Author: lukewarm source: official account: lukewarm studio has been authorized to reprint
On September 8, 2022, British time, Buckingham Palace confirmed that Queen Elizabeth II of the United Kingdom had died in Balmoral Castle, Scotland, at the age of 96.
In June 2022, I wrote an article to analyze that the queen was not far away from her death, and the British royal family had actually made sufficient preparations, and speculated that after her death, the Commonwealth and the three British islands would encounter major crises.
In short, Britain’s moment of glory has completely ended after World War II, and Britain’s international status will now drop another notch with the death of Queen Elizabeth.
The following is the original analysis of June this year. Everything is proceeding in an orderly manner according to the script.
On June 16, 2022, Sky News released a leaked message about the queen of England.
According to the information, if the queen of England dies, the Australian Prime Minister will receive a notice one hour before Buckingham Palace Officially Announces the news. After that, he will wear a black tie, go to Canberra to make a statement that has been prepared long ago, and then take a Royal Australian Air Force plane to London to attend the funeral with 10-12 Australian politicians and celebrities.
British Prince Charles will officially ascend the throne at St. James’s palace at 10 a.m. the next day, and will later be called King Charles III.
Charles, 74 years old, has been officially appointed as the heir to the throne since 1969. He has been waiting for 53 years in the position of Prince (subject to being officially appointed).
The most important job in my life is waiting for the Iron Throne.
After that, Australia will also add a public holiday to commemorate Elizabeth II.
Britain has formulated such a detailed process of the Queen’s death and notified the Australian Prime Minister, which shows that they are mentally prepared, and the Queen’s life may not be long.
In April 2021, the Queen’s wife Prince Philip died. Everyone said that the queen was weak and afraid she could not last too long. In February this year, 96 year old Elizabeth was infected with covid-19 again. Since then, the queen seldom went out to walk her corgi dog and did not attend the annual Commonwealth Day ceremony in Westminster Abbey.
After this year’s memorial service for Prince Philip, the British media said that she “stood in front of the car door and looked back deeply behind her, with a complex and meaningful expression.” It seems that he is quite angry.
This year, Britain also held a grand celebration for Queen Elizabeth’s 70th anniversary of her accession to the throne, but the queen only made an appearance on the balcony of Buckingham Palace once, watched an air show and military parade for a while, and did not participate in other celebrations.
It looks like an anniversary celebration, as if it is more like a large-scale farewell event.
All this indicates that the date of the Queen’s death may be getting closer.
If Queen Elizabeth really dies, there will probably be two consequences:
One is the gradual disintegration of the British Commonwealth, and the other is the split of the three British Islands.
Didn’t you say that Britain is a virtual monarchy? How can the death of the queen have such a great impact?
In fact, Britain is not a complete virtual monarchy, but it still retains a little real power, such as the power to sue and remove, the power to approve laws, the power to appoint and remove cabinet prime ministers, and so on. Of course, the queen of England does not easily use these powers. It is only necessary to sign the documents when they come. She just follows the process and concentrates on being a puppet.
In the past 70 years, the only use of the power involved in the Queen’s identity was in the 1970s, when the “Queen’s consent” procedure was used to add an exemption clause to the information transparency act to prevent the Queen’s private assets from being disclosed.
The queen is indeed a mascot, but this mascot comes from the royal family that has ruled Britain for 1000 years. The political significance of this royal family is very important.
After the enactment of the bill of rights in England in 1689, the king surrendered his power, and the nobles of the upper house and the Knights of the lower house forced him to decide state affairs.
Because the legitimacy of the nobles came from the royal power, and the king was needed to speak for them, the royal family was retained.
The nobles and knights tore and tore. The industrial revolution came, and the house of Commons became the world of capitalists. After five reform decrees, the power of the old nobles became smaller and smaller. Basically, there was no real power. It is reasonable for the capitalists to kill the king. But seeing the rise of new forces, the king kept conferring titles on the capitalists, and did not smile. Everyone was embarrassed to mess with him. The king’s position was stabilized.
To put it simply, the king handed over his power, returned the honors of the old and new factions, and sought a rich man’s life, and everyone was satisfied with him.
