The Ukrainian army began to attack the Russian mainland, and the war between Russia and Ukraine entered the third stage!

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This article is reproduced by Niu Danqin (id:bullpiano) with authorization. Author: Niu Danqin

The situation is undergoing major changes. In my opinion, the war between Russia and Ukraine is entering the third stage.

In the first stage, from February 24 to March 25, the Russian army made an all-round attack, and the spearhead was even directed at Kiev, the capital of Ukraine.

At least on the first day, the Russian army attacked cities and territories, and it felt like another devastating blitz. I remember many people lamented at that time that the Russian army rushed to Kiev before I lined up and finished nucleic acid

However, as you can see from the subsequent results, the Russian army was very close to Kiev, and even a large number of tanks and armored vehicles were destroyed by the Ukrainian army

This is not a modern war in our imagination, but more like a traditional war in which tanks and cannons play the leading role. It is also a tug of war, throat cutting war and urban street war. The Ukrainian army paid a heavy price, the Russian army also suffered heavy losses, and the battlefield was deadlocked.

In the second stage, from March 25 to early July, the Russian army changed its operational strategy, withdrew from Kiev and other places, and concentrated on attacking eastern Ukraine, and the war between eastern Ukraine broke out.

There are many battles, such as the battle of Mariupol, the battle of northern Donetsk, and occasionally air strikes on Ukrainian cities.

At this stage, the Russian army fought steadily, taking tank heavy artillery as a breakthrough; The Ukrainian army, which lacked sufficient firepower, was unable to resist and began to retreat.

On July 3, Russian Defense Minister Shoigu once again reported the latest results to Putin: Russia has taken the important town of lisichansk in eastern Ukraine. So far, the whole territory of Lugansk has been controlled by the Russian army.

The third stage, starting from early July, is the continuation of the second stage.

Following the previous tactics, the Russian army will continue to advance westward and southward. After all, Lugansk has won the whole Donbas region, but a considerable part of Donetsk is still in the hands of the Ukrainian army.

According to a disclosure made by the deputy commander of the Russian Central Military Region, Dmitry minekayev, in April, one of the tasks of the Russian army in the next stage is to “completely control Donbas and southern Ukraine”.

In his words, controlling Donbas will help to establish a land route to Crimea; Controlling southern Ukraine will open another exit for Russian troops to the area along the Dniester river.


However, at this stage, there may also be a new feature: the Ukrainian army frequently launches attacks on the Russian mainland.

Although when the United States provided offensive weapons to Ukraine, Ukraine promised that these weapons would only defend itself and would not attack Russia. But in this conflict, we see that the spirit of contract has disappeared, and does commitment really work?

We have seen signs. As the latest example, on July 3, Russia accused Ukraine of three missiles attacking the Russian border city of bergorod, killing at least 4 people and damaging at least 11 apartment buildings and 39 private homes, including 5 destroyed.

Previously, Russia has repeatedly accused the Ukrainian army of launching an attack on Russian territory, but the Ukrainian army has remained silent. But this time, the Ukrainian army directly dispatched missiles, causing heavy losses to the Russian side.

This is a new trend and perhaps the bloodiest aspect of the third stage. The Russian army continued to advance in eastern Ukraine, and the Ukrainian army resisted with all its strength and launched attacks on Russian territory at the same time.


Finally, how will this military conflict, which has been fighting for four months, end?

To tell the truth, no one has a clear answer. Zelensky did not know, Putin may not know, after all, critical weapons can not replace criticism of weapons, everything ultimately depends on the battlefield.

According to the latest judgment of the 99 year old Kissinger, the war between Russia and Ukraine has three results.

First, Russia conquered Donbas and took 20% of Ukraine. Although Russia suffered setbacks at the beginning, it finally won, “the role of NATO will not be as decisive as previously thought”.

Second, Russia was driven out of Ukraine, including the Crimea region previously controlled. “But if the war continues, there will be the problem of going to war with Russia itself.”

Third, back before February 24, Russia returned to its pre war position, and Ukraine established close ties with NATO. “The remaining issues can be left to negotiation. The situation will probably freeze for a period of time.”

Frankly speaking, Kissinger’s three results should take full account of the political correctness of the West. He had previously suggested that Ukraine should exchange land for peace, which was angrily attacked by Ukraine.

Zelensky publicly accused Kissinger of his “peace proposal” for the situation between Russia and Ukraine, which was like the Munich agreement in 1938, “those ‘great geopolitical politicians’ always don’t want to see ordinary people”. Ukraine will never accept this and will fight until it “takes back all its territory”.

But calmly, among the three possibilities, the third is that Russia retreats back to the war, which means that Russia has won a large area of land and handed it back to Ukraine. Do you think Russia will agree? It’s fantastic to let the Russians give up their land.

The second means that in fact, Ukraine defeated Russia and even recaptured Crimea, but from the battlefield performance, the situation is just the opposite, but Kissinger comforted Ukraine.


The first result should be closer to the facts.

Russia took the whole Donbas and occupied 20% of Ukraine’s land. Ukraine suffered heavy losses. Not only is this land the most important industrial and agricultural region of Ukraine, but also it can’t be ruled out that the Russian army continues to go south and fight Ukraine into a landlocked country.

This explains three points more fully.

First, the battlefield changes rapidly, and the final result is the result. At the beginning, the crotch pulling, frustration and failure are huge costs, but the final battle on the battlefield determines the final fate. We have seen a lot of stories about repeated defeats in the early stage and the last move.

Second, the battlefield test tactics are also the test of comprehensive national strength. When tactics change, the situation changes greatly. Of course, it needs strong military strength and comprehensive national strength behind it. Ukraine is a big country in Eastern Europe, but it is still too weak compared with Russia. Even if the army is tenacious and the western support is hard, the Russian army still has the upper hand in the battle on the Great Plains.

Third, NATO is just a paper tiger. Although the continuous delivery of weapons to Ukraine has also caused great trouble to the Russian army, the Russian army’s ability to destroy weapons is also being strengthened. NATO is determined not to engage the Russian army head-on, which makes Russia see the bottom line of the West. Therefore, even Kissinger is blunt: the role of NATO will not be as decisive as previously thought.


More importantly, with the continuation of the war, the energy crisis and food crisis are staged, and even the West has begun to experience serious war fatigue. A large number of Ukrainian refugees have put great pressure on Poland and other countries, and anti immigration tendencies have begun to rise.

War is a game of burning money. Now Russia is under great pressure; But now Ukraine is extremely anxious.

Therefore, the final result does not rule out that in the third stage, the Russian army continues to attack, Ukraine continues to retreat, and then there is no retreat. The West throws the pot and the two sides negotiate.

Don’t expect to get what you can’t get on the battlefield. Only when one side feels that it will lose more if it continues to fight, it is more likely to make painful compromises.

This day may be a few months later, a year or even a few years later. But the longer it takes, the more land will burn and more people will fall forever. The final result must be a complete tragedy, but before the final tragedy, we will see more tragedies.

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