The next three years will be a war of consumption between China and the West. Two countries may become “fertilizer”!

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Source: a bad potato (ID: iamhtd)


Part I: investment from the United States, Japan, South Korea and Europe poured into China one after another. Why is the economic situation not ideal?

Part two: the three engines of China’s economy in the past 20 years;

Part III: what has the global economy experienced in the past 20 years? Apart from China and the United States, most other countries are eating their old bread.

Part IV: on the premise of no breakthrough in science and technology, the future will be a war of consumption between China and the west, but the collapse will only occur in Europe, Japan and South Korea;

Part V: Europe or Japan, which may become the fertilizer to ease the global economic recession;

Part VI: economic forecast for the next three years

Part I: investment from the United States, Japan, South Korea and Europe poured into China one after another. Why is the economic situation not ideal?

In 2022, the global economy is not good.

Europe is suffering from the energy crisis, and Britain is already preparing firewood for the winter;

Yin Xiyue no longer dared to be a leading pro american faction, because trade with China has become the last straw of South Korea;

The collapse of the health care system in Japan caused by the epidemic, and the national debt was triggered several times, which was the biggest drop in nine years;

The United States shamelessly revised its data and rules. As long as it does not look for a job, it will not be counted as the unemployment rate, and Biden’s support rate will fall to the lowest point;

Türkiye’s inflation has almost reached 80%, and everyone praises it one after another. It’s not dead yet!


We are not good either. The youth unemployment rate is very high. If you can find out the details, I won’t write it. Otherwise, I’m afraid that the platform thinks I’m bad about the economy

Interpret the future global economic pattern from the latest two data.

The first data.

In the first seven months of this year, China actually used 798.33 billion yuan of foreign capital, an increase of 17.3% over the previous year.

The actual investment of South Korea, the United States, Japan and Germany in China increased by 44.5%, 36.3%, 26.9% and 23.5% respectively year-on-year.

The actual use of foreign capital in the eastern, central and western regions of China increased by 15.2%, 30% and 41.2% respectively year-on-year.

That is to say, in recent years, global capital has accelerated to flow into China.

Isn’t it that some low-end manufacturing industries have withdrawn from China?

However, investment in high-tech products with higher quality has come again, such as the German automobile industry I mentioned earlier.

Among the foreign capital attracted this year, the actual use of foreign capital in the service industry increased by 10% year-on-year, while the actual use of foreign capital in the high-tech industry increased by 32.1% year-on-year, including 33% in the high-tech manufacturing industry and 31.8% in the high-tech service industry.

The second data.

In the first half of 2022, China’s economic growth rate was 2.5% on the premise that the deficit of the world’s major economies was almost only China’s surplus and that China was spared the global inflation.

And we said that China’s ability to attract foreign capital has been increasing.

And why?

Let’s look at the data. In July 2022, RMB loans increased by 679 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 404.2 billion yuan.

Social financing scale refers to the total amount of funds obtained by the real economy from the financial system in a certain period.

In short, this data means that Chinese investors are relatively cautious about the market, especially compared with the past.

Ten years ago or 20 years ago, investment institutions stepped in one after another, thinking that there were opportunities everywhere, until the climax of mass innovation and mass entrepreneurship was set off. At that time, there were many legendary stories. For example, some bars in Beijing gathered many venture capitalists and entrepreneurs, and you can get tens of millions of investment by telling a story.

No matter whether these investment projects are successful or unsuccessful in the end, the entrepreneurs will start or expand the scale of the company when they get the money. Moreover, many entrepreneurs are bold enough to spend 2 million yuan in a month when they raise 10 million yuan, because they are very optimistic about the future and do not worry about finding money.

The result is that the employment rate is increased and the supply chain is booming, so there are more opportunities. The more investors feel that they put their money in their hands and do not invest it, the more they compete to invest

But today, everyone is very cautious, preferring to save money, thinking that there are not many opportunities in the market.

Investment institutions today are much more cautious than they were 10 years ago.

