Author: Shengtang Rusong Source WeChat official account: The Shopkeeper’s Dao has been reprinted with authorization
In the early morning of yesterday local time, conflict broke out again between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Of course, it did not take long for the war between the small countries to be controlled. It is reported that under the mediation of Russia, the two sides have signed an armistice agreement.
Armenia and Azerbaijan are small countries in the South Caucasus, and there is another country that everyone is familiar with – Georgia. It is precisely because of the existence of Georgia that today’s Armenia has become a fish on the cutting board of Azerbaijan. When you want to cut it, you can cut it. If Armenia and Russia were bordered, the problem would be less complicated.
The contradiction between Asia and Afghanistan has a long history. The former Soviet Union was responsible for this contradiction. In the former Soviet Union’s republics, Armenia and Azerbaijan became separate states. However, between the two republics, there is a region called Naka, which belongs to Azerbaijan administratively, but is Armenian both ethnically and religiously. I think the reason why the Soviet leaders did so must be that they wanted to take the initiative of both the Asian and Arab sides. This kind of thing is common in modern international politics. For example, the conflict between India and Pakistan in Kashmir was also created by the UK in this way. Only when there is a conflict between the two younger brothers can the boss handle them more easily.
The residents of Naka are basically Armenian and naturally want to be with Armenians. Another important reason is that most Armenians speak Russian and believe in the Eastern Orthodox Church, while Azerbaijanis are Shiites of Islam. Therefore, it is difficult for the residents of Naka region to integrate with Azerbaijani people. What’s more, there is also an Armenian main government waving and seducing around.
Therefore, even in the era of the former Soviet Union, the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan, both under the leadership of the Soviet Central Government, continued to bicker because of the Naka issue. In the 1970s, a senior Soviet official proposed that Naka should simply establish a republic of its own, on a par with Armenia and Azerbaijan. In this way, Armenia will not be offended, and there is a reasonable argument for Azerbaijan. But at that time, Bozhnev thought that more was better than less, so he gave up the practice.
In fact, we can see from today’s map. The former Soviet Union government did not fail to see the existence of such contradictions. The reason why they don’t care is that they want to use this contradiction to handle the two joined republics. At that time, Azerbaijan and Armenia were the southernmost front lines of the Soviet Union. There is a tense confrontation with Turkey, a member of NATO. But that direction was not the main defensive direction of the Soviet Union. At that time, the main defensive direction of the Soviet Union was Eastern Europe. Therefore, for the Ya’a region, the goal they want to achieve is to control it. There is no need to spend too much resources on this area. In order to control this area at the lowest cost, it is natural that the two leaders in this area must obey.
As for why Russia does not worry about the collective revolt of Asia and Afghanistan, it is actually unnecessary, because Georgia is in the north of Asia and Afghanistan. Georgia was once the favored son of the Soviet Union. After all, it was Stalin’s hometown. If the Ya’a region has different intentions and wants to send troops to deal with them, it will be easy.
What’s more, Armenia is an orthodox religion in the East, which belongs to one kind of Christianity., In addition to Georgia in the north and its religious sect, its three neighbors Iran, Azerbaijan and Turkey are all Islamic. So Armenia has no other way out except to mix with the Soviet Union. and. Turkey once carried out an inhuman genocide against Armenia in the Ottoman era, killing between 1 million and 1.5 million people. This blood feud also made it impossible for Armenia to get too close to Turkey.
After the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the independence of all the participating republics, Armenia did a big thing, that is, it sent troops to occupy the Naka region. In fact, armed occupation is more to conform to public opinion. Because the residents of Naka have been demanding to be part of Armenia. This also explains why Armenia is such a weak country, and why Azerbaijan has been so brave in the past. Of course, Azerbaijan was also very weak at that time, which was also an important reason.
Later, Azerbaijan made use of oil resources to strengthen its national strength, and established a good relationship with Iran using its Shiite attributes, and recognized Turkey as the leader. The revenge of soil grabbing is natural. In the years just after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Armenia had a close relationship with Russia. However, they try to move closer to Western Europe and America. As a result, Armenia has actually become a bitter child whose parents do not love and who is allowed to be kneaded by Azerbaijan. But Armenia is not to blame. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the former Soviet Union’s republics moved closer to the West. Even Russia itself was trying to integrate into Europe and the United States, not to mention Armenia. Although the fact is very embarrassing, the process cannot be said wrong.
