Original: housha source wechat official account: housha has been authorized to reprint
When EU politicians were still busy arguing about whether to implement the seventh round of sanctions against Russia, Europeans suddenly found that the euro, which had been strong for more than 20 years, was falling in a “free fall” and could not see to the end.
July 12 (European time) is a historical node: the lowest price of the euro against the US dollar on that day is 0.9999.
On the 13th, it was 0.9998, on the 14th, it was 0.9952, on the 15th, it returned to 1:1.0041, and then the euro and the US dollar fluctuated slightly in the range of 1:1.
Half a year ago, it was about 1.13, if you look at a year ago, it was 1.1857, a depreciation of 15%.
In terms of the RMB, on July 13, the exchange rate of the euro against the RMB was 6.7602, up from 7.8183 a year ago, with a depreciation of 14%. The family remittance of Chinese students studying in Europe can save more than 10000 yuan (with the remittance of 10000 euros as the reference standard), but what about the remittance home of people doing business in Europe? Lost.
Many European Monetary experts, economic analysts, and media and financial commentators are anxiously warning that the disaster has just begun.
Because this is not just the problem of the euro, but the whole European economy is facing big trouble.
People are asking, “what happened to the euro?”
A joke: the euro was badly beaten by Zelensky.
The last time the euro fell so miserably, it was not long after it was launched on January 1st, 1999. A Kosovo war hit the euro, which was initially about 1 to 1 with the US dollar, to 0.8220 (2000).
Behind this euro “disaster” is the same role – “NATO”.
Zelensky dances around wearing a green T-shirt every day, but he is just a clown in front of the stage of NATO.
Who controls NATO? U.S.A.
Who holds Zelensky as a “God”? It is also the United States.
But Europe is still like this — those who do not support Ukraine, those who do not applaud Zelensky’s speech, and those who do not join the anti Russian camp are all “heretics”, aren’t they?
Since the Russian military took special military action on February 24, the euro has fallen all the way.
There are three direct reasons for the decline of the euro:
1? The rush of energy sanctions against Russia led to a general energy crisis and food crisis in European countries, which further led to an increase in the cost of industrial production in Europe, and even Germany had its first trade deficit in more than 30 years.
2? The European Union fully cooperated with the United States and kicked one Russian bank after another out of the swift system from the end of February. Russia countered by “refusing to purchase its own energy in dollars and euros”. This has led to a sharp decline in the use of the euro and greatly limited its scope of use.
3? International capital began to flee when the euro was 1:1.08 to the dollar (around March 8), and at least nearly $100 billion of capital was transferred to countries with relatively strong currencies, especially the United States. Capital flight exacerbated the depreciation of the euro.
Even knowing these reasons, the EU cannot “save itself”. Because this requires the EU to immediately ease its relations with Russia and abandon sanctions on Russia in the fields of energy, finance and trade from the standpoint of safeguarding its own interests. But is it possible?
These pig like politicians in the EU have been fooled there. At a press conference held in Prague on July 15, the vice president of the European Commission chevcovic said that the EU was ready to abandon the seventh round of sanctions against Russia and improve the details of the previous sanctions.
However, some countries such as Poland and Lithuania insisted that the EU implement the seventh round of sanctions against Russia.
However, European politicians who can still keep a clear mind can no longer see it. Also on the 15th, Hungarian prime minister Orban mocked the EU leadership and said: at first, I thought we were just shooting at our feet, but now it seems that this is shooting at our lungs. Therefore, the European economy is suffocating.
The vice president came out to speak softly, while the president of the European Commission von der Laine was “silent” and no longer beeping everywhere. Maybe she was waiting for Washington’s instructions. After all, the future of her family is in the United States.
For the United States, provoking the Ukrainian crisis, creating war, and then kidnapping Europe by NATO can kill two birds with one stone.
First, the United States uses Ukraine to consume Russia and plunge Europe and Russia into a long-term state of hostility;
Secondly, the Ukrainian crisis was used to attack the European industrial production capacity and competitiveness of industrial products, lay the euro’s ability to challenge the dollar, and finally destroy the prospect of “European integration”.
Ukraine is just a tool for the United States to harvest Europe. It doesn’t matter whether this country can still exist. The important thing is to let the United States replenish its blood. This will be a feast of human flesh.
The practice of EU politicians is extremely abnormal. For example, Italian Prime Minister Draghi, who is in the process of resigning, was originally the president of the European Central Bank, and his performance was quite excellent in the 2008 European debt crisis.
However, he also ran to Ukraine to make a pilgrimage to zeliansky in Kiev.
