The great change that has not been seen in a century has entered the midfield!

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Author: Wang Tao source: pure science (id:chunkexue)

1? A great change not seen in a century

The emergence of a new prominent political concept must correspond to its specific significance. The “great change” is a very prominent political concept in recent years. This concept has gradually become popular since 2017, but in fact, as soon as the current top Chinese leader took office in 2013, he began to express this idea in different ways. Although there are many interpretations of this concept, it is not only for the Chinese people, but also for everyone in the world. This is because it is not only told to the Chinese people in the domestic environment, but also to foreign friends in a large number of foreign affairs activities. So, no matter how we interpret it, think about how other countries, especially Americans, will interpret this concept. At the beginning of the emergence of this concept, some people discussed time in various ways. They believed that there should be “thousands of years”, “500 years” and “300 years”, but the final stable statement was “none in 100 years”. Is it modest not to say so many years? Of course not. Because the exact meaning is blurred after too many years. So, what will not be a bigger change than this in the past 100 years? In fact, no matter how we interpret it, Americans must be very upset. Therefore, with the emergence of this concept, some people continue to emphasize the need to “hide one’s capabilities and bide one’s time”. Why is there such an argument? The meaning can not be more obvious – the United States has truly become the world leader in the past 100 years! Therefore, the United States dare not face up to the exact meaning of this concept. Since this concept has been around for at least 10 years, it has been strongly emphasized and publicized for at least 5 years. On the surface, the United States has been waging an all-round war with China in recent years. In fact, China has been preparing for the conflicts in recent years.

If Chairman Mao’s protracted war strategy is followed, the trade war and the war on science and technology in the previous years will be the stage of the United States’ all-round offensive. The outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian war this year is a major turning point in the international situation. The great change has also turned into the midfield, that is, into a strategic stalemate, and China will also launch a strategic counter offensive locally.

2? The United States shifted from an all-round attack to a key attack

Among the four laws of China US relations, the fourth law – the law of continuous toss – will play the most important role now and in the future. However, the space for the United States to deal with China is shrinking sharply. At present, there is not much left for the United States to deal with China, mainly the Taiwan Strait and other issues. Therefore, this is the reason why the United States’ operation on the Taiwan issue is becoming more and more extreme. The trade war can be regarded as an all-round attack, and the scientific and technological war focusing on chips is another key attack direction.

The scientific and technological war with chips as the core has been going on for nearly five years. China has made full efforts in chips and is now close to being fully localized at the 28nm level. Because the technological progress of chips has deviated more and more from Moore’s law, and the development speed has been slower and slower, China has more and more time to catch up. In the next five years at most, China will also make breakthroughs in EUV lithography. At that time, the United States basically has few things to check and balance China in science and technology.

On march5,1989, separatists created unrest in Lhasa, Tibet. Martial law was imposed on March 7 and lifted on May 1, 1990. Since then, the United States can only obstruct China by itself or by instigating leaders of other countries to meet with the Dalai Lama. Tibetan society is becoming more and more peaceful and prosperous.

On September 18 of that year, a coal mine in Baicheng County, Aksu Prefecture suffered a terrorist attack, resulting in 16 deaths and 18 injuries. Since then, Xinjiang has gradually moved towards stability, with few terrorist attacks. The CIA staff publicly cried that they could no longer find an informant in Xinjiang.

On September 10, 2012, after Japan adopted the so-called “nationalization” of the Diaoyu Islands in the morning, China issued a statement that night, announcing the baseline of the territorial sea base points of the Diaoyu Islands and their affiliated islands. Subsequently, on the 13th, Ambassador libaodong, China’s permanent representative to the United Nations, deposited with UN Secretary General Ban Ki moon the coordinate table and chart of the baseline of the territorial sea base points of the Diaoyu Island and its affiliated islands. The assistant spokesman of the United Nations Secretary General subsequently said that the Secretary General would properly publish it in accordance with the United Nations Convention on the law of the sea. On november23,2013, the Ministry of national defense of the people’s Republic of China announced the establishment of the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone, including the relevant airspace near the Diaoyu Islands. Since then, the Diaoyu Island has been gradually calm until now.

On july1,2015, the national security law of the people’s Republic of China came into force, providing a systematic legal basis for dealing with disturbances promoted by foreign forces.

