Original: Gu Ziming this article is authorized to be reproduced to wechat official account: political affairs hall plus2019
Londonbridge is down?
After the death of Queen Elizabeth II of Britain, who appointed 15 British prime ministers and witnessed the living fossils of 14 American presidents, she finally left the stage of history.
It’s not interesting to talk about history according to the book. Let’s talk about possible changes in the future.
In the public’s impression, the queen is only a mascot responsible for stamping, but I can responsibly say that she is one of the best politicians in this century. With the curtain call of the queen, World Geopolitics will also usher in a domino like collapse.
First, the huge Commonwealth system is likely to disintegrate.
The queen, who has witnessed the glory of the British Empire and received imperial education since she was a child, has always had the ambition of “make Britain Great again” in her heart. The main energy of her life has also been spent on rebuilding the glory of Britain.
Taking advantage of the power vacuum after the independence of the former colonies of the British Empire and the balance of power among various parties, Elizabeth, with her superb political skills and decades of hard work, established the British Commonwealth, which is composed of 56 sovereign countries and has a population of 2.5 billion, under a series of maneuvers. She also maintains the status of head of 15 Commonwealth kingdoms.
Generally speaking, Queen Elizabeth’s situation is actually very poor, a bit like Cixi, who still ruled 450 million ethnic groups and 18 provinces in China after the Boxer Rebellion. She is only a nominal leader. The governors in the South have long had real power and independence, but based on the complex balance, they still maintain nominal compliance. The governors in the north also have independent hearts.
Now CHARLES III and his successors have neither the interest nor the ability to maintain such a complex balance system, nor the monk like will to maintain the perfect moral standard of the monarchy. In today’s increasingly turbulent world, the disintegration of the British Commonwealth is only a matter of time.
In short, Britain should make up for the old road of “Soviet Union disintegration”.
Secondly, the British bourgeois regime may also face disintegration.
Throughout the history of the world, “royal power” will naturally contain “prime minister power”.
Due to the complex checks and balances of power, the existence of Queen Elizabeth has restrained the personal power of the British Prime Minister, expanded the power of Parliament, kept the state power of Britain in the hands of the bourgeois aristocracy for a long time, and also driven Britain to maintain “small government and large market” in general for a long time.
According to popular explanation, although Queen Elizabeth, like Jiajing, ignores the government, she will let successive “prime ministers” guess riddles, and also let “cabinet scholars” and prime ministers check and balance each other. The “unpredictability” has made the work of the prime ministers and auxiliary staff like walking on thin ice, and the “rain and dew” has also made other “cabinet scholars” confident and willing to overthrow the cabinet, so that the British cabinet has formed a delicate political balance.
For example, during the pre war discussions on the Falklands between Britain and Argentina, the queen hinted that her son wanted to serve the country, telling Thatcher’s cabinet that if Buddha wanted to declare war, the war must be fought.
In recent years, with the Queen’s poor energy and weak political control, there have been “referendum brexit” and “elected prime ministers” such as Boris Johnson in Britain, and the power of No. 10 Downing Street has also expanded dramatically.
With the death of the queen who controls the Bureau, on the one hand, the power of the future British Prime Minister will gradually gain absolute superiority over the Parliament and the civil service system; on the other hand, the parliament will also be rapidly “democratized”, and the “populist” forces of the Conservative Party and the Labour Party will accelerate their control of the forces in their respective parties.
In short, the United States opposes the new path of the United States, and Britain will have to face it sooner or later.
Finally, the confrontation between the north and the south of Britain will accelerate sharply, and the possibility of Scottish independence will not be ruled out.
In history, Scotland and England United to form Great Britain, which was realized by inheriting the king of England from the king of Scotland. However, the complex relationship between the two regions is like that between seven Kingdom and savages isolated by the great wall of despair.
The queen who died in Scotland, like snow on both sides of the Great Wall, is the greatest consensus that England and Scotland can get together. The failure of the last Scottish independence referendum was due to Elizabeth’s exertion of her prestige at the crucial moment.
Generally speaking, the Queen’s Commonwealth is like Yuan Shikai’s Northern Warlords, and England, Scotland and Northern Ireland are like Zhifeng Anhui. When Yuan Shikai was alive, no matter how hard he fought on several hills, it was all political struggle. But when Yuan Shikai died, the power of reconciliation was lost, and Zhifeng Anhui put the struggle under the table on the table.
Now CHARLES III is far from his mother’s prestige and skill. The independence movement in Scotland and Northern Ireland will only be more intense, and once it passes the threshold, it will run in a direction that can not stop.
In short, Britain may want to show the bitch brother America in advance what effect California and Texas will have if they seek independence.
The historical comparison between the Soviet Union and the United States is used today not to force rhyme, but because Elizabeth, a super politician, has steered British politics away from all structural shocks since the cold war, so that the world can still see a series of living fossils of politics in the era of industrial revolution.
However, individual struggle can not stop the progress of history. Sooner or later, what should come will come. Sooner or later, the superstructure must conform to the economic foundation and productive forces.
With the departure of the queen, these well protected political activation stones will focus on facing the impact of the times, and the outbreak of concentration will increase accidents and force majeure, making the situation more interesting.
For example, I don’t know if the successor CHARLES III will meet his Cromwell III