in megacities. In the future, we may face more serious biological war risks, the risk of military conflict between China and the United States and Japan, the possible energy crisis, food crisis, life supply crisis, power grid collapse, massive unemployment caused by economic depression and major risks of social instability. In case of concentrated outbreak of diseases in big cities, tens of millions of people in big cities will face serious problems of life security, social stability and medical security. Therefore, we must now conduct in-depth research on the limits of urban development scale, industrial scale, population scale, transportation and economic scale, as well as the negative impact of excessive industrial concentration on the national economic safety belt. We can no longer plan our economy based on the trend of big cities, megacities, megacities and urban agglomerations. Instead, we should adjust to the central and western regions, medium-sized cities and towns, and develop to the rural economy and township economy, so as to reduce the strategic security risk of megacities to China and solve the risk of regional economic imbalance.

Sixth, in terms of national economic layout, we should not blindly worship the free market economy. We should not allow cities to develop in a larger and larger direction. We should not place the national industrial chain and high-end manufacturing industry in a big city like Shanghai. Instead, we should be led by the state, re planned, promoted by the government, and nationwide layout. This is not only an economic issue, but also a people’s livelihood issue, but also a national security issue, So this is a major political issue. The balance between the East, central and western regions, between the north and the south, between urban and rural areas, and between large cities and small and medium-sized cities should be an important yardstick for us to grasp. It is not an absolute average, but we must emphasize balance, which is of great significance to China’s healthy economic development, national strategic security and people’s common prosperity in the coming decades or even centuries.

Now it is time for deep reflection. Only through deep reflection, understanding the problems and seeing the way ahead can we achieve balanced development, achieve stability and achieve a long-term goal, eliminate strategic security risks, calmly deal with crises when they come, and have a stable economic system, healthy industrial chain and stable social operation when war comes. This may be a difficult choice for China, But it is a major choice we must make.

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