Author: pengshengyu
On May 23, 2022, US President Biden announced the launch of the “Indo Pacific economic framework” (IPEF) in Tokyo, Japan, which was joined by 13 countries including Japan, South Korea and Australia. The White House issued a document saying that the framework will revitalize the leadership of the United States in the “Indo Pacific region” and provide countries in the region with “different choices from China” on important issues. According to its official statement, the “Indo Pacific economic framework” will focus on the four “pillars” of trade, supply chain, environmental protection and infrastructure, and tax and anti-corruption. Among them, ensuring the acquisition of semiconductors and related technologies is the top priority of the “pillar” of the supply chain.
Tsai ing Wen has repeatedly said that she should actively strive to participate in the framework. However, the United States has not yet invited Taiwan to join. In order to promote the framework, the United States has held discussions with Japan, South Korea, Australia, Singapore and other allies since the end of last year. However, it has always been vague about Taiwan. When asked whether to invite Taiwan to participate in the Senate hearing, US trade representative Dai Qi only said that it had not been decided and was still under discussion. Reuters also reported that US Commerce Secretary ramondo said at a meeting of the Senate that Taiwan would not be considered to participate in the plan at present, shattering the illusion of the Tsai authorities. US President Biden announced that he would be included in the list of countries and regions under the “Indo Pacific economic framework”, but Taiwan was not included in the list. According to Sullivan, the “Indo Pacific economic framework” aims to enable the United States to cooperate more closely with major Asian economies on issues such as supply chain, digital trade and clean energy. Biden will announce the launch of the “Indo Pacific economic framework” when meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. However, the national security adviser clearly pointed out that Taiwan was not invited to participate in the launching ceremony and would not be included in the “Indo Pacific economic framework”.
The United States has invited Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, China to propose the establishment of a “chip Quartet” in the hope of blocking Chinese Mainland in the semiconductor field. However, the Taiwan authorities were not happy for long. A source disclosed that the US and Japan strengthen cooperation not only to prevent semiconductor technology from flowing into Chinese Mainland, but also to get rid of their dependence on Taiwan chips.
The author believes that the United States is preparing for the reunification of Taiwan by China. At present, the United States is keeping a hand in everything involving Taiwan, so as to prevent Taiwan from becoming stronger. On the contrary, it has become a fattening Taiwan for China a few years later (Taiwan has been reunified and directly become a territory controlled by China). Therefore, in terms of economy, industry and technology, the United States is now keeping an eye on places that may make Taiwan stronger and areas that may deepen its dependence on Taiwan.
The United States is worried that Taiwan will be reunified by China and that China will control Taiwan’s chip manufacturing industry. It is also seeking to transfer Taiwan’s chip manufacturing capacity to the United States. This action of seeking to transfer Taiwan’s chip manufacturing capacity to the United States can fully show that the United States is abandoning Taiwan. The United States is now thinking about transferring Taiwan’s chip manufacturing capacity, which shows that the United States has no intention of preventing China from recovering Taiwan by large-scale force, because the United States knows that it can’t stop it at any cost.
As we all know, the United States is asking TSMC to build factories in the United States. TSMC is building a new plant in Arizona, the United States, which will be put into mass production by the 5-nanometer process in 2024. The initial monthly production capacity is 20000 pieces, and the total monthly production is expected to reach more than 100000 pieces. It is expected that TSMC will become a non American semiconductor plant with the largest production capacity and the most advanced technology in the United States, surpassing competitors such as Samsung in South Korea. Yang Ruilin, director of the Research Institute of Taiwan’s engineering department, pointed out that although TSMC has built factories in the United States, it has the most advanced technology and will remain in Taiwan. TSMC has already produced 5nm wafers and plans to increase production capacity to meet the growing demand of customers. By 2024, TSMC’s 5-nanometer process capacity will reach 160000 pieces per month. In addition, according to the latest report, TSMC is expected to start producing 3nm wafers in the second half of this year, when it will be able to process 30000 wafers produced with more advanced technology. Due to Apple’s order commitment, TSMC plans to expand its 3-nanometer process capacity to 55000 a month in 2022 and further expand its production to 105000 in 2023.
On March 2, 2021, the website of the Financial Times published a report entitled “the Committee warns that the United States may lose its chip advantage”. According to the report, a committee authorized by the U.S. Congress concluded that the United States may lose its advantage in this field due to its dependence on chip manufacturers in Taiwan, China, which is crucial to commercial and military success.
After two years of research, the national Artificial Intelligence Security Commission said that the United States needs to establish a “resilient domestic base” for designing and manufacturing chips.
It is reported that Eric Schmidt, chairman of the Committee and former CEO of Google, said: “due to our dependence on Taiwan (chip), we are very close to losing the cutting-edge advantage of microelectronics technology that drives our company and army.”
