The most dispassionate analysis of China US relations: we must keep our strategy sober. The most critical moment is far from coming!

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Author: Li Guangman Source: Li Guangman Ice Point Review WeChat official account ID: ligm-479210127 has been authorized to reprint

During the G20 Summit and the APEC Informal Leaders’ Meeting, Chinese and American leaders met. After that, the governor of the People’s Bank of China met with the US Treasury Secretary, the Chinese Minister of Commerce, the US trade representative and the climate envoy of China and the US successively. On November 21, the defense ministers of China and the US met in Cambodia. The sudden series of interactions between China and the United States gave a feeling that China US relations were undergoing significant changes. A large number of positive and optimistic articles began to appear in the Chinese public opinion field, such as the warming of China US relations, the stable period of China US relations, the end of the first phase of the China US game, and the passage of China US relations through the dangerous period, which seemed to give a sense of clearing up the clouds.

Have China and the United States really passed the dangerous period and are about to usher in major changes? I believe that the current China US relations are still in a very serious, complex and dangerous state. The containment, strangulation, attack and blockade of China by the United States have not changed in any real way. The China US relations are not moving towards relaxation, but are still moving towards a more dangerous, more worrying, more alert and more need to strengthen defense It is childish, harmful and extremely dangerous to change the understanding and public opinion of the containment policy against China.

Let’s first look at the following seven things, whether we can feel a growing sense of crisis and hardship.

First, on November 21, it was reported that TSMC’s founder, Zhang Zhongmou, confirmed that TSMC would set up a 3 nanometer advanced process chip factory in Arizona. Previously, TSMC had always placed its chip factory with the most advanced manufacturing process in Taiwan Province, keeping Taiwan’s technological gap ahead of other countries and regions by two to three generations. In 2020, TSMC’s investment in building a 5nm chip factory in the United States has begun to break this practice, because at that time, TSMC’s chip factory with a 3nm process in Taiwan did not have mass production, and building a 5nm chip factory in the United States is equivalent to synchronizing with Taiwan’s chip factory. Now, TSMC’s chip factory in Taiwan has just produced 3nm chips in mass production, so it is necessary to build a 3nm chip factory in the United States simultaneously, It is obvious that TSMC has no intention of continuing to keep the chip manufacturing process gap between Taiwan and the United States. As reported by the Taiwan media, TSMC is cooperating with the chip Quartet strategy of the United States to contain the Chinese Mainland and relocate high-end chip manufacturing plants to the United States. The final result will be the hollowing out of Taiwan’s high-end chip industry, which also shows to some extent that Tsai Ing wen has been completely controlled by the United States, The Taiwan authorities are viewing Taiwan as a “state” of the United States, entrusted by the United States to implement American policies and strategies on major issues.

Second, it has been reported recently that the United States is expanding its air base in Australia to facilitate the deployment of B-52 strategic bombers capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Later, the media reported that the United States decided to sell 24 C-130J “Super Hercules” military transport aircraft and related equipment to Australia. On September 15, 2021, the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia announced the establishment of a new trilateral security partnership called “AUKUS”. After receiving the commitment of the United States and the United Kingdom to support the Australian navy in establishing a nuclear submarine force, Australia unilaterally announced the termination of the conventional submarine agreement reached with France, and instead ordered eight nuclear powered attack submarines from the United States and the United Kingdom. From building a nuclear submarine force to deploying strategic bombers capable of carrying nuclear warheads to purchasing a large number of super Hercules transport aircraft, what is the United States doing? Obviously, the United States is building Australia into the largest nuclear armed strategic force in the Asia Pacific region outside the United States. Its purpose is to implement nuclear encirclement and containment against China. This is not a short-term arrangement, but a long-term strategy. It is an important part of the United States’ strategic containment against China.

Third, the recent meeting between the leaders of China and Japan has led some people to analyze that China Japan relations have begun to improve. Perhaps everyone has overlooked an important event. Japan’s Defense Minister Yasuhiro Hamada announced on November 4 that Japan has officially joined the NATO Network Defense Center of Excellence. The accession of South Korea and Japan to this center marks that Japan and South Korea will enjoy the power of professional support for network defense that only NATO member countries can enjoy. In fact, it can be understood that Japan and South Korea have become members of NATO in network defense. More importantly, it can be understood that the United States has made significant progress in NATO’s eastward expansion to the Asia Pacific region. At least in network warfare, Japan and South Korea have integrated with NATO and become strategic allies. We also need to note that the network defense here can also be understood as network attack or network warfare. Although Japan is the second Asian country to join this center, Japan’s influence is obviously greater than that of South Korea. In addition, China Japan relations are more complex, China Japan conflicts are more acute, and China Japan geopolitical conflicts are more intense. It can be considered that Japan’s accession to NATO related organizations is a very bad beginning of NATO’s eastward expansion to Asia and China’s periphery, which will certainly pose a serious threat to China’s international security environment. This incident shows that the United States has made significant progress in the eastward expansion of NATO in the Asia Pacific region.