After receiving the “edict”, he came back full of defending the “values”. When the situation got out of hand, he wanted to pat his ass and leave, but the president didn’t agree.
As the third largest economy of the EU and a member of the G7, Italy is an epitome of the EU.
Italian society is facing serious energy crisis, high inflation, economic recession, soaring prices, epidemic rebound and other problems. Nearly 11% of agricultural enterprises are on the verge of bankruptcy, and about 30% are operating at a loss, mainly because the price of chemical fertilizer has increased by 170%, diesel oil has increased by 129%, and feed has increased by 90%. The cost has been significantly higher than the income.
If you want to increase income and maintain business, the price of milk, meat, fruits, vegetables and even food in Italy must rise.
The Italian people will pay 657 euros more this year just because of the rise in fuel and electricity prices, plus these additional expenses, what is the result?
Draghi’s solution was to launch the 26billion euro “aid bill”, which was opposed by the joint ruling “five star movement” party, because this method could not save ordinary families, let alone enterprises.
European media said that Draghi was out of standard, but did other European countries finally have to do the same?
The question is, once the aid bill of various countries is introduced, where will the money come from? The only way is to expand the government budget deficit, and then leave the mess to the next government.
When the fiscal hole gets bigger and bigger, countries such as Italy will ask the EU for money, subsidies and bailout funds. Then, the “five European pig countries” came again. Finally, Germany, a big spender, paid for it.
Italy can’t always ask Germany to shoulder its responsibilities. Are you going to drag Germany down again?
When Germany collapses, the euro is over, the euro is over, and European integration is over. Who will laugh happily? Von delaine and her boss.
The root causes of the euro crisis
The euro is very unique. It is the only global common currency that exists independent of sovereign countries and is based on the capitalist economic market system.
It is EU law (transfer of judicial sovereignty of relevant countries) that maintains the normal use order of the euro.
Long ago, European “careerists” wanted to unify the country, establish a “European country”, and then issue a unified European currency.
However, the “European State” does not exist politically and will never appear.
Therefore, the European Union, an economic organization that was originally just a “regional market community”, did the opposite, issuing euros first, then moving towards “European integration”, and finally achieving “European countries”.
Then, in the stage of consolidation, promotion and expansion of the euro zone, other countries are willing to accept the euro because of the economic strength of the EU dual core. In short, Germany and France are the guarantor countries of the euro credit.
Therefore, the EU must focus on economic development and reduce any political intervention, because it is originally the result of the “capitalist economic market system”.
The Merkel Government is sober, and she has done two things at the same time:
1? Germany has successfully obtained cheap and sufficient energy and raw materials (oil, natural gas, minerals, fertilizers, etc.) from Russia, which has greatly reduced the cost of industrial products in Germany and Europe and improved the competitiveness of similar products outside the EU, especially the automotive industry;
2? Find the largest and most potential consumer market in the world, that is, China with rapid economic development. China is still a developing country, and its market prospect is the “oasis of life” for German and European enterprises.
On this basis, the Merkel Government also officially launched the “German industry 4.0” strategy at the Hannover Industrial Expo 2013, in order to maintain Germany’s dominant position in the field of science and technology and move towards a digital, intelligent and personalized future.
All this will make the euro more stable and the world’s confidence in the euro further strengthened. But the problem is that when the euro becomes the second largest, the United States is bound to fight against the euro to maintain its unchallengeable dollar hegemony.
The United States successfully created the Ukrainian crisis, but in 2015, Germany and France also successfully signed the Minsk agreement with Russia, resolved the crisis, and successfully built “Beixi 2”.
However, last year, after the establishment of the new three party coalition government in Germany, it was like taking the wrong medicine, putting the cart before the horse, ignoring economic interests, and taking politics as the main axis of policy.
The European Union is an economic organization, not a political organization. It is far from the political organization “European country”.
As a result of the so-called devastating sanctions imposed by the European Union on Russia, the ruble survived in less than half a year, while the euro was beaten to the ground.
When the euro cannot purchase Russian energy, depreciation is inevitable. What’s more, the EU itself does not have sufficient energy security like the United States.
This will be an extremely serious blow to the European economy. The two advantages established by Merkel are facing the situation of disappearing at the same time. The United States will be very happy to see this scene.
China’s large list of purchasing European Airbus has sent a positive economic signal to the EU.
I hope the politicians of EU countries can understand China’s intentions and walk out of an independent path.
Otherwise, the tragedy of the euro will become a European nightmare!
The saddest thing is, is Zelensky worth everything you do for him?