In addition to being good at stirring up excrement, the British are also good at compromise. Domestic compromise makes their royal family land safely, and foreign compromise makes their colony withdraw from the process without paying the bloody price of home.
The royal family, which has survived through compromise, is doing more and more towards cultural and spiritual significance. In addition, the cultural companies controlled by the old aristocrats have repeatedly packaged the royal family in the global media. Now the queen of England mainly plays a role of rallying people’s hearts and minds. She is a tool for Britain to strengthen national cohesion internally and reluctantly maintain overseas influence externally.
Like the British Commonwealth, which has no sense of existence now, the British Empire knows that it can’t control its colonies. In order to withdraw from the original colonial system in a dignified way, it accepted the suggestions of the end of history, and no longer directly manages the original colonies. Since 1931, you have been self-governing in succession. Australia, Canada, New Zealand and South Africa have played their own games. Everyone has stepped back. As long as you recognize the British king, It’s just a nominal monarch and head of state.
Note that it is the British king, not the British Prime Minister, that is recognized, so the king is really useful and is the best buffer card for Britain to integrate international resources.
The loose British Commonwealth composed of 54 countries is a trace left in world history after the gradual decline of the British Empire.
Like the skin shed by a snake, it proves its existence, but there is no threat.
Therefore, the Commonwealth usually has no use for eggs. We should fight and scold our mothers.
Note that there are two concepts of “Commonwealth kingdom” and “Commonwealth”. The names are very similar, but they are not the same thing.
The Commonwealth Kingdom refers to the special name of the 15 countries that worship the British royal family as the head of state.
The British Commonwealth refers to a loose international gang organization composed of former British colonies or protectors.
You can understand it this way: “Commonwealth kingdom” refers to Britain’s confidants, “Commonwealth” refers to the younger brother and confidants in the past.
For example, in 2021, Barbados withdrew from the Commonwealth Kingdom, but it is still in the Commonwealth, which shows that Barbados does not want to be your confidant. Barbados is now at most a little brother in name, to save you some face at the end.
In the British Commonwealth, Britain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand, the four Anglo-American countries, are called the four pillar countries, which are the four ruling classes in gangs. Other small countries are all ruled classes.
The four pillar countries plus the United States are the famous five eye alliance.
However, it is estimated that this loose alliance will soon be unable to survive.
When British Prince William and Princess Kate visited Jamaica in March this year, the Jamaican prime minister told them directly that we were going through the process to reform the Jamaican constitution, preparing to withdraw from the Commonwealth, abolish the Queen’s status as head of state in Jamaica and change to a republic.
They not only want to withdraw, but also want the British government to pay compensation, saying that they enslaved Jamaicans when they were colonizing. They once transported 600000 Africans to Jamaica, where they grew sugarcane and bananas as slaves. They have to pay 7.6 billion pounds.
In addition to losing money, 100 leaders from all walks of life in Jamaica also wrote a joint letter accusing the queen and her descendants of “continuing the greatest human rights tragedy in human history.”
In his speech on slavery in Jamaica, Prince William said he was deeply saddened, but did not make any apology.
Jamaica is a marginal member of the Commonwealth, and it has no sense of existence. If you withdraw, you can withdraw. But Australia, one of the four pillar countries, says it wants to withdraw, then the Commonwealth is really over.
In an interview at this year’s Queen’s celebration, the Governor General of Australia said that as long as the queen died, Australia would secede from the Commonwealth.
The Governor General of Australia is nominated by the prime minister and appointed by the queen of England. He also holds the title of commander in chief of the Australian Defense Force. He is the symbolic representative of the queen of England and does not interfere in the administration in practice. Even his words can only show that Australia has made up its mind to go.
In fact, Australia’s ruling Labor Party has been making relevant declarations on “independence upon the death of the Queen”, saying that Australia and Britain have long been unequal relations between colonial powers and colonies, and this time they are determined to leave.
Since the Second World War, Australia has been much closer to the United States. In the 1950s, Britain opened its market to Europe, reduced its trade with Commonwealth countries, and Australia focused more on doing business with the United States. Now the United States has deeply penetrated into Australia in both economic and political aspects. In fact, they have changed their speakers long ago, but they have been paying respects to the elderly. When the queen appointed the Governor General of Australia in 2018, The Labour Party said that it hoped this man would be the last governor.