Fourth, the United States’ ally, the United Kingdom, has played a black hand in China’s investment. On November 17, Wentai Technology, a Chinese company, released an announcement that Anshi Semiconductor, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, was forced to sell at least 86% of the shares of Newport Wafer Fab, a British semiconductor company that it had previously acquired, after receiving a formal notice from the British Ministry of Commerce, Energy and Industrial Strategy. The reason given was that the acquisition endangered national security. “We welcome foreign trade and investment in support of growth and employment, but if we find that there are risks to national security, we will act decisively.” Previously, Wentai Technology’s acquisition of NWF had passed two security reviews by the British government. Now, it has arbitrarily generalized the concept of national security, abused national power, directly intervened in the normal investment and cooperation of Chinese enterprises in the UK, damaged the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises, and seriously violated the market economy principles and international trade rules that the UK has always touted. Previously, the Ottawa government of Canada ordered that four Chinese companies, including China Mining (Hong Kong) Rare Metal Resources Co., Ltd., Shengze Lithium International Co., Ltd. and Zangger Mining Investment (Chengdu) Co., Ltd., must sell their shares in Power Metals, Chile Lithium and Super Lithium respectively. The Canadian Minister of Industry said that Canada welcomes foreign direct investment by companies that “share our interests and values”, but will “take decisive action when investment threatens our national security and key mineral supply chains”. A former official of the US Department of Commerce said the move marked that “Canada’s national security policy has shifted from traditional national security risks to key supply chain risks”. The United Kingdom and Canada are both governments waving the banner of “national security” to expel the investment formed by Chinese companies, which is in line with the national strategy of the United States to expel, embargo and blockade China in the field of key technologies and resources. Although there is no name of “decoupling” and “cold war”, there is a reality of “decoupling” and “cold war”, which is to cooperate with China in low-end industries, “Decoupling” and “Cold War” with China in high-end industries and key resources.

Fifth, on October 27, the US Department of Defense released the latest three strategic documents, namely, the “2022 National Defense Strategy”, the “Nuclear Posture Assessment Report” and the “Missile Defense Assessment Report”. These documents outlined the fundamental transformation of the US nuclear weapons policy. The purpose of the US nuclear weapons development is no longer to deter or respond to nuclear attacks, but to deter or respond to major attacks against the US or its allies, That is to say, the United States can also use nuclear weapons in conventional war. The new Nuclear Posture Assessment continues the policy that the United States can use nuclear weapons to deter or respond to non nuclear attacks by the enemy’s conventional, biological, chemical and even cyber weapons. These three strategic documents identify China as the largest long-term threat to the security of the United States, and regard China and Russia as “strategic opponents” and “unprecedented dangers and challenges”. Nuclear weapons are the basis of the United States’ strategic defense, and the United States will continue to invest in nuclear forces. The release of these three reports shows that China US relations cannot be improved in the short term. The strategic confrontation policy of the United States towards China is a long-term national strategy. China US relations will never change substantially because of a leaders’ meeting, the change in the control of a mid-term election of the United States Congress, and the fact that the President of the United States often talks about not decoupling from the cold war.