Even though Armenia is intent on getting close to Europe and the United States, something is really going to happen, and Russia is the only one supporting Armenia. Russia can not ignore, after all, people speak Russian and believe in the Eastern Orthodox Church. If Russia does not care, it means that Russia has given up its responsibility as a great power and its ideal of rejuvenation. Therefore, every time there is a conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Russia is no longer willing to play the role of parents to mediate. However, it is also difficult to see how Russia can stand up for Armenia, such as Syria. First, it is cold hearted. Second, its own strength does not allow it to deal with too many things. Third, Azerbaijan is backed by Turkey and Iran, which Russia is currently striving for as a regional power as an ally. Russia cannot offend these two countries for Armenia’s sake.
This Asian Arab conflict broke out at a very delicate time, just at the moment when Russia’s military defeat occurred in Wudong. This kind of thing is obviously not triggered by the two countries themselves. Whether Armenia takes the initiative to find a problem or Azerbaijan takes the opportunity to make trouble, there are other countries behind the instigation. If Azerbaijan takes the opportunity to make trouble, we can understand. After all, Russia is in a dilemma. At this time, when Azerbaijan makes trouble, Russia can’t say more. We can only turn a blind eye to the benefits of Azerbaijan. Even if Russia intervened, it would only ask Azerbaijan not to push too far. It is not impossible for Armenia to challenge. We already know that Armenia is not close to Russia, although it is covered by Russia. It is not strange that there are Western spokesmen in Armenia. It provoked trouble at this time, and then let Azerbaijan beat itself up. No matter how difficult it was, Russia would also be distracted by Armenia. So, let alone the cause of this incident, we will not get an accurate truth. It is estimated that the United Nations will not get a truth even if it forms an investigation team.
However, the most essential truth is that Russia is unable to distract and the Asian Arab conflict has resumed. In any way, it is unfavorable for Russia. However, it is not very difficult for Russia to settle this matter. As long as we don’t investigate the benefits that Azerbaijan has gained [it is said that it has occupied four cities and towns, don’t be surprised. In most countries, the so-called cities and towns are roughly towns with a population of tens of thousands or thousands, which is quite different from the cities that we Chinese understand], we can just let them settle down a little. Russia can do this. Because Azerbaijan only wants to make some profits, and does not want to see Russia angry. The anger of Putin is beyond Azerbaijan’s control. Therefore, it just wants to harass and take advantage.
However, the outbreak of the Asian Arab conflict at this time is obviously a trouble, or a warning, for Putin. Because it is not only Armenia that Putin needs to take care of in his busy schedule. In Belarus, the five Central Asian countries and Syria, Putin needs to be distracted in case of an accident. But the current situation in Russia and Ukraine has left Putin powerless to distract. Azerbaijan can be suppressed by harsh words or stabilized by transferring its interests to Turkey. However, if Belarus has any problems, it will be a huge blow to Russia. At this time, nothing can happen to Central Asia. Therefore, Putin wants to stabilize the situation and deal with the Russian Ukrainian conflict wholeheartedly. I’m afraid that in Central Asia, capable allies will share some of the pressure, so I said that the next SCO summit will be a very important meeting. Its security significance is no less than that of the Sanwan reorganization in the same year. How to lead the team? Who will lead the team? It’s time to have a good discussion.
There are many contradictions similar to the Asian Arab conflict in the world, such as the Kosovo region, which is currently brewing. The contradictions in small regions have become the chips of big forces. The more tense the game between the big forces, the more the contradictions in small areas will escalate. Finally, the escalation of the contradictions in small areas will lead to the confrontation between the big forces. It is an indisputable fact that the world is becoming more and more dangerous. Whether it can finally stabilize in the game situation rather than break the game depends on the attitude of China and Russia against the West. The weaker the attitude, the more dangerous the situation is. The more resolute the attitude, the more relaxed the situation is.
Therefore, the more heavily Putin plays in Ukraine, the easier it will be to resolve the Asian Arab conflict. The world situation is the same. The more united the SCO is, the more careful the US and Europe will be.