The time has come to warn of risks!

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Author: Kafka is busy source: outsider’s horizon (id:hooyar_380097485)

At the weekend, I said in the article “the Great Inflation in the United States” that as long as the crude oil price falls and the expectation falls, there will be a wave of blood returning from the U.S. stock market, and I am a callback.

Last Friday, the big a strong pull was a little confused. It should have been the index vote, leaving room for individual stocks. Who knows, at the last moment, it forced the index. Today, the LPR of funds will drop in Bo, and the interest rate will remain unchanged.

If they succeed today, it will be a wave of frenzied pulling of the index, capital flight, and failure of the fight. The market will not move, but the thieves who run north to the capital will slip away quickly.

At the beginning of this month, I wrote an article “the bull market in commodities has peaked”. At that time, many people disagreed.

Ask yourself, you don’t need to understand a lot of economics, just look around, you should know that the decline in demand is real.

At least we have been successful in fighting the epidemic in recent years. Our foreign trade exports have maintained growth, eating a lot of competitors’ shares. In addition, China has made a lot of preparations early, and the CPI increase is still controllable.

Don’t think that the world is going well. All the good and bad things are compared.

The data on the decline of European demand is even more ugly. You can boast about the rise of Vietnam, but if you look at Vietnam’s foreign debt balance and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, you will know that Vietnam, which relies on chicken blood, will surely become the victim of the Federal Reserve’s currency war.

I have said many times that the violent interest rate hike by the US dollar this time is not directly related to inflation, but that the US dollar has lost its international leadership. The United States is trying to launch a financial war to mess up the world. In the mud pit, the US dollar is king.

So as long as U.S. inflation is stabilized for the time being, it means that the U.S. dollar is not so strong. The U.S. is still the world’s largest brother, so all kinds of funds will frantically flee to the United States to ensure their own safety.

When the capital is large to a certain extent, we care more about safety than yield.

Today, it is very obvious that I am A. I am heading north and fleeing by a large margin.

Of course, my a will not be influenced by the funds going north, but in terms of time and space, this position has gone a little fierce. If I continue to run like this, it will be a bit crazy.

Under the current financial pattern, maintaining an attractive big a is certainly conducive to the real economy, but it is really inappropriate to create another wave of mad cows.

Another very important news is that Samsung has begun to stop purchasing and check its inventory.

Samsung cannot be the last big enterprise to do so. The entire supply chain will face a blow caused by insufficient inventory and demand. It has not been delivered yet, but you must believe that the delivery speed will not be too slow.

Today, a wave of commodities plummeted, and the unparalleled double coke, iron ore and deformed steel bar were all severely injured.

Because both China and Russia have had a bumper harvest this year, the high food prices that international food groups want to hype can not keep up with their plans.

As for the food crisis in some poor countries, will it affect international food prices? Only those who can afford it can affect the price.

With bumper harvests every year, do poor countries in Africa, Southeast Asia and West Asia still starve to death?

India can tighten its belt and export a large amount of food, because starving people have never been effective demanders of food.

This is a bloody reality.

When the bulk commodities begin to weaken and the price rise caused by the so-called mismatch demand is unsustainable, the logic of rising in many sectors of our a will disappear.

Is it necessary to accept the adjustment next?

There is no market that only goes up but not goes down, and there is no market that only goes down but not goes up. Next, everyone should be careful not to be blindly optimistic. Market adjustment may hurt some people.

Of course, we still have to look in an optimistic direction. This year, the real estate market speculation is completely dead. The real estate speculators with a lot of money in their hands will certainly not honestly deposit their money in the bank.

This is also the reason why the market turnover has continued to rise recently.

This year, the overall capital is relatively loose, which may be so loose that it is beyond some people’s imagination. However, the real estate industry, a large financial family, is still in the doldrums as a whole. As I said, some problems are not solved. For example, if a major event has been rotten all the time, it will always affect the mentality of bottom floor buyers. It is impossible to have a wave like that in 15 years. Even if there are more changes in local areas, the demand is really gone.

The big families who can stir up demand are all thieves. They are really afraid of what they just need. Digesting this process is not something they can do for a while.

So this means that there is no good channel for the money from the real estate in the early stage and all kinds of loose money, except for the big a at 3000.

With this support, my a’s overall adjustment can’t be hit anywhere, but the rotation between plates may be more intense. If I accidentally step in the wrong direction, I will be injured.

Recently, the Hong Kong Russia stock connect came out. From today on, 12 Hong Kong stocks have been opened, and the scale will be gradually expanded.

Due to world sanctions, Russia’s capital market is quite backward, and it has collected a lot of foreign exchange from selling energy. It has to have a place to spend it. Just as HK is a free port, borrowing HK to spend foreign exchange is also a good business in exchange for financial assets.

This is a great good thing. There are a few countries that have bad relations with the United States and have some money. Direct investment in big a has some obstacles that can not be bypassed. If it falls on Hong Kong stocks, it doesn’t matter.

Of course, these living waters will also attract other funds from all walks of life to come and play. Now HK doesn’t make a fuss, just give a few sweets to eat.

This is also a good thing for me a. the financial power previously occupied by the West should be slowly transferred to the East. In this process, there will naturally be many new opportunities.

In short, the prospect is very bright, but there will be some twists and turns for the time being. We should avoid aggressive investment strategies.

I wish you all a good income!

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