Author: Xia Feijun source: feijunsixianghui (id:feijunsixianghui)
Biden’s first trip to the Middle East ended, and all circles made a unanimous evaluation of this visit: he got nothing and returned empty handed.
Biden’s visit to the Middle East this time has two set goals: one is to promote Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries to increase production, lower oil prices, and ease the inflationary pressure in the United States in order to cope with the upcoming mid-term elections and Biden’s miserable support rate; The second is to provoke the Gulf countries to confront Iran and Russia and create the so-called “Middle East version of NATO”.
None of them came true.
The day before Biden went to Saudi Arabia, Brent crude oil futures was $96.14 a barrel. On the day Biden arrived in Saudi Arabia, it rose to $101.74 a barrel. Until Biden left Saudi Arabia, Brent crude oil had broken through the $106 barrier and continued to rise.
I’m curious about whether Biden went to the Middle East this time to depress oil prices or speculate about oil prices. Is he speculating in crude oil futures? Joking, in the final analysis, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf oil producing countries are no longer losers of the US emperor. The influence of the US emperor in the Middle East has avalanched with the naked eye.
As for the production increase target, Saudi Crown Prince Salman played a word game with Biden, saying that “he has the ability to maintain the production capacity at 13million barrels per day, but there is no spare capacity to increase production after that.”
At present, Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production is 12million barrels. Some people will say that at least it has given the face of increasing production by 1million barrels. But Salman’s words are perfunctory at first glance, which is neither a commitment nor binding. Therefore, as soon as the crown prince’s statement was announced, the international oil price immediately rose, severely beating Biden’s old face.
The goal of increasing production and reducing oil prices is yellow. Let’s look at the “Middle East version of NATO”.
The Saudi foreign minister made it clear that “there is no discussion about the Gulf Israel Defense Alliance, and Saudi Arabia has not participated in such negotiations.” The Iraqi Prime Minister also said, “Iraq has not joined any regional military alliance before and will not join in the future.” Other Gulf countries also made similar statements.
Iran is extremely sarcastic, “Biden must be sleepy when threatening Iran. Pay attention to your soldiers’ pants – they may get wet in the Persian Gulf.” The first half of the sentence corresponds to the “sleeping king”, and the second half mocks the sleeping King’s inability to hold his anus.
What does it mean for Biden to return empty handed on this trip to the Middle East? At the same time that the United States lost the Middle East, which countries have currency uprisings and aggressively dug into the corner of the dollar?
(I)
Before Biden’s visit to the Middle East, a series of major events took place in the world, including the accidents of OPEC secretary general and Abe, the scandals of German and French leaders, and the fall of the euro to the dollar to 1.
Let’s talk about the “conspiracy theory”, which is very consistent with Eagle sauce’s consistent negotiation technique, that is, before the negotiation, intimidate, threaten, splash dirty water, make an example of others, make chips out of thin air, and then use the dollar and aircraft carrier to force the other party to take the initiative to make concessions. This trick has been tried repeatedly.
But this time it failed. Why?
Because, in this world of great controversy, machinations, conspiracy, and deception are no longer easy to use. The world today and in the future is basically one
Play cards
The world of.
If you want the other party to make huge concessions or compromises, you can either exchange huge interests (carrots) or pose huge substantive threats (sticks). Because the focus of the Empire has shifted to East Asia, it has been pinned down, there is no way to make big moves, and the threat of force has been weakened.
It’s time to play the card, but the US emperor is still there, talking about God, sneaking, and doing some small actions that can’t be on the table and can’t stop the general trend, which will only make countries despise it more. Why should a country that has no hard and hard cards, cheating and empty guns face it?!
You can’t offer great benefits or great threats. Get out of here. You’re not qualified to be on the card table.
When the Empire was strong earlier, would the President be refused to answer the phone? After being beaten in the face, he “condescended” to visit the country he called “untouchables” in person. The person who picked up the plane was a deputy provincial official, without a red carpet or a guard of honor
This face is beating, popping!
All countries have also seen through the United States, and they are “not qualified to talk to me from the perspective of strength”. If they are really strong, there is no need for the president to come in person. Either a low-level special envoy can handle it, or an aircraft carrier can be sent for a “friendly visit” to achieve the goal.
Why is it suddenly reasonable now? Started a conversation?
