Author: Ming Shuyuan official account: Ming shuzatan wechat id:laomingdashu
The Biden administration of the United States originally had a wishful thinking:
——Through the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Russia will be brought to an end, and the troubles of the United States over the years will be solved in one fell swoop;
——Through the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, we should try our best to deal with China at the same time or after the collapse of Russia; At the same time, the United States continues to intimidate China Russia practical cooperation, trying to play a wedge and sabotage in the “China Russia comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination in the new era”.
After the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on February 24, some people in China once proposed to “cut with Russia and make peace with the United States”.
This is an extremely confused, wishful thinking, and even a very dangerous idea.
It is necessary for us to calmly look at the current problems and situations facing the United States from the perspective of the historical cycle.
It has been 31 years since the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the cold war in 1991. In the past 31 years, the collective rise of emerging markets and developing countries such as China has actually made the United States’ status as the world’s only superpower decline relatively.
Especially after the “September 11th” incident, the United States has been mired in the Middle East war for a long time, which is a great drain on its national strength. The subprime mortgage crisis in 2007 and the international financial crisis in 2008 showed the internal contradictions of the American economic system.
More importantly, in the past three decades, for the United States, on the one hand, driven by the trend of Neo liberalism, it was too superstitious about the role of the market and relaxed the control of capital, which led to an increasingly serious problem of polarization between the rich and the poor in the United States; On the other hand, under the tide of globalization, American industries have moved out on a large scale, and the economy is overly dependent on the financial industry represented by Wall Street on the east coast and the high-tech industry represented by Silicon Valley on the west coast. However, the traditional manufacturing industry, which has absorbed a large number of jobs and solved many American life problems, has declined on a large scale.
As a result, the polarization between the rich and the poor in the United States has intensified, class contradictions, racial contradictions and ideological contradictions have become increasingly fierce, and the whole society is extremely fragmented and seriously polarized.
Under such circumstances, the social stability and traditional political order of the United States have been impacted by populism from the “left” and “right”.
At this moment, the most important thing the United States should do is to crack down on large interest groups such as medical and military industries, curb the “siphon effect” and “squeeze effect” of Wall Street and Silicon Valley on other industries and enterprises in the United States, and strive to enhance the economic strength of the United States and create more high-value jobs in the next generation of technological and industrial revolution. Only in this way can the United States “become great again”.
However, it is very obvious that the electoral system of the United States determines that trump and Biden are the spokesmen of major interest groups in the United States, and they are unlikely to attack interest groups such as medical and military industries in the United States.
Many people think that the current economic and scientific and technological strength of the United States is still very strong, but to be more accurate, the whole country of the United States is rushing forward relying on inertia in the “automatic cruise” mode. The acceleration of the national development of the United States is disappearing and the speed is getting slower and slower.
Here are two examples to illustrate the problem: first, Boeing used to be the Pearl on the crown of the high-end manufacturing industry in the United States, but with the successive serious crashes of Boeing aircraft in recent years, the outside world has great doubts about the company’s ability to ensure flight safety; Second, the share prices of Silicon Valley high-tech enterprises, which were once very hot in the past few years, have reached new highs with the help of the Federal Reserve’s “printing money”. However, in order to deal with serious inflation, it is imperative for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and shrink its tables, and the foam of US technology stocks is bursting.
In terms of enterprise management, the United States is like an enterprise “caught in the big company disease”, with many problems and weak growth. However, the solution chosen by the United States is not to cut the edge inward and make a self revolution, but to be keen on provoking global geopolitical conflicts. In particular, the Biden government fantasizes that it has committed arrogant or even stupid strategic mistakes against Russia and China at the same time.
From the perspective of the world pattern, the United States is like a sick “giant”, but its response is not to follow the doctor’s advice, take medicine in time, strengthen exercise and improve its own immunity, but to think that other people are the cause of its illness. Therefore, it continues to use its remaining brute force to attack this and that at the same time, and do damage everywhere.
