Author: top ten sources: flower planting city (ID: hqsycn)
There are 2 messages recently,
1. According to lieutenant general Jon hill, director of the US missile defense administration, recently revealed that the United States is upgrading Guam’s missile defense system to deal with China’s ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, hypersonic weapons and space threats.
2. Japan is considering deploying more than 1000 long-range cruise missiles with a range of more than 1000 kilometers in the southwest islands and Kyushu islands to cover the coastal areas of North Korea and China.
You should know both of these messages. What signal does it send?
General military experts believe that this is because the United States and Japan are “playing psychological warfare” and “expressing their determination to the Chinese side”.
The author does not deny these views, but he also has his own view, that is, the United States is conducting strategic retreat.
With the growth of China’s strength, the advantages of the United States in the first island chain are no longer there, and it can no longer be prevented.
On the other hand, Vietnam is neutral, the Philippines is neutral, and countries such as Singapore are all in the middle of the swing. At present, Taiwan and Japan are relatively reliable, and the ROK is also OK. However, due to the direct pressure from the North Korea, it dare not take too much action. Therefore, to a large extent, the first island chain has been riddled with holes and has been “broken” to a certain extent.
According to the current signs, the United States is strengthening the armed forces of the “puppets” of the first island chain, such as Taiwan and Japan, while it is focusing its forces on the second island chain, and Guam is its top priority. The above two pieces of information reflect this phenomenon.
The above two points directly reflect the retreat of the United States. It is self-evident that the United States will withdraw its forces to the second island chain. Strengthening the armed forces of the first island chain to “replace the dead” is also a backhand left by the United States for retreat. In turn, it also reflects the retreat of the United States.
? Guam image source: Google Earth
I remember that Chang’e-1 was not directly abandoned after it completed its mission and lost its functions. Instead, it chose to crash into the moon to obtain the final scientific research data and realize its final value.
The author speculated that since the United States already knew that the first island chain could not be defended, it simply withdrew its power to the second island chain. However, we should not go in vain. We should also strengthen the armed forces of some ghost substitutes in the first island chain. It would be better if they could become the “Chang’e-1” of the United States; If Taiwan is eventually removed, Japan will be allowed to take over the functions of Taiwan and continue to act as the cannon fodder of the United States, so as to block China’s eastward expansion and rise at various levels. While it sits at the second island chain node such as Guam and kills others, it stands aloof from them and is not hurt, just like the current use of Ukraine to kill Russia.
The author always believes that the United States will intervene in the Taiwan Strait but will not personally participate in the war. That is, the United States will intervene by providing intelligence, information, weapons and other means, but will not launch a war with China for the sake of a piece of chess. At least, hegemony will collapse, and at worst, it will be doomed. What it wants is to use the chessmen to kill others without being hurt, instead of being used by others and falling into disaster.
Therefore, these performances of the United States and Japan do not rule out the implication of psychological warfare and determination, but they also show the “strategic retreat” of the United States.
In order to break these actions of the United States, the underlying logic is only two words: strength.
At present, the situation in the Asia Pacific region is rather chaotic. The main reason is the presence of US forces, which are constantly stirring up trouble and stirring up trouble in the Asia Pacific region. Only when China’s strength becomes stronger and stronger, and the US forces are expelled and China’s power covers East Asia and even the entire Asia Pacific region, will Taiwan and Japan, which are covered by China’s (mainland’s) power, truly move towards a calm.
However, this process is doomed to be difficult. The United States will not be “pushed out” willingly. It not only needs China’s continuous development and strength, but also needs to constantly fight with the United States before it can finally be realized.
In any case, the United States has strengthened the arming of the cannon fodder and puppets of the first island chain, but it has deployed its forces to the second island chain. On the one hand, it reflects the retreat of the United States, and on the other hand, it also reflects the growth of China’s strength. It “pushed” the United States back a step, which is China’s initial victory. I believe that the future picture will certainly be realized.