Author: falsetto Source: falsetto (official account ID: lxlong20) has been authorized to reprint
Politicians treat people, which is usually not good. Because politicians have more calculation in their mind.
According to Reuters and Bloomberg, on November 21, Makron set up a table at the Elysee Palace in the presidential palace, where he hosted a dinner for 49 senior executives of European enterprises, and appealed to them to stay in Europe. It was better to choose France as the future investment country.
According to Makron’s assistant, the guests attending the dinner included 49 CEOs and chairmen of European energy giants Engie, European telecom giants Orange and Ericsson, British multinational consumer goods company Unilever, British pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca, European automobile giants Volvo and Volkswagen.
Makron’s move is extraordinary. Because France is one of the most politically correct countries in Europe. It likes to talk about democracy, freedom, human rights, fraternity and other words (not that these words are bad, but they often turn sour when politicians talk about them, just like the scholar bureaucrats in the Ming and Qing Dynasties talked about benevolence, righteousness and morality every day). This banquet is really a must to retain senior executives of large enterprises.
Makron’s move stems from two reasons:
01 Internal cause: European environment becomes worse
As mentioned in the previous article, the war in Ukraine is mainly a game of chess played by Britain and the United States, with two main goals:
1? Weakening Russia through war;
2? Promote the flow of EU wealth and talents to North America;
War is a bloody politics, which can be divided into two levels:
On the surface, it is the battle of aircraft, tanks, artillery and other thermal weapons and the sacrifice caused by the battle. At present, the two sides are still in a tug of war.
In essence, it is a game of information dominance, rule making and public opinion discourse. From this perspective, both Russia and the EU have failed completely. Now the EU sanctions Russia, making Russia’s life very difficult. On the other hand, without cheap Russian energy, the EU’s operating costs are also rising; This led to the withdrawal of enterprises from the EU. That’s why Makron held a banquet to stay. In fact, not only France, but also many EU countries are trying to retain enterprises.
French news radio said that in the face of the energy crisis, many EU enterprises are considering whether to move out of Europe.
On November 20, the French Echo published a report on its website entitled “Eric Trapier believes that the direction of the Ministry of Finance’s assistance plan for the energy crisis is correct”. This Eric Trapier is definitely not an ordinary person, but the CEO of Dassault Aircraft Manufacturing Company and the President of the French Metallurgical Industry Union. He was worried about the risks brought by enterprise migration to industry, and advocated taking some form of European priority in the face of American rules.
The Echo reporter asked: What do you think the French industry is in?
Eric Trapieta: After the COVID-19 and supply difficulties, people realized that industry is the foundation, which can be said to be the real awakening of the whole political world after decades of de industrialization. This is the case in the United States or Germany, but not in France. After the epidemic, the demand was beyond everyone’s expectation, and orders increased significantly. Except for the automobile industry, it is well known that the reason is related to the semiconductor industry. For industrialists, this gratifying period lasted until August or September, when everyone was aware of the sharp rise in energy prices. Gas and electricity bills will increase by an average of four times, and in some cases even more.
Q: What negative signs have you found? Bankruptcy? Cancel the factory plan?
A: “At all costs” enables all enterprises to survive, even those that should disappear. Bankruptcy is sure to come back. However, I am particularly worried about the risk of relocation, or the risk of stoppage of relocation activities. I know some industrialists who told me that they regret their investment six months ago. If they knew that the energy price was changing like this, they would not do so. I think this is the first signal that may indicate a bad situation.
The obvious signal is that EU entrepreneurs are frustrated by the change in energy prices and are planning to leave the EU. In today’s society, large enterprises mean resources and talents. When large enterprises want to leave, it means the outflow of resources and talents.
02 External cause: the United States fell into the trap
The Echo reporter asked: Isn’t the real threat to European industry coming from the US Inflation Reduction Act?
Eric Trapieta: The United States is rich in energy. This is different! This is why some large groups are considering reinvesting there rather than in Europe. With regard to the Inflation Reduction Act, this is detrimental to fair competition. But before we discuss resorting to the WTO, let’s see what we can do to protect ourselves. Therefore, I support the “Buy European Products Law”, which aims to impose “European priority”.
