Author: Xusheng source: Xusheng (official account id:lxlong20) has been reproduced with authorization
Biden went to Saudi Arabia on the south coast of the Persian Gulf and Putin went to Iran on the north coast of the Persian Gulf. The global village game is heating up. Here is a brief introduction to the relationship between the parties:
The United States and Russia are fighting over Ukraine.
Biden and Putin are eternal rivals.
Saudi Arabia and Iran have been enemies for thousands of years.
Sunni and Shia hatred is an eternal knot.
Sunni Saudi Arabia is a traditional ally of the United States.
Shia Iran and Russia have both enemies and friends in history, and now have a common enemy, the United States. After the new Iranian President Lech took office, his first diplomatic visit was to Russia, which shows how much Iran attaches importance to its relations with Russia.
01 strategic appeal
On July 19, Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Tehran, Iran, and joined Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who had already arrived, to hold the trilateral summit of the “Astana process” between Russia, Turkey and Iran.
The so-called “Astana process” is a peace negotiation mechanism seeking to solve the Syrian crisis. It was launched by Russia, Turkey and Iran in January 2017, with the purpose of promoting peace in Syria and combating terrorist organizations in Syria. In essence, it is also an organization of Russia, Turkey and Iran to compete for the dominance of Syria with the West.
Therefore, the Syrian issue is the focus of Putin’s visit to Iran this time.
Before Putin arrived in Tehran, Erdogan had held a meeting with Iran’s two most important leaders (President Lech and Iran’s supreme leader Khamenei).
Nominally, it was a three person meeting. In fact, it was a meeting between Erdogan and Khamenei, accompanied by Lech. After all, in Iran, the supreme leader of iron, the president of flowing water. Where there is Khamenei, the Iranian president is just a supporting role.
The two sides said that the Syrian issue should be resolved through continued dialogue between Iran, Turkey, Syria and Russia.
The content of this talk is equivalent to excluding the West and making decisions instead of Syria. In fact, the western power in Syria and its surrounding areas is still very strong. Iran, Turkey and Russia alone cannot solve this problem, but it does not prevent them from opposing Western hegemonism with hegemonic thinking.
Erdogan proposed cooperation in combating terrorism.
Khamenei said that Iran is willing to cooperate with Turkey on combating terrorism.
Erdogan said that terrorist organizations in Syria have received support from some western countries, including heavy weapons support from Germany, Britain, France and the United States.
The two sides also expressed a series of condemnations to the west, which is a warm-up for Putin’s arrival, indicating that this is a trilateral talks against the West.
This is Putin’s second overseas visit since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. The last overseas visit was to Tajikistan and Turkmenistan in Central Asia to attend the Caspian Sea coastal countries summit. However, both Tajik and kutuman belong to the former Soviet Union and are regarded by Russia as the backyard of Central Asia.
This visit to Iran should be the first time that Putin walked out of the territory of the former Soviet Union after the Ukrainian war.
According to the Kremlin, the main tasks of Putin’s visit include:
1. Seeking a solution to the Syrian crisis;
2. Seeking a solution to the Iranian nuclear issue;
3. Deepen trade and economic relations between Russia, Iran and Turkey. Among them, energy cooperation, de dollarization and joint response to Western sanctions have become the “highlights” of Putin’s visit.
These problems seem extremely complicated.
First, look at the so-called Syrian crisis. Russia supports government forces, while Turkey supports rebels but opposes Kurds.
Without Russian support, the Assad government in Syria would have been overthrown by the West.
Turkey has a great dream of the Ottoman Empire. Syria was originally a part of the Ottoman Empire (in addition, Turkey has a pan Turkic dream, and Iran is also a part of it), so Turkey has always supported the rebels. In a sense, the headquarters of Syrian rebels is in Turkey.
But Turkey does not support the Kurds in the rebels. Because Kurds and Turks have deep blood feuds, Turkey is also worried that Kurds will mess up their country. However, the western countries led by the United States supported the Kurds in order to contain Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria.
On the Syrian issue, Russia and Turkey have had many rounds of talks in the past few years, with no results. There is no reason for this probability. But the two sides can reach an agreement on dealing with the Kurds. After all, Kurds are neither popular with Russia nor Turkey, but they also have western support.
But the Kurdish point is not enough to make up for the strategic conflict between Turkey and Russia on the Syrian issue. So Putin and Erdogan are doomed to have no reason to talk about Syria.
