Original: Zhanhao source official account: Zhanhao wechat id:zhanhao668
The United States and the West still fantasize about forcing Russia to comply through pressure, but Russia has begun a new round of major actions!
On July 16, the Russian Defense Ministry said that defense minister Shoigu instructed the Russian army to step up action in all directions to prevent Ukraine from carrying out large-scale missile and artillery attacks on Donbas and other places. Ukrainian defense minister reznikov said on the 15th that Ukraine has received the first batch of m270 multi barrel rockets with foreign assistance. The general staff of the Ukrainian armed forces said on social media on the 16th that in the direction of bachmut, Russian troops launched air strikes near berestovo and other places. Sergei gedai, the military administrator of Lugansk region, said on social media on the 16th that the Russian army had launched many missile attacks and shelling on the lichansk bachmut highway area. In addition, the border area between Russia and Ukraine was also shelled by Ukraine and triggered a fire, and the Russian army also launched a series of attacks in other areas.
According to Singapore’s Lianhe Zaobao website on the 17th, after Russia said that Russian troops would strengthen military operations in all combat areas, a Ukrainian military official said that Russia was preparing to launch the next stage of the offensive in Ukraine. Lianhe Zaobao quoted Reuters as saying that Vadim, a spokesman for the intelligence agency of the Ukrainian Ministry of defense, said on the 16th that the Russian army was not only launching missiles from the air and sea, but the entire Ukrainian front line was being shelled. He said: “the Russian army has indeed mobilized on the whole front… It is obviously preparing for the next stage of the offensive.”
At the same time, in addition to the fierce fighting on the battlefield, there are also problems within Ukraine. Zelensky has just announced the dismissal of the procurator general and the director of the national security agency of Ukraine because Zelensky believes that their work is very poor. Zelensky expressed his dissatisfaction with their work in his speech, saying that many officials in the two departments colluded with Russia and were suspected of treason. He said that Uzbekistan has launched hundreds of investigations into suspected cases of “Treason” against officials of these two departments. “As of today, 651 criminal proceedings have been recorded involving treason and collusion by employees of the prosecutor’s office, pre-trial investigation agencies and other law enforcement agencies.” Zelensky also pointed out that more than 60 employees of the Ukrainian prosecutor’s office and the Ukrainian National Security Agency remained in the territory occupied by (Russia) to engage in work against their country.
Another reason for Zelensky’s dismissal from the post of director of the national security administration should be that Russia directly bombed the military officers’ club building in the garrison of Vinica city with submarine launched precision guided weapons “caliber” cruise missiles in the Black Sea on July 14. The bombing should be that Russia received accurate information and directly killed the participants of the meeting between the Ukrainian Air Force headquarters and foreign weapons suppliers. At that time, the Ukrainian Air Force headquarters was meeting with representatives of foreign weapons suppliers to discuss the transfer of a new batch of aircraft and lethal weapons to the Ukrainian army, as well as the maintenance of Ukrainian warplanes. Some of them are Americans, and ZELINSKY is very angry about it.
To sum up, we can judge that the war between Russia and Ukraine is entering a new stage, and Russia is also launching a new stage of military action.
The Russian Ukrainian war has entered a new stage. Zhanhao believes that there are three characteristics:
1? The Ukrainian army began to have major position differentiation
We can see from Zelensky’s speech that Ukraine is already jittery, indicating that Ukraine is now seriously infiltrated by Russia. How serious is this penetration? We only need to see the precise bombing on July 14 to see the leopard. Just imagine that Russia can accurately grasp the top secret information of the Ukrainian Air Force headquarters, and even the time of the meeting, which shows that the Russian intelligence system has been able to deeply grasp the information of the Ukrainian army, and that there are indeed many Russian spies on the Ukrainian side. ZELINSKY wanted to plug this hole by arresting so many people.
However, the core problem is that such a large-scale mutiny within the Ukrainian army is not only the good work of Russian intelligence, but also a fundamental reason is that Ukraine is losing confidence in Russia’s war, or some people are thinking that this war should not be fought, and even hope that Russia will win, otherwise we cannot explain that the Russian army can hit the missile to the Ukrainian Air Force headquarters at the meeting on time. As this differentiation is likely to be the aspiration of the people, it means that there is likely to have been a major position differentiation within Ukraine. Once the interior begins to split, it is often not far from collapse.