To sum up, in the cold winter of the global economy, we can see two phenomena:

1? The global capital flows into China, and the global deficit and China’s surplus are all inflationary except for China;

2? Chinese investors all feel that the market is pessimistic and hold the currency to wait and see;

Are these two phenomena very contradictory? What will happen to China’s economy and the global economy in the future?

Part two: the three engines of China’s economy in the past 30 years;

First, let’s look at what has happened in China in the past 30 years and why the economy has developed at a high speed.

1. The rise of “made in China”, represented by electronic consumer goods, has not only driven many products of Japan, South Korea, Europe and the United States out of China, but also attacked cities and occupied land with overwhelming momentum in the world;

2. China’s real estate has greatly boosted economic development, and although it has brought a series of hidden dangers, as the longest industrial chain project, mother Yong doubts that it has contributed to the “bigger cake” in the overall economy;

3. China has fully reaped the dividends of the mobile Internet. There are no competitors in the world except the United States. There are almost no Internet enterprises in Europe, Japan and South Korea. China and the United States have divided up this market. As for the domestic market, numerous emerging big Internet enterprises have emerged;

The above three points, I think, are the fundamental drivers of China’s booming economy. They have solved hundreds of millions of jobs, created tens of millions of high paid jobs, and driven more than one million supply chain companies

With these points in mind, the economy can not do well.

But today, the above three points have all shown a decline.

First of all, it would be good if the real estate could be stabilized. I still want to be the same as before… I think that is unlikely

Second, what the manufacturing industry can overcome has been overcome, and the rest requires a long time of precipitation of time and technology, such as chips;

Thirdly, the dividend of mobile Internet has been basically exhausted.

In short, it seems that there is no new economic growth point.

I used to be in the communication industry. I can tell you where the problem is by taking the mobile phone as an example.

In 2010, with the rise of mobile Internet and the replacement of functional phones by smart phones, users around the world almost need one. This demand is too strong. The market is so huge that it is immeasurable. The market demand for more than 4 billion mobile phones. Moreover, from 2010 to 2016, the updating of smart phones is very fast, and mobile phones may be eliminated if they are not replaced in two years

This has brought about the vigorous development of the entire supply chain and production and manufacturing. There are a large number of capital investment plans, and numerous emerging enterprises have emerged as the times require;

And every wave of hardware upgrading has brought about a revolution in software applications. A number of model innovations and software enterprises have sprung up like bamboo shoots after a spring rain, such as take out software, short video platforms, taxi Hailing software, and so on. Each enterprise often absorbs tens of billions of investment to expand employment.

Therefore, investment, employment and consumption began to rise in an all-round way.

But after 2016, the market demand began to shrink slowly.

Why does it shrink? Let me give an example.

Your original mobile phone has a 300 megapixel camera, and your new mobile phone has a 3 megapixel camera. You want to replace it immediately;

With 3 million cameras, there are 30 million cameras in the market. You still want to replace them;

Because the update of this new technology has brought about a straight-line improvement in the sense of experience. But what if I launch 300 million cameras and 3 billion cameras one day?

You don’t have the power to change, because there are 3 billion cameras or even 300 trillion cameras. For you, the naked eye can hardly see the difference

From 300000 cameras to 3 million cameras, the experience is from 1 to 10;

From 3 million cameras to 30 million, the experience is from 10 to 12;

From 30 million cameras to 300 million, the experience is from 12 to 12.1;

The marginal utility is getting smaller and smaller. You are not willing to pay the bill, nor are you willing to change your mobile phone

Ten years ago, technology was a revolutionary progress. Today, it is only the improvement of technology. At most, the faster the computing speed and the better the camera effect can not stimulate people’s consumption desire.

No matter how good your mobile phone is, it’s almost the same as before. I don’t want to change it.

As a result, the sales of mobile phones are getting lower and lower.

In 2017, the global shipment of smart phones was 1.511 billion;

In 2020, the shipment volume was 1.306 billion;

In 2021, the shipment volume was 1.12 billion;

Less and less every year!

