The United States is only one misjudgment away from recession!

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Author: vertical and horizontal source: Zhonghua city (id:hqsycn)

Through the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine and Russia, the West has shown fatigue.

First, Western aid to Ukraine is obviously not as strong as it was earlier;

Secondly, the remarks made by the Secretary General of NATO on June 12 also have other implications.

He said that NATO will continue to provide weapons to help Ukraine be in the strongest position in the negotiations with Russia, and the negotiations should end combat operations.

He also said that it is possible to achieve peace in Ukraine. The only question is what price Ukraine should pay and how much territory, freedom and democracy it is willing to pay for this peace.

These two paragraphs of Stoltenberg’s are quite meaningful. Although the first paragraph says that it will continue to provide weapons to Ukraine, it shows the meaning of unwillingness. It seems that the more real heart is emphasizing “the end of combat operations”.

The second paragraph is a combination of reality and falsehood. Democracy and freedom are all empty, and territory is real. It means that Ukraine exchanges ceded territory for peace.

Recently, there are still some “fatigue” messages from the West. Generally speaking, the west is no longer as motivated to play consumption with Russia as before.

There are three reasons for this phenomenon:

First, as I said earlier, when Russia only attacked Wudong, it sent a clear signal to the West that Russia had no intention of

Breakdown of Russian European isolation belt,

It has no intention of threatening Western Europe, so Western Europe has little interest in filling the bottomless hole of Ukraine. If Russia goes to the border with Poland, Western Europe will certainly lose with Russia at all costs. This is the reason why the author has always suggested that Russia only attack Wudong.

The second is that there are many difficulties in the West

Epidemic situation, inflation, energy crisis, supply chain obstruction, food, economic recession risk… All kinds of difficulties are perplexing the West.

Take the United States as an example. Now the inflation in the United States has exceeded 8% for three consecutive months, and the data in May reached 8.6%, which is a terrible data; The price of gasoline breaks through $5 per gallon, which translates into about 8.89 yuan / liter. This seems to be cheaper than China, but it is already very high for a country with low oil prices like the United States.

As for the “three highs” disease in the United States, the author explained many times earlier that the Fed does not raise interest rates and inflation does not stop; Raising interest rates is good for inflation but bad for the bond market and the stock market. Now the U.S. stock market has suffered heavy falls on June 10 and June 13, and the decline of the cursor general index since its high in January has wiped out the market value of about $7.4 trillion. In a word, high inflation, high debt and high foam are intertwined, which will aggravate the other and become a stubborn disease in the United States.

The United States also faces the risk of recession. According to a recent survey conducted by the financial times on the 13th, 70% of senior economists predict that the US economy will fall into recession in 2023, and 32% of economists believe that this event will occur in 2022.

? Biden video screenshot

Thirdly, as mentioned earlier, the mid-term elections in the United States will be held in November, and the heating in Europe will also begin in November. Biden must tell the voters before that with a winner’s gesture. Europe also needs to solve the energy problem before this time.

In view of the above three reasons, the West has gradually shown a “negative” state in its confrontation and consumption with Russia.

Of course, Russia is not alone in its confrontation with the West. The author has always had a point of view that the confrontation between Russia and the west is not limited to Russia and the West. From a young age, it is a confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, a confrontation between Russia and the west, and from a big perspective, a struggle between the vast third world and the old Western forces. The reason is very simple. Opec+ and other countries are reluctant to increase production. Other developing countries have made great efforts to buy Russian energy, which indirectly supports Russia and enables Russia to make great strides under the high oil price and high energy income. If opec+ increases its output by a large amount, making energy the price of cabbage, and other countries buy less or do not buy Russian energy, Russia, which lacks a steady stream of energy income, can it last for a few days?

As I said before, if this duel ends with Russia’s victory, it will greatly inspire the third world. Of course, it also gives a big blow to some guys who dream of fighting big with small ones, such as across the Strait.

In the spring and Autumn period and the Warring States period, the overlord state Wei bid farewell to his position of overlord because of miscalculation in Maling, and never recovered; In 1588, Spain lost count in Britain and fell to the altar; After the first World War, Britain lost half of its territory. After the Second World War, it completely gave up its hegemony. Since then, the Empire has been declining all the way. Now it can only stay behind the United States.

Perhaps now the United States is only one miscalculation away from decline, falls into a wrong war, and never recovers!

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