After several Chinese islands in the South China Sea were planted in 2016, the United States basically has little room to show its strength. In the South China Sea, China has more than three million ton unsinkable aircraft carrier battle groups. There are Meiji Island, Zhubi Island, Yongshu Island, Huayang Island, Chigua Island, Nanxun Island, Dongmen Island, etc. In addition, the Langhua reef in the the Xisha Islands is also planted.


On january6,2016, two Chinese large civil aircraft landed on Yongshu island.


Before and after december25,2020, yun-20 will take off and land at Yongshu island.


An unsinkable aircraft carrier that can be stationed in a group army.

The United States has just brought all its naval forces over, which is no longer enough for China’s military strength in the South China Sea. From time to time, it brings the navies of several European countries to the South China Sea for a stroll. At most, it is just a show. There is basically no threat.

On march22,2018, then US President trump signed a presidential memorandum against China, officially opening a comprehensive trade war. Soon, the technology war with chips as the core started. But after two years of full-scale trade war, the United States found that it could not gain any advantage at all. Subsequently, on the morning of January 15, 2020, the signing ceremony of the first phase of China US economic and trade agreement was held in the East Hall of the White House, marking the truce of the comprehensive trade war. But is that all? Of course not. According to the fourth law of Sino US relations, the United States must have been preparing for the next toss before the end of one toss against China. Otherwise, it is absolutely impossible to have a truce on a certain battlefield.

In june2019, Hong Kong experienced a major social unrest that lasted more than one year in the name of anti revisionism. Why did this social unrest happen? If you look at it in isolation, you can’t see it clearly, but if you know the fourth law of China US relations, it will be very clear: it was triggered because the China US comprehensive trade war and the science and technology war that started one year ago could not achieve any effect. On June 30, 2020, the law of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the people’s Republic of China on safeguarding national security came into force. Soon Hong Kong society gradually returned to normal, and Hong Kong Independence and unrest elements were gradually cleaned up. Before the turmoil in Hong Kong subsided in 2019, the COVID-19 broke out in Wuhan, the mainland. How well they cooperated. The fourth law of China US relations has been fully and accurately demonstrated.

As early as March, 2020, BCI proposed not to use Xinjiang cotton and asked major brands to respond. Why? After the outbreak of COVID-19 in January, 2020, Wuhan was closed on the 22nd of that month, and strong isolation measures were quickly taken across the country. By March, the outcome of the national zero clearing had been clearly shown. What about this? China cannot be killed by the epidemic! So why did the seemingly inexplicable cotton problem in Xinjiang appear? Some people said that it was because a twisted Chinese girl xuxiuzhong made a lot of rumors about “betraying the country for prosperity”. Can a little girl who can only tell lies make such a big international event? How is this possible? Because the new crown has clearly shown the end of clearing in China in March 2020, according to the fourth law of China US relations, there will inevitably be another event that will add blockage to China. Like the law of conservation of energy and momentum, it is absolutely impossible to lack it after March 2020. Therefore, the gradual elimination of the epidemic situation in China in March will inevitably open another battlefield for China. So far, the fourth law of Sino US relations has never been violated.


On december30,2020, China set up a new category of “interdisciplinary” and set “national safety” and “integrated circuit science and Engineering” as the two first-class disciplines under this category. National security has not only a systematic legal basis, but also a systematic academic support foundation.


By 2022, the cotton problem in Xinjiang will not continue. Will it stop? Of course not. The epidemic broke out again in Hong Kong, followed by a very strange epidemic in Shanghai and Beijing. With the gradual clearance of Shanghai and Beijing and the unexplained pneumonia of children, monkeypox virus began to break out in many countries in the world at the same time, which was very strange and could not be explained from the perspective of epidemiological scientific flow. So far, the fourth law of China US relations has never been violated. If this law is violated, American hegemony is over.

On the evening of February 21, 2022, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out. Many netizens left me a message. Is it the first law of China US Relations: the law of unitary moth has come true again? I was also very confused at that time, because according to the law originally summarized, the single moth cycle should be about 10 years. It is only two years since the emergence of the new crown of the first moth in early 2020. How can there be a new first moth? Now it seems that with the transformation of the strength comparison between the two sides, the time for the United States to launch a new round of action to contain and toss China is getting shorter and shorter, so it is also changing the new cycle of containment and toss faster and faster. In this way, the events of encountering new moths are becoming more and more frequent. At the end of 2021, it was supposed to use the new biological weapons of Omicron to detonate the epidemic in Hong Kong and trigger a major outbreak of the epidemic in Shenzhen, Shanghai and China as a whole. However, it has just begun to operate until half of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out. Russia has seized a large amount of evidence on the development of biological weapons by the United States in Ukraine and exposed it.

