Author: Xusheng source: Xusheng (official account ID: lxlong20) has been authorized to reprint
Few people object to the idea that the United States is a rogue. After all, the United States is the hegemon of the world today. It boasts that it is a special one and can be called the leader of the rogue world. Of course, some American fans believe that the United States is as pure as a white lotus flower and never plays hooligans.
To ask what rogue tricks the United States has played, many old ironies in the media can cite a few examples. After all, in recent years, the United States has often acted as a rogue through military hegemony (fighting overseas for a long time), financial hegemony (cutting leeks all over the world), scientific and technological hegemony (imposing blockades on many countries), trade hegemony (and China’s trade war), and so on.
If you want to talk about the most rogue trick that the United States has played, many people are afraid that it will be difficult. After all, there are too many rogue tactics, and it is not easy to choose.
In my personal understanding, the most rogue trick that the United States has ever done is the announcement by its allies on September 6 that it will implement a “guiding price” for Russian oil, initially set at $44 per barrel.
Seeing this news, I remembered the scene of a GUI flirting with a little nun in Mr. Lu Xun’s true story of ah Q. Although there are many hoodlums in this world, in my mind, Agui’s flirtation with little nuns can be called the ceiling of the hoodlums.
The fact that the United States has set a “guide price” for Russian oil is comparable to Agui’s flirting with the little nun. So there are three main reasons for saying this.
The reason of hooliganism: 1. Interference in the internal affairs of other countries.
We are not unfamiliar with the word “guided price”. For example, in the field of real estate in China, countless guiding prices have been issued in recent years, including rising guiding prices and falling guiding prices. However, China sets a guiding price for real estate, which is a normal political and economic means to regulate and control its own economic field.
According to the current international rules, the United States sets a “guiding price” for Russian crude oil, which is typical interference in Russia’s internal affairs and belongs to hegemony. Of course, the United States also has a set of arguments. The reason why it interferes in Russia’s internal affairs is that Russia interfered in Ukraine’s internal affairs first, and the United States supports Ukraine by helping Ukraine.
On the rogue experience of interfering in other countries’ internal affairs, both the United States and Russia have rich experience. However, the reason why the United States plays rogue is higher than Russia is that the United States can organically combine rogue playing with practical interests and spiritual humiliation.
Rogue reasons: 2. Price bargaining is too fierce.
Today, the international oil price is still at a high level, with the price per barrel higher than $85. The “guiding price” set by the United States for Russia is $44, which is equivalent to a direct halving.
To tell the truth, this is no different from robbery, which is naked robbery.
You should know that Russia is not an ordinary country, but a permanent member of the United Nations. Even if the war in Ukraine is not fought smoothly, Russia’s comprehensive military strength is still the top three in the global village, and its nuclear weapons arsenal is the top two in the global village.
To tell the truth, looking at the global village, the only country that dares to take advantage of Russia in such a flagrant way is the United States. In the eyes of other countries, Russia is ferocious; And the United States regards Russia as a little nun who can take advantage of it.
——What is high-end rogue? This is it.
Rogue reason 3, naked humiliation.
You may wonder why the United States does not lower the guidance price since it is playing a rogue? Because the production cost price of Russian crude oil is 44 dollars per barrel.
The United States has set the guiding price at $44, which is equivalent to letting Russia work as coolies for its American allies free of charge and squeezing the residual value of Russian oil.
Even if Russia is defeated in Ukraine, the treatment will be no more than this.
This “guidance price” of the United States is tantamount to humiliating Russia as a “defeated country”. After World War I, Britain and France were not so harsh on Germany.
——What is a top rogue? This is it.
Will Russia accept this so-called “guide price”? Of course not. According to Russia’s national character, it would rather fight a world war than suffer such humiliation.
The United States also knows that Russia will not easily accept this so-called “guided price”. Why should it do this? The answer has several layers.
The first answer is to create trouble for Russia.
In fact, the United States would like to have Russia’s oil completely blocked, but it can’t do it at all. First of all, Russia has a vast territory. From East Asia to the Middle East to Europe, Russia’s influence is still everywhere.
Second, the world is still inseparable from Russian oil. After all, the global village is so big and Russia is so big that it is destined to occupy an important position in the fields of energy, resources and food.
