Author: vertical and horizontal source: planting flower city (id:hqsycn)
On July 9 local time, the foreign ministers of China and the United States met after the G20 foreign ministers’ meeting, and the talks lasted for five hours.
The “five hour talk” has become the focus of media attention. It should be pointed out that this translation is simultaneous interpreting rather than consecutive. If it is consecutive interpretation, it means that the effective communication time is only 2.5 hours, but simultaneous interpreting means that the effective communication time of both sides is 5 hours, which means that both sides talk a lot.
? video screenshot of 2022-g20 foreign ministers’ meeting
As for the results of the talks, both China and the United States said that they were “frank and constructive”, but this was only the official notification of both sides. According to our vernacular, the author believes that the signal delivered by both sides in this meeting is also very obvious.
From the perspective of the United States, it is the domestic problems of the United States that really need to be solved.
Any U.S. president, as long as there are economic problems during his term of office, will often end up with difficulties. In the past, Ford, Carter, including Nixon, and trump, were all like this. Biden’s current support rate has also fallen to a very bad 30%, and his dissatisfaction is as high as 57%.
The current difficulties such as high inflation and the risk of economic recession in the United States put Biden and the Democratic Party at a very disadvantageous position. If they are not handled well, they are likely to lose the next mid-term election.
“Asking for China” should be the main reason why the United States is willing to sit down and talk patiently.
With regard to imperialism, whoever can be unreasonable will not be reasonable, but whenever it begins to be reasonable, it shows that it has to be reasonable.
From the perspective of China, the attitude is also obvious. You can’t turn around and discredit me while asking me for help, and restrict me in the direction of science and technology. This is the role of the four lists.
From the perspective of China and the United States, they are playing a game. Due to insufficient domestic demand and overcapacity, China needs the international market; The United States needs to import more cheap goods from China because of insufficient production capacity and to stabilize inflation. It is not so easy to replace them from Southeast Asia or India.
So there is an endurance competition, whether China needs the American market more or whether the United States needs Chinese goods more.
Obviously, China with strong production capacity has more chips.
The crisis in history, all countries with strong production capacity, such as the United States during World War II, the United States during the 1970s and 1980s stagflation, Germany and Japan during the 2008 financial crisis, finally came out of the crisis and were least affected. The reason is that at that time, they had the strongest production capacity in the world. Today, China is the same.
These are the signals the author has observed from this China us meeting.
For China and the United States, say two more words about Japan.
With Abe’s assassination, Kishida will win a big victory, and at the same time, it will accelerate Japan’s right leaning. Now the result of the Japanese Senate election has come out, and it is indeed the result. The Japanese Constitutional Amendment force has won more than two-thirds of the seats, which is a bad signal.
Now the United States can no longer guard against China in the first island chain. With China’s growing strength, Taiwan has become a “thing in the bag”. It just depends on when and at what time and at what cost Chinese Mainland will withdraw.
When the first island chain can no longer stop China, and when the effect of Taiwan is “nothing more than this”, we should pay attention to the second explosive point created by the United States, that is, Japan, so that Japan is right leaning and militarized.