Author: Ming Shuyuan official account: Ming shuzatan wechat id:laomingdashu
On June 5, 2022, the last day of China’s Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the Russian Ukrainian conflict entered the 102nd day.
On this day, air defense sirens sounded throughout Ukraine. According to Ukrainian media reports, explosions occurred in two districts of the capital Kiev, and several explosions were heard in Odessa, an important southern port city.
In just over three months, the trend of the Russian Ukrainian war has reversed several times, which is staggering.
In the first stage, the Russian army launched attacks in the East, North and South on multiple lines, with long-distance detours and interludes.
Domestic netizens exclaimed, “start the war in the morning, change your ID card in the afternoon, and go on the news in the evening.”.
But soon, Russia’s “Blitzkrieg” plan failed.
Instead of fleeing at the sight of the wind and “welcoming the king’s division”, the Ukrainian army, with the support of the United States and other NATO countries, fought tenaciously and attacked the Russian army on local battlefields.
Ukrainian President Zelensky shows off the Ukrainian army’s achievements every day.
The western media wrote a lot about how the Ukrainian army bravely thwarted the “aggressive action” of the Russian army.
At this time, some domestic “pro american and anti Russian” netizens began to cheer, “Russia will be defeated, and the invaders will come to no good end!”
After that, the war entered the second stage, and the Russian army began to shrink the front and spare no effort to “fight a decisive battle against Donbas”.
At that time, many people predicted that Russia and Ukraine had gathered elite troops in the Donbas area, and the two sides would repeat the grand scene of the “steel torrent duel” in World War II.
However, the Ukrainian army, which lacked air supremacy, did not pose for a showdown with the Russian army.
On the contrary, the Ukrainian army is scattered in many cities, and Russia has to “build a hard stronghold and fight a stupid war”.
However, as the war progressed, in this war of attrition, the advantages of the concentrated Russian army in terms of weapons and equipment and the quality of its soldiers began to be gradually reflected. Moreover, as the battlefield is closer to Russia, it is easier for Russian troops to supply.
The battle of maryulpol seems to have become a turning point in this war so far.
Here, not only the most effective “Azov battalion” of the Ukrainian army was destroyed, but the Russian army also opened the land channel from Crimea to the eastern Ukrainian region.
At present, the third stage of the war is starting when Russia is about to win the Donbas region (Lugansk and Donetsk).
At this stage, Russia aimed at Kharkov in the north, Nikolayev and Odessa in the south.
(Figure 1: official map of Ukraine)
(Figure 2: proportion of online transmission of Russian as an official language in various regions of Ukraine)
Russia is approaching the goal put forward before the war – “demilitarization” and “de Nazism” in Wudong region.
In fact, we should review a remark made by Russian President Vladimir Putin shortly after the start of the war and the repeated positions of Ukraine in the negotiations. Putin’s main idea is that if Ukraine refuses the peace talks, Ukraine as a country will no longer exist.
At that time, many people did not understand what Putin meant.
Please take a look at Figure 2 above to understand.
So far, Russia’s objectives in this war are very clear:
First, take the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine and completely turn Ukraine into a landlocked country;
Second, take all the pro Russian regions in the East, South and central North of Ukraine, cut Ukrainian territory, so that Ukraine can not continue to exist as a complete country.
Through figure 2, we can also find that so far, the Ukrainian territory “cut” by Russia has a common feature – the proportion of people in the region who support Russian as an official language is very high.
The data in Figure 2 may not be up-to-date, but it still has certain reference value.
The Crimea Peninsula won by Russia in 2014 has 91% of the population supporting Russian as the official language.
In this Russian Ukrainian conflict, Russia took the region, and this proportion is very high. Among them, Lugansk is 84%, Donetsk is 82%, zaporoze is 58%.
Only herzon is a special case. Only 46% of the local population supports Russian as the official language, but Russia also won the region this time in order to completely cut off Ukraine’s export channels in the Black Sea and the Azov Sea.
The goal of the third stage of the Russian war is expected to win Kharkov in the north. 71% of the population in the region supports Russian as the official language, while 70% of the population in Nikolayev, the famous Black Sea shipyard in the south, and 70% of the population in Odessa, an important port city in the Black Sea.
Although Russia has not made it clear, we can reasonably speculate that if the third phase of the war progresses smoothly, Russia is likely to win Dnepr, and 62% of the population in the region supports Russian as the official language.
At this stage of the war, it can be said that Ukraine is over!
We mourn the sacrifice of Ukrainian soldiers and the war suffering of the Ukrainian people.
Ukrainian soldiers shed blood on the front line and Ukrainian people shed tears behind them.
They are not the initiators of the war, but they have become the biggest bearers of the war disaster.
Those who should really be judged by history are those who turned Ukraine, the crossroads of eastern and Western Europe, into the front line of geopolitical confrontation between eastern and Western Europe from the very beginning.
You and I both know where they are today.
The battle has entered the second half.
After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Ukraine’s borders will no longer exist, or even be ruled out. Next, Ukraine may really be divided by Russia, Poland and other countries.
At this stage of the war, the United States has successfully realized some of its intrigues, but its ultimate “poison plan” against Russia has also failed.