Since it is impossible to blockade, it will have to create enough trouble for Russia. After all, the United States is still the world’s hegemon (many people think that the hegemon is weakening) and has many allies.
The United States pulls a large number of allies to offer such a “guiding price”, which is equivalent to a bargaining mechanism for all countries in the global village that buy Russian crude oil. For example, India and Türkiye are famous for taking advantage. Although their relations with Russia seem to be doing very well recently, they will really bargain around the so-called “guide price”. After all, at this stage, there are few countries that are as reliable as China to Russia.
The second answer is to launch an energy war.
One of the important reasons for the collapse of the Soviet Union was energy war.
Due to the relatively abnormal economic structure of the Soviet Union, the military industry accounted for 70% of the heavy industry. At that time, to maintain the huge heavy industry expenditure, it needed US $20 billion in foreign exchange a year.
The Soviet Union’s foreign exchange income mainly depended on energy and arms. At that time, the oil bases around the Caspian Sea, represented by the Baku oil field, drastically reduced production, resulting in a tight foreign exchange. In order to get out of the predicament, the Soviet Union mistakenly sent troops to Afghanistan, which consumed more financial resources. At the same time, the United States began to implement Reagan economics.
Reagan economics also includes energy war:
Since 1985, the United States has secretly let Saudi Arabia produce 2 million more barrels of oil per day, making Saudi Arabia’s output exceed 9 million barrels per day, and the oil price has plummeted from $35 to $12.
At that time, the price of oil fell by $1 per barrel, and the Soviet Union lost $1 billion in foreign exchange a year. The collapse of oil prices has caused the Soviet Union to lose tens of billions of dollars of foreign exchange every year.
At the same time, the Reagan administration devalued the US dollar by 25%, greatly reducing the purchasing power of the Soviet Union’s remaining foreign exchange reserves.
In this way, the Soviet Union’s foreign exchange reserves dried up, its finances slowly collapsed, and finally lost the cold war. The reason why Reagan’s game was sought after by the western world was that he dragged down the Soviet Union, specifically the Soviet Union’s finances.
Now the so-called “guidance price” proposed by the Biden administration is somewhat similar to the fake version of Reagan’s energy war.
Like the Soviet Union, Russia’s economic structure is also relatively deformed, and the plight of people’s livelihood and light industry has not been improved; Foreign exchange still comes mainly from energy and arms. The United States hopes to influence Russian finance by reducing Russian energy profits.
The third answer is that it is foolish to bet on Russia.
In the past several hundred years, Russia has been the one that takes advantage of its neighbors most of the time.
But for the United States, Russia has been foolish several times.
For example, in the mid-19th century, after the Crimean war failed, tsarist Russia sold Alaska to the United States in panic.
For example, Gorbachev’s reform at the end of the 20th century, listening to the “shock therapy” prescription prescribed by American doctors, disintegrated himself.
In the eyes of American politicians, Russia may be foolish again. The Biden administration also likes to seek successful experience in history (for example, imitating Roosevelt). Now it has set this so-called “guide price” for Russian oil, which is similar to asking the way. If Russia reveals its strategic flaws, the United States will take its allies and attack it like a shark that sees blood.
Finally, I would like to talk about my personal feelings.
1. As the saying goes, again and again is no longer three. The same mistake may not be repeated in the Putin Era. But after Putin, everything is hard to say.
2. The United States likes to play hooligans, because it can often make profits from playing hooligans. In fact, in many cases, we can’t be too kind in international games. When it is kind, it is kind. When it is rogue, rogue is king.
3. A very important reason why the United States dares to humiliate Russia with the “guidance price” is that Russia’s performance in the Ukrainian battlefield is not as good as expected. As the saying goes, blacksmithing needs its own hard work. Russia has obviously miscalculated the war situation in Ukraine. In fact, it can not be said that Russia is not hard enough. In the face of Ukraine, which is supported by the whole NATO, other countries may not perform better than Russia.
There is no room for mistakes in the big country game. Today’s international relations seem inconsequential, but in fact the fault tolerance rate is very low. Especially for big countries, we must be cautious at the strategic level. This is also the root of the rapid growth of conservative forces in various countries in recent years.
