Author: Xusheng source: Xusheng (official account id:lxlong20) has been reproduced with authorization
The war between Russia and Ukraine is a super Internet hit.
The No. 1 protagonist is Putin, who led the progress of the play.
On the surface, the No. 2 protagonist is Zelensky. Although he can be compared with Putin in terms of traffic, in fact, Zelensky cannot completely determine the fate of Ukraine. Because behind Ukraine is NATO, and the chess player of NATO is Biden. So in essence, the Russo Ukrainian war was a struggle between Putin and Biden.
Of course, when it comes to traffic, Kadyrov must be mentioned. The young Chechen leader has always been a unique presence in Russia. He looks fierce, but he is extraordinarily docile in the face of Putin.
On June 3, Kadyrov went to Moscow for a meeting and held a meeting with Putin’s right-hand man sauigu (grasimov) to announce the objectives of the third phase of the Russian Army:
It will control Kharkov, Nikolayev and Odessa.
In my previous article, I described the three major objectives of the Russian Army:
1. The low-level goal is to win Dongwu and Nanwu, and finally Odessa.
——The aim was to recapture the core assets of the Soviet Union at the time of its disintegration.
Two core areas lost in the disintegration of the Soviet Union:
One is the Black Sea Azov Sea resource belt, mainly in Dongwu and Nanwu.
The other is the Caspian Sea energy belt, mainly in Kazakhstan and kutumenstan.
If these two places are not lost, Russia will occupy a more important position in the international oil, natural gas, coal and even steel markets.
The focus of this phase is Odessa.
2. The middle-level goal is to bring Ukraine back into its sphere of influence.
Russia is big, but for Russians, there are two big regrets.
First, Kiev, the prosperous place of the East Slavic lady, is the place where the Russian spirit rests.
Second, Istanbul, the home of the orthodox ancestral court, is the root of the Orthodox Church.
So now that it has torn its face, Russia will have no choice but to push forward.
3. A high-level goal to win the voice of the rules of the global village game.
Bring down NATO and the US dollar and regain the right to speak in the world.
If the low-level objectives of the Russian army are successfully advanced, that is, Kharkov and Odessa are won as planned, Russia will implement the medium-level objectives and bring Ukraine back into the Empire. If the Russian army successfully takes Odessa, it will continue to plot the whole Ukraine.
The actions of the Russian army are all in accordance with Putin’s will.
01 youth
Putin was also a young man of literature and art when he was young. He was born in St. Petersburg on October 7, 1952 (Putin was born Leningrad, who once blocked Hitler’s steel flood).
At that time, the Soviet Union was in a relatively good period of history.
Putin’s biography emphasizes that he was born in an ordinary family. His father is a soldier and his mother is a female worker. In fact, his family is not ordinary. Putin’s grandfather, Spiridon &# 8226; Putin has a special skill – the rice is cooked so well that Lenin and Stalin let him be a cook.
So Putin’s family can be said to have no worries about food and clothing.
Putin was very naughty when he was a child, but he studied very well. He graduated from the law department of Leningrad University in 1975. He also has a doctor’s degree in economics. He is a comprehensive talent.
In the era when Putin was growing up, the Soviet Union was at its peak. So he recognized the Soviet Union very much.
In his youth, Putin had a melancholy time. In fact, the so-called melancholy, another level is carefree. Putin in his youth really had no worries.
He joined the Communist Party of the Soviet Union in college, and has not officially announced his withdrawal.
After graduation, the melancholy Putin joined the KGB (one of the world’s most powerful intelligence agencies), a place where only tough guys can survive and face the test of life and death.
It was in the KGB that Putin started the road of a tough guy and became a tough guy. In other words, it was the powerful intelligence agencies of the Soviet empire that turned the gloomy Putin into a tough man in the political sense.
It can be said that the first half of Putin’s life witnessed the glory of the Soviet Union. Or it was the glory of the Soviet Union that created Putin.
On August 20, 1991, just before the collapse of the Soviet Union, Putin left the intelligence agency and became the chairman of the St. Petersburg International Liaison Committee, in charge of the municipal government’s foreign economic relations.
So what did the disintegration of the Soviet empire lead to Mrs. dongslar? Take Putin for example. In the most difficult times, he even had to drive a taxi to maintain his family. To know that Putin was born in a wealthy family and was in the elite class, it is so difficult for ordinary Russians to imagine.
So in the second half of Putin’s life, he witnessed the hardships of Russia. What made him even more indignant was that the Soviet Union had chosen to disintegrate and NATO was still pressing forward step by step.
02 NATO and Russia
I have previously described the process of NATO’s eastward expansion: four times during the cold war and five times after the cold war, a total of nine times.
