Original: Zhanhao source: official account: Zhanhao wechat ID: zhanhao668
The future relationship between China and the United States will not be good. This is determined by the United States’ designation of China as the “No. 1 opponent” since 2017. Only when China’s comprehensive national strength can shake off the United States can Sino US relations improve again. This judgment was made by Zhanhao (wechat official account: Zhanhao) several years ago, and is still valid now and in the future.
However, China strongly opposes Pelosi’s insistence on visiting Taiwan, which has objectively shaken the political foundation of Sino US relations. The US government and political circles have not reflected on this, which means that the development of Sino US relations has entered a new stage, and bilateral relations will inevitably fall into greater turbulence in the future.
Just as Zhanhao (wechat official account: Zhanhao) said in the analysis of Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, the crisis in the Taiwan Strait created by the United States is only the beginning. There will be more provocations and the conflict between China and the United States will become more intense. Zhanhao’s judgment has just been verified by relevant information.
According to the global times, John Kirby, the strategic communication coordinator of the National Security Council of the United States, said that China’s military actions have escalated the situation in the Taiwan Strait and tried to establish a new normal, which the United States will not accept. White House press secretary pasaki said that in response to China’s provocative actions, the United States will conduct exercises in the future to promote the stabilization of the situation in the Western Pacific region, which has nothing to do with the relations between the two countries.
Both of the above two people are important channels for the US government to speak out. Kirby shifted the responsibility for the escalation of the situation in the Taiwan Strait to China, saying that China’s military actions have escalated the situation in the Taiwan Strait, and stressed that China is trying to establish a new normal, which the United States cannot accept. What is Kirby’s new normal? That is, China has continuously exercised military control over the Taiwan island for a long time, and has carried out a normal war preparedness alert cruise as it does now. This is what the United States considers the new normal, and it is also unacceptable to the United States.
So, since the United States cannot accept it, how is it prepared to respond to China’s military action?
US White House press secretary pasaki gave an answer, that is, the US side will conduct exercises in the future to promote the so-called “stabilization of the situation” in the Western Pacific region. In other words, in the face of China’s normal military training and cruising on Taiwan Island, the United States is prepared to use exercises to contain China and try to force China to give up its military control over the area around Taiwan Island.
Zhanhao (wechat official account: Zhanhao) believes that the so-called military exercise to be conducted by the United States has two purposes:
1? Suppress and contain the Chinese army and weaken the influence of the PLA. Obviously, after Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, the PLA expanded its own radiation range, and the entire Taiwan Island and surrounding waters were under the control of the PLA, and all this became normal. Kirby made it clear that the United States could not accept it and would send military exercises to balance it. This is obviously to use his military strength to suppress the enhancement of the PLA’s regional influence.
2? We should unite more allies to expand our direct influence in the Western Pacific. The United States wants to curb and suppress the PLA through military exercises. It can be predicted that there are two ways, one is to conduct exercises in the Western Pacific, and the other is to conduct exercises in the Western Pacific with its allies. However, judging from the current intention of the United States, he will be more inclined to pull allies together to carry out military containment against China in the Western Pacific, and military exercises are obviously an important form he is planning.
It is obviously impossible for China to accept the US attempt. At the latest regular press conference of the Ministry of foreign affairs, spokesman Zhao Lijian made a clear statement. Zhao Lijian said that it is the United States and Taiwan separatist forces, not the Chinese side, that are trying to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. “Taiwan independence” forces rely on foreign countries for self-respect and rely on the United States for independence, which are the root cause of the current tension in the Taiwan Strait. Zhao Lijian also asked in reply that the United States, under the pretext of “stability in the Western Pacific region,” is openly trying to “use Taiwan to contain China.” how can it be said that this has nothing to do with China? Has nothing to do with Sino US relations? Finally, Zhao Lijian advised the United States that if it really seeks to stabilize the situation, it should immediately return to the one China principle and the provisions of the three Sino US joint communiques and not send any wrong signals to the “Taiwan independence” separatist forces.