This time, I wanted to leave the group after the queen died, just to find an appropriate excuse.
Just like your ex boyfriend who wants to break up with you, he will always find a legitimate reason, but he will not tear his face when he leaves.
The Governor General of Australia said that only because he had accepted his fate.
Waiting for the Queen’s death is not only Jamaica and Australia outside the UK, but also Northern Ireland and Scotland inside the UK.
This is the key node of the British National Games.
Map of the three British Islands, source unknown
Unfolding the map of Britain, we can see that the British mainland is composed of England + Wales + Scotland + Northern Ireland. In terms of area, England is the largest, accounting for 53% of the territory, Scotland for 32%, Wales and Northern Ireland are very small, accounting for only 15% together.
In terms of population, England with geographical advantages accounts for 84%, Scotland only 8%, Wales 5%, and Northern Ireland only 3%
There are too few people in other regions. We usually meet English people, but the number of English people is due to geographical reasons. You can see from the topographic map that the plains of England account for the majority and are more suitable for human survival. It has taken away all the good places. There are too many high mountains in the other three places, which makes it inconvenient to build cities. The English people are in an absolute advantage in Britain, accounting for 87% of GDP.
There is no contradiction in the above data, but from the perspective of race, it will be troublesome. The English belong to the Anglo Americans, and the Scots, Welsh and Irish belong to the Celts.
In fact, the Anglo Saxons and the Celts did not deal with each other. The original owners of the three British islands were the Celts, who settled here in 2000 B.C. The Anglo Saxons crossed the sea to the three British islands from the late Roman period, killed or ran the Celts, and the living became their slaves.
Celts will have 8% of red hair, and a small part of them will still have green eyes, which is very easy to distinguish. While the angles have blonde hair or light hair, the Chinese may think that red hair is cool, but the angles deliberately belittle the red hair of Celts, calling them “Ginger head”, which means ginger head. In Britain, 90% of red haired men will be bullied on campus. The underlying logic is that the angles are conquerors and the Celts are conquered, It is a social reflection of the Anglo’s oppression of the Celts.
This disdain is still very serious. Prince Harry is often ridiculed by relatives and friends because of his red hair. He is also suspected to be Diana’s illegitimate son. It was not until he had a paternity test that the rumors were stopped. (I don’t personally believe in this appraisal.)
Britain is also a country with a very strict social stratum. The so-called absolute equality actually does not exist.
The Celts who were beaten away by the Anglo Saxons have been running for their lives in the northwest, which is the ancestors of the Scots, Irish and Welsh people today.
Therefore, the ancestors of the Anglo and Celtic actually have feuds! So Scotland and Northern Ireland have always looked down upon the English.
My grandfather’s uncle was hacked to death by your grandfather’s nephew. You also robbed our land, burned our house, and beat our family to the mountains to suffer. We Celtics have always remembered this account.
Among the three Celts of Scotland, Ireland and Wales, Wales is close to England and stays together all the year round, so England can still live – —- but in fact, it discriminates against Welsh people at heart and likes to joke about the unspeakable relationship between Welsh people and sheep.
The other two groups of Scots and Irishmen, the Englishmen, can’t stay in town and come to trouble every day or two.
The famous film “brave heart” tells the story of Scots resisting the invasion of England. This story is widely spread, which shows that Scots can remember what happened in those years.
The two countries talked while playing. When they played, they swung their axe. When they talked, they married. The queen of England died. The closest relative was King James I of Scotland. Only then did the two countries have a common king. But the integration was not smooth. After James I’s son became king, he was still killed by the English.
In order to prevent Scotland from forming an alliance with France and waging a trade war against Scotland, England charged high tariffs on all Scottish goods entering England and its colonies. In order to make more money, Scotland was forced to agree to merge into England in 1707. Later, it took a wave of dividends along the east wind of the British Empire. There was no trouble for 300 years.
Northern Ireland is the most troublesome.
In 1169, Claire led the army to invade Ireland under the order of the king of England. Since then, Ireland has become a colony of England. England exploited the Irish people by winning over the Irish nobles and squeezing the Irish civilians. It successfully ruled for about 700 years until 1845, when the Irish famine caused by the reduction of potato production, which we repeatedly mentioned, occurred.