At the same time, the issue of manipulating the Taiwan Strait with the help of the Russian Ukrainian crisis has become more and more serious. However, Biden just announced in Japan that the United States would defend Taiwan. Before his words were heard, the worst vicious school shooting in the past decade occurred in Texas on the 24th, killing 21 people. The “single moth law” of the first law of China US relations has been fulfilled more and more frequently.


In addition to the Taiwan Strait, it is hard for the United States to find a place to start making trouble against China, and it is also hard to find a place to start.

3? The conditions for China to turn to strategic stalemate and counter offensive are rapidly maturing

1. military force

In terms of military strength, China’s military strength is growing explosively. Not only did it catch up with the United States in the air force’s stealth fighter technology, the Navy’s aircraft carrier, 055 destroyer, nuclear submarine, UAV, df41 and other technical fields, but also from the df-21d, new and innovative weapon systems such as df-26, df-17, yj-21, the rod of God space-based kinetic energy weapons, laser anti satellite, and cruise missiles continued to emerge, owning more and more new weapons and equipment that the United States did not have, making the United States uneasy. All kinds of rockets and other conventional weapons have also overtaken the US military. Of course, no matter how far our weapons and equipment have developed, the war Bureau will always set a unified tone with “there is still a gap of decades with the US military”.

2. new energy vehicles and major changes in global automobile and energy markets

In April 2022, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China has exceeded one quarter, reaching 25.3%. The model of rapid popularization of pure electric vehicles predicted in my book “pure electric dominates the world” is exponential growth. Although it has been delayed for 3 or 4 years due to problems such as swindling compensation around 2017, it will soon become a reality. In 2021, China’s new energy vehicles re entered the explosive growth channel, with a year-on-year increase of 160% to 3521000. From January to April 2022, China’s new energy vehicle sales totaled 1352000 units, a year-on-year increase of 128.4%. At this rate of development, the sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach more than 8million in 2022. By 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will be close to 100%, and the process of complete elimination of fuel vehicles is entering the fast lane.


At the same time, China’s exports of automobiles, especially new energy vehicles, are very strong. In 2021, China exported 2138000 vehicles, with a year-on-year growth rate of 102%. From January to April 2022, China exported 850000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 44%, including 245000 new energy vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 92%. What does that mean? China’s new energy vehicles have become the climate. Fuel vehicles are “absolutely useless” and will be completely replaced by new energy vehicles. In March, 2022, BYD was the first in the world to announce the complete shutdown of fuel vehicles. In 2022, the auto enterprises that have not stopped production of fuel will go bankrupt. The great change of new energy vehicles has entered the midfield, and the global switch has been completed within five years. Because the only surviving car companies are all producing new energy vehicles. What does this great change mean?

First, the global demand for oil will enter the avalanche decline channel. China’s foreign dependence on oil and energy will be eased rapidly.

Second, China will rapidly and fundamentally change the pattern of the global automobile industry with the east wind of new energy vehicles. In the next few years, China’s automobile exports will grow to more than 10 million. The share of Chinese auto companies in the global auto market will be a monopolist like mobile phones and TV.

Third, the United States will completely lose its grip on China’s neck through the oil energy card, which is of great strategic value. Not only will the demand for oil decline rapidly, but also the diversification of China’s energy imports will rapidly ease China’s energy security situation, especially the strategic oil security situation. In 2020, China’s oil import volume will be 540 million tons, and its external dependence will be 73.6%. Although people’s attention is focused on chips, in fact, for the real strategic security, the strategic security problem of oil is far more serious than that of chips, which is not an order of magnitude. If there is a war, China is not worried about the chip being stuck, but it is very worried about the oil channel being cut off. However, in 2021, the long-term surge in oil imports will end, decreasing by 5.4% to 513million tons. China’s oil import volume in 2020 is likely to be a permanent peak in history. Due to the explosive development of new energy vehicles, the external dependence on oil will be reduced below the risk warning line of 49% by 2025, and then it will be avalanched to less than 20% by 2030. This is the time when China can completely let go of the final settlement of China US relations and the Taiwan Strait issue without worrying about any constraints.

