Original: Tianya mending knife source: wechat official account: Tianya current affairs has been authorized to reprint
On June 4, Russia announced the objectives of the third phase of military operations.
According to the website of Russia’s “Izvestia”, a committee under the Russian Ministry of Defense said on the same day that the objectives of the third phase of the Russian military special military operation against Ukraine include the control of Nikolayev, Odessa and Kharkov states.
So far, the Russian army has completed two stages of military operation objectives:
The first stage: greatly weakening the war potential of the Ukrainian army;
The Russian Ukrainian war began on February 24 and ended on March 25, exactly one month. At this stage, Russia’s main objectives are to eliminate the Ukrainian air force and air defense forces, the Ukrainian Navy and bomb key targets, including the military command system, ammunition depots and warehouses throughout the Ukrainian territory, greatly reducing the Ukrainian army’s war potential.
The second stage: opening the land passage in southern Ukraine;
On April 22, the Russian army announced the objective of the second phase of military action: to achieve complete control over southern Ukraine and open up the land channel connecting Crimea. The top priority is to eliminate the enemy forces near Donbas and between Donbas and Kherson.
At this stage, the focus is to take Mariupol, the gathering place of una. After taking Mariupol, the southern region of Ukraine will be connected with Crimea, and various military materials in Russia can be continuously transported into Ukraine to join the Crimea team in the south.
The war between Russia and Ukraine has been going on for more than three months. How about casualties on both sides?
Generally speaking, I think the data released by Ukraine is too bullshit. Moreover, on the battlefield, the Ukrainian military can not grasp the trend of the battlefield, so I think the data released by the Russian army is more reliable.
Let’s first look at the casualties of the Russian “allies”.
The so-called “allied forces” refer to the militia forces in the Donbas region, including the armed forces of the Republic of Donetsk and the armed forces of the Republic of Lugansk. These militias have been fighting with the Ukrainian army since the two republics declared independence in 2014.
On May 19, the Republic of Donetsk released the latest casualty data: from January 1 to May 19, 2022, the armed forces of the Republic of Donetsk killed 1821 people and 580 civilians.
I think this data is reliable, because since 2014, the official of the Republic of Donetsk has announced the number of casualties once a week, and the data has very good continuity.
As for the Republic of Lugansk, no relevant data can be found. However, there should be fewer deaths than Donetsk, because Donetsk has always been the focus of the war.
As for the casualties of the Russian army, it is also more reliable, because every time the Russian army loses one person in battle, an obituary should be issued to inform their relatives and friends.
On May 30, the BBC Russia branch released a long survey report, which made detailed statistics on the obituaries and funerals of Russian military officers and soldiers in Russia since the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian war.
As of May 29, 3052 obituaries have been confirmed, including the Russian army, the Russian National Guard, military volunteers and some Kadyrov people.
Among the 3052 Russian troops killed in action, 18% were officers, including 3 generals, 16 colonels, 46 lieutenant colonel, 87 major, 405 lieutenants and 2495 soldiers.
Of course, the data published in the obituary must be less than the actual data, because there may be some “missing” persons in the course of the war. These missing persons are either captured yet undetermined, or killed in battle but their remains have not been found… However, I don’t think this number will be too large, because Russia is the offensive side, the strong side, and takes the initiative in the battlefield.
According to the latest news: Andre kartapolov, chairman of the National Defense Committee of the Russian State Duma (lower house of parliament), said on June 1 that after the Russian army changed tactics in Ukraine, it almost no longer suffered from the loss of soldiers.
I think this statement is also quite reliable, because I have seen a lot of war videos. Now the strategy of the Russian army is: bombing, hard bombing, until the Ukrainian army is seriously injured and even dare not come out. Then the Russian army moves forward carefully step by step, encircling and annihilating one by one with its absolute superiority!
In order to reduce their own losses, the Russian army “bombed” everywhere like money, and the whole land was full of craters.
Of course, due to the rising oil price, the Russian army is not poor in money, and ordinary artillery shells are not so valuable, so the Russian army has that strength.
In addition, during the war, the Russian army also seized a large number of weapons and shells, especially several large ammunition depots of the Ukrainian army. Those weapons and ammunition were old, so the Russian army “bombed” out.
