Author: Xusheng source: Xusheng (official account id:lxlong20) has been reproduced with authorization
As the Ukrainian war entered the seesaw mode, Putin was also trying to change.
The so-called tug of war is the war of attrition. Russia is not competing with Ukraine, but with the whole NATO.
Although Russia is vast in territory and resources, it does not lack strategic hard currency such as oil, resources and food; However, in the industrial civilization cycle, as a world power, only basic materials such as oil, resources and food are far from enough. It also needs the support of many supporting industries, the international community, and the product sales market.
At present, Russia’s industrial supporting facilities have been sanctioned by the west, international public opinion has been portrayed as a negative role by the west, and product sales have also been affected. In this case, as the helmsman of Russia, Putin is trying to open a new situation.
01 military, extreme pressure
At the military level, we should pay attention to both.
The first step at the military level of Russia is to encroach on more Ukrainian land.
Russia’s banner is to liberate East Ukraine, but anyone with a clear eye can see that Russia’s low-level target is the territory along the Caspian Black Sea coast of Ukraine, and its high-level target is the whole Ukraine.
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said in an interview with the Russian news agency on July 20, “the geographical environment is different now, not only Lugansk and Donetsk, but also the Kherson region, zaporoje region (both located in southern Ukraine) and some other regions. This process is continuing and will continue.”.
Lavrov’s words are equivalent to announcing on behalf of Russia that Russia will occupy more Ukrainian territory.
Another purpose of acquiring more territory is also the intention of military intimidation. After all, the war cost a lot, and Russia is eager for Ukraine to recognize that Crimea belongs to Russia and East Ukraine is independent.
The second step at the military level of Russia is to vigorously pursue and kill the high-level military of Ukraine.
Alexander bastrikin, chairman of the Russian Commission of inquiry, said that Russia was investigating senior Ukrainian officers involved in the shelling of the Donbas region.
“During the preliminary investigation, more than 220 people have been confirmed to have participated in crimes against human peace and security, including representatives of the Ukrainian military supreme command and commanders of military detachments that bombed civilians.”
This investigation is equivalent to putting pressure on the top of the Ukrainian military from a personal level. But how much effect it can play in the end is up to time to verify.
02 politics, disintegration
The political level is extreme pressure. There are three main ways.
The first is to distinguish the Zelensky government from the Ukrainian people.
It was reported on July 24 that Lavrov made such a statement during his visit to Egypt, “We sympathize with the Ukrainian people, who should have lived a better life. We regret that the history of Ukraine is being destroyed before our eyes. In addition, we also regret those who listen to the propaganda of Ukraine and Western countries, because this practice is to make Ukraine Russia’s’ eternal enemy ‘, and this attempt will not succeed. The people of Russia and Ukraine will continue to live together, and we will help Help the Ukrainian people get rid of the current anti people and anti historical regime. “
——It is equivalent to saying that we want to overthrow the Ukrainian regime.
This is a symbolic change. You know, even at the beginning of Russia’s attack on Ukraine, it claimed that it would not seek to overthrow the Zelensky regime. Now Russia says it wants to help Ukrainians get rid of the Zelensky regime, which reflects the purpose of political extreme pressure.
From a political perspective, Russia certainly cannot directly say that it wants Ukrainian land, but to help Ukrainians get rid of the Zelensky regime is equivalent to looking for a political excuse. This is definitely not a political slogan, but a supporting action.
The second is to attract Ukrainians into Russia.
On July 11, Putin signed a presidential decree stipulating that all Ukrainian residents can apply for Russian citizenship through simplified procedures. This act has two functions.
One is to attract Ukrainian Pro Russian factions to Russia.
Due to historical reasons, Ukraine has a considerable number of Pro Russian factions.
Second, provide a way out for Ukrainians who are dissatisfied with the authorities.
Considering that Zelensky is now catching the ghost in Ukraine, some people must be dissatisfied.
The third measure is to de ukrainize the occupied areas.
On July 25, Kherson Oblast, which was occupied by Russia, announced that it would no longer use the Ukrainian currency hryvna and would fully use the Russian ruble.
Earlier, it was also announced that Kherson would join Russia in a referendum. According to the current trend, it will be sooner or later for Kherson to invest in Russia.
Why is Russia eager to annex Kherson state? The reason is very simple. Herzon is next to Crimea. Annexing herzon can give Crimea strategic depth.
03 diplomacy, curve breakthrough
In fact, NATO’s public opinion attack and political blockade also have a great impact on Russia. So Putin needs to lead Russia to break through from the diplomatic level.
At this stage, it is obvious that Putin focuses on the Middle East and Africa.
Not long ago, Putin went to Tehran to get together with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Iranian President Lech and supreme leader Ali Khamenei. Its goal is to strengthen Russia’s strategic interests in Syria through Iran and Turkey.
On July 24, Lavrov officially launched his “trip to Africa” and will visit Egypt, Ethiopia, Uganda and Congo (Brazzaville) within five days.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson zaharova released a video shot by Lavrov at the Arab League Headquarters (Cairo), saying: “this is the response of most countries in the world to Western villains.”
In the video, Lavrov joked when shaking hands with the foreign ministers of the member states of the Arab League, “guys, I heard that Western diplomats asked you not to take photos of me, take photos with me, shake hands with me, and sign any documents with Russia”. As a result, the whole audience laughed wildly.
It can be seen from this that Russia is popular in the Arab League. This is mainly due to the dividends left by the former Soviet Union.
Back to the reality, since the Middle East and Africa need Russian food, Russia still has a certain detour space in Africa.
The other direction of Russia’s diplomatic breakthrough is the European Union.
As we all know, Ukraine does not say anything about Ukraine today, but involves the whole west.
The West supports Ukraine, but it is not monolithic. Germany and France have completely different interests from Britain and the United States.
The United States and Britain want Europe and Russia to continue to consume, so that European wealth and elites will continue to flow to the United States and Britain. After the war broke out, the devaluation of the euro was an example.
Germany and France still want Russia Ukraine peace talks from the perspective of Greater Europe.
Putin is also trying to force pressure to test the bottom line of Germany and France. As summer approaches, Europe’s demand for natural gas has soared. The European Union, with France and Germany at the helm, will bear greater energy pressure.
In Putin’s expectation, it is best for Germany and France to turn against the United States and Britain on the Ukraine issue. This idea seems very difficult at present. After all, France and Germany have not the courage to turn against the United States and Britain.
In short, the Ukrainian war was an all-round war of strangulation. Russia, Ukraine and the West are all trying to kill and maim each other. But none of this can change the long-term nature of the war.
