Author: Sheng Tang Rusong Source WeChat official account: The Shopkeeper’s Dao has been reprinted with authorization
After the outbreak of the Russia Ukraine war, many new active countries emerged in the world, such as Türkiye and Iran. Of course, there are also Saudi Arabia and other countries, as well as Southeast Asian countries.
Recently, the Wall Street Journal reported that the OPEC oil producing countries led by Saudi Arabia will increase their oil production by 500000 barrels per day. As soon as the news came out, the international crude oil futures prices fell sharply, with a drop of more than 6%. However, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and other major OPEC oil producing countries subsequently denied the news. Within a few hours, the crude oil prices rose back to the original point. And slightly higher. In just a few hours, the international crude oil futures market appeared a deep V pattern that made financial players love and hate the double sky. Those who love are naturally the publishers of information, and a few hours are enough for them to earn a lot of money from it. Those who hate are naturally those who passively let the market drive operations, because in just a few hours, their losses will be incalculable astronomical. This is also a regular operation for Wall Street to make money. Grasping the right of information discourse, you can make a big part of your pocket by sending a message at random. In the view of the financial giants on Wall Street, the easy way to make money is not because of their ability to predict the market, but because of their ability to manipulate the market. The greater the ability, the more money.
Of course, this time I’m not talking about how Wall Street makes money. What I want to say is that Saudi Arabia and other countries can still adhere to their energy production policies under the explicit hint of the United States, which in itself means that the United States has less control over the Middle East. This reduction is reflected in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other countries. It is only a soft resistance, but it is hard to overcome in Türkiye and Iran. We can see how much Türkiye has benefited from the Russian Ukrainian war in the past few months. From coordinating the food transport channel between the United Nations and Russia and Türkiye, to cooperating with Russia to establish a new European energy transit hub, to Türkiye building a strategic buffer zone on the Syrian side, it can be said that the confrontation between the United States and Russia has made Türkiye one of the major winners in this confrontation. Although Americans hate it to the bone, they can only plan some unpopular terrorist attacks to counter Türkiye’s “madness”. But these attacks will only make Türkiye more aware of how important it is to have its own independent defense force.
Compared with Türkiye’s opening and closing in recent months, Iran’s moves are more feminine and resilient. Not long ago, Iranians arrested several French and some British people in dealing with problems in the domestic upheaval. The reason is that they have undermined Iran’s national security in this great upheaval. It should be noted that as the main backbone country of the European Union, Iran has always been more hopeful about France, hoping that France can hold a more neutral stance in the Iran nuclear negotiations, so that the US Iran negotiations will become more conducive to Iran. Today’s Iran obviously doesn’t care much about France’s attitude. It publicly arrests French agents and condemns what the French government has done in Iran. The reason for its tough attitude is not that the French didn’t do these dirty things before, but that Iran has no hope for Iran’s nuclear negotiations and has lost its respect and extravagance for Europe.
The disrespect for France comes from Europe’s cowardice and unwiseness in the Russian Ukrainian war. This shows Iran that the importance of Europe to Iran has been greatly reduced. If Europe cannot properly handle the Russian Ukrainian crisis this time, then what reason does Iran have to respect a person who is full of stains? How can you expect a country or international organization that can’t even handle its own security to help you clean your body? Therefore, the weakness of Europe exposed in the Russia Ukraine war made Europe lose the respect that Iran and other countries and regions in the world should have.
Of course, Iran not only looked down upon Europe as a soft egg, but also gave the United States and Israel a strong stimulus. It is reported that Iran has recently opened the refining production line for 60% enriched uranium. I remember that when Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement in 2017, Iran was still trying to use 20% enriched uranium as a weapon against the United States. In five years, in a flash, Iran has increased this number to 60% in the intermittent Iran nuclear negotiations. And this 60% is not for verification, but for mass production. The next step of this 60% is the threshold of 80% highly enriched uranium. Has Iran broken through this threshold? No one can guarantee that there are no Iranians. It is believed that within two years, Iranians should possess weapons grade enriched uranium with a concentration of more than 90%. At that time, the pushing and shoving negotiations between the United States and Iran would be meaningless.
Let’s not say what step Iran can take in uranium enrichment. He dares to announce his highly enriched uranium refining project so brazenly, which is in itself a show of disdain and fear for the strength of the United States in the Middle East. Why? The continuation and intensity of the Russian Ukrainian war is obviously one of the main reasons. Although Russia is currently under great pressure in the Russian Ukrainian battlefield, it has transferred the energy and strength of the West to this battlefield, which brings a sense of relaxation to other places and countries in the world. Since 2016, Türkiye has been at odds with the United States, and since that year, Russia and Türkiye, which are similar to each other, have become good friends. That year, I judged that this was the beginning of Türkiye’s deliberate eastward turn. [In the program of Phoenix TV], since the Russian Ukrainian war broke out this year, the whole world’s attention has been focused on Ukraine, and the energy of the whole western world has also been transferred to Ukraine. At the same time, of course, Americans should also focus on the Asia Pacific. Although this situation is not really two wars, [Americans have said that they can win two wars at the same time, that is, Europe and East Asia]. However, the energy paid by the United States is no less than that of dealing with two wars. This gives non US allies in the Middle East a chance to breathe. For example, Iran also gives countries in the region that have their own ideas and want to become regional leaders a chance to show their ambitions. For example, Türkiye also gives those countries that were cautious about the United States and timid about dealing with the United States some opportunities to look at the world, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
A few days ago, German Prime Minister Schultz made it clear at the Economic Summit of the South German Journal that “the time when Europe and North America enjoyed the best dividend in the world has gone forever. It is difficult to have a stable growth economy, low inflation rate and high employment rate again.” This is consistent with my previous article on new trends in East Asia. Europe and the United States may still exist as the high point of the world economy, but this high point is not exclusive to them. Under the trend of the overall economic development in East Asia, the exclusive power of Europe and the United States over the world economy has been weakened or even cut off.
Against this backdrop, Europe and the United States, especially the United States, are bound to be left to the right. In the end, when we can only focus on Eastern Europe and East Asia, let the power structure in the Middle East change as it has to accept. Iran and Türkiye are the pioneers of this change, and Saudi Arabia and other countries will also become the embodiment of this change.
Next, we will see what measures the US, Europe and Israel will take against Iran’s radical action. If the United States can only speak hard, but can’t do anything about it, it is inevitable that Iran will make a breakthrough in nuclear research and development within two or three years. At that time, the Middle East will no longer be the exclusive dividend region of the United States and Europe, but a region that can reflect regional self-awareness. This display of self-awareness may not be absolutely detrimental to the United States, but at the very least, once the Middle East has the right to choose itself and is able to choose its friendly partners, the United States is at least not the country they will inevitably choose and look forward to, and the world will become more heated.
At this time, it seems to me that what Russia has done in Ukraine is not only for its own strategic buffer security, but also to attract major firepower. So as to reduce the pressure on other hot spots in the world and make more changes in the world. Whether this method of attracting fire is active or passive, in fact, it does have this effect.