The wind direction is changing. Three new situations have emerged in the world!

This article is reproduced by Niu Danqin (id:bullpiano) with authorization. Author: Niu Danqin

Data map

The wind direction is changing.

June 21, the summer solstice of China’s 24 solar terms, is the longest day of the year. But looking around the world, from a completely personal point of view, the world is not peaceful, and at least three new situations are emerging.

Situation 1: in Latin America, the backyard of the United States has changed.

Sure enough, in the Colombian general election, the former guerrilla Pedro was successfully elected.

AFP commented that this marked the collapse of the conservative and liberal elites who have been in power for two centuries in Latin America’s fourth largest economy.

This is a changing election. This is also the first time in Colombian history that left-wing forces have taken power.

Undoubtedly, this was also a major setback for US diplomacy.

Because in Latin America, Colombia is America’s best friend, not one of them.

Although they are all Latin American countries, Colombia has always been firmly on the side of the United States, even if Brazil and the United States are in friction, Argentina and the United States are turned over, and Venezuela and the United States are at war. It is not that the United States intervened in the Colombian election, but many times the CIA intervened in Latin American politics by using Colombia as a base.

But now, things have changed in Colombia. The president is no longer the favorite right wing in the United States, but the “alternative” of petro.

As a former guerrilla fighter, petro claimed to be a socialist. On the issue of the United States, he severely criticized the “anti drug war” of the United States in Colombia and called for the renegotiation of the bilateral trade agreement between Colombia and the United States.

In his view, the agreement signed between the right-wing government and the United States at that time seriously damaged the interests of Colombian farmers and manufacturers.

After Colombia, Brazil will also hold general elections. As a leader of the left, former President Lula is likely to win the election again.

If Lula is elected, it means that all major countries in Latin America, Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Colombia, Chile, Peru, Venezuela, etc., will be governed by the left or the center left.

Latin America has entered a new left-wing ruling cycle, and its anger at American hegemonism is becoming stronger and stronger. The American Summit hosted by Biden not long ago has become a diplomatic disaster for the United States.

If people’s hearts are scattered, it will be difficult to lead the team. For the United States, the backyard has become a public grievance, which is really not good news.

Second, in Ukraine, the battlefield situation has reached a turning point.

Just a few days ago, French President macron, German Prime Minister Scholte, Italian Prime Minister Draghi and British Prime Minister Johnson visited Kiev in a flash, either together or alone, to express their support for Ukraine.

However, the battlefield situation is becoming more and more unfavorable to the Ukrainian army. In other words, it has reached a turning point.

The Russian army, which was once close to the enemy, changed the original tactics of full-scale attack, focused on the udong Donbas area, and continued to move forward slowly through heavy artillery and tanks.

The Ukrainian army fighting on the Great Plains has fallen into an unprecedented bitter battle. The original Soviet made weapons of the Ukrainian army are basically exhausted. After all, the weapons provided by the West are a drop in the bucket and cannot resist the heavy artillery attack of the Russian army.

Ukrainian foreign minister kuleba complained that in the Donbas region, the firepower ratio between the Russian and Ukrainian artillery reached 15 to 1, and Kiev could not win under the condition of this imbalance of power.

Ukrainian President Zelensky sighed, “every day I struggle for the weapons and equipment needed by Ukraine for the war of resistance against Japan.”

The battlefield is cruel. The weapon of criticism cannot represent the criticism of weapons.

Therefore, we see that more and more towns fall into the hands of the Russian army, and the loss of the strategic town of northern Donetsk is inevitable.

In addition, there are constant reports that the Russian army has captured American mercenaries, which has dealt a great blow to the arrogance of Western society and forced the United States to compromise.

Now Ukraine’s biggest worry is that the west, tired of the war, forces Ukraine to make concessions or even cede land to achieve a ceasefire with Russia for its own interests.

The outcome of this war has long been doomed, and it is indeed time to make a decision.

In case 3, more black swans are rising.

In Britain, railway workers held the largest strike in more than 30 years.

The reason for the strike is that inflation in Britain is too high for railway workers to bear. Inflation has no impact on the rich. “Workers’ salary increases can not keep up with the inflation rate”. Finally, the contradiction broke out. Let’s go on strike.

In India, people block roads, throw stones, and even burn stations and trains.

The reason for the protest is that the modi government launched the “agnipath” conscription plan, which will reduce the number of years and benefits of recruiting soldiers, causing strong dissatisfaction among Indians. Their opportunity to change their destiny by becoming soldiers disappeared.

In France, macron ushered in the most lost result, and the ruling coalition lost its parliamentary control.

Macron also became the first incumbent French president who failed to win multiple seats in Parliament in the 21st century. This means that in the subsequent administration, he will be constrained by the opposition parties in Congress.

In the United States, after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates aggressively, the stock market has fallen into a bear market, but worse still lies ahead.

The most serious inflation in 40 years has made Americans complain, and the Biden administration seems at a loss. Accuse Putin, and Putin will not help. According to the analysis, it is not ruled out that female finance minister Yellen will become a scapegoat, and the situation of the Democratic Party in the next mid-term elections will be grim.

There are many black swans. In some developing countries, the soaring prices have led to the country on the verge of collapse. The world food program has warned that about 300million people around the world may face famine this year.

The specific reasons for these black swans may be various. But there may be one thing in common: the Ukrainian crisis, the Western extreme sanctions, the destruction of the industrial chain supply chain, the continuation of the epidemic in the century, and the large-scale excessive issuance of money by the Federal Reserve

This is a very uncertain world, but the only thing we can be sure of is that we will see more black swans and grey rhinos this year.

There are many more worrying things. Some unexpected small things, if not effectively solved, may even change history.

In solidarity with Ukraine, Lithuania recently ordered that Russia be prohibited from transit transport of prohibited goods to Kaliningrad. Kaliningrad borders Poland and Lithuania. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Kaliningrad has become an enclave of Russia.

This angered Russia, which strongly condemned the move of the cub as an unprecedented “violation of international obligations” and “an open hostile act”. According to media reports, Russia has issued an ultimatum to Lithuania. If it does not resume transit transport as soon as possible, Russia will take action.

Is this developing into a new conflict? I don’t know.

But no possibility can be ruled out. But there are enough tragedies in this world. You always have to pay back when you come out.

Finally, let’s say something.

The treasure seafood restaurant, a landmark of Hong Kong cuisine, left Hong Kong for Southeast Asia a few days ago. However, when it was towed to the waters near the the Xisha Islands in the South China Sea, the wind and waves hit, and the ship fell into the water and tipped over. Finally, it was unable to turn back. On the 19th, it sank to a depth of about 1000 meters.

This was an ordinary sailing accident, and it was reported that there were no casualties. However, because there are too many historical memories in the seafood restaurant, people are particularly sorry. A friend sighed:

Some things look very powerful and tall,

That is because relying on the home port, you can enjoy the cool under the big tree,

When Zhenfang was born, he sank to the bottom,

This ship is a fable of Hong Kong’s destiny

I don’t know if it’s a Hong Kong fable. But in this stormy world, we are all sailing in unknown waters. Let’s go and cherish it.