Although in the short term, the destructive effect of brute force on a “sick giant” is still amazing, in the long term, the “sick giant” will only make it terminally ill faster and quickly consume its remaining strength.
The United States has been advocating various versions of the “China Threat Theory” for many years. In fact, the United States itself is the biggest threat to the peace, development, security, stability and prosperity of the world today.
In the past, this threat was mainly reflected in the United States’ pursuit of hegemonism and unilateralism, its militarism in the world, its subversion and sabotage activities, and its incitement to the “Color Revolution”; Now, the biggest threat to the world from the United States is that, as a “sick giant”, if it does not seriously solve its own problems, it will inevitably affect other countries sooner or later. What is more serious is that before the fall of the “sick giant”, the United States attacked everywhere and caused damage everywhere, which objectively may drag the world into the water.
The United States provoked the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
As the winner of the cold war, the United States had the opportunity to reintegrate Russia into the international system in the face of a self-restraint and white flag capitulation Russia. However, the successive U.S. governments after the cold war selfishly chose the vicious policy of “taking advantage of Russia’s illness to kill Russia”.
NATO has gone back on its word and repeatedly expanded eastward, pushing its generals and weapons to Russia’s doorstep; The United States launched a “Color Revolution” against Russia in the CIS region; The United States even openly and secretly carried out “regime change” against Putin, which is a concrete manifestation of this policy.
The essence of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is the conflict between Russia and the United States.
Unable to bear it, Russia decided to use the conflict between Russia and Ukraine to lift the table and settle accounts with the United States.
The United States, on the other hand, was “like a treasure”, playing the cards of “controlling Russia with Ukraine” and “controlling Europe because of Russia” and launching extreme sanctions against Russia.
The United States thinks it has succeeded in “getting Russia into the situation” and “jumping into the pit”, which can isolate and attack Russia. However, the actions taken by the United States are seriously impacting global geopolitical stability and leading to a new round of energy crisis and food crisis, which has had a serious adverse impact on the world economy, financial stability and the people’s livelihood of all countries.
As a “sick giant”, the United States does not solve its own “disease”. Instead, it uses brute force and sabotage everywhere to pull the world into the water. Another important direction is China.
Less than a year and a half after Biden came to power, there are countless places where he has made “black hands and stumbling blocks” against China.
In addition to continuously interfering in China’s internal affairs on issues such as Taiwan, Hong Kong and Xinjiang, slandering and attacking China, the United States has also formed more and more “Tuan Tuan Gang” around China, from aukus to Quad, to strengthening the military alliance between the United States, Japan and the United States and South Korea, and to putting forward the so-called “Indian Pacific economic framework”. The Biden administration of the United States has never been idle on the road of containing China.
At present, the core strategy of the United States against China is converging on the issue of competing for the supply chain. Its purpose is similar to that of the trump administration. Through various overt and covert actions, the United States intimidates and entices the global industrial chain to withdraw from China, thus attacking the foundation of China’s economy.
The Biden administration is also very clear that the contest of comprehensive national strength between China and the United States is based on science and technology and economic strength. Attacking China’s economy means attacking China and competing for the final victory of the game between China and the United States.
Many people in China are worried about this.
Later, I will make an in-depth analysis on this issue. Here I can briefly say the conclusion: we can regard the current Sino US supply chain dispute as a new round of trade war against China launched by the Biden administration, or as version 2.0 of the U.S. trade war against China. However, like the trade war launched by the trump administration, the United States is still bound to lose.
The reason is very simple. The basic economic laws are at work behind the division and layout of the global industrial chain. Trump and Biden both want to destroy China’s dominant position in the global industrial chain through non market means. There are few tools and the effect is limited.
Especially under the background of the intensification of domestic contradictions and the rising anti globalization and anti free trade voices in the United States, it is impossible for the United States to offer real money to help other countries. The United States only wants other countries to cooperate with its national interests and join the United States in containing and attacking China.