(Soviet Union) Russia has applied to join NATO five times: once during the Cold War (Khrushchev era), and four times after the Cold War (Yeltsin once, Putin three times).
NATO was born in 1949 and expanded four times in the Cold War Era:
In 1952, Turkey and Greece were absorbed.
In 1955, the Federal Republic of Germany was absorbed.
In 1982, Spain was absorbed.
In 1990, East Germany joined NATO in the process of German unification and merger.
After Khrushchev came to power, he denied Stalin internally and tried to reconcile with NATO externally. In 1954, Khrushchev formally submitted a letter to NATO to apply for membership.
Khrushchev’s reason: the existence of NATO is a provocation to Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union, but if the Soviet Union becomes a member of NATO, this nature will change immediately.
Every time I read that period of history, I would be moved to laugh by Khrushchev’s wonderful logic.
After seeing the application, the United States was also fuming with anger. Not long ago, China and the Soviet Union made the United States and its allies very embarrassed on the Korean battlefield. By absorbing the Soviet Union, NATO would exist in name only.
The Soviet Union turned around and established the Warsaw Pact (1955), which was in opposition to NATO.
Decades later, the cold war came to an end.
Gorbachev’s reform is essentially reconciliation with the West.
Therefore, Gorbachev did not intervene in the process of reunification of Germany and Germany, and personally led the disintegration of the Soviet Union.
Although Yeltsin was Gorbachev’s sworn enemy, he had illusions about NATO. There are two main performances:
First, in 1991, Russia applied to join NATO. At that time, after shock therapy, Russia’s economic and military strength were greatly reduced, but its deterrent power was still very strong. Of course, the United States cannot let Russia in.
Performance 2: indifferent to NATO’s first eastward expansion.
In the Yeltsin Era, Russia thought that as long as it put itself more humble, it could be understood by the West. But Russia was wrong.
When NATO completed its first eastward expansion in 1999, it admitted Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary as members, with 19 member states.
NATO’s eastward expansion is equivalent to pushing its sphere of influence from Germany in the central part to Eastern Europe, greatly compressing Russia’s strategic space. Russia hurts.
Also in 1999, NATO brazenly bombed the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and planned Kosovo’s independence.
The Chinese Embassy in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia was also bombed in the shameless NATO air strike, killing 3 Chinese journalists and injuring more than 20 embassy staff! That is a disgrace that the entire Chinese people should not forget.
At that time, only Russia was most likely to help the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. However, due to the illusion of the west, Russia did not provide strong support in the real sense.
Also in 1999, after NATO’s eastward expansion, Yeltsin chose to hand over the supreme power of Russia to Putin.
In 2014, Russia took Crimea for the reason of following the Kosovo model. NATO became a rogue on the first day of the first year of NATO and Russia became a rogue on the tenth five year plan. In fact, we are all hooligans. Our thinking and behavior are consistent.
Although the process is similar, the results are different. NATO planned Kosovo’s independence, while Russia swallowed Crimea.
Now there is a voice on the Internet saying that NATO can be blamed for being a rogue in Kosovo, but not a rogue in Russia’s annexation of Crimea.
03 Putin’s mind
During the Putin Era, Russia also had illusions about the West. It applied to join NATO three times in 2001, 2003 and 2008, but all ended in failure.
In this process, NATO carried out the most ferocious expansion.
The second eastward expansion of NATO took place in the Putin Era:
In november2002, the NATO Prague Summit reached a decision on the second wave of eastward expansion, which decided to accept the applications of seven countries, namely Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania and Bulgaria, to join NATO.
In March2004, the above-mentioned seven countries officially became new members of NATO, thus expanding the membership of NATO to 26. This is the largest expansion in NATO history.
If the first eastward expansion of NATO is only to compress Russia’s strategic space, then the second eastward expansion is equivalent to putting a knife on Russia’s neck. In particular, the three Baltic countries were recruited to directly attack Petersburg with unprecedented provocations.
In fact, when NATO expanded eastward for the second time, it did more harm to Russia than to Ukraine.
At that time, Putin had established himself in Russia, and his heart must be dripping blood. But he chose to endure, because Russia had great illusions about the west at that time.
Melon eaters compare the time when they applied to join NATO in the Putin Era: the first time was in 2001, just before the second eastward expansion of NATO. Putin, who is an intelligence expert, should have learned in advance of NATO’s plan to expand eastward again and wanted to join NATO in advance to complete reconciliation.
Especially after the “September 11 terrorist attack” on the United States, Putin provided the United States with many conveniences. When the United States attacked Afghanistan, Putin also did not set up resistance (of course, the relationship between Russia and the Taliban was also very stiff because of the Chechnya issue).