According to the forecast in recent months, it should fall below 1 billion in 2022;

Compared with 2017, it decreased by more than 33%;

What should we do if the sales volume drops? The first way is to roll it in.

For example, Xiaomi has started to enter the high-end mobile phone market. In fact, it is very difficult because Xiaomi’s core market is in the middle and low end, but there is no way. The middle and low end market has been eaten up and is still shrinking, so it can only roll up and compete for users in the high-end market.

The second way is to reduce production capacity

If enterprises start to reduce production, tens of thousands of supply chains will shrink together, the number of production will drop, and enterprises will lay off workers or reduce recruitment demand;

Mobile phone enterprises will lay off staff, and the supply chain will also lay off staff;

Those who have been laid off can not find jobs, and their demand further shrinks;


This is the current situation. To put it simply:

More than 10 years after the rise of mobile Internet, there has been no revolutionary progress in global technology, resulting in shrinking demand and declining production capacity. This has further brought people’s pessimistic mood and formed a vicious circle.

Part III: what has the global economy experienced in the past 30 years?

After looking at the situation in China, let’s look at the situation in the world. What has happened to the global economy in the past 20 years?

Let me put it simply:

In the past 20 years, only China and the United States have witnessed economic development, while other countries are either in recession or eating their old capital.

Moreover, the United States does not speak of military ethics, but relies on financial means. To be precise, only China is developing among the major economies.

Do you want to ask me why I just didn’t tell you the reason?

The rise of “made in China”, represented by electronic consumer goods, not only drove the products of Japan, South Korea and Europe out of China, but also attacked cities and occupied land with overwhelming momentum in the world;

China has fully reaped the dividends of the mobile Internet. In the world, there are almost no competitors except the United States. China and the United States have divided up this market. As for the domestic market, numerous emerging Internet giants have emerged;

On the one hand, many European, Japanese and Korean enterprises have lost the market, and on the other hand, the strong competitiveness of Chinese enterprises. How can they develop in the world?

Japan’s home appliance and mobile phone industry has lost all the Chinese and even European and American markets. If it does not stagnate, who will stagnate?

From 2000 to 2020, Shenzhen is a completely different city. In 2000, Nanshan of Shenzhen was still full of wasteland. In 2007, I operated two subway lines and line 1 was the window of the world. What about today?

But London, Paris and Tokyo in 2020 or London, Paris and Tokyo in 2000, there is no change

We finished 5g, but they didn’t come up with 4G

Let’s look at the data:

The total global GDP in 2010 was 66 trillion US dollars;

The total global GDP in 2020 is 84 trillion US dollars;

A total increase of 180000


You think it’s good?

But let’s take another look at the data. China’s GDP increased from 590 million to 1.47 billion, an increase of 8.8 trillion;

The United States increased from 14.5 trillion yuan to 20.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 6 trillion yuan;

China and the United States added up by 14.8 trillion yuan;

The remaining 200 countries and regions in the world have increased by US $3.2 trillion;

After 10 years of apportionment, each country has not even increased by US $20 billion.

Taking inflation into account, especially the frenzied printing of money in the United States in the past 10 years, it is almost certain that all of them are regressing.

So, what is the global economy like today?

We think that the oil price is expensive and life is difficult, but the British Prime Minister called on everyone to eat less and lose weight more, and at the same time, we should store firewood for the winter

Well, this is the status quo.

China used to be very good, but now it is not so good;

Other countries are not good at all, and now they are even worse

Therefore, in 2020, trump will fight a science and technology war. China said, “don’t introduce me. Shall we make the cake bigger together?”?

Trump said you think I’m a fool? Once you get the chips out, all the scientific and technological talents will be unlocked. By then, all the high-end industries will go to your side. You are the only developed country in the world, and more than 200 are developing countries

Today, the world is having a hard time. The fundamental reason is that in the past five years, science and technology have not made revolutionary and fundamental breakthroughs.

All enterprises are thinking about how to stimulate consumption, but they have not come up with a good method.

