Author: Xusheng source: Xusheng (official account id:lxlong20) has been reproduced with authorization
The war between Russia and Ukraine is exhausting the world.
In fact, the final result of the war is to make all parties tired.
Only when you are completely exhausted, will you change; Either the war ends or the war expands.
At this stage of the Russian Ukrainian war, not only Russia and Ukraine are tired, but the West behind Ukraine is also tired, and even the entire global village public opinion is tired.
On June 30, there was a small change in the battlefield, and the Russian Defense Ministry announced that from
Withdrawal of troops from Snake Island
A stone stirred up thousands of waves, and the wrangling war between the parties began.
01 wrangling war
The reason given by Russia: withdrawal in good faith.
For Russia, many gourd eaters said they were a little confused. Withdrawal is withdrawal. Where is the difference between goodwill and malice?
The explanation given by Russia is: This shows that Russia will not hinder the United Nations from establishing a channel to transport agricultural products out of Ukraine; The Ukrainian government will not be able to use the food crisis to hype.
By implication, Russia was annoyed by Ukraine’s way of hyping the food crisis, and simply let Snake Island out. So this is a well intentioned evacuation.
The explanation given by Ukraine: the withdrawal of the Russian army was the result of the Ukrainian army’s military attack on Snake Island, and the Russian army withdrew because it could not bear the firepower of the Ukrainian army.
Valeri zaluzini, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, said that the “occupiers” withdrew after “unable to resist our artillery, missiles and air strikes”. He also thanked the Ukrainian army from Odessa for “taking the greatest measures to liberate a strategically important part of our territory”.
Zelensky also said that this was the beginning of the Ukrainian army’s counter offensive.
The message from Ukraine is very clear that the Ukrainian army drove the Russian army away from Snake Island.
Of course, the Ukrainian war is not just a war between Russia and Ukraine, but a game between Russia and the whole west. When the Russian troops withdraw from Snake Island, the West will not miss the opportunity of hype.
At the NATO summit in Madrid, British Prime Minister Johnson, who advocated being tough on Russia, said, “if you want evidence to prove that the Ukrainians overcome the adverse trend and repel Russia’s amazing counterattack ability, take a look at Snake Island, and Russia has to let out again.”
It is obvious that Johnson is using Russian troops to withdraw from Snake Island, exaggerating that the West should vigorously support Ukraine.
So far, the wrangling war between all parties is still in progress, and the heat is estimated to last for a few days. If Putin, ZELINSKY and Johnson are out of place in time and space, they will quarrel in a pub. The topic of snake island alone is enough for them to quarrel all night.
02 what does Snake Island mean?
Snake Island is a small island in the Black Sea. It is narrow and bare. It is easy to be covered by the other side’s gunfire. It is typically easy to attack and difficult to defend.
The reason why Snake Island is of military value is that it is located in the west of Ukraine, close to Odessa, an important coastal town of Ukraine.
At the beginning of the Ukrainian war, the Russian army made an all-round attack, and the military peak once approached Kiev.
When the Russian army launched a full-scale attack, the Navy did not idle, but set out from Crimea to attack all Ukrainian coastal islands westward. The goal of the Russian army is obvious, that is, to occupy the Black Sea coast of Ukraine at the fastest speed. Taking Snake Island is to prepare for the attack on Odessa.
At first, the Russian army launched a fierce offensive and quickly took Snake Island, which means the completion of the sea blockade of Ukraine.
But soon, Russia found it unrealistic to attack Ukraine in an all-round way. So the Russian army changed its target, gave up attacking Kiev and concentrated on attacking Dongwu.
When the Russian army gave up the all-round attack, Snake Island had actually become a chicken rib. Because when the Ukrainian army withdrew, mines were scattered around the Snake Island. It is also difficult for the Russian army to make use of Snake Island to conduct amphibious landing operations against Odessa.
As a result, Snake Island became very weak against the Russian army.
Then why didn’t the Russian army withdraw before? The reason is very simple: the previous Ukrainian artillery fire was relatively weak, which could not threaten the Russian army in Snake Island.
Now, as the range of NATO assisted artillery is getting longer and longer, the Ukrainian army can bombard the Snake Island from kubanski Island 36 kilometers away. It is no longer meaningful for the Russian army to defend the Snake Island.
However, the withdrawal of Russian troops is not a simple military withdrawal, but a multi-party game.
03 multi party game
People who eat melons know that the Ukrainian war has seriously impacted the supply of energy (such as oil), resources (such as steel) and food (such as wheat) in the global village.
In fact, it’s better to say that energy and resources can be replaced by other countries after all. But food is really hard to get.
After all, the Great Plains of Ukraine, known as the granary of the world, is one of the most fertile black lands, which is really hard to replace. As a result, prices in the global grain market have shaken.
The West took this opportunity to accuse Russia of deliberately blocking Ukraine from grain exports.
Now the withdrawal of Russian troops from Snake Island is indeed “a gesture that no longer blocks Ukraine’s grain exports”.
But to say that Russia is completely “goodwill” is also nonsense, more like a game.
Even if the Russian army withdraws from Snake Island, it is not easy for Ukrainian grain to be transported out. Because the Ukrainian army is full of mines around Snake Island, the ships are not safe. The Ukrainian army is too busy to demine.
Of course, the Ukrainian army can invite Western allies to help the Ukrainian army demine around Snake Island from the standpoint of humanitarian assistance. But Wu Jun didn’t have the courage to do that. Because once the demining is completed, the Russian army will fight back, and the Ukrainian army will still have a headache.
And even if the Russian army withdraws, the Ukrainian army probably does not dare to garrison on Snake Island. Because the firepower of the Russian army can also cover Snake Island, the Ukrainian army’s going up is equivalent to sending heads.
So in the next period of time, Snake Island will become a no man’s land. When the Ukrainian army and the Russian army want to brush their sense of existence, they can fire artillery at Snake Island and claim to annihilate how many people of the other side.
In doing so, the Ukrainian army can ask Western allies for resources.
By doing so, the Russian army can give its supporters a response.
In short, Russia and Ukraine can win one victory after another around Snake Island.
From the Snake Island game, we can see:
1. The military confrontation between Russia and Ukraine gradually faded, and finally evolved into the confrontation between East Ukraine, just like the long-term confrontation between India and Pakistan in Kashmir; The probability of direct bloodshed on both sides decreased.
2. War has evolved into political war, economic war, public opinion war, financial war and information war. This model can maintain the confrontation between the East and the West and is conducive to publicity by all parties.
3. Europe returned to the Cold War era, but the iron curtain moved east from Berlin to Dongwu.
4. After Dongwu gradually cools down, the US emperor is likely to make trouble in East Asia. After all, the rich places in the world are still Western Europe, North America and East Asia. Letting the wealth and resources of Western Europe and East Asia flow to North America is the root cause for the United States to become rich.
After the United States made a wave in Europe, it is certainly impossible for East Asia to sit on the mountain and watch the tiger fight.