However, the two must continue to negotiate on the Syrian issue. Why do you say so? You can see that Putin and Erdogan are obviously in good spirits this time, which is much better than their previous meeting.
The previous two negotiations on the Syrian issue were either frowned or tense. Why are you laughing this time? The reason is very simple. In the old Chinese saying, XiangZhuang dances his sword with the intention of Peigong. They are borrowing the Syrian issue to talk about something else.
I’ll talk about this later.
03 Iran nuclear issue
Like the Syrian issue, the so-called Iranian nuclear issue is also a dead end.
Iran’s strategic goal is obvious, which is to gradually embrace nuclear weapons.
Russia has always been a responsible big country in the international arena and does not allow nuclear proliferation. In this case, Putin went to Iran to talk about the nuclear issue, and there could be no substantive results.
But this does not mean that Russia and Iran cannot talk about the nuclear issue.
Russia and Iran have two main goals in talking about the nuclear issue.
First, continue to assume the posture of a responsible big country.
After all, after the Ukrainian war, Russia was collectively sanctioned by the west, and its international image was lost.
At the same time, the west is uncertain about the Iranian nuclear issue. At this time, Russia can just prove its influence to the world, saying that it is running around for the Iranian nuclear issue, which is profound and righteous, and it does not only know to seize the territory of Ukraine as advertised by the western media.
Second, coordinate positions with Iran.
The Iranian nuclear issue is a world problem, of which the west is the most concerned. Because the west is very worried about nuclear weapons in the Middle East. However, the nuclear negotiations between the West and Iran have not been smooth. The West believes that Iran’s asking price is too high, and Iran believes that the West’s offer is too low.
If it is only Iran that faces the west, it will appear to be a little helpless. If Russia and Iran unify their positions, Iran will have more confidence in facing the West. If the West wants to solve the Iranian nuclear issue, it must take into account Russia’s strategic demands and compromise with Russia.
So Putin’s trip to Iran, the Iranian nuclear issue is just a passing talk.
The main topic of the trilateral talks is Syria.
After the talks, Putin, Erdogan and Lech issued a joint statement opposing the continued illegal plundering of Syrian oil and other resources by the United States. The three sides will strengthen cooperation to jointly combat terrorism and maintain regional stability.
Leahy condemned the illegal stationing of U.S. troops in Syria and stressed that U.S. troops should withdraw from Syria as soon as possible.
Putin said that western countries are trying to split Syria, so Russia, Turkey and Iran should continue to promote the Astana process to maintain regional stability.
Erdogan said that Turkey would continue to fight against terrorist organizations and looked forward to the support of Russia and Iran.
Anyway, the three parties jointly scolded the United States and the West.
Even if Iran and Russia scold the west, Turkey is at least a member of NATO. Theoretically, it is an ally of the United States and even the West. It seems a little unreasonable to go to Tehran and scold the West with Russia and Iran.
In fact, the reason is very simple. Turkey is possessed by drama.
04 essence of drama
When Putin and Erdogan met this time, Erdogan made Putin wait an extra minute.
According to the past practice, it is Putin who makes others wait for him, and rarely waits for others. Erdogan dares to let Putin wait because Russia needs Turkey at this stage.
Now Russia is sanctioned by the west, and Russia needs to expand its foreign exchange scale. At the same time, Russia’s resources and energy are hard currency in the international market. Then Russia can use Turkey as an intermediary to transit resources and energy through Turkey to the West.
When Russia works, Iran’s energy can also be transferred from Turkey or earn foreign exchange privately.
In this way, Turkey can sit and earn money while winning the favor of the East. So I have to admire Turkey. The name of Western poison is really not in vain.
Why must Turkey win the favor of Eastern countries? Because it can sell chips in the West. For example, not long ago, Sweden and Finland asked to join NATO, and Turkey took the opportunity to take advantage of it.
So for Turkey, just like India, acting is endless. To put it another way, Russia’s interests in the Middle East can be guaranteed as long as it can win over Turkey and Iran, plus its foundation in Syria.
Putin’s visit to Iran this time, although there are many voices of disapproval or praise in the media, but on the whole, it is similar to Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia. At best, it is a flat trip.
Looking at the world today, from Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia and Putin’s visit to Iran, the influence of the United States and Russia is declining, and playful politicians like Erdogan are increasing, sometimes like fish in water.