Not only that, the improvement of science and technology has also caused the employment rate to continue to decline. Why do you say so? Go and see the unmanned factory and the unmanned wharf

The original investment in a 10 billion factory could solve the employment rate of 100000 people;

At present, an investment of 10 billion yuan in a factory can only solve the employment rate of 5000 people;

So why does global capital keep coming to China?

As I said just now, we think the oil price is too expensive, but the UK has to burn firewood for the winter

I think steamed bread is not delicious. I want to eat steamed stuffed bun, but some people are starving.

European politicians can make a fool of themselves, but enterprises are not stupid. Therefore, European car enterprises flock to China to invest, especially Germany.

Part IV: on the premise of no breakthrough in science and technology, the future will be a war of consumption between China and the west, but the collapse will only occur in Europe, Japan and South Korea;

So what will happen in the future?

There is no breakthrough in global technology, leading to economic recession. If the world war had broken out 80 years ago, the city would have been laid in ruins, and then it would be rebuilt. The population would have been killed by 30%, and the economy would have improved naturally

However, the probability of a world war today is not high, because:

First, there are nuclear bombs to check and balance each other;

Second, as a responsible big country, China has played a key role in global stability.

I still think that the possibility of war in the world in the future is very small, so what will happen in the future.

First, a revolutionary technological breakthrough can solve this problem.

But I think that in the next five years, it is very unlikely to happen.

By then, China will certainly become the global new energy center in the next 5 to 10 years, and the automobile industry will become a pillar of China’s future and lead the world. However, this is not revolutionary

The metauniverse may become a breakthrough in the future, but recently we have seen that Zuckerberg spent so long to work out a very bad effect. It will take at least 10 years or more for the technology to mature.

I think the fourth technological revolution is still far away.

How will it evolve if the technological revolution fails and the war fails?

In fact, China and the United States consume each other. Whoever consumes the other first wins, and then can “eat the corpse”

We may not be familiar with “eating corpses” and we do not understand what it means. To put it simply, it is like the collapse of the Soviet Union and the global partition of Soviet technology, talents and enterprises

The ruble depreciated into paper, and the whole economy was paralyzed, waiting for foreign exchange to save its life. The original US $1 trillion enterprise is now sold for us $1 billion, which is like eating corpses.

When the Soviet Union collapsed, the United States had enough to eat… Er, our strength was too weak at that time, and we did not have any foreign exchange reserves, but we also found many leaks.

Therefore, today, any country in China and the United States has collapsed, because one country will make a profit, while all other countries will come up and take a share.

This is why Japan is eager to fight with China every day. It is much more anxious than the United States

Sacrifice one country to make the whole world happy… The collapse of a big country can ease the economic recession of all countries

However, it is very difficult for China and the United States to collapse. Among all the countries in the world, China’s strategic strength is 90, the United States’ strategic strength is 60, and other countries may only score 30 points at most….. China and the United States are very clear that if we want to fight, you will reap the benefits and treat us as fools × Really?

It is unlikely that the United States will collapse in the next five years, unless trump and the Republican party completely break up and set up a new Center

However, although the United States can not collapse, there are two areas that are likely to have problems and become fertilizers to ease the global economic crisis.

Part V: Europe or Japan, will become the fertilizer of the global economy;

One is Japan and South Korea. However, Yin Xiyue is still a sensible person. She no longer dares to fight against China crazily. Instead, she starts to ride on the wall stably. However, Japan is still running on the road of death.

Another is Europe… Now Putin is holding back his great moves, waiting for the winter to come in two months.

Putin said you want to burn firewood? Russia has the largest timber reserve in the world. Come and buy it from me

Here, we must be clear that what the energy crisis has brought to Europe is not simply starvation, but that energy, as a necessary means of production, will eventually lead to a sharp rise in production costs and the disruption of the supply chain, and finally make European manufacturing lose all competitiveness.

