Author: Kafka is busy source: outsider’s horizon (id:hooyar_380097485)
Many people blame me for not talking about real estate and uncompleted residential flats. Hehe, I began to remind private real estate companies of the danger of thunderstorms in 2019. In 2020, I tried to persuade everyone to throw away the surplus houses if there were any. In 2021, Evergrande thunderstorm also kindly advised them not to wade in muddy waters and hoped that throwing knives could make a fortune.
I said again and again, persuaded again and again, but some people always feel that they are bullies and can avoid the so-called law of cause and effect. Who is to blame?
At the beginning of this year, many places rescued the market one after another, issued many policies, and many people had illusions, persuaded and persuaded, and wrote an article “real estate 2022”. However, many people came to today’s new problems with the old calendar of 2008 and 2015.
Those who blame me for not speaking actually don’t want to listen to what I say, and they don’t care what I say, but they think too high of themselves and think that the government has to help him in case of an accident. All media people have to swear or threaten according to his mind, otherwise it’s garbage.
I’ve been in real estate for so many years, and I’ve seen a lot of uncompleted residential flats, and I’ve also disposed of uncompleted residential flats, you know? The favorite of all those engaged in the disposal of non-performing assets is that the original owners automatically default, and the default is neat. It is best that the project under construction is capped, and the small owners have run out. This is bound to be able to get it back cheaply. How can it be packaged, and when the market recovers, it can be sold on the market.
You might as well take a look at some large creditor’s financial institutions of the king of thunder, but the four accounts for the least. What do you think is the mystery?
Small funds and institutions are interested in return, so they dare to take risks. Large institutions have long seen the danger and quit early. Then those who found it thought they had got the treasure.
So don’t be too naive. Why can everyone breach the contract together and make things bigger and create a Chinese version of the subprime mortgage crisis? In the end, it’s natural for the government to save you.
The larger the banks are, the less they are involved in such uncompleted residential buildings. Because people usually talk about rules, your real estate enterprises can’t misappropriate the funds in the regulatory account on a large scale. Big banks are not afraid that your enterprises won’t lend. Only small and medium-sized banks, what rural banks, do everything to get business. Developers dare to cooperate, and they often end up with problems.
A large bank can buy the equity of small and medium-sized banks crazily to achieve the purpose of financing. Does he have the ability to buy the equity of the four major banks, become the controlling shareholder, and dig holes crazily?
In 2018, when deleveraging and going to shadow banking, many people jumped up and cursed.
I’ve been dealing with these money players for so long, who doesn’t know where the shadow bank’s money finally went? Most of them went to real estate.
If China deleverages, people will go to HK to borrow dollar debt.
Now neifang owes a total of $190billion in foreign debt. What kind of overseas capital do you think it is?
It’s like your parents see that you are a dissolute, limit your credit card, and then increase many pre-approval requirements for you. Then the loan shark next door suddenly finds you, ha Cong, and stretches out his hand to lend you a lot of money, not even mortgages. Please ask this loan shark is really kind?
It’s clear that people just want to come over and kill you.
Where on earth did the overseas funds that the Japanese foam economy caused the real estate foam to burst? How did property speculators borrow money in the 1997 Asian financial crisis?
If you want to understand, the reason here is the same. Overseas funds want to cause trouble in your country’s real estate. People can’t go to the market to rob you of a house in person. This is too inefficient. People just want to make a big lever for you. The lever tightens the capital and drives the price of real estate up crazily. Those who really want to short for the purpose can’t invest much capital, It can also dig a big hole for you.
Think about it, why was a shell once valued so high? Why can an intermediary get such a high price? Because its platform can falsely raise your house price and rent price under the guise of reality.
As long as the house in our community is put into a shell platform, it will give you a price increase of at least 1000 yuan / set. After it is put on, the owner will have more illusions. The rent will rise slightly, and the information source will be controlled. Either the market can only pay more money in tears, or the owner can’t deal for a long time, and can’t endure it. The intermediary will give you a low and unreasonable price, monopolize the information, and people can manipulate the price at will, Of course, house prices can also be constantly hyped up.
In fact, I believe what Mr. Ren Zeping said. A big boss can’t listen to the advice at all, because he sees the world he wants to see. He can only see that real estate prices are rising, and there are articles spreading anxiety and persuading people to get on the bus quickly, so why doesn’t he dare to enlarge the leverage? When house prices rise, don’t you have everything?
You may wish to see again, where did the real estate enterprise thunderstorm begin in 2021?
What DUT did started with the explosion of overseas dollar debt.
In 2021, the regulation was tightened a little, and immediately the overseas dollar debt exploded. A big storm, then the sales and construction were basically completed together. The debt was served by the serial bomb of the intentional person, which was the serial explosion.
The terrifying thing about the debt crisis is to let all kinds of creditors in the market run together through panic. Even if a big hole is not so big, as long as a run effect is formed, it will still have to be completed.