When the great famine occurred, Britain was the world’s first power, and it was easy to relieve the disaster. However, in order to weaken Ireland and rule here for generations, England deliberately turned a blind eye to death and obstructed other countries from rescuing Ireland. As a result, at least one million Irish people died, and they had to flee to other countries in the world, mainly to the United States as Untouchables. Another group of Irish people died in the process of fleeing.
Therefore, Ireland hated England to the bone. It started an uprising in 1916 and kept fighting guerrillas with the British, resulting in nervous breakdown of the English. It could only recognize Ireland’s independence in 1922. However, the six northern counties, mainly of British descent and Protestants, refused to become independent and stayed in Britain. This is what we often hear about “Northern Ireland” in TV news.
However, not all Irish people agree that Northern Ireland should be separated. Some Irish veterans led young people to set up an “Irish Republican Army”, continued to shoot cold shots at the English in Northern Ireland, and continued to carry out terrorist attacks. In 1979, they blew up Mountbatten, who was fishing at sea. In 1984, they almost blew up Margaret Thatcher in a hotel, killing 3600 people.
The British are especially aware of current affairs. As long as they see that the general trend is far away, they will immediately compromise with the colonies and Ireland. In order to appease the IRA, they invited the United States to mediate. It was not until 2005 that the IRA laid down its arms and mainly joined Sinn Fein party to continue to engage in political struggle.
If the above content is too long to remember, you only need to remember that Wales is all right for the time being, and Scotland and Ireland are not the same race as England at all, but feuds, blood debts for several lifetimes.
The hate value against England is Ireland & gt; Scotland & gt; Wales.
If you meet a Scot, don’t simply call them British. They think they are Scots. They have their own language, clothing and music. They are Celts. They have been bullied by the Anglo Saxons in England for thousands of years. They are not the same as them.
When Britain was strong, by opening its market to Scotland and forcefully suppressing Ireland, it was able to suppress domestic opposition forces.
However, the UK is now in the decline stage, especially the bad economic impact caused by brexit, and the situation is gradually getting out of control.
Sinn Fein has not been the ruling party in Northern Ireland since the armistice in Northern Ireland, but on May 5 this year, Sinn Fein won the general election and became the ruling party. From the beginning, it was ready to make trouble to complete the great cause of Ireland’s reunification.
The first to congratulate Sinn Fein is another Scotland that wants to become independent from Britain. Their chief minister sturgeon congratulated Sinn Fein chairman MacDonald, saying that this is a truly historic result.
Sinn Fein decided to hold a referendum when it came to power, and immediately called on the British and Irish governments to set a date for the referendum. The referendum plan will be carried out within the “five-year framework”.
According to the Belfast agreement of 1998, the Secretary of state for Northern Ireland can hold a referendum at any time, which can be justified.
Northern Ireland is not the only country that wants a referendum. Scotland also wants a referendum.
Scotland held a referendum in 2014, but because the British economy was still good at that time, everyone still wanted to stay in the UK to earn dividends. Only 45% of the people supported independence, and the referendum failed.
But this time, the situation is different. Northern Ireland and Scotland dare to hold another referendum because of brexit.
Brexit has greatly affected the economies of Northern Ireland and Scotland, and it is the fuse for another referendum in Northern Ireland and Scotland. Everyone does not want to play with the English anymore.
I had bad feelings, but now I don’t give money. Scum man, break up.
Scots are the first to be unhappy about brexit.
The United States began to deindustrialize in 1965, while Britain followed the pace of the United States and began to deindustrialize in the 1970s. This made Scottish mines and docks supporting British industry close down, and Scots were very angry.
It happened that in the 1970s, a large number of oil and gas fields were discovered on the continental shelf of Scotland’s North Sea, with an estimated reserves of 24 billion barrels. Scotland was expecting to make a windfall, but all of these oil went to England, contributing three quarters of England’s annual oil revenue of 11.6 billion. Scotland, which did not receive any money, became increasingly angry.
In order to appease Scotland, after Britain joined the European Union, Scotland received preferential treatment from the European Union, exported a large amount of agriculture, animal husbandry and fishery to the European Union, and received subsidies from the European Union. If life is good, there will be no trouble.