As Chairman Mao put it, “the US imperialists are very arrogant. Wherever they can be unreasonable, they must be unreasonable. If they are reasonable, they will be forced to do so.”
In the final analysis, this is a question of “strength”. The United States has no power in the past. In front of any country in the world, it can feel the existence of sticks and carrots. The so-called real sword can be frightening without being scabbard.
(II)
Let’s look at the US dollar hegemony, the lifeblood of the Empire, which has also suffered heavy losses in recent days, both before and after Biden’s visit to the Middle East.
The first news is that China has begun to settle iron ore purchased from Australia in RMB. Who is Australia? It is the Anti China pioneer of the five eye alliance. Now it is self-evident that it is of breakthrough significance to engage in RMB settlement with us. The news has been overwhelming, so I won’t repeat it.
The second news is that India has simply adopted a rupee calculation system because of its lack of dollars.
Third, ASEAN quietly dug the corner of the United States. Recently, according to media reports, ASEAN is exploring a unified QR payment system to bypass the US dollar for direct settlement. The five major economies of ASEAN, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, and the Philippines have reached a consensus and plan to sign an agreement in November to establish a regional integrated payment network. Under this integrated payment network, countries can bypass the US dollar and conduct foreign exchange settlement directly through QR code payment system.
The fourth news is that Russia plans to establish a national oil benchmark next year to compete with the West for oil pricing power.
On July 15, Bloomberg quoted a Russian document to report that several departments of the Russian government, Russian oil producers and the Russian central bank plan to start oil trading on a national platform in October this year to attract foreign partners to buy oil, so that the platform can achieve sufficient oil trading volume. It is expected to establish a national oil benchmark from March to July 2023.
For more than a decade, Russia has been trying to establish its own oil benchmark, but failed to achieve it. On the contrary, it is the Western sanctions under the Russia Ukraine conflict that contributed to this matter. I have to sigh that the Western sanctions are really a good thing! Under Western sanctions, the ruble has become stronger and stronger; Under Western sanctions, Russia will win the right to price oil… The same is true for us. If there were no Western sanctions, where would there be an independent industrial system, where would there be two bombs and one satellite
Another latest news is about selling US debt.
On July 18, the U.S. Treasury Department released the international capital flow report as of May this year, in which the most concerned U.S. debt position data showed that China’s holdings of U.S. debt in May decreased by $22.6 billion month on month to $980.8 billion, falling for six consecutive months, falling below the $trillion mark for the first time in 12 years. Compared with last May, the reduction was nearly $100 billion.
The above facts show that no matter the eastern powers, the allies of the United States, or the third world countries, they do not believe that the United States can reverse the economic downturn and more closely guard against the harvest of Wall Street capital.
The collapse of the world’s confidence in the dollar is structural and irreversible. The Russian Ukrainian war has accelerated this process. When this distrust spreads, it is often accompanied by stampede. Although the current US dollar index is at a high level, this does not mean that the market has confidence in the US dollar. Instead, it represents the fear of major economies that holding too many US dollar assets may cause losses. Therefore, the phenomenon of US interest rate hike and US dollar index rise, but the major holders of creditor’s rights have greatly reduced their holdings, which is called “deviant operation” by the capital market.
(III)
The U.S. emperor originally intended to ignite the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, abolish Europe, end the euro, and return the world’s trade settlement and reserves to the center of the dollar; Then by raising interest rates and shrinking the table, on the one hand, harvest and suck blood, on the other hand, take this as a chip to achieve the desired goal.
However, this set of play too much, is to die. Because this will only double the vigilance of countries to the United States, accelerate the de dollarization of countries, and accelerate the collapse of dollar credit.
Russia took the lead in breaking up with the dollar, and also broke up with the dollar with others, such as India, Iran and BRICs countries. In addition to Russia, there are also countries with huge trade with China, which are also actively or passively using RMB for settlement.
Russia’s energy and grain, and China’s industrial products are solid hard currencies. They are all going to the dollar. It goes without saying what is waiting for the dollar and the Empire.
In addition, the United States is tightening and raising interest rates, and more and more countries will have a shortage of dollars. Different from the previous dollar shortage, the dollar credit has been widely doubted this time. Coupled with the growing tide of dollarization, the tightening of the Federal Reserve will only force countries to accelerate the establishment of de dollarized settlement and reserve systems.
What is death? This is death! And it’s a big death! History has repeatedly proved that the so-called empires were killed by themselves.