Bob walker, former deputy secretary of the US Department of defense and co chairman of the committee, said: “if Chinese Mainland recovers the Taiwan Region… It is really a competitive issue for us, from two generations ahead to two generations behind.
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The above information fully shows that the United States is worried that Taiwan will be reunified by China and that China will control Taiwan’s chip manufacturing industry. It has sought to transfer Taiwan’s chip manufacturing capacity to the United States.
The author believes that this action of seeking to transfer Taiwan’s chip manufacturing capacity to the United States can fully show that the United States is abandoning Taiwan.
The United States now wants to transfer Taiwan’s chip manufacturing capacity, which shows that the United States does not intend to use large-scale force to prevent China from recovering Taiwan.
With regard to Taiwan’s reunification, we should not just think about the value of national reunification. There is also a deeper value: if China succeeds in recovering Taiwan, it is very likely that China will directly surpass the United States to become the world’s largest power. There is no such thing as a Chinese cock in the world. The United States is also very likely to give up suppression and containment and choose cooperation for interests. Therefore, the significance of Taiwan’s recovery is not only the reunification of the motherland, but also a landmark historical turning event for China’s national rejuvenation to become the world’s largest country.
According to Reuters, on March 1, 2021, the national artificial intelligence security committee, an independent committee of the U.S. government, voted to pass a 700 page so-called “report”, in which it recommended that Congress “tighten the bottleneck” for China’s chip manufacturing technology to prevent China from surpassing the United States in the semiconductor field in the future. According to the report, the Committee recommended that Congress restrict China’s purchase of equipment needed to manufacture advanced computing chips, which are used in face recognition and other monitoring technologies. The report mentioned that many chip manufacturing equipment came from American companies, such as applied materials and Fanlin group, which have been subject to export controls in the United States. However, these key equipment can also be obtained from Nikon of Japan and asmai holding of the Netherlands. In the report, nscai suggested that the United States should work with these countries to formulate a policy on the export licensing of chip manufacturing equipment to China.
The report also claims to make China’s semiconductor industry lag behind the United States by “two generations”. It is reported that in addition to proposing to protect the US chip manufacturing technology, the report also proposes to develop the us own chip manufacturing industry, which has migrated to Taiwan, China and South Korea in the past decades. For example, the report proposes to give a 40% tax-free quota for investment in the semiconductor industry to stimulate the construction of chip factories in the United States. At present, the Committee has submitted its report to the US Congress.
In fact, the United States’ own chip manufacturing capacity is not good. It is transferring the global chip manufacturing capacity to the United States. After the transfer, the manufacturing capacity of other regions in the world may be hit. The core is to master the global high-end chip manufacturing, and use this to block China. In addition, it is also a worry that Taiwan may soon be recovered by China, because once Taiwan is reunified, the chip manufacturing of the United States will be blocked by us, so they should quickly transfer their manufacturing capacity before Taiwan is recovered. China should actually try to prevent Taiwan from transferring its chip manufacturing capacity to the United States.
Taiwan’s chip manufacturing capacity is essentially Chinese and cannot be taken away by the United States before it is recovered.
The United States may tighten technology to prevent China from dominating the semiconductor field. On March 1, a US National Security Committee proposed to the US Congress to tighten the “blocking point” of chip manufacturing technology to prevent China from surpassing the US in the semiconductor field in the next few years.
According to Reuters, the US National Artificial Intelligence Security Council has proposed to suppress China’s ability to purchase manufacturing equipment needed to produce advanced computer chips. These chips can be used in surveillance technologies such as face recognition.
It is reported that many chip manufacturing equipment come from American companies, such as applied materials and Fanlin group, and these companies have been subject to U.S. export controls. Japanese enterprises Nikon and canon, as well as Dutch enterprises asmel key appliances.
The report suggests that the United States should coordinate with these countries to formulate a “constructive refusal” policy for the export license of advanced chip manufacturing tools to China in each country, and put forward measures to promote the manufacturing of semiconductors in the United States.
Commission officials said that the primary “protection” strategy of the United States is to “run faster” than China’s chip industry.
Against the backdrop of global chip capacity constraints, Tianyulong, spokesman of the Ministry of industry and information technology of China, mentioned that the chip industry is a global industrial chain, which needs to strengthen cooperation globally to jointly build the chip industry chain and make it more healthy and sustainable.
Finally, it should be emphasized that TSMC itself is not so important, but China does not have the industrial capacity of TSMC, and the loss will be the cost of several wars to recover Taiwan. If the United States already thinks that China may close Taiwan in a few years, it will certainly consider transferring the chip manufacturing capacity that the United States does not have from Taiwan to the United States, and depriving Taiwan of chip manufacturing capacity before closing Taiwan. This fool will do so. If the United States does not have this manufacturing capacity, the tension between China and the United States will certainly continue for a period of time after we recover Taiwan. Several major chip companies in the United States can no longer rely on Taiwan after China’s reunification to provide chip processing and manufacturing. Americans have this great concern. Bob walker, former deputy secretary of defense and co chairman of the committee, is extremely realistic.