In this way, the death data of the Russian army and its allies will probably come out: the death of the Russian army is calculated at 4000; Donetsk armed forces 2000; Lugansk’s armed forces must be less than Donetsk’s, calculated at 1500. The total number is 7500, which is calculated as 8000.
What about the number of Ukrainian troops killed?
At present, the Russian army has not released detailed data on the deaths of Ukrainian troops.
Of course, it must be difficult for the Russian army to know the specific casualty data of the Ukrainian army, because many Ukrainian army bombed and could not find their bodies, or many bodies were buried in the ruins and not found – a few days ago, the Ukrainian army found the bodies of more than 40 people under the ruins.
However, on June 2, Russian military experts said that the actual number of casualties of the Ukrainian army was 30000-35000, and 100000 people were injured. In Mariupol alone, 20000 to 25000 Ukrainian troops were destroyed, of which about 4000 surrendered.
It can be said that three months after the start of the war, the Russian army gradually moved from chaos to order, slowly explored its own tactics, and gradually controlled the rhythm of the battlefield!
According to the Russian side, now the Russian army has almost no more losses, while Zelinski said in the news: “the battlefield situation is very difficult. We lose 60 to 100 soldiers every day and more than 500 people are injured. We are hard at the forefront of defense. The most difficult war happened in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions in the East and south of Ukraine.”
This is the overall situation on the Russian Ukrainian battlefield. The Russian army absolutely controls the battlefield situation.
So what is the ultimate goal of the Russian army?
Recover all the land allocated to Ukraine by Lenin, Stalin and Khrushchev!
In order to make it easier for us to understand, we will put aside the figures we have missed many times before: Crimea was allocated to Ukraine by Khrushchev in 1954, and was recovered by Russia in 2014; The eastern and southern parts of Ukraine were given to Ukraine by Lenin in 1922. At present, the Russian army basically controls Lugansk, Donetsk, zabarore and Kherson oblast. In the third stage, the targets are Kharkov, Nikolayev and Odessa.
In other words, if the Russian army completes the third stage of military tasks, Russia will recover all the land that Lenin “sent out”.
Therefore, we also
It can be predicted that the fourth military task of the Russian army is to recover the land sent out by Stalin.
Now I can basically say with certainty: once Russia controls these States, it is impossible to give them to Ukraine.
Why?
Because Russia can legally occupy these States, because these states were originally Russian territory, but in the Soviet era, administrative regions were adjusted for the convenience of management.
To facilitate your understanding, let’s first ask you a few questions:
First question: if we launch an attack on the Indian army in order to recover southern Tibet, is it an invasion?
That certainly doesn’t count, because South Tibet is ours. We can’t get it back through peaceful negotiation. We have no choice but to take it back by force. The whole world has nothing to say.
Second question: I promised to give you a piece of territory, but now I have taken it back. Is this an invasion?
In the past, we had a good relationship. I gave you a piece of land, but now our relationship is bad. I asked you to return to that territory. If you don’t give it, I will take it back by force. Is this an aggressive war?
Two days ago, we analyzed whether the Russian Ukrainian war was an unjust war of aggression in the article “supporting Russia does not mean being a” Russian fan “- from the legal point of view, the war launched by Russia was not a war of aggression.
If you haven’t seen it, you can go and see it again.
After writing that article, some people followed me and scolded me.
What are their reasons for scolding me?
Their reason is: after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, when the CIS was just established, Russia issued a statement on the border issue with the CIS countries,
Russia has no territorial claims to any neighboring country, and does not accept the territorial claims of any neighboring country to Russia, let alone unilaterally change its national boundaries.
Why did Russia make such a statement?
The answer is very simple: during the Soviet period, a large number of Administrative Region adjustments were carried out. Not only did Russia adjust some of its own land to other nationalities, but also a large number of other nationalities’ land was adjusted to Russia. If, at the time of the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia wanted to return the territories that had been adjusted to other countries, then other countries would also want Russia to return the lands that had been adjusted to Russia, and the whole of Russia would be in chaos.