Sixth, the United States began to stimulate and create tension on the Korean Peninsula. After Yin Xiyue was elected President of the ROK, the ROK US relations became closer. On October 31, the South Korean Air Force and the Seventh Air Force of the United States Air Force launched a joint air exercise code named “Warning Storm”. During the exercise, South Korean and American warplanes flew more than 1600 times. The Pacific Air Force of the United States said that the number of flights during the exercise was the highest in history. This is the first time since 2017 that the ROK and the US have conducted such a large-scale joint air exercise. Since the second half of 2022, the United States has increased its military operations in Northeast Asia. On August 22, the ROK and the US launched the regular joint military exercise of the “Second Shield of Freedom”. In late September, the ROK and the US held a joint maritime exercise, deploying the nuclear powered aircraft carrier “Reagan” and the nuclear powered submarine “Annapolis” in the East China Sea. On September 30, the US, ROK and Japanese navies held the first trilateral anti submarine exercise in the East China Sea in five years. At the beginning of October, the “Reagan” aircraft carrier participated in the US ROK joint maritime exercise. The DPRK has given a strong response to the relaunching of military threats and deterrent actions against the DPRK by the US and the ROK. During the joint air exercise of the ROK US “warning storm”, the DPRK launched about 25 missiles in four rounds, of which one short-range ballistic missile landed near the ROK territorial sea. This was the first time since the split between the ROK and the ROK that the DPRK launched ballistic missiles south of the “northern boundary”. The DPRK also launched more than 100 artillery shells into the buffer zone of both sides in the eastern waters. The situation on the Korean Peninsula, which has been calmed down for some time, suddenly became tense again. Why does the United States want to recreate tensions on the Korean Peninsula at this time? I think it is to strengthen the military presence in South Korea and Japan, further create tensions around China, so as to increase the military deployment around China and prepare for interference in China’s internal affairs and military intervention in Taiwan by creating turbulent tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

Seventh, the relationship between the Philippines and the United States has become more delicate. Vice President Harris of the United States will pay a three-day visit to the Philippines after participating in the APEC informal meeting in Thailand. The focus of this visit is that Harris will go to the Port of Prinsesa, Palawan Island, the Philippines, to meet with local residents and representatives of the Philippine Coast Guard. Palawan Islands is located at the southwest end of the Philippines. To its west is the South China Sea, adjacent to the the Nansha Islands. Therefore, Harris’s visit to Palawan Island has obvious intentions and intentions towards the South China Sea and China. Harris’ visit to the Philippines will mainly discuss 21 new projects funded by the United States, including more defense bases around the Philippines that have not yet been announced. These projects are part of the agreement between the United States and the Philippines to strengthen national defense cooperation, which allows the U.S. military to use the agreed locations in the Philippines for security exercises and joint military training. The Philippine Ministry of Defense also announced recently that the United States will allocate US $66.5 million to build three military facilities for the Philippines in the next two years under the framework of the Agreement on Strengthening Defense Cooperation between the two countries to meet current security challenges. Obviously, the US military is preparing for a large-scale return to the Philippines, and its purpose is to build a forward base for military intervention in Taiwan Strait and South China Sea affairs.

Indeed, during the G20 Summit and the APEC Economic Leaders’ Informal Meeting, China’s diplomacy has made some breakthroughs. The alliance system established by the United States against China has begun to show cracks. More and more countries hope to increase cooperation with China. However, this does not mean that there has been substantial change in China US relations. China US relations have neither broken the ice nor eased, nor achieved a phased victory. China US relations are still at the bottom and are deteriorating. Now we will analyze from the following aspects.

First, it is not just Biden’s personal will that the United States regards China as the biggest strategic threat and strategic competitor. Although Biden has a key influence as the President of the United States, the positioning of the U.S. – China relationship established by the United States is the national strategy of the United States, the consensus of the two parties and the government, and even the consensus of the American society, which cannot be changed suddenly or at will. The ongoing confrontation between China and the United States, and even the ongoing comprehensive war, will be long-term. At present, neither the rotation of the president nor the rotation of the political parties will fundamentally change. This state will last at least ten years. The fierce confrontation between China and the United States will last for decades or even hundreds of years. The United States cannot be friendly and sincere to China, nor can it sincerely cooperate with China. We should realize that, The US’s high-tech blockade of China and its military deployment around China must be long-term, historic, dangerous and even tragic.

Second, we should see that the Russian Ukrainian war has shown a worrying trend, which has many lessons worth learning. The current Russia Ukraine war is not a war between Russia and Ukraine, but a war between Russia and the entire NATO. The West is strangling Russia with the entire group of countries. If Russia finally loses this war, the negative impact on China will be considerable. At present, there are a large number of voices supporting Ukraine, that is, supporting the United States and NATO, in the Chinese public opinion arena. This is very dangerous. In addition, there are a large number of experts and scholars in the strategic research field who hope that China can sit on the mountain and watch the tiger fight, and gain benefits from the two defeats of Russia and Ukraine, which is more speculative and dangerous. Once Russia loses or fails in Ukraine, all the global strategic pressure will immediately turn to China, and the United States will tear off even the slightest disguise and take a more comprehensive, more vicious and more ruthless attack on China. Just as Canada and the United Kingdom drive China’s investment in Canada, the entire western world will drive Chinese investment, Chinese companies, or even not, Instead, they will directly and crazily plunder a large amount of Chinese assets overseas, and the whole West will impose sanctions and blockades on China in an all-round way. Therefore, I believe that the outcome of the Russian Ukrainian war is not only related to the survival of Russia, but also has a significant relationship with China. No matter what methods and means are adopted, China must substantively support Russia to ensure that Russia can win the war, otherwise the consequences will be very serious. What we should pay attention to here is that Russia is now facing the whole vicious group of Western countries. If Russia loses, it will also deal with China in the future.

