Original: guziming authorized to reprint this article to wechat official account: zhengshitang plus2019
On the 16th, air defense sirens sounded almost all over Ukraine, entering a state of emergency for air defense.
Such a big battle was fought by French President macron, German Chancellor Scholz and Italian Prime Minister Draghi. The three European giants entered Kiev by train from the Polish border.
The three leaders who have entered the country for the first time since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will hold a press conference with Zelensky.
The domestic media generally expected that the three countries would unite to pressure Ukraine and seek peace with Russia. However, I believe that the news should not be patted on the head, but should be watched in conjunction with the itinerary and.
The leaders of France, Germany and Italy will attend the G7 leaders’ summit in Elmo castle, Bavaria, Germany from June 26 to 28, and then go to Madrid International Convention and Exhibition Center, Spain, to attend the NATO summit from June 29 to 30.
These two rounds of summits, led by the United States, will unite western countries to reach an agreement on Russia’s policies in terms of economy and military respectively. The difference lies in whether the European scheme of France, Germany and Italy or the five eye scheme led by the United States, Britain and Canada is adopted.
From Biden’s invitation not only to Australia and New Zealand, but also to the Prime Minister of Japan and the Prime Minister of the Republic of Korea to attend the NATO summit for the first time, the United States is determined to promote the reform of the G7 and NATO in its own direction this time.
Under the background of global inflation exploding and the United States vigorously raising interest rates, the choice of scheme, the trend of the war in Ukraine and how Russia ends the war will determine the future destiny of the three European powers.
Therefore, France, Germany and Italy must reach an agreement internally before attending the meeting to form a united “EU” small group, so as to break the wrist with the United States in the G7 and NATO arenas, indicating that the three big men who really pay in Europe advance and retreat together, and jointly strive for the dominant power of “mediating” the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
In my opinion, the big three will focus on long-term carrot seduction this time, such as promising to provide military materials and assistance to Ukraine in the future, allowing Ukrainian grain to be exported to the EU “without inspection” in the future, and enjoying the beautiful picture of Ukraine’s future accession to the EU.
In short, three old actors draw big cakes for a new actor.
And “reading the script and the lines overnight” is not only to make Zelensky inclined to the European plan, but also to make zelensquito speak well to them.
The new actor will also attend the NATO summit this month for the first time as a special observer, because his speech will also affect the domestic politics of France, Germany and Italy.
The seemingly comical situation is related to the political structure of European votes.
Scholz and macron, two centrist leaders, were able to defeat their “right-wing” opponents to take power successively, thanks to the full support of the domestic left-wing alliance political parties. However, the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine has rapidly divided the votes of the centrists to the left and right wings, especially a large number of centrists to the left.
Last month, in the local elections in Norwich, Germany’s largest state, Scholz’s social democratic party suffered its worst defeat since its founding, and a large number of votes were snatched away by its ally, the green party. In next week’s French parliamentary elections, the support rate of the left-wing League has soared all the way, which also makes it possible that makron may not win half of the seats and become a slope duck.
The two centrist leaders of Germany and France are now in trouble. They should force Ukraine to surrender as soon as possible based on interests, but they must try their best to please Zelensky based on ballot politics in the near future.
Therefore, the script that many people hope the three countries oppress Ukraine to cede land to Russia will not appear in the process of this visit. It is impossible to get it on the battlefield or at the negotiation table.
The G7 summit and NATO summit at the end of this month, as well as Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia early next month, will be a key window for Russia and Ukraine to win bargaining chips.