3. great changes in energy

In 2020, the cost of photovoltaic and wind power will begin to be lower than that of coal power. As a result, the great change in energy has also entered the midfield, and photovoltaic and wind power have entered the stage of barrier free and explosive growth. According to the data of China Electricity Council, the power development pattern of China from January to April 2022 is shown in the following table:


It is worth noting that PV has occupied the first place in the new installed capacity, and more than doubled that of thermal power. The proportion in the new installed capacity has exceeded 40%, and the year-on-year growth rate has reached 138.42%. The newly added installed capacity of wind power also exceeds that of thermal power (although the installed capacity and power generation of the two cannot be simply compared). In the future, photovoltaic and wind power will enter the stage of long-term explosive growth. Not only will China’s thermal power rapidly enter the avalanche descent channel, but also photovoltaic and wind power will be exported overseas on a large scale.

Therefore, there is no need to talk about carbon emissions from now on. It is a problem, but it is a problem that does not need to be considered and solved, because the ultra-high speed development of new energy vehicles, photovoltaic and other new energy power generation will soon make fossil energy enter the avalanche decline channel.

4. International Monetary upheaval

Many people may mention that the greatest advantage of the United States is that it has the hegemony of the dollar. This is really good. However, everything has a problem of quantity. The US dollar has a hegemonic advantage. As long as you print money, you can exchange it for something. However, there must be a quantitative limit to this advantage. In the past, the United States traded for things from abroad by printing US dollars, and then recovered the printed US dollars by cutting leeks and collecting wool through the financial crisis. Only in this way can the US dollar advantage be maintained for a long time. But since 1998, the dollar game has not worked very well. In the Asian financial crisis in 1998, the United States lost the financial war in Hong Kong, and the US dollar game began to be difficult.


Since the 1970s, the US government debt has been growing. However, since its GDP is also growing, as long as the growth of debt does not exceed the growth of GDP, the problem is not big. However, it can be seen that the slope of the segmented debt growth straight line simply fitted with the light blue dotted line in the above figure is basically increasing and only slightly decreasing in a few years. Especially after 2000, the slope of debt growth has been increasing. It will slow down slightly from 2015 to 2019. This is really a little bit of a compliment. I understand that the economy improved during the period when Wang Gang took office. But there will be a nearly vertical rise in 2020. Up to now, although it has slowed down slightly, it is still growing at a rate much higher than the GDP growth rate.


This is the ratio of U.S. government debt to GDP. It can be seen that before 1985, this proportion was below 40%. It has been growing since then. From 1995 to 2000, under the leadership of Clinton, through the Internet revolution, the U.S. economy really made great progress only by its own technology and economic development, and the proportion of government debt in GDP even narrowed for a time. But it has increased again since 2000. Especially after 2008, there were two peaks of sharp growth. First, the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 led to its rapid growth from about 65% to more than 100%. From 108% in April of 2020 when the US epidemic broke out, it rose sharply to 133.755% in March of 2021. At present, it is about 130%. In the past 14 years alone, the US government debt to GDP ratio has doubled. The corresponding increase in debt was from less than 10trillion to 30trillion. After 2008, what has the United States gained by consuming such a large dollar advantage? What has been added? The answer was nothing. The more China is tossed about, the more pointless the dollar advantage will be lost. Just because we wanted to use biological warfare to harass China, we ended up harassing ourselves and spending more than $800 billion in vain. Why not use this $8trillion to build infrastructure, enhance chip research and development, increase investment in science and technology, or even develop new weapons to at least maintain an effective threat to China? The result is that China has lost its $8trillion advantage just because it wants to use biological warfare to engage China. Based on the current 10-year interest rate of US dollar treasury bonds of 2.76%, the annual interest rate of 30trillion government bonds alone needs to exceed 800billion US dollars.

In july2009, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton first proposed the “return to the Asia Pacific” strategy at the ASEAN meeting. It was later changed to “Asian rebalancing”. Up to now, there have been different opinions and practices in different periods, but the United States is in fact a continuation of its policy to fully target China. The result of rebalancing is that our government debt is becoming more and more unbalanced, and the dollar is becoming more and more unbalanced.

In 2000, the proportion of global countries’ reserves to US dollars was about 72%, and by the beginning of 2022, it had dropped to less than 60%. At present, the proportion of US dollars in global currency payments has also dropped to 38.85%.