Third, in the past, we generally believed that the Russian Ukrainian war could not break out. Few people could predict the process of today’s proxy war between Russia and NATO in Ukraine. Now, if we carefully analyze the seven aspects of the strategic layout of the United States against China and around China that we summarized earlier, we will feel very worried. Will the United States really not start a war around China? If not, why would the United States deploy all its strategic nuclear weapons in the air and sea to Australia? Why should we provoke tension on the Korean Peninsula again? Why should we transfer TSMC to the US mainland and arm Taiwan with all our strength? Why is it so urgent to talk with the Philippines about the expansion and reopening of US military bases in the Philippines? Why should Japan and South Korea be attracted to join the NATO Network Defense Center of Excellence? All the truth and real intention are hidden behind Biden’s fake smiling face.

No, The United States is stepping up its military deployment around China, fighting a chip war against China, using the Russia Ukraine war to consume or even destroy Russia, and then leading its allies to encircle and suppress China. Apart from what is said orally, there is no indication that the United States is ready to ease relations with China, that the United States intends to cooperate with China, or that the United States will abandon Taiwan. The US embargo on China’s high-tech, especially high-end chips, has been continuing and intensified, which has seriously affected China’s industrial upgrading. Moreover, this high-tech war will last for a long time, and will not stop until China has made a complete breakthrough in the high-end chip field. The encirclement and suppression of China by the United States will not be relaxed for a moment, but will become more and more vicious, unscrupulous and even shameless. Here, we must not be deceived by the US strategy, verbal statements and shameless lies.

Fifth, we must not be complacent because of the achievements China has made in diplomacy, and forget the extreme hatred of the United States and Western countries towards China’s rise and the extremely complex and serious situation China is facing. Now China must strengthen the spirit of struggle. Under the current situation, it is still necessary to give priority to the struggle against the United States, rather than looking forward to cooperation. At present, the cooperation between China and the United States has lost its significance. The so-called cooperation between the United States and China is just to ask China to make greater concessions in the climate negotiations, to suppress North Korea and not to resist, to ask China not to support Russia, to let the United States and the West defeat Russia completely on the Ukrainian battlefield, to ask China to stop developing advanced weapons and equipment, and not to confront the United States militarily, It is only to ask China to give up its commitment to Wutong Taiwan and allow Taiwan to move towards substantive independence. It is only to ask China to continue to sell cheap goods to the United States to ease the crisis of high inflation and high debt in the United States. Therefore, I do not suggest that China conduct any substantive negotiations with the United States at present, because the United States is still in the stage of the most arrogant, shameless and unscrupulous strangulation of China. At this stage, negotiations and cooperation between China and the United States will not yield any benefits, and will not achieve any results of value to China. We should fight first and fight against the arrogance of the United States. Through struggle, the United States had to bend its knees to negotiate with China. Only then can we talk about cooperation fairly. Any victory at the negotiating table is based on victory on the battlefield. Without victory on the battlefield, don’t talk about how to achieve results on the negotiating table. The Sino US negotiations in the Korean War proved everything.

Therefore, I believe that we should have a clear understanding and accurate judgment of the current China US relations. It is far from the time when China US relations are getting better, are far from the time when they are easing, and are far from the time when we are talking about constructive cooperation. At this stage, we should never fantasize about China US friendship, which is a slap in the face.

We should be prepared for the continued deterioration of China US relations, for a more complex and serious situation, for a major battle and a hard battle, and for bloodshed and sacrifice for the sake of national dignity, security, sovereignty and interests. In short, at this stage, there will be no substantive cooperation between China and the United States except for confrontation, and there will be no other relationship except for struggle. If we give up the struggle, we will lose everything.

Struggle, struggle, struggle.

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