Zhao Lijian fought back against the fallacy of the United States. Although the foreign ministry did not explicitly comment on the so-called military exercise plan of the United States, China’s position and attitude were very clear. After this round of fierce competition, the Chinese army has actually controlled the waters and airspace around Taiwan Island. The United States wants to conduct military exercises. If it does not conduct exercises near Taiwan Island, China will not take it seriously. However, if the US military conducts military exercises near the Taiwan Island, the Chinese military can not stand idly by.
Therefore, it doesn’t matter whether the United States conducts military exercises next, but where military exercises are the key. If the US military really conducts military exercises near the Taiwan Strait, it will really annoy the PLA. As far as China is concerned, it will absolutely not allow the US military to do three things:
1? The US military is swaggering in the waters near China
In 2016, there was a very serious confrontation between China and the United States in the South China Sea. At that time, China has made up its mind that as long as the United States dares to provoke, it will definitely let it have no return. In 2016, the United States finally retreated, and China gained the upper hand in the confrontation.
Six years later, Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan triggered a de facto military blockade of Taiwan island by the Chinese army. In 2016, the US military triggered a confrontation between China and the United States in the South China Sea. This time, the PLA conducted a military blockade against Taiwan Island, and the US military did not dare to approach. This is actually caused by the changes in the military strength of China and the United States in the past six years. The US military certainly did not intervene after measurement.
In fact, since the Chinese military imposed a military blockade on Taiwan island this time, the comparison of the military strength between China and the United States in the first island chain has been on the paper. After this time, the US military will no longer be allowed to show off its strength in the waters near China. Innocent passage is OK, but as long as the US military shows a threat, the Chinese side will certainly take action in sensitive waters.
Therefore, the so-called US military should use exercises to balance the PLA’s control over Taiwan Island. This will eventually become bragging, or it will be strongly countered by the PLA. In short, the US military will not be allowed to show off its strength in the waters near China.
2? US military exercises do not want to enter the vicinity of Taiwan Island
The exercises conducted by the US military or its allies can be far away from Taiwan Island, which is beyond China’s control. However, if the military exercises of the US military and its allies are close to Taiwan Island, China will certainly take measures according to the distance. If the distance needs to be guarded, the people’s Liberation Army will monitor and maintain high vigilance. If the U.S. military or its allies enter the waters near Taiwan Island, I’m sorry. With China’s current military strength, the United States and its allies will not really show off their prowess near China.
It can be predicted that as long as the United States and its allies really dare to come in, the people’s Liberation Army will certainly have strong means to counteract, and a major crisis is likely to occur. Does the United States have the strength to compete with China around China? I’m afraid it’s a little hung up. After all, the aircraft carrier didn’t dare to come this time!
3? US Taiwan military exercises near Taiwan Island
If the United States and Taiwan conduct direct military exercises, it will break China’s political bottom line. Even if such military exercises are far away from China, China will certainly take measures to counteract them. If the United States and Taiwan dare to conduct military exercises near the Taiwan Island, it will be a big deal. The measures that the PLA can take and will take will exceed external expectations. Therefore, once such a situation occurs, China will certainly make the United States and Taiwan feel overwhelmed.
From the above analysis, we know that China’s attitude and position are clear. However, we can see from the US strategy toward China and the successive statements of the US government that it is certain that they will play the “Taiwan card”. Since China has begun to exercise substantive military control over the Taiwan Island, it is inevitable that the United States will conduct military exercises.
Well, the next real point of contention is where the military exercises mentioned by the United States are. If it’s in the Pacific Ocean, far away from Taiwan Island, you can play as you like. China doesn’t care at all. However, if it is performed near Taiwan Island, it will definitely not work! China will never allow it! Whoever dares to come, China will certainly take measures.
Therefore, next, China and the United States are likely to have a fierce competition. The White House has released a clear signal, and China’s bottom line is very clear! I don’t have a choice. It depends on who is stronger and more courageous next! Dare the United States come? As long as the US military dares to come, the Chinese Army dares to fight hard!