Europe has clearly said that it is experiencing an economic recession, but it is still meddling in the Russian Ukrainian war. It depends on when the recession turns into a crisis

Once the energy crisis really triggers a general strike and unrest in Europe, where do you think the relocation of European enterprises is most suitable for their own development?

Tesla’s Shanghai plant occupies almost all the production capacity, but the German plant has not yet started to operate properly. European capital knows this very well.

What do China and the United States think?

Of course, China hopes for world peace, because “only when the world is good can China be better.” we hope that the world will also be prosperous, Europe will also be prosperous, and Japan and South Korea will also be prosperous… But good words can hardly persuade the damned ghost that Japan and Europe are bent on death. That is really impossible for anyone to stop.

China can only say at that time: I told you not to die, you must not listen! Now that you’re dead, what should you do? Please send me some things… Alas, if I send you a word, I will take the blame instead of taking it!

The United States, of course, hopes that China will collapse, but it does not have the ability. Therefore, in the face of its own political and economic crisis, the United States absolutely does not mind pushing Europe or Japan to die

Part VI: global economic forecast in the next three years

Based on the above, I personally predict the economic development in the next three years as follows:

1? Because of the stagnation of technology and the lack of new consumption demand points, the overall trend of the global economy in the next three years will not be too good;

2? China’s economy will take a certain turn for the better. The epidemic will end in 2023, the internationalization of RMB will continue to develop but will not achieve qualitative change, the new energy and automobile fields will develop steadily, the chip has not yet made a complete breakthrough but has taken global advantages in some supply chain fields, and the investment from Europe, Japan, South Korea and the United States will continue to grow… But on the whole, it still can not reach the high-speed development of the past 20 years, Because the three big engines mentioned in the article are too powerful.

3? The war between Russia and Ukraine will last for a long time. From November 2022, Europe will be plunged into a more serious energy crisis, which will bring serious supply chain problems, accelerate the withdrawal and withdrawal of European capital, and the European manufacturing industry, especially the automobile industry, will rapidly withdraw. A large number of technology enterprises will choose China.

The decline of high-tech in Europe has accelerated, leaving only the luxury industry to survive.

Europe has completely abolished carbon neutrality and other propositions, and the Swedish princess has been cast aside. Europe believes that coal is the most “clean” energy. With the economic recession, Europe will even more crazily smear China, and even delude the public into thinking that new energy is China’s conspiracy…. but no matter how politicians perform, capital still flows into China;

4? China’s auto industry will quickly surpass Japan, and reach more than twice the export volume of Japan around 2024, and the speed is still increasing. Japan has lost its last pillar industry. After the major crisis of national debt, it provokes China like a mad dog politically.

5? South Korea continues to ride the wall

6? The United States continues to be worse than others, and it is impossible to collapse in the short term. As the suzerainty of Europe, Japan and South Korea, the United States still has cards to play before the colonial collapse, unless there are more serious internal struggles between the two parties that do not compromise each other.

If nothing unexpected, trump will be re elected as president in 2024. But as the last term, trump will quickly release himself, focusing on how to use power for personal gain to revitalize his family business and make the trump family strive to become the top celebrities in the United States… Based on this, it will appear to be a continuous provocation to China, but in fact it will not cause substantial damage.

The next three years will still be a matter of quantitative change. The qualitative change of China’s economy has the following conditions:

1? With the launch of the aircraft carrier 006, China has “proved” to the Asia Pacific countries that it can protect the security of Asia. The hegemony of the United States in the Asia Pacific region exists in name only, and the internationalization of the RMB has been further strengthened under the guarantee of force;

2? In the supply chain of the chip field, the United States has achieved a balance with the United States. The United States has completely failed in its high-tech containment of China, and the Taiwan issue can not be overcome. “The Taiwan issue is a chip issue in the future, and a special topic will be written later.”;

Or, in the fourth technological revolution, who can become the leader of China and the United States? After all, Europe, Japan and South Korea have no chance.

Therefore, in the next three years, compared with the past 30 years, no one will have a good life. The key is to see who can be stable and who can laugh to the end.

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