Original: an Aoki source official account: distant Aoki has been authorized to reprint
Someone asked me to talk about my views on the current loan suspension of uncompleted residential flats owners.
At present, articles about this matter are everywhere on the Internet. Criticism is overwhelming, and the endless wisdom of the people is fully reflected in how to criticize in a fancy way.
For this matter, first of all, the owner is innocent and belongs to the victim, and many people take this dissatisfaction for granted.
But I looked at it. There were too many critical articles, overwhelming, and basically just simple scolding.
When there are hundreds of thousands of articles scolding, it helps to promote this matter to get attention, but if there are tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of articles with the same argument, and they are still scolding mindlessly, it will not help solve the problem, but will damage the interests of everyone.
If systemic financial risks are really triggered, as long as you are in China, no one can run away. The best result is that the United States printed money crazily in 2008, followed by Fannie Mae, and then all Americans’ living standards stagnated or even regressed for more than a decade.
Therefore, the risk of uncompleted residential flats can no longer continue to spread. Just scolding is useless. We need to find a way to solve this problem.
For uncompleted residential flats owners, what they want most is to solve the problem, not others.
For the onlookers, what we want most is to solve the problem, rather than the fire at the pond door that will affect the pond fish.
Mindless scolding is great, but it can’t solve the problem.
On the first day of the news, I saw a report that at least 14 uncompleted residential properties involving 46000 major businesses were forced to stop lending.
In the news the next day, I saw the report that 101 uncompleted residential property owners issued a loan suspension notice. The number of owners involved was not counted, but the number of residential properties was counted in time.
On the third day, that is, today, the number of uncompleted buildings that announced the suspension of loans reached more than 200, and there are still more and more, and news agencies can’t even make statistics of real estate information.
This speed is too fast. There has been a phenomenon of building to building. We must solve this problem and never allow the risk to continue to expand.
For the suspension of loans by uncompleted residential flats owners, we first need to determine the responsible party.
I have read all the open letters of the owners of major real estate projects, and they are very reasonable and well grounded, close to the perfect victim. They are not only polite, but also give the conditions for continuing to repay the loan, that is, the real estate project is officially resumed, and the house is guaranteed to be delivered to them.
There is no problem with this requirement, which is natural.
With the down payment plus loan, the owner has given all the money to the developer. According to the contract, the developer needs to deliver the house to them.
If the House fails to be delivered and the developer defaults, there is no doubt that he is the first responsible person.
Therefore, the developer needs to compensate the owner for all losses.
But the developer has no money. Even if you squeeze the developer dry, he has no money. If he has money, he won’t end up dead.
Now we need to find the second responsible person, otherwise the unfinished problem cannot be solved.
The house purchase contract only signs the names of the owners and developers, and there is no second responsible person. How can I find it?
The owner could not find the second responsible person, so he had to stop lending and force the bank out.
The house is in bad condition, and the owner stops lending. Is this in line with the law?
I think there are also many articles discussing legal issues there. Unexpectedly, some people say that banks are not legally responsible. Owners can only find developers and cannot refuse to repay the loan.
About this matter, I have been to the court for a long time, from the intermediate court to the high court, and from the high court to the Supreme Court of China.
Win in the first instance, lose in the second instance, and win again in the final instance.
Finally, the Supreme Court of China ruled that the owners of uncompleted residential flats did not need to continue to repay the loan until the property was delivered.
I’ll show you the screenshots of the previous news reports on this case.
The Supreme Court of China has made a final ruling that it is unfair for the owners of uncompleted residential flats to continue to repay the loan, and the rights and obligations are unbalanced, so the bank lost the lawsuit.
So far, no one has said that there is a problem with the articles of law cited by the Supreme Court in sentencing this case, and no one has said that there is a problem with the law.
Therefore, according to the principle of a society ruled by law, the owners of uncompleted residential flats do not need to repay the loan, unless the bank can overturn the judgment before the supreme law first.
According to the principle of the rule of man, the owners of uncompleted residential flats certainly do not need to repay the loan, which need not be repeated.
Once the owner does not repay the loan, the remaining 70% of the housing loan will become bad debts, and the bank will be forced to enter at this time.
If you don’t want the loan to become bad debt, the bank must let the uncompleted residential flats return to work and ensure delivery, so as to minimize losses.
Developers have no money, but banks have money.
70% of the loans become bad debts, which is a big loss.
Paying for the resumption of uncompleted residential flats is a small loss.
No matter which option, it is a loss. How can there be no loss if we want to fill the capital hole? But the bank can minimize the loss if it chooses to let the uncompleted residential flats return to work.