In the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Russia has proved that it can completely abandon the dollar by using its own resource advantages. This is the result that the United States led a group of younger brothers to expel the Russian Ruble from swift. Its greatest historical significance lies in that the US dollar hegemony is far from invincible as people thought in the past.


There are three main currency anchors of the US dollar: oil, military power and science and technology. Because of the new energy revolution, the international trade scale of oil will shrink sharply, and it will no longer be a suitable international currency anchor. American military power will no longer have an overwhelming advantage. Due to the third law of Sino US Relations (the law of containment and contravenness), the ultimate failure of using chips to sanction China will prove that the US science and technology no longer has an overwhelming position.

Therefore, as the three major currency anchors of the international currency, the US dollar will collapse completely by 2030 at the latest. This is the fundamental reason why countries are selling dollar reserves faster and faster. However, in the past, the United States excessively bet its own interests on the international monetary status of the US dollar. Whoever dared to move this foundation, the United States would do anything to suppress it, and even destroy its country and its owner by means of war. All problems are solved by printing money. The reliance on and consumption of the dollar’s advantages are in an endless state. This strategy determines that the cost of maintaining the position of the US dollar is getting higher and higher, but the income is getting lower and lower, and the expenditure relying on the US dollar is getting larger and more. The United States has long been in a state of huge losses on the dollar, but it is still in a deep quagmire.

4? Great changes in the space for solving the Taiwan Strait issue

1. why is it impossible for Taiwan to become independent openly?

Because there are fewer and fewer hands left to be used to deal with China, the operation of the United States on the Taiwan Strait issue has continued to develop in an extreme direction, which makes many Chinese people very upset. Is there a fundamental solution to this problem? This is not to say how to unify Taiwan, but to fundamentally and thoroughly cut off the United States as the starting point for China. The vast majority of Chinese people may feel that this is almost impossible, but the real innovation is to make possible what was once considered impossible.

The United States has an upper limit on the operation of the Taiwan Strait issue, that is, it is absolutely impossible to truly allow Taiwan’s open independence

Many people talked about this issue in the past, but they did not talk about the real key. Imagine what would happen if Taiwan publicly declared independence at the instigation of the United States? We must not just think about Wutong first, but first see how the United States will react? Can it formally recognize Taiwan? What if the United States admits it? The inevitable consequence is that China and the United States will immediately break off diplomatic relations, because this is a very clear red line on the mainland, or more accurately, a high-voltage line, and you will die if you encounter it. This is why the mainland, when facing the provocation of the United States on the Taiwan Strait issue, often uses the implicit words “the earth and mountains will shake between China and the United States” to warn the precise meaning. What are the consequences of the severance of diplomatic relations between China and the United States? This is of course extremely serious. Just a few simple examples: for all Americans holding Chinese visas, their visas will be cancelled and they will leave the Chinese Mainland within a time limit. Similarly, Chinese people in the United States (including hundreds of thousands of Chinese Mainland students studying in the United States and their families) will also leave the United States within a time limit. This is not a question of expelling a few diplomats from the other side. What is the impact on the United States? Let’s just give a small example.

Many years ago, I often went to Atlanta on business. Once, I had dinner with a former colleague who had immigrated to Atlanta. He was doing logistics business in Atlanta. During the dinner, he complained that the local people in Atlanta were so short-sighted. Because there are many Chinese students in Atlanta, local people say that the families of Chinese students buy houses in Atlanta, which has raised the local housing prices. As a result, there was constant uproar. Finally, a law was issued to restrict Chinese people from studying in the local area. In the past, the number of international students in Atlanta was more than 4000 every year, which seemed not very large. However, because the families of these overseas students may buy houses locally, the grandparents of these students may also come to live with them. Because of these Chinese people, many intermediary services, restaurants, lawyers, supermarkets and other businesses have flourished, attracting more employees. After the promulgation of the law restricting Chinese students studying abroad, all these corresponding businesses and related personnel were cleared at one time, that is, more than 30000 people left. As a result, the whole Atlanta real estate market collapsed at once. In the past, a house had a price of 200000-300000 US dollars. At that time, you could buy it for less than 100000 US dollars. My old colleague asked me if I wanted to buy one in the local area. I said: crazy. I can only go on business once a year at most. No matter how cheap it is, why do I go here to buy a house. If millions of Chinese holding Chinese Mainland passports and U.S. visas had to leave the United States in an instant, the real estate in the United States would collapse immediately, leading to the collapse of the entire U.S. financial system. Just such a small problem is enough to plunge the entire United States into economic disaster, not to mention many other problems.