Then a series of killings came, and all the dollar debts of domestic real estate enterprises were forced by creditors together. The result was a series of thunderstorms and explosions, and then the original domestic real estate ecological chain was completely destroyed.
So how do you think a financial crisis came about? Without laying mines for a long time and finding the right nodes to ignite accurately, in fact, the debt chain is not so fragile.
Think about it, why is there a supervision system for pre-sale funds of commercial housing?
Every time the pre-sale money is strictly checked, the real estate developers buy countless writers, spray everywhere, which hinders the free economy and the development of real estate. The memory of leeks is not even seven seconds. Many people forget that crop, turn around and find that it affects their own interests, and immediately scold.
Indeed, everyone who buys a house hopes that their house will soar as soon as they buy it. Of course, many people understand what the misappropriation of regulatory funds is for, but people think that the money is used to raise the house price, so they must acquiesce. If they succeed in doing it for real estate developers, then thank the boss for playing. Only in this situation now, it is necessary to jump out and make trouble.
When the house rises, everyone says they have rigid demand. When the House fails to rise, there will be no demand immediately. Thousands of luxury houses here in Shenzhen all say they are rigid demand, do you believe it?
When making money, ask the owners if they care about the misappropriation of construction funds by real estate companies?
To be honest, it doesn’t cost so much to guarantee the delivery of the building. How high do you think the construction cost of the capped house can be?
One square 1W? Hehe, I’m afraid you don’t have any basic construction knowledge. For a house within 100 meters, the construction cost of 3000 yuan per square meter can do a good job in quality. No matter how unreliable the uncompleted residential flats are, they have invested some construction costs. How much money can they invest to meet the delivery standard? Don’t you have any points in your heart?
Do you think that the collective supply interruption of real estate can really put the financial institutions at a loss? Collective supply interruption means that the buyers collectively terminate the sales contract with the development enterprise. Later, you will be a creditor, and the building has become a clean asset. These projects under construction are mortgaged to the bank. At that time, you will be directly given a discount to dispose of non-performing assets. Then you buyers can only wait with other creditors to take the assets after the bankruptcy liquidation of the real estate developer, which is sure, Your down payment and all previous monthly payments will be gone, and everything will return to zero.
Do you think it’s really cost-effective? Unless the local house price has fallen below your down payment.
In my opinion, from a long-term perspective, asset prices are bound to rise after sideways trading.
The reason is very simple. The United States owes 30 trillion national debt, and people can’t afford to pay it back at all, but as long as inflation rises, it’s not so worried. In the 1970s, hundreds of billions of dollars of U.S. national debt broke the gold standard. Now hundreds of billions are nothing, and the market value of any large enterprise on NASDAQ exceeds this figure.
Under the credit monetary system, credit is bound to continue to expand. As long as we survive the debt cycle, everything is not a problem.
The problem is to force everyone to solve cyclical problems in the short term, and pressing for debt will inevitably lead to problems.
I don’t know which genius came up with such a bad idea. Even mentioning negotiation is better than directly putting it off.
Of course, you have to be glad that you live in China. We are a big government. The government will not ignore major events and will still solve problems.
Recently, I saw someone publicly boasting that the U.S. housing loan policy is good. If you don’t pay the loan, you need personal credit bankruptcy. You can’t reply to the credit policy until seven years later. The house built by Americans with wooden boards has no possibility of unfinished business. A gust of wind can blow it away for you.
Many people can’t figure out anything, so they just follow the rhythmic people there.
Interestingly, recently, the British Prime Minister was forced to resign, the European Union collective rotted, and the Secretary General of OPEC and the former Prime Minister of Japan were both killed.
The dollar index rose to an unprecedented high of 108, which means that wealth is frantically chasing the dollar. Everyone runs to change dollars, and the dollar will rise, right.
One thing, the more it rises, the more it is sought after, the more it falls, the more it is abandoned. The dollar may not be all in the United States, but if the dollar rises in price and is frantically chased, can we print more dollars?
It’s a ghost to believe the American data. If people can instigate another real estate crisis in China, will there be more demand for dollars? Then the so-called strong recovery in the United States may come true. Are prices rising unhappily? Just raise your salary. Anyway, there is enough money printing machine.
On the contrary, the world is more short of dollars because of this, so it’s not necessary to sell good things to the United States for dollars? Slowly, the CPI of the United States will stabilize?
Yesterday is said to be the biggest day of the moon.
The moon always makes people sentimental, and the night reminds people of home.
A wave of real estate developers’ agitation, real estate financialization crazy fight, lucky, there are always some eat meat, but in this world, out of the mix, sooner or later have to pay, unfortunately, often the debt is paid by the group who later took the offer.
After all, the economy needs to be transformed. Every transition period, old problems from the past always erupt with new problems, and someone will always be injured by mistake.