2? Russia is expanding its action and crackdown
After the outbreak of the war between Russia and Ukraine, Putin’s original plan was to solve Ukraine at the lowest cost. Russia’s plan is to first enlist near Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, and then quickly take the airport, transport more personnel and materials to Kiev, and let the elite troops in eastern Ukraine surrender after taking the capital. However, the Ukrainian army knew too much about Russian tactics, so it directly bombed the airport runways and infrastructure near Kiev first, so that the Russian army’s supplies and personnel could not keep up, and Kiev would pay too much. After confirming that he could not win the Ukrainian capital in a short time, Putin changed his strategy, withdrew his troops from near Kiev, and concentrated his forces on the backbone of the Ukrainian army in eastern Ukraine. After three months of fighting, the Russian army basically eliminated the elite of the Ukrainian army in eastern Ukraine.
Now, Russia has basically controlled the Donetsk region and Lugansk region, which means that the Russian army has the foundation to continue to advance westward. Recently, there are news reports that the Russian army has strengthened its attack on Kharkov. And politically, if the Russian army had not taken control of the overall situation in the eastern part of Ukraine, Putin would not have signed that citizens of all regions of Ukraine could easily obtain Russian citizenship. Now that Putin has signed such an order, it is bound to cooperate with stronger military action.
3? The war between Russia and Ukraine is likely to make significant progress in the next two to three months
In the past three months, the Russian army has mainly been “gnawing at the bone”, and the fierce conflicts from the Asian speed steel plant to Lugansk and Donetsk have reflected fierce fighting. However, due to the large gap in military strength between the two sides, the Russian army finally ate the main force of the Ukrainian army one by one. The Ukrainian army used to have more than 100000 elite troops in eastern Ukraine, but now I’m afraid I can’t even see one third of them. In other words, the Ukrainian army in eastern Ukraine has been unable to pose a substantial threat to the Russian army. The Russian army has recently carried out a series of recuperations, but after the recuperation, it will launch more violent attacks.
Now, the Russian army has begun to expand its military operations. According to Zhanhao (wechat official account: Zhanhao), the Kremlin is likely to hope to win at least all regions of southern Ukraine and central and eastern Ukraine before winter comes, or at least advance to near Kiev and control half of Ukraine in the next two to three months. The Russian army’s intention is mainly to prepare for the occupation of Kiev in winter.
For Russia, it should be the most advantageous to win Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, in winter, because at that time, Europe is short of energy, and the global resource price is bound to rise sharply. Russia can not only obtain more oil and gas revenue, but also, more importantly, Europe may enter social unrest because of energy problems and inflation. At that time, Russia will be more calm in the face of the west, especially the anti war sentiment in Europe will be very heavy, which will be conducive to the expansion of Russian military achievements in Ukraine.
Moreover, from the perspective of Russia, when he won the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine, he must also have a process of stability and digestion, so that the Russian army can rely on these regions to deliver resources to western Ukraine to ensure the stability of supply lines. The goal of the Russian army is to occupy the whole Ukraine, but it is doubtful whether Russia has such a strong control ability in the west of Ukraine. Moreover, the United States and Poland are ready for Polish troops to enter western Ukraine for control. As long as the Russian army hits Kiev, the Polish army will inevitably enter Ukraine. Then when the Russian army takes Kiev and continues to push westward, it is highly probable that the Russian army and the Polish army will fight.
Therefore, theoretically speaking, it is also the most advantageous for Russia to fight with the Polish army in eastern Ukraine in winter, and the Russian army must make more preparations to do this, which also determines that the Russian army cannot make full efforts. The real decisive battle is in western Ukraine, which will be the confrontation between Russia and NATO. Although NATO will not fight directly with the Russian army in western Ukraine, the Polish army will certainly fight with the Russian army with the support of NATO. Considering the physical distance between Russia and western Ukraine, it is not easy for the Russian army to fight such a war!
The war between Russia and Ukraine is still evolving in depth, and the Russian army is bound to carry out major actions next!