Original: Zhanhao source: official account: Zhanhao wechat ID: zhanhao668
On the Russian Ukrainian battlefield, Russia has not made much progress recently, but its losses are not small. Objectively speaking, Putin has paid a price for strategic hesitation!
Zhanhao has previously analyzed that there are three fundamental reasons for Putin’s strategic hesitation:
First, Russia lacks targeted weapons on the battlefield. The lack of UAVs and precision guided weapons has caused Russia to suffer. This is due to Russia’s lack of war preparation in the past and its failure to import more precision guided parts and UAVs from China. In fact, if Russia had prepared for the rainy day earlier and introduced large-scale products from China before the war began, the situation would be much better now.
China’s hidden arrow stealth drone! I’ll ask you if you can’t take it!
Second, Russia is short of money, which makes Putin not want to pay too much economic price for the war, so he is somewhat hesitant and constrained in investment.
Third, Putin wants to see the changes in the game situation and relations between China and the United States after Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan and see whether there is room for operation.
Putin waited so long, that is, from May to August. The three-month period gave Ukraine a breathing space. During this period, the United States hurriedly assisted Ukraine with a series of weapons, especially the “haimas” rocket launcher, which made Russia suffer a lot. In fact, these are some of the consequences of strategic hesitation, and disadvantages on the battlefield will bring chain reactions.
Russia’s recent losses are objective, but some people think that Russia will fail and will be forced to withdraw its troops. This is just the wishful thinking of some pro Ukrainian and pro american people. Even though the Russian army has suffered some losses due to its recent offensive, it still firmly occupies one fourth of Ukraine’s territory. Ukraine has said that it has not launched a major counterattack for four or five months. The current situation is that Russia’s attack is blocked, rather than Ukraine’s major counterattack. Objectively speaking, the two belligerents are still firmly under the control of the Russian army. The changes in the middle will not really change the outcome of the war. That is, Russia will definitely win the war. It is only a question of winning more and winning less, or a question of whether to achieve political objectives in stages or at one go.
In fact, judging from Putin’s recent performance, he has indeed chosen to achieve his goal in stages. He wants to resolve it by tormenting Europe, rather than winning Ukraine at one go to make the United States and Europe more united against themselves. Of course, this choice is also a reflection of its own strength and ability. Russia does not have the ability to eat Ukraine alone, not to mention the strong support of the United States and the West behind Ukraine. Putin’s current strategic choice is to implement the plan in stages, but the cycle of the relevant plan has been forced to lengthen.
However, the three recent events should have infuriated Putin, which will force Putin to be ruthless, or he will encounter greater trouble next!
First thing: Ukrainian army’s penetration into Russian controlled areas
Recent news has confirmed that the explosion at the Russian military airport in Crimea was indeed the act of Ukrainian agents, as analyzed by Zhanhao (wechat official account: Zhanhao). At that time, Zhanhao’s judgment was mainly based on three reasons: first, continuous explosion; second, the explosion points were scattered and all were the explosions of the aircraft at the apron; third, there were no craters, not caused by missiles or bombs. Based on these three states, the high probability of explosion is caused by artificially placed bombs.
Ukraine’s counterattack should be the most fruitful one. Russia lost at least nine planes, worth as much as a few billion dollars. No matter how many weapons Russia has, this loss is too painful. The core reason for this situation is that the Russian army has recently put too little battlefield pressure on the Ukrainian army.
Second thing: the United States and the West should provide greater assistance to the Ukrainian army
Recently, the United States has significantly increased its assistance to the Ukrainian army. Just after it announced that it would provide $750 million in weapons to Ukraine, it then announced that it would provide $3 billion in weapons to Ukraine. Although these weapons are all to be eliminated by the United States, and they are at a high false price, the scale is still very large after all. Moreover, all countries, including Germany, announced that they would increase military assistance to Ukraine.
Why has the United States and the West recently increased their assistance? The most important thing is that the West has seen that the Russian army has been blocked in the recent war, and the Ukrainian army has not completely collapsed. Therefore, they have seen hope again and tried to drag Russia into a deeper war quagmire by increasing aid.
