Author: Lu Kewen Source: official account: Lu Kewen Studio has been authorized to reprint
On the last day of November 2022, in the rare cold wind, Guangzhou launched a number of precise prevention and control measures. The temporary control area was unsealed, so that residents could go out and have free activities. Many nucleic acid sites were closed, and enclosures were removed.
The number of new infections on that day was 6942, including 1313 new local infections and 5629 asymptomatic infections.
In Chongqing, where the epidemic is serious, 206 cases were newly added and 6433 cases were asymptomatic.
Under the background that the national epidemic data is still at a high level and 35000-4000 infected people are kept one day, and on the premise that Shijiazhuang has been liberalized to a certain extent and has been urgently revised, the epidemic prevention in Guangzhou has been significantly liberalized compared with the past. Tianhe Liwan Panyu Haizhu has resumed its catering, the city’s public transportation has resumed its operation, the fence water horse has been removed, and taking the subway does not need to check the nucleic acid for 24 hours, just green code, etc, Does it make people feel that the epidemic is about to open up?
It is not critical. In fact, this situation in Guangzhou is called optimization rather than opening up. It is far from real opening up.
Since more than a month ago, the cumulative number of infections in Guangzhou has exceeded 150000, and there are only 9 severe cases, without any death.
However, the closed area control has brought great inconvenience to people’s lives, especially the “hands off and mouth off” workers, who almost forced people to desperate survival, so fierce conflicts broke out in some urban villages.
According to the speech made by Sun Chunlan, Vice Premier of the State Council, at the Health Commission on November 30, the pathogenicity of Omicron virus has weakened, vaccination has been popularized, and prevention and control experience has been accumulated. China’s epidemic prevention and control is facing new situations and tasks.
According to the data of 150,000 infections in Guangzhou and only a few serious cases, people are tired of endless large-scale nucleic acids, and the losses caused by economic life are even more difficult to measure. The original epidemic management model of nucleic acids that can not be moved to close down the city every day can no longer keep up with the current development.
Recently, people have been so angry about Zhang Hezi’s nucleic acid career, which indirectly reflects the dissatisfaction of the people with movable nucleic acids.
I believe that local governments do not want to be so tired and laborious. However, there have been cases where civil servants have been punished due to poor management of the epidemic, and we dare not neglect them. We will do everything according to the original regulations.
In order to show that they have fulfilled their responsibilities, some local governments have increased their efforts. If something really happens, they can at least show that “we have done our best, and our attitude is still correct”, so as to reduce the punishment.
When the epidemic was serious in Shenzhen, my friend went to a city in Jiangxi on business and told him to turn back directly at the highway entrance. Nucleic acid was not allowed to enter the city for 24 hours, which is the embodiment of layers of coding.
In fact, I believe that only a few people make profits from the epidemic. Or, after the epidemic has stabilized, some people find the industrial chain and take advantage of the situation. In most places, strict overweight and repeated nucleic acids are used to maintain their basic market.
I think it is more likely to seek stability and less likely to seek benefits.
After all, epidemic prevention has brought great economic losses to the local people, and the gains from nucleic acid and shelter can not be completely compensated.
It was not until the middle of November that the new 20 rules for epidemic prevention were issued, which gave the local government a legal basis for its support.
Note that the greatest effect of the new 20 articles on epidemic prevention is to give the local government a legal basis, so that they can stretch their limbs without curling up in a small area for strict epidemic prevention.
With this jurisprudential basis, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, was the first to stand up for the trial and error of local governments across the country and take the lead in implementing 20 articles.
On November 13, the website of Shijiazhuang Municipal Government released a letter to all citizens, starting the journey of epidemic prevention and ice breaking.
However, Shijiazhuang seems to be running a little too fast, and the epidemic prevention policy has been tightened in a few days. On November 21, nucleic acid screening was carried out in Qiaoxi District, Chang’an District, Yuhua District, Xinhua District, High tech Zone, etc., and residents in high-risk areas were required to stay at home for five days in principle.
On the first day of implementing the 20 policies in Shijiazhuang, the local people were afraid to go out on the street. A netizen in Shijiazhuang told me that they were not afraid of the epidemic but were afraid of changes in policies.
In fact, not only the citizens of Shijiazhuang think so, but also the local governments.
With the experience of Shijiazhuang this time, the epidemic prevention in all parts of the country has become more strict. Within a few days, a large number of relatively fierce social events occurred in China.
Epidemic prevention has been opposed to people’s life to a certain extent. Some people have proposed to live without nucleic acid, but the promotion in Shijiazhuang has not been successful. What should we do now?
Finally, Guangzhou will be positioned as a new benchmark city of 20, giving a sample to other local governments across the country.
At present, the proofing work in Guangzhou is much more successful than that in Shijiazhuang.
However, it should be noted that Guangzhou only took a small turn, not a sharp one, and all its operations were still within the scope of 20.
Guangzhou has not been fully liberalized, but it is still optimized.
Guangzhou does not expand the scope of nucleic acid testing, and generally does not carry out nucleic acid testing for all employees according to administrative regions. However, for risk posts and key personnel, nucleic acid testing will still be carried out.
Guangzhou is not without closure, but only for people in key areas, and only for unit buildings rather than residential areas.
Some Guangzhou citizens turned red on November 30 due to the secret health code, which originally required centralized isolation. Now they have received a notice that they should be isolated at home, and they can transfer the code after three inspections in five days.
However, if they are really positive, they should be isolated in a centralized way.
There is only one positive infected person who is a mother. Because she has to take care of her son with depression, she made an exception to live in isolation.
To put it simply, the current epidemic prevention is “everything with positive infection is as usual, and the life of ordinary people should not be affected as much as possible”.
It takes 24 hours to go anywhere in Shenzhen, and it takes 24 hours to stay in a hotel or enter a shopping mall; Beijing requires at least 48 hours of nucleic acid. You need 48 hours of nucleic acid to enter a park or go to an office.
Shenzhen is especially close to Hong Kong, and Beijing is especially the national hub. Neither of these two places has reached the level of optimization in Guangzhou. It is said that liberalization is impossible.
And I have repeatedly said that our current government’s ruling habit is not to take a sharp turn, but to take it slowly, bit by bit. Because this country is too big, 1.4 billion people, the world’s largest industrial country, taking a sharp turn is very easy to cause accidents. This is also a major setback, which brings experience and training.
The habit of doing things in China is to pilot in one place first, or to fully pilot, to implement all conceivable situations, and then to promote them nationwide.
Therefore, my judgment is that the pilot project in Shijiazhuang has not been successful. Guangzhou is a successful pilot city optimized nationwide. All the behavioral logic of Guangzhou is still within the scope of 20 rules, which is far from being truly open.
The real opening will probably wait until March next year. After all, there is still a buffer period for the promotion to the whole country after the success of the pilot project in Guangzhou.
Last night, the Guangzhou Tower also showed a slogan: Everyone is the first responsible person for their own health.
I made it clear that everyone should take good care of themselves.
In conclusion, the state of mind of most people has indeed changed since the epidemic started, but the country cannot take a sharp turn, nor can it. Be patient and move forward slowly.