No matter how far the cold war between the United States and the Soviet Union went, both sides had an absolute bottom line that they could not break off diplomatic relations. This is the absolute bottom line maintained on the premise that there is little economic connection between the United States and the Soviet Union. You can play the game of expelling diplomats. You can expel 10, 50 or 100 diplomats at a time, but you can never play it to the point of breaking off diplomatic ties. We say that the Taiwan issue is different from the Ukraine issue. The biggest difference is actually here. No matter how other countries support Ukraine and how to condemn and sanction Russia, they will not go to the point of breaking diplomatic relations with Russia. However, the Taiwan issue is totally different. There is no room for manoeuvre. It is the same for all countries. All countries that have established diplomatic relations with China have an absolute prerequisite, that is, they must declare their recognition of one China, and the people’s Republic of China is the only legitimate government of China and cannot have diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

This is a stick to the end, there is no suspense, there is nothing to talk about, and no one will doubt it. Even verbal official support is absolutely forbidden. This is because it is not only a theoretical and legal possibility, but also a fact that many small countries on both sides of the Taiwan Strait have repeatedly and fully proved that 100% of them can not be wrong. Relations with China can be good or bad, but it doesn’t matter if we break off diplomatic ties.

From this, we can see how valuable the iron diplomatic law, which was established by Chairman Mao and Premier Zhou at the very beginning of the founding of the people’s Republic, is today. It is this iron diplomatic law that ensures that there is virtually no room for Taiwan to publicly declare independence today. Therefore, if Taiwan publicly declares its independence, don’t talk about Wutong first. All NATO countries, including the United States, dare not say a word of official support. Except for those small countries that no one cares about and have so-called diplomatic relations with Taiwan, no other country has the courage to publicly recognize Taiwan’s independence, or even any official recognition. Moreover, countries that have established diplomatic relations with the people’s Republic of China in the past just need to say “recognize one China”.

Therefore, if you want to understand this point, you will be clear: the road of Taiwan’s public declaration of independence simply does not exist.

2. how to crack the disgusting war in the Taiwan Strait

In that case, why does the United States continue to instigate Taiwan independence? Obviously, the most valuable thing is to block up China, which is just a disgusting war. Or, to promote a war in the Taiwan Strait, the United States, NATO, Japan and other countries stay out of it, and impose comprehensive sanctions and blockades on China in the same way as in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, so as to break the process of China’s development.

In the past, we had several default ideas on this issue:

First, it believes that if the Taiwan Strait issue is to be resolved peacefully, it needs the joint efforts of the mainland, the local government of Taiwan and the United States. Both in our hearts and in our words, we recognize that the United States has a say in this issue and can make a difference. But now it seems that this is completely fantasy. The United States cannot consider the Taiwan Strait issue from the perspective of peaceful reunification. Therefore, it is impossible to give the United States this qualification and status.

The second is that Wutong is the mainland attacking Taiwan, and it solves the battle before foreign aid arrives on the premise of preventing interference from external forces. The only issue discussed by us think tanks and officials is how to make the Taiwan Army resist for enough time to win over foreign aid. This gives us a very wrong hint. Therefore, in the article “how to use Mao Zedong’s military thought to guide the war of reunification”, I proposed for the first time to adopt the PLA’s traditional “encirclement and support” tactics to shift the main direction of attack to attack and support troops. Instead of attacking Taiwan island before the arrival of reinforcements, the PLA will surround some small islands close to the mainland and try to provide as much time as possible for foreign aid to arrive, so that the PLA will have the opportunity to attack foreign aid. Since then, more and more network big V began to mention that the war object of Wutong was the US Army. However, in such a simple way, it seems reasonable on the surface, but in fact it is very harmful. Because war is not a question of how to fight, the key point is that there must be sufficient reasons for war. If there are no preconditions and reasons, how can you turn the target of war from Taiwan to foreign forces? You can’t casually say that I want to unify Taiwan, so you should go to war with foreign troops? Therefore, the most difficult thing is not how to fight, but what is the reasonable reason, or to put it bluntly, the reasonable “war excuse” to fight against foreign forces supporting Taiwan independence? If this problem is not solved, it can only be talked about on paper and can not be realized.