Can the bank bear the losses of uncompleted residential flats?
Industrial Bank announced that at present, the balance of real estate loans involved in the loan suspension event is 1.6 billion yuan, and the amount of repayment suspension has been 384million yuan.
By implication, the amount is small, the loss is small, controllable, no problem.
This algorithm of industrial bank is problematic, because when calculating the amount, there are not many real estate projects that announce the suspension of loans. Now the number of real estate projects increases wildly, and the number of real estate projects is the same day by day. It is obviously wrong to only count the amount of real estate projects that have stopped lending at present, which cannot reflect the risk.
The correct algorithm is to count all the uncompleted projects that have the possibility of uncompleted projects as potential loan suspension projects. Assuming that the risk of loan suspension from building to building infects all uncompleted projects, the risk is also controllable.
At the end of 2021, Kerui once counted the proportion of delayed delivery projects in 24 key cities in 2021 sales. The highest is Zhengzhou, accounting for 29%, and the lowest is Huai’an, accounting for 1%, with an average value of about 10%.
According to the most pessimistic algorithm, assuming that 10% of the buildings under construction nationwide are uncompleted, is the bank loan risk controllable?
Some financial institutions immediately calculated the results. Assuming this situation occurs, the scale of supply interruption accounts for about 0.9~1.9% of Q1 housing loan balance in 2021, which is not enough to constitute a systematic impact.
Why does 10% of the uncompleted projects under construction stop lending, which will only lead to the loss of about 1% of the housing loan balance?
Because China’s real estate market has been booming for 22 years, the vast majority of real estate projects have been built. There is no unfinished problem in the built houses, but the housing loans last for 30 years.
The vast majority of uncompleted projects are new buildings purchased in the past two years, and a few will be delayed for many years due to complex debt disputes.
Because the total balance of housing loans is huge, it seems that the proportion of the outstanding balance of a single year is very small.
This calculation will draw a conclusion that the bank can afford to live in uncompleted residential flats. Even if the bank pays the money, it can afford to live, and even as long as it takes half a year’s mortgage interest rate difference to cover it.
Therefore, the bank must pay to fill the hole in the uncompleted residential flats, which is nothing more than the proportion of the money.
There is no precedent in this regard, so it needs to be discussed at a meeting.
The lower limit of the money is to take out all the profits of the real estate loan to fill the hole, and the upper limit is to fill all the capital holes of the real estate.
The final proportion of money should be between the two.
Because there is a third responsible person who needs to pay.
In theory, China’s real estate can’t be uncompleted unless it can’t be sold.
But what we see now is that the sales are hot, and the real estate that has been sold to a large number of owners and has received a lot of money has been misappropriated, so it is in bad shape.
Everyone knows that there are great risks in future housing sales, but we have also formulated strict systems to prevent and restrict.
According to the current laws and regulations, the house sales funds need to be entered into the regulatory account, and it is extremely difficult to take out the money.
If you act in strict accordance with laws and regulations, every penny taken out of the regulatory account needs the signatures and seals of the administrative supervision department, the regulatory bank, the construction unit and the construction unit. If one party refuses to sign, you can’t take away the money, and the four parties jointly supervise.
It seems very difficult. It is impossible for developers to misappropriate the funds in the regulatory account without permission, and uncompleted residential flats cannot appear.
But in fact, a large number of developers have misappropriated funds, successfully created a large number of uncompleted residential flats, and the regulatory account is in vain.
In 2021, the management of regulatory accounts by local governments was suddenly tightened, and there was even excessive regulation and no money.
But before 2021, developers’ misappropriation of regulatory account funds has even become a part of the business operation mode, and everyone does so.
And the uncompleted residential flats that happened today, the time when the funds on the account were misappropriated, also basically appeared before 2021.
Why can developers misappropriate regulatory funds?
Who signed the original loan approval note of the four supervision institutions, namely, the administrative supervision department, the supervision bank, the construction unit and the construction unit?
Who signs, who is responsible.
The regulatory banks have been dragged down, and the construction units and construction units have long been in arrears by the developers, paying the price of their own signatures.
There are still administrative supervision departments left.
Everyone is in the water. You can’t be alone.
Therefore, the local government should be the third responsible person and should give part of the resumption funds. After all, you signed the approval note for misappropriating regulatory funds.
Since 2016, the central government has repeatedly ordered local governments to control house prices, and people across the country have also been boiling with resentment, requiring local governments to control house prices.
Even the central bank has repeatedly reminded the real estate industry of the huge risks and required local governments to control them.
Theoretically, those who share the same desire will win. No one can dare to block the consensus reached by the Central Committee and the people.