——In August this year, Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act with a total value of US $750 billion. Some provisions involve the US government providing high subsidies to the local electric vehicle industry, and excluding imported electric vehicles from the subsidy list, in an attempt to significantly increase the attractiveness of the US to new energy and electric vehicle industries.
When the cost of European enterprises was high due to the war in Ukraine, Biden introduced the Inflation Reduction Act, which was equivalent to accurately digging the corner of Europe. In fact, it’s not interesting to play like this, which is equivalent to falling into a well and throwing stones at it; But I have to say that this is one of the important goals of the United States in playing Ukraine.
Reuters said European leaders were shocked by the large-scale anti inflation measures adopted by the Biden government.
The Confederation of German Industry recently warned that a quarter of German companies are considering transferring production to other countries due to inflation and soaring energy costs.
According to the website of the French Factory, the newly optimistic battery manufacturers in the European Union are also considering moving to the United States. For example, Sweden’s NORTHVOLT is ready to leave Germany for the United States.
The French finance minister stressed that to further cooperate and communicate with Germany to coordinate energy and enterprise policies, it is not France’s goal to compete with German enterprises; The real goal is to compete with American enterprises, because their energy price is 1/10 to 1/5 of that of European enterprises.
Now Europe is slowly coming back. Reuters reported that French President Jacques Makron will pay a rare state visit to the United States this week to emphasize the friendship between France and the United States, rather than the fierce economic competition between the two sides of the Atlantic—— It means that the American leader should not be so ruthless, or he should consider talking to the Emperor Pu Da.
Therefore, against this background, it seems a bit sad for Makron to entertain EU executives.
03 How many feelings
1. The cost of fighting in modern society is too high. In particular, Russia and Ukraine have suffered great losses in the past eight or nine months. Ukraine suffered a lot of war damage, while Russia was isolated and sanctioned by the Western world.
Russia’s experience repeats a truth that has been proved repeatedly: big countries should not fire the first shot as much as possible; Even if we really want to fight, we will not be the first to enter the arena. Because it is easy to become the target of public criticism and hunting.
The final entry to clean up the mess is the real master
2. Politicians have a good pattern. On the surface, the Russian Ukrainian war is fought by Russia and Ukraine. In fact, we all know that Ukraine is backed by NATO.
An important reason for the war was NATO’s eastward expansion, which made Russia feel threatened. However, within NATO, the strategic layout of the United States and Britain is relatively clear and ruthless, while France and Germany are slow, hesitant and muddleheaded, failing to play their due role as major countries, so that the EU is now in such a passive situation.
Makron’s present sad banquet was entirely caused by his own shortsightedness.
3. Political intervention in the economy is strong.
For a long time, many public and naive people believed that the western economy was completely liberal. The fact is not so. Western politics will also intervene in the economy. Biden’s “Inflation Reduction Act” is political intervention in the economy.
Next, the EU will also intervene in the economy by political means.
Makron called on the European Union to urgently discuss and agree on the new economic measures of the European Union, introduce the measures of preferential treatment for local enterprises in the European Union, and require the government to increase energy subsidies for enterprises.
French Finance Minister Le Maire further announced the government’s support measures for enterprises in his reply to reporters on November 22. He said that he would strengthen subsidies for European and French enterprises within the EU legislative framework, especially for enterprises with large energy consumption.
The purpose of political intervention in the economy is simple most of the time, to retain enterprises; Or, more simply, to grab jobs. The purpose of this wave of western political intervention in the economy is also to seize jobs.
Especially in the economic downturn, every job is crucial. From this, I think of the loss of industrial chains, enterprises and jobs in China in recent years.
In the past, our public opinion often made fun of the hollowing out of Western industries, but now they are starting to grab jobs; We should also increase our efforts to support, support, attract and create more enterprises, so as to create more jobs. This is the greatest livelihood.