5? On the Japanese garrison

When we seriously consider the above issues, we will suddenly find that there is a very good legal basis: according to the Cairo Declaration and the Potsdam Proclamation, China, as a victorious country in World War II, has the right to garrison troops in Japan. In addition, the United States did invite the then Kuomintang government to send troops to Japan, and has already begun to have plans and actions. On August 17, 1945, the chief of staff of the Chinese Theater of the Allied forces and US general Weidman reported to the US government that he had discussed the issue of occupying Japan with Chiang Kai Shek, and initially asked Chiang Kai Shek to send 50000 troops to Japan. In march1946, China established the “delegation of the Republic of China to Japan of the Allied Control Committee”. In that year, newspapers had publicly reported that they were going to send 15000 troops from the 67th division to Japan, but the matter was finally shelved for various reasons. The 67th division was sent to the battlefield of the civil war and was severely damaged by the central China Field Army led by Su Yu. This matter has been talked about by many Chinese people as a pity. But why do we only think that this is a pity? From the legal point of view, the legal power of China’s garrison in Japan has not completely disappeared? Why do people no longer take this matter seriously? Because everyone thought that it was obviously impossible for the United States to agree to the PLA garrison in Japan. However, whether the United States agrees or not is one thing. Whether we have this right is another. Don’t you think the United States always disgusts China with the Taiwan Strait issue? Why don’t we get sick of this? Why can’t the PLA garrison in Japan? Whether you agree or not is the attitude of the United States. Whether we can garrison troops in Japan is the skill of our people’s Liberation Army, and it depends on whether we Chinese have this mood and need. We can’t just say that “the Chinese people are not easy to provoke, and it’s difficult to deal with when they are in a hurry.” we have to make it clear to the Americans where it is difficult to deal with, that is, I want to garrison in Japan when I am in a hurry.

We can just talk about it academically or on paper. Making the United States difficult is not only a real “hands-on”, but also the ability of Americans to make each other feel bad just by talking.

We can also formally propose with the United States to garrison in Japan and speak more directly and fiercely.

It can be mentioned that the US Army is stationed in Japan together with the US Army, or that all the US troops leave and return to Europe. This place is only in the charge of our people’s Liberation Army.

We can just raise the issue of the PLA garrison in Japan, or we can join forces with Russia, or even Britain and France to garrison in Japan. People also have the right to garrison in Japan. As for what they think of this problem, it is their business. Please or not is our courtesy, whether to come or not is their freedom.

You and the United States are not qualified to say in front of China that we should proceed from strength and status, but I am qualified to say that whether we proceed from legal principles or strength and status, the settlement of the Taiwan Strait issue has nothing to do with the United States, and the United States has no say in this matter.

We can solve the problem through consultation, but if the United States causes trouble in the Taiwan Strait again, I will mention “changing defense” with the US military in Japan. The Taiwan Strait is not a problem. There is no need to discuss it. We do not need to consult with the United States about what we want to do. What can be negotiated is the PLA garrison in Japan. It is not how the Taiwan Strait will be resolved, but how the PLA garrison in Japan will be achieved. If the Taiwan Strait issue cannot be resolved peacefully, the PLA will enter the Japanese garrison in accordance with the Cairo Declaration and the Potsdam Proclamation, so as to realize China’s sacred and inviolable power as the ultimate victor of World War II. If the PLA is stationed in Okinawa and even the entire Japanese military base, is the Taiwan Strait issue still a problem?

You, the United States, are always fiddling with the Taiwan Strait issue, which makes China upset. I will use the theory of stationing troops in Japan to make you even more upset.

As a last resort, we will not fight a war for the Taiwan Strait. We are all Chinese and it is not worth it. But I personally think it is worthwhile to fight a war for the Japanese garrison, so that all historical problems will be solved. Therefore, on the issue of stationing troops in Japan, we will be more and more proactive. On the issue of the Taiwan Strait, if we want to use force, we frankly say that we have some concerns, but on the issue of garrisoning troops in Japan, it seems that we do not have too many concerns when we use force.

Originally, there was no need to talk with Japan about garrisoning troops in Japan, but we can also talk with Japan: unlike the US military, the PLA has “three major disciplines and eight points of attention”. In addition, if the PLA is stationed in Japan, it can only charge half of the fees paid by Japan to the US military, which is quite favorable. You can go back and think about it.