But now that the UK has left the EU, good things are taken by England, and bad things are all piled up in Scotland. Who still lives with you?
If you look at other Norwegians, how happy they are living by the North Sea oil field. We should do the same!
The fate of the British Empire is over. Let’s stop here.
If Scotland becomes independent, it will lose 32% of its land, 95% of its oil fields, 60% of its gas fields, 50% of its animal husbandry and photoelectric industry, two-thirds of its fishery, and its nuclear submarine base in Scotland, although the population of Britain will be reduced by only 8%.
As long as Scotland succeeds in independence, it will soon be able to lead a high-quality life for Norwegians because of its small population and large resources, as well as the sea ports of Russia and Germany, and its strategic control over the edge of the Eurasian continent.
Northern Ireland is now striving for independence, which is also because of brexit.
This is a complicated matter. I’ll try to keep it simple.
When the IRA promised not to make trouble in Northern Ireland, it signed a Belfast agreement, which stipulated that the border and trade between Ireland and Northern Ireland were unimpeded.
When Britain was in the European Union, Ireland was also there. We were all a big family, and everything was OK. There was no problem with the implementation of this agreement.
However, after brexit, Ireland is still in the EU. After separation, how should tariffs be calculated when EU goods enter Northern Ireland?
This means that there must be a “border” between Northern Ireland and Ireland. The former “border” does not exist, which violates the Belfast agreement. After thinking for a while, the English made a patch with the European Union and signed the Northern Ireland protocol. European Union products are free to enter Ireland and Northern Ireland, but British products entering Northern Ireland are equivalent to entering the European Union and have to undergo customs and border inspection.
In short, let Northern Ireland continue to take advantage of the EU, and let the UK suffer a little.
But after this contract was signed, the British side went back on its words. Many people inside felt that we had suffered a loss and had to sign it again. The European Union was very angry, and Northern Ireland was also very angry.
Scotland and Northern Ireland originally stayed in the European Union, which was beneficial and harmless to them. But now that Britain leaves the EU, they have suffered a big economic loss. In addition, they have an old grudge with England, so these two places want to vote for independence.
However, the probability of a successful referendum in Scotland should be higher than that in Northern Ireland.
Didn’t it say that the Irish hate England more than Scotland? How can Scotland’s success rate be higher?
Because in Northern Ireland, after years of demographic changes, the main ethnic group is no longer Irish, but Scottish.
From Scotland to Northern Ireland, the distance is very close. Over the past few hundred years, Scots have moved to Northern Ireland, which has changed the population structure here. Scots believe in Protestantism and Ireland believes in Catholicism, so Scots have a higher sense of closeness to Britain when making choices.
Therefore, Sinn Fein party, a party that advocates the unification of Ireland, has not been in power for so many years. If the main ethnic group of Northern Ireland is Irish, they will come to power in the morning.
Now I can come to power mainly for economic reasons, and the reunification of Ireland is still a secondary reason.
It is not easy to stabilize such a small place, which is mixed with three major contradictions: ethnic, religious and historical.
According to the current progress, if Scotland devotes itself to the referendum, it may not be completed until the end of 2024.
It will take Northern Ireland about five years to complete the referendum, but judging from their motives, the referendum is more like a threat. As long as England agrees to their condition of staying in the EU, the probability of success of the referendum in Northern Ireland is low.
Finally, I said the conclusion:
The Commonwealth will gradually disintegrate in the next decade or so, with Australia and Jamaica taking the lead, and then other countries will join in succession.
In the British mainland, the possibility of Scotland’s independence at the end of 2024 is very high, because I really don’t want to, and Northern Ireland is actually playing coquetry with England now, and their independence is unlikely.
The dividing line of all this is most likely after the death of Elizabeth II.
In history, the British Empire invaded 90% of the countries and regions in the world. Just drawing the boundary between India and Pakistan caused the death of millions of innocent civilians. They constantly caused geographical conflicts in the world and deliberately caused the division of various countries to balance the interests of Britain.
Now, the retribution of the British Empire has finally come. Whether it is the external Commonwealth or the internal Scotland, the first shot of Britain’s disintegration will be fired.
Now, the English people can only pray that Elizabeth II is healthy and can last for a few more years, so that the British sunset can stay for a short time.