Putin is very clear that such assistance will definitely cause trouble to Russia, so I believe he has started a new calculation. He can not spit out the meat he has eaten. Moreover, Russia’s political goals are still far from being fully realized.
The third thing: the daughter of Putin’s senior think tank was assassinated in Moscow
The death of the daughter of Putin’s senior think tank dujin by the bomb still shocked the Russian high-level. The Russian Federal Security Bureau solved the case one day. It can be seen that Putin was very angry about this matter and issued a death order. The occurrence of this incident shows two points: first, the Ukrainian government is indeed extreme and has resorted to all means; Second, the United States and the West have begun to train Ukrainian agents and are ready to let them carry out assassinations and attacks on Russia. In addition, all these actions are also supported by us and Western intelligence.
In Zhanhao’s view, the biggest problem of this incident is that it has set a bad precedent, which means that the Russian Ukrainian war is developing in depth. Ukraine first started to use all means, and once Russia starts to follow suit, Ukraine will be bloody!
In Zhanhao’s view, putting these three things together is actually a very big psychological shock to Putin, which is enough to make him make a new decision. For Putin, if he can no longer exert enough pressure on Ukraine to achieve greater victory on the battlefield, then both the United States and the West and Ukraine will become more and more excited and create more trouble for Russia.
In Zhanhao’s view, if Putin only wanted to fight a political war in the past, then now he is likely to start using all means. For Russia, only by winning this war can there be political benefits. Otherwise, if the losses on the battlefield are too great, the political losses will be even greater, which Putin cannot bear.
Therefore, Zhanhao analyzed in his article two days ago that the Russian Ukrainian war may further expand or even get out of control.
Based on such an environmental situation, Putin is likely to make adjustments in three aspects:
1? On the battlefield, the crackdown on the Ukrainian army was intensified
The negotiation table, the war of public opinion, the game of great powers, and all these things, there is a prerequisite for winning. That is, he must fight well on the battlefield, otherwise he will get nothing. Therefore, Putin must gain an advantage on the battlefield. Next, the Russian army should step up its attack on the Ukrainian army on the battlefield. It should first win the initiative on the battlefield without any scruples, and then others can take the initiative. Intensifying the crackdown is probably the choice Putin must make. In fact, the Russian army has indeed stepped up its offensive recently.
2? Facing NATO militarily
If Russia wants to gain superiority on the battlefield, it must show strength and courage. Well, in the past, Russia probably did not want to involve NATO, so it was more cautious. But now it must look at this war with the determination and attitude to involve NATO, so that it can become passive and active in momentum.
In fact, NATO is not willing to be involved in the Russian Ukrainian war. The ultimate goal of the United States is not Russia but China. European countries are more conservative except Poland.
3? A tooth for tooth assassination
Compared with Ukraine, Russian agents are more powerful, so the KGB is much stronger than Ukrainian intelligence agencies to really play the assassination game. Besides, Putin himself is an agent. The reason why Russia does not use these things is that such tactics are not fair and honorable, and affect the national image. However, Ukraine used this trick first, and if Russia used it again, it would be blameless.
Under such circumstances, Putin is likely to take such extraordinary measures to achieve his goal. For example, if Ukraine’s high-ranking officials or important figures are hanged, Ukraine’s fighting spirit will be gradually disintegrated. In particular, it should be pointed out that if Russia assassinates Zelensky, Ukraine will immediately fall into chaos. Therefore, if Russia thought that killing Zelensky was not worth much in the past, it would be hard to say later. At this stage, Russia is likely to think that beheading Zelensky is beneficial to the war. If so, Ukraine’s political leaders, including Zelensky, will not be safe in the future.
The Russian Ukrainian war has now arrived. It can not be stopped if either side wants to stop it. Moreover, neither side is willing to stop it. Therefore, the war is bound to continue! Moreover, considering that so many things have happened in front of us, we are sure to have a good show coming!