6? Theory of equivalent sovereign deterrence

It seems that it is not enough to solve historical problems. Another important difference between Taiwan and Ukraine is purely from a geographical perspective: Ukraine borders on many NATO countries, but Taiwan is isolated in the sea near the east of the mainland. In Europe, the United States can unite many powerful countries. But in East Asia, the only countries the United States can count on are Japan and Australia. When Deng Gong visited the United States, some people asked how to solve the Taiwan issue and whether he would attack Taiwan by force? Deng Gong replied at that time: we have no ability to attack Taiwan, but we can have the ability to blockade Taiwan. We were able to blockade Taiwan 40 years ago, and we are certainly more able to do so now. We can acquiesce in the sale of weapons to Taiwan, or we can directly use sovereignty to seize weapons destined for Taiwan. For trade with Taiwan, it can acquiesce in the inspection of Taiwan local customs, or the General Administration of Customs of China can directly intercept and inspect at sea with the support of the armed police and the people’s Liberation Army. We can acquiesce in the landing of politicians’ special planes of some countries in Taiwan, or we can think that such aircraft without China’s permission are illegal intrusions into China’s sovereign territory and directly shoot them down with missiles.

The Japanese problem can be solved through the theory of stationing troops in Japan. How can Australia solve it? Fighting a war for the Japanese garrison is only a solution to historical problems, but Australia has very sufficient resources! The local resources are so abundant that people drool. Even after the great changes in the energy market, iron ore, especially lithium ore, is a long-term and urgent resource for China in the future. Therefore, in addition to the Japanese garrison theory, we also need another way to completely subdue Australia. This requires the establishment of two legal principles: one is the theory of equal sovereign deterrence, and the other is the theory of protecting trade channels and combating piracy.

“Reciprocal sovereign deterrence” means that if other countries deter China’s sovereignty in any way, China has reason to counter deterrence and even occupy the other party’s sovereign territory. NATO’s argument that “human rights are greater than sovereignty” dare to be mentioned. Why can’t we mention “reciprocal sovereign deterrence”? This is not only to solve the problem of Australia’s interference in the Taiwan Strait, but also to solve the turmoil of Lithuania and other countries on the Taiwan Strait issue. We can hold large-scale military exercises along the Lithuanian border with Belarus and Russia, and send 100000 people’s Liberation Army to practice. If Australia dares to get involved in the Taiwan Strait issue again, we can also hold naval military exercises near Australia on the grounds of “reciprocal sovereign deterrence”. It can also establish military bases near Australia in the name of protecting China Australia trade channel.

Recently, China has made significant diplomatic progress in the South Pacific. Foreign Minister Wangyi is visiting eight South Pacific countries. Of course, this is “not aimed at any third party”.

7? Take the initiative to trouble the other party

In the past, because our strength was weak and we just wanted to concentrate on development, we adopted the strategy of doing more than less. But now, why do we always wait for the other side to find trouble for China, while we are just defending? Defense alone is not enough. Attack is the best defense. We must make the other party always think about how to avoid China’s trouble, so as to most effectively avoid his constant trouble in China – I’m worried about how to find some trouble with you, and you even took the initiative to come to the door. The above-mentioned grasp is not only a means of counterattack, but also a means of active attack. We should make it clear to each other that this is the time for China to rush to trouble others, not to avoid others. Therefore, you’d better stay away from China’s sovereignty. I have been looking at so many very high-quality mineral deposits in Australia. It seems a little against humanity to say that I have no idea at all! A little hypocritical and not objective enough! You also offered to hand over the ladder. If we don’t use the ladder to go upstairs, it would be very sorry for some politicians in Australia. Is it more cost-effective to fight a war in the southern Pacific than in the Taiwan Strait? We don’t have to occupy any territory, just “protect the trade channel”.

Originally, China is very talkative. The Chinese Navy and the Australian Navy can jointly protect the Sino Australian trade channel. However, on November 22, 2021, Australian Defense Minister Dayton officially signed the “aukus” cooperation agreement with American and British diplomats (the Chinese translation of the “Australia cries to death” agreement). If Australia always wants to take the initiative to interfere in China’s sovereignty, the Chinese navy will have to annihilate the Australian Navy and tie Britain and the United States together under the “Australia crying to death” agreement, so as to better protect China Australia Trade from threats from Australia, Britain and the United States.

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