That is to say, during the Soviet period, in order to facilitate management, the Soviet Union allocated a lot of Russian land to other countries, but many countries’ land was also allocated to Russia. Some people make money, others lose money.
There is no doubt that Ukraine is the country that made money.
However, we should remember that the border between Russia and Ukraine is not divided according to international law.
There are many countries around Russia, forming three types of borders:
The first category is the national boundaries that coincide with the borders of the former Soviet Union, including the land boundary sections determined by international treaties, that is, Russia and Norway, Finland, Poland, China, Mongolia and North Korea, as well as the maritime boundary sections not demarcated in corresponding ways, that is, the water boundary between Russia and Japan and the United States;
The second category is the border with the independent former Soviet republics, that is, the border between Russia and the three Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania);
The third category is the borders between Russia and some CIS countries, that is, the borders between Russia and Belarus, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Kazakhstan, which have not been defined in accordance with international law.
We must pay attention to the third point.
To facilitate your understanding, let’s continue to give an example.
In the past, China and Russia also had territorial contradictions. Finally, the two sides signed the Sino Russian Treaty of good neighborliness, friendship and cooperation on july16,2001 through consultation, which completely solved the border problem left over by history.
This approach is in line with international law: there is a territorial dispute. The two sides resolve the contradiction through consultation and sign an agreement recognized by both governments.
However, let us remember that Russia has not signed a formal agreement with Ukraine. It is just a “statement”.
Does the declaration have legal effect?
Do you still remember the eastward expansion of NATO?
Khrushchev: before the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States promised me that NATO would never expand eastward.
American squint: I didn’t say that.
Putin: NATO has indeed promised Russia never to expand eastward.
The United States is looking sideways again: I didn’t say that.
At this time, a German media took out a small notebook from its pocket and said: the United States did say that when the meeting was held, there were minutes of the meeting as evidence.
On February 19, 2022, Der Spiegel reported that the British National Archives had found a confidential document of 1991, recording that on March 6, 1991, the foreign ministers of the United States, Britain, France and Germany held a meeting in Bonn, Germany, to discuss and promise the Soviet Union that NATO would not continue to expand eastward from eastern Germany. According to the documents, the parties have reached a consensus that the accession of Eastern European countries to NATO is unacceptable; The representative of West Germany also made it clear that Poland and other countries would not join NATO.
The United States again looks askance: really? Maybe I said too much and forgot. However, what has been said is not an agreement. In 2020, China was the first to have an epidemic. I was a little drunk when I was happy. What about the US $100million epidemic assistance promised to China? But I haven’t given a dime.
China looked at the United States with disdain: as far as your stupid thing is concerned, I have seen through you for a long time. I have never taken your words seriously. Your words are like farting.
The United States agreed: Yes, yes! How can you take what you said seriously? I have said a lot and made a lot of promises. Every time the presidential election, we have made countless promises to the people. How many of them have been implemented? Don’t talk about what you don’t have. What about the agreement? I’ll admit it when you come up with the agreement.
Therefore, we must remember that a promise has no legal effect, and only an agreement has legal effect.
Now you understand.
From a legal point of view, it is not against international law for Russia to take back the territories assigned to Ukraine by Lenin, Stalin and Khrushchev, because Russia has never signed a border agreement with Ukraine that conforms to international law. Those places were just adjusted to Ukraine by the internal administrative regions of the Soviet Union. As long as you have the ability, Russia has every reason to take them back.
It is already clear that it is inevitable for the Donbas region to join Russia, and the newly occupied Kherson oblast has declared that it will join Russia; In addition, Russia has also issued Russian passports to the residents of Kherson and zaporoze states.
On May 25, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on simplifying the procedures for residents of zaporoze and Kherson oblasts in Ukraine to obtain Russian citizenship, which has entered into force on the same day.
Kirill stremousov, vice chairman of the military and civil government of Kherson Oblast, said: “after the simplification of relevant procedures, we can clearly see that Russia will always exist in Kherson oblast.”
Therefore, there is no doubt that Russia will certainly recover all the territories divided to Ukraine in the Soviet era.
What about the rest of Ukraine?
I don’t think Russia will occupy the whole Ukraine!