Isn’t this “white wolf with empty hands”? In the final analysis, it is a kind of whimsical thing.
Therefore, in the face of various new terms and concepts created by Biden administration, the domestic people should maintain their attention tactically, but maintain their contempt strategically.
As long as China does its own thing in a down-to-earth manner, maintains sustained economic growth, maintains long-term social stability, and constantly promotes scientific and technological progress and industrial upgrading, China has nothing to worry about.
Let’s go back to the metaphor of “the United States is a sick giant”. Instead of curing its illness, the United States continues to fool around the world. The final result is that the United States may drag the world down in the process of the demise of its hegemony.
At this time, how can we restrain the “sick giant” of the United States?
There is no doubt that it is up to China to lead and unite all the emerging markets and developing countries in the world who hope for peace, cooperation, development and prosperity, firmly adhere to the theme of peace and development, and prevent the United States from bringing the world back to the old path of conflict and confrontation.
Through the “Shangri La dialogue” held in Singapore this time, we can see clearly that the United States, for its selfish purpose, wants to establish a “United Front” to contain, contain, suppress and slander China in the world. In fact, it goes against the trend of the times and is unpopular.
Indonesian defense minister Prabowo said that Asian countries that were once dominated, enslaved and exploited by big powers have now resolved their differences and challenges in their own ways and achieved nearly 50 years of peace, friendly cooperation and prosperity. Given that Asian countries are capable of achieving their own goals, Indonesia believes that China can shoulder its own responsibilities with kindness and wisdom.
He also said: “China is a great civilization. It has been a leader of Asia for thousands of years, and their influence has now spread throughout Southeast Asia. They are the vanguard of the anti imperialist movement and good friends of Indonesia. We urge all countries to respect the legitimate rise of China as a great civilized country.”
Some people who believe in the Biden administration of the United States may be anxious to “spit blood” after hearing Prabowo’s words.
Some people in the U.S. government want to destroy the relationship between China and ASEAN countries and want to form a broad Anti China Alliance, but in turn, they are “educated” by ASEAN countries such as Indonesia that the United States should learn to respect China’s “legitimate rise”.
This is really too ironic!
Because the United States is deeply anxious about the decline of its hegemony, and in order to maintain its hegemony, the United States containment, suppression, containment and slander China, the whole world sees it.
The Chinese people should see more and more clearly that the United States’ containment of China, in addition to the support of 20 or 30 “staunch allies” of the United States, the vast majority of countries in the world are not willing to choose sides in the competition between China and the United States provoked by the United States, nor are they willing to give up the mutually beneficial and win-win cooperation with China to “draw chestnuts from the fire” for the United States.
It is certain that in the future, more and more countries, like Indonesia, will stand on the right side of history in the competition between China and the United States.
China should lead and unite the vast emerging markets and developing countries to avoid dragging the world down when the “sick giant” of the United States falls. Russia is an indispensable force.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been going on for more than 110 days. The Chinese people can see more and more clearly that Russia has a very obvious “cover role” for China strategically by setting up a table with the United States to defend its own interests and national dignity.
It is absolutely impossible for China to allow the US plot to hang and destroy Russia to succeed, because people with a little common sense know very well who will be next if Russia collapses!
While the United States launched extreme sanctions against Russia, it continued to intimidate China, demanding that China should not support Russia. In fact, the practical cooperation between China and Russia has no relationship with the United States. The United States has no right to limit the scope of China Russia practical cooperation with brutal unilateral sanctions.
At this time, China needs to dare to fight with the United States and continue to promote practical cooperation with Russia in various fields. This seems to be helping Russia, but it is actually helping China itself.
More importantly, only when both China and Russia can withstand the brutal pressure of the United States, can China and Russia work together to lead and unite more emerging markets and developing countries, limit the destructive impulse of the “sick giant” and avoid greater harm to the world.