On March 3, 2021, the White House issued the “interim” national security strategy guide. The White House stressed that the Biden administration regards diplomacy as the first tool to solve national security problems, and democracy is its biggest capital. “The United States should not and will not be involved in a ‘permanent war’ that has caused thousands of deaths and trillions of dollars in losses,” the document said.
If the United States intervenes with large-scale force to recover Taiwan from China, the United States will not only accept thousands of deaths and trillions of war losses. The United States is deeply aware that it can not stop China from recovering Taiwan. Military obstruction is not only a matter of its own loss, but also because it knows our determination. It can not stop the loss. After all, it is our doorstep.
Economist chenwenling recently mentioned that the Chinese government must make a short-term response, but also make a long-term strategic preparation for the United States to contain and suppress China. Especially when the United States and the West impose destructive sanctions on China like Russia, “China must recover Taiwan, especially in the reconstruction of the industrial chain and supply chain, and must seize TSMC, which was originally a Chinese enterprise, into China’s hands.”. Chenwenling said that at present, TSMC is speeding up its transfer to the United States and wants to establish six factories in the United States. “We must not let all its transfer goals be realized.”.
In my personal opinion, if China wants to seize the hand of TSMC, it must achieve reunification before TSMC is successfully transferred by the United States. Otherwise, it will be difficult to seize the hand. In this article, I appeal to all Chinese compatriots of TSMC from top to bottom to resist the pressure of the United States and the Taiwan authorities leading Taiwan independence, try to procrastinate, do not transfer too quickly, and make every Chinese effort of TSMC for China’s reunification of Taiwan and retention of TSMC.
All kinds of trillion level industries need such a small chip. Then let’s look at the war costs. The costs of several wars fought by the United States are as follows: the Korean War is $304billion, the Vietnam War is $738billion, and the war on terrorism is $1.6 trillion. By comparing various data, I believe every reader can clearly see that the cost of a war, and the total market value and total scale of the chip industry’s independent R & D investment, construction, purchase, and the mobile phone, 5g and other large industries driven by it are difficult to compare.
If our chip industry gets stuck and our industries cannot develop rapidly in five or even ten years, our losses will far exceed the costs of several wars. We can see that early reunification will easily save the cost of several wars.
At a hearing, U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo warned that in the semiconductor manufacturing chain, the country is heavily dependent on manufacturers from China. Due to the lack of semiconductor production capacity, the United States is facing “national security risks and economic security risks”. The report mentioned that although the United States still leads the world in chip design, manufacturing still needs to be carried out by overseas enterprises to a large extent. According to the data disclosed by the American Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) last year, 75% of the global chip manufacturing capacity has been transferred to East Asia. In contrast, the U.S. share of the global semiconductor manufacturing industry has dropped from 37% in 1990 to 12%. At the same time, 88% of the semiconductor chips used in American industry are produced outside the country.
The United States is very clear that if Taiwan is reunified, China will in turn completely block the chip industry in the United States. At present, the chips in the United States basically rely on foreign OEM. Therefore, the United States is urgently transferring the overseas chip manufacturing industry and explicitly requires TSMC and others to build factories in the United States. Therefore, if China can be unified before the successful transfer of the United States, the American chip industry will be effectively blocked, and the American industry will suffer much greater stagnation and losses than China. Which American high-tech industry does not need such a small chip.
Therefore, if China withdraws Taiwan in advance, and only then carries on the comprehensive chip blockade to the United States, the price of the United States will be at least the cost of several Chinese wars to recover Taiwan.
On the chip, we are saving the cost of several wars, and the other party may pay a price far exceeding the cost of several wars. I believe everyone can see this account clearly. So is this the embargo on the United States after we close down Taiwan? Definitely. After the end of Taiwan, it is us that completely block and sanction the United States on the chip, rather than the United States taking Taiwan to sanction US
Therefore, if Taiwan is integrated into China because of China’s early reunification, the size and strength of the economy, science and technology and other aspects will be directly improved to a large level. This is the unified “1+1” change we want to see.
The judgment of this article is repeated again: the United States is worried that Taiwan will be reunified by China and that China will control Taiwan’s chip manufacturing industry. It is already seeking to transfer Taiwan’s chip manufacturing capacity to the United States. This action of seeking to transfer Taiwan’s chip manufacturing capacity to the United States can fully show that the United States is abandoning Taiwan. The United States is now thinking about transferring Taiwan’s chip manufacturing capacity, which shows that the United States has no intention of large-scale force to prevent China from recovering Taiwan.
The United States knows that no amount of cost can stop it. Therefore, the United States is preparing for the reunification of Taiwan by China.
The United States wants to get rid of all its dependence on Taiwan as soon as possible. The United States is worried about feeding Taiwan to China.