The United States had hoped to completely defeat Russia through the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and it would be better to launch a “Color Revolution” in Russia to drive Putin out of office.
In this way, the United States has completely solved the big problem of Russia and can concentrate on dealing with China.
However, although the United States has partially achieved the goals of “controlling Russia with Ukraine” and “controlling Europe because of Russia”, it has completely failed in defeating Russia.
At the beginning of the war, I said, “Russia underestimates Ukraine, and the United States underestimates Russia.”
This is the case.
For hundreds of years, Russia, as a big European country, has two unique conditions:
First, Russia has a vast territory and a great strategic depth. It can be said that over the past 200 years, Russia has relied on this unique advantage to defeat Napoleon in 1812 and Hitler again from the second half of 1942 to the beginning of 1943.
Today, no country will be crazy enough to attack Russia.
The reason is very simple. Russia, which spans eight time zones, has a huge territory. The amazing fighting capacity of the Russian nation at the time of national survival will also make all invaders afraid.
Second, as mankind enters the era of nuclear weapons, the former Soviet Union and Russia have the most formidable nuclear deterrent in the world. This is an important reason why no country, including the United States, dare to directly engage in war with Russia.
Today, the number of nuclear warheads in Russia is still close to 6000. Even if the 1500 nuclear warheads to be retired are excluded, this number is still amazing.
For comparison, the United States has about 3750 nuclear warheads, of which about 2000 will be retired.
Through the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, we have once again witnessed the crucial role of nuclear weapons as the “national weapon” of major powers.
If Russia had no nuclear weapons, the United States and other NATO countries would have hit Moscow long ago.
No matter how much the American and British media boast about Ukraine and disparage Russia, and no matter how many “American fans and Russian blacks” in China hope that Russia will lose, the fact is that since the war started on February 24, the outcome of the war has been doomed.
Russia, which has a strong nuclear deterrent, makes the United States and other NATO countries dare not act rashly. Ukraine can only face Russia’s “iron fist” independently.
At this time, if there is any illusion that the Ukrainian army can start a major counter offensive in August after receiving military assistance from the United States and other western countries, it is really “nonsense”.
Russia has seriously damaged the Ukrainian army’s supply line from the west to the East, and continues to destroy the military equipment provided by western countries to Ukraine.
On the eastern Ukrainian battlefield, the elite troops with the strongest combat effectiveness of the Ukrainian army are almost exhausted. Many Ukrainian soldiers who participate in the war are ordinary people sent to the battlefield as cannon fodder.
Ukrainian President Zelensky is too involved in the drama. Ukrainian government officials have met and resented each other recently.
They thought that they had occupied the “moral commanding height” and began to carry out moral kidnappings against NATO countries, as if NATO countries did not support them to “recover the lost land” and were “cowards”.
However, as the war continues, the goal of the United States using Ukraine to consume Russia has been achieved, and the extreme sanctions imposed on Russia cannot be lifted in the short term. Ukraine’s destiny as a chess piece and a consumable has come to an end.
In the short term, Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO.
In a short time, Ukraine cannot even join the EU.
Over the past few days, it has been reported in several Western capitals that ZELINSKY was asked to give up resistance in time and prepare to “secede and make peace” with Russia.
The United States, which egged on Ukraine before the war and constantly encouraged Ukraine during the war, began to throw out the sentence gracefully, “whether Ukraine should secede and seek peace is their own decision”.
While Ukrainian soldiers and civilians are suffering from the nightmare of war every day, US President Biden is enjoying a seaside holiday in his hometown in Delaware.
Ukraine only serves as consumables for the United States and NATO. It has no capital for the United States and NATO to serve as consumables for Ukraine.
The “scum man” United States will abandon Ukraine.
The trend of the Ukrainian war has been completely reversed.
At a time when the United States thinks it has consumed almost all of Russia, and when the United States thinks it is unable to completely defeat Russia and defeat Putin, it is inevitable that the United States will give up Ukraine when it sees fit.
Don’t forget that the “elites” in Washington have always focused on China.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is the first large-scale geopolitical conflict in the 21st century. It also gives the Chinese people a vivid lesson in geopolitics.
The most remarkable difference between the international community and a country is that, contrary to what many people understand, there are no so-called “international rules” in the international community, nor are there strong institutions that can implement such rules impartially and selflessly. All “international rules” are formulated and interpreted by powerful countries according to their own national interests and preferences, which is precisely the essence of realism in geopolitics.
The domestic “us, Japan, Russia and Montenegro” do not have to worry about whether Russia is an aggressor. It is futile and naive to make a simple moral evaluation of geopolitics. Just like the people of Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria, no matter how hard they try to accuse the United States of not waging war in their country, the result is in vain.
Domestic people need to increase their basic knowledge of geopolitics and understand the history of the game between major powers in the world over the past few hundred years, so as to make a relatively reasonable judgment on the trend of the international situation. Among them, the most important point is not to be superstitious about the “propaganda” of the western media, let alone underestimate Russia.
When we turn our eyes to China, we must understand that China’s best friend is its growing comprehensive national strength.
“The US imperialists are very arrogant. Wherever they can be unreasonable, they must be unreasonable. If they are reasonable, they will be forced to do so.”
Today, let’s review Chairman Mao’s famous words and encourage everyone!