Why?
Because the remaining territory of Ukraine is the territory before the establishment of the Soviet Union – after the October Revolution, Lenin agreed that the nations that originally belonged to the Russian Empire had independent power, and Ukraine was indeed independent at that time, so those lands belong to Ukraine from the legal point of view – if Russia occupied those territories, they really belong to the war of aggression from the legal point of view.
Once the United Nations has determined the nature of Russia’s war, Russia may really be isolated from the world – let’s think about North Korea. Although China and Russia “shield” it, it can not block the sanctions of the international community (on June 12, 2009, the United Nations Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 1874 imposing sanctions on North Korea for its nuclear test).
Of course, as Russia is one of the five permanent members of the United Nations and has the “one vote veto”, even if it is recognized as a war of aggression by the United Nations, the United Nations cannot issue sanctions resolutions – just think that the United States has not been sanctioned by the United Nations even though it has launched so many wars of aggression.
Although Russia is not afraid of being recognized as an aggressive war, I don’t think Russia will occupy the whole territory of Ukraine, because Russia is not the United States after all. It is not as powerful as the United States, so there is no need to take this risk.
In addition, the proportion of Ukrainians in western Ukraine is very high. Even if Russia takes it back, the cost of governance is too huge. Russia’s national strength is difficult to bear, and it is easy to bring itself down in the end – think about the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq fought by the United States. It is easy to fight down, and governance is far more difficult than fighting down.
Will Ukraine agree to Russia taking back so much land?
Certainly not! Whoever dares to sign this agreement will leave a permanent reputation in the history of Ukraine!
Russia is bound to take back those lands, and Ukraine is bound not to give up those lands. What should we do?
Yes, Russia will fight until the Ukrainians can’t stand it and until Ukraine and Russia sign a border agreement in accordance with international law.
Can Russia legally take back those lands?
Yes!
Ukraine is a great plain. There is no family in many places for hundreds of miles. As long as Russia occupies it, a huge buffer zone can be established. In that buffer zone, everything is transparent. Under the control of the strong Russian air force, Ukraine has no possibility of “counter offensive”.
What will be the final result?
In fact, there are not many new things under the sun. There are many similar examples in history.
Do you know how long the Sino Vietnamese self-defense counterattack war lasted?
Many people have the impression that the war lasted only one month, but in fact it lasted 10 years – a self-defense counterattack against Vietnam, which in a narrow sense refers to the war between China and Vietnam on the Sino Vietnamese border from February 17 to March 16, 1979. In a broad sense, it refers to the Sino Vietnamese border military conflict in the past decade from 1979 to 1989.
Why do we all remember that it is a month, not ten years?
Because the war in the next ten years has almost no impact on China!
China’s comprehensive national strength is stronger than Vietnam, so we sent troops to attack Vietnam in turn. What the domestic people should do has little impact on us. However, it is different for Vietnam. The war is in Vietnam. Vietnam must always put a lot of energy into the war, otherwise it may have inestimable consequences – in this way, Vietnam has been consumed by China for 10 years and cannot develop its economy.
China cut a wound in Vietnam that never stopped bleeding, and Vietnam had to “change its course” in the end.
Is the current Russian Ukrainian war very similar to this?
While Russia was fighting Ukraine, its domestic economy continued to develop without much impact. It even conducted military exercises with China. However, Ukraine can do almost nothing except war.
With more and more areas occupied by the Russian army and more and more stable control areas, the final impact on Russia will be very small, but Ukraine will continue to be “bled”.
The cost of destruction is always smaller than that of construction – if you build a building worth 100million yuan, I can destroy it as long as 100000 yuan – in the end, not only Ukraine, but the whole west may be “bled” to death!
Therefore, the ultimate goal of Russia has been completely clear: Russia should take back all the territory given to Ukraine in the Soviet era, and then by constantly bombing the important facilities in the remaining territory of Ukraine (if Ukraine dares to bomb Russia, then the Russian army will “behead” the Ukrainian leadership), it will eventually force Ukraine to sign a formal border agreement with Russia.
This war may take 10 years, or even longer. Russia will continue to bleed Ukraine, even the whole Europe!