Local governments are indeed afraid to stop, but they can pretend to be stupid and idle away, delaying one year for one year.
Delaying for another year is a huge income, which is too tempting for local governments.
Local governments can’t press down on house prices.
It is required to investigate the illegal inflow of business loans into real estate, which cannot be investigated by the local government.
If house prices fall a little, it will be more difficult for local governments to sell land.
There is a huge gap in subjective initiative, because there is a problem of power and responsibility imbalance.
Why is the central government fighting against high housing prices? Because the central government is responsible for risks.
Why do people fight against high housing prices? Because the risks ultimately depend on people to digest.
All the risks are borne by the central government and the people, but it is the local government that takes most of the income from land sales.
Local governments only have interests without risks, and of course tend to support high housing prices.
When dividing the proportion of land sales revenue at the beginning, I didn’t expect to sell land for so much money. This large-scale system reform will be difficult to change for a while, because the interests involved are too large.
But now there is a loan suspension of uncompleted residential flats, regardless of whether it is an economic or political problem, local governments must pay to fill this hole.
With so much interest, don’t think about picking yourself up when something happens.
If local governments do not pay, they will never feel the risk. They will always feel that there is only profit but no loss in selling land.
It’s not too much to take some of the money from selling land to fill the pit.
As for the proportion, negotiate with the bank. Anyway, it’s impossible not to pay.
At present, the risk of loan suspension is limited to uncompleted residential buildings. Even if the uncompleted residential buildings in the country have been sold out, they don’t have much money. Compared with the land transfer fees and housing loan profits over the years, they are only a fraction.
Therefore, we must not attack market confidence and let financial risks expand rapidly.
China’s housing prices obviously have a foam. It is difficult to have a soft landing. If high housing prices do not rise, they will fall. It is extremely difficult to sustain them.
Rigid demand can tolerate the house bought not rising or even falling, but there is no house to live in.
The more rigid the demand, the more intolerable the uncompleted residential flats.
The core of solving uncompleted residential flats is the problem of who pays to fill the hole. When the money is in place, it’s nothing else.
First of all, all uncompleted developers must be drained, and even the ashes are raised. They misappropriate funds, deliberately breach contracts, poke huge holes, and trigger financial risks in the whole society. Their sins are simply countless.
Don’t worry about equity penetration, limited liability system, and legal means to avoid capital risks. These bosses can’t have no problem at all. If these greedy developers’ bosses can live a luxurious life in comfort for the rest of their lives, the people all over the country don’t agree.
We ordinary people, proceeding from simple emotions, strongly demand that the developers of these uncompleted residential flats pay a heavy price. No matter how high the means of lawyers they hire, they can’t pick themselves up.
Secondly, banks and local governments cannot feel that the money they earn is risk-free. In the real estate industry, they just collect money regardless of the consequences.
Now, if something goes wrong, banks and local governments must pay to solve it, so that at least the owners of uncompleted residential flats can live in it.
You negotiate the proportion of money. Anyway, both of you have to pay money. No one can be exempted.
As for the loan suspension of uncompleted residential flats, this matter is too big. Just scolding will only lead to the deterioration of the situation and can not solve any problems. We need to come up with a plan.
We should not only solve this matter, but also solve it as soon as possible, and we cannot allow the risk to spread.
In a sense, it is also a good thing that the uncompleted residential flats incident exploded first and was solved first. Taking out part of the total foam and digesting it first is conducive to reducing the pressure of real estate risk prevention in the future.
Moreover, taking this opportunity may correct the imbalance of power and responsibility of local governments in the real estate field, promote institutional reform, and solve the continuous problem of high housing prices in China from the root.
The local government takes away too much money from selling land, which is a big problem. As we all know, it has been shouting for ten years, but it can’t be solved.
The real estate pre-sale system is a big problem. As we all know, it has been shouting for ten years, but it can’t be solved.
The land transfer fee is equal to the withdrawal of 70 years’ tax. Overdraft will make the government extremely rich in the short term in the future, which is far less reasonable than the real estate tax.
Everyone knows that there are big problems inside, but the real estate tax has been shouting for ten years, and it can’t be solved, so it can’t be pushed.
The existing interests are too great, and the interests are all present, and the risks are all future. Too many people have a fluke mentality, which has brought great resistance, and the reform cannot be changed.
Now, on the basis of solving the problem of uncompleted residential flats owners living and working in peace and contentment, can we take this opportunity to move forward the reform?
The suspension of uncompleted residential flats is a crisis, but it is organic in the crisis. It depends on how we deal with it.