The second time was in 2003. After Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania and Bulgaria applied to NATO (2002), they were accepted by NATO (2004).
At this time, Russia applied again, in fact, to express its sincerity for reconciliation with NATO again.
In 2003, the United States launched the Iraq war. The Russian Blitzkrieg against Ukraine is known as the “Iraq model”. But in 2003, Russia neither stopped the United States nor helped Iraq. Because Russia’s fantasy of the West has not been disillusioned.
NATO’s second eastward expansion actually indirectly shows that it is impossible to reconcile with Russia.
The difference between Putin and Gorbachev and Yeltsin is that he has a bold personality and a pragmatic style.
Putin applied to join NATO one after another with another obvious intention: to test.
Time came in 2008: Putin ruled Russia applied for NATO membership for the third time, which was actually the last test.
However, NATO did not care about Russia’s feelings at all. It also launched its third eastward expansion in 2008, including Croatia and Albania (who cheated numerous Chinese and Soviet aid) as member states.
Also in 2008, NATO made a commitment to sell Ukraine and Georgia at the Bucharest summit. Putin and the Russian elite group finally understand that NATO will not reconcile with Russia, but also wants to force Russia to a dead end.
Putin was angry and decided to get tough.
If Putin’s mind is straightened out, it will take almost 10 years from his illusion of the west when he came to power to his disillusionment.
The hardline Putin decided to retaliate, opening a hard model.
04 tough retaliation
Putin’s first tough action took place in the summer of 2008, ordering Russian troops to attack South Ossetia and repair Georgia.
As we all know, Georgia believes that the Ossetian region belongs to its own territory, but the Ossetians do not think so. Georgia wants to take the Ossetians by force.
Russia helped the Ossetians drive out the Georgian soldiers, and Georgia’s wishes were dashed.
In this way, Ossetia became a disputed territory, and Georgia could not join NATO. NATO did not send troops to help Russia repair Georgia. The reason is very simple. NATO doesn’t want to fight for Georgia and Russia.
Putin’s second tough move was in Syria.
At that time, the West wanted to bring down the Assad regime in Syria in accordance with the Libyan model (2011). As the relationship between the Assad government and Russia is not bad, it is the pillar of Russia in the Middle East. So Russia took a hard line and saved Assad.
Putin’s third tough move was to take away Crimea.
Putin’s behavior in Syria angered Obama and Biden, who jointly launched a color revolution in Ukraine and brought down the pro Russian Yanukovych government.
The pro Russian Ukraine is about to become anti Russian. Putin simply did nothing and did nothing. He directly swallowed Crimea under the pretext of imitating the Kosovo model.
Putin’s fourth tough action was to forcefully calm the unrest in Kazakhstan in January.
Putin’s fifth hard line action was to cut Ukraine.
To tell the truth, the actions of the Russian army are very cruel to Ukraine. This action is equivalent to tearing Ukraine in two. Of course, this time it is still the “Kosovo model”. Before swallowing two places, it is really very similar to Kosovo.
But if the Russian army does not act, the West will be cruel to Russia.
Ukraine and Russia were originally fraternal states. It is definitely the sadness of Mrs. dongslar that they are now fratricidal.
05 logic
Why did Putin choose this war?
There are many answers. The simplest one is that there is no time.
There are two levels of no time here.
The first level is for Putin himself.
Putin has ruled Russia for more than 20 years, and he is in his old age.
Looking back over the past 20 years, he has not brought substantial changes to Russia. It has neither reconciled with the West nor helped Russia improve its economic environment. Even Russia’s low fertility rate has not changed.
At the end of his life, he chose the best tradition of Russians, war; To engage in the core assets in the eyes of Russians, including but not limited to——
1. Territory, the black land of eastern and southern Ukraine.
2. Resources, Donbas coal belt.
3. Energy, black sea energy.
Taking these things means having a greater say in the global village. The old railroads can observe the impact of the Russian Ukrainian war on the oil, natural gas, steel, wheat and fertilizer markets.
The second level is for Russia.
Today, Putin has more power in Russia than most czars. It is equivalent to the whole Russia giving power resources to Putin. If Putin can not do something tough, then it will be difficult for others to lead Russia to do something tough.
So not only does Putin personally feel that time waits for no man, but also for the whole of Russia. In the eyes of many Russians, many tough things must be completed in the Putin Era.
In a sense, Putin’s heart is also the heart of Russia. This way will make many people unhappy, but it is a Russian heirloom.
The great emperor’s heart is burning!
Russian desire is burning!
The land of Ukraine is burning!
