The window period of the general election!

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Author: Sheng Tang Rusong Source WeChat official account: The Shopkeeper’s Dao has been reprinted with authorization

It is said that Biden is about to announce his re-election, which is not surprising. For the President of the United States, it is almost impossible to announce that he will not run for re-election. The so-called life is endless, and the election is endless. Biden will announce his re-election as long as he doesn’t fall dead from the plane. This will reduce the time of running-in for the group behind him and enable Biden to serve them more efficiently. If you change people halfway, the best way is to break down the middle way, rather than change the general. The advantage of the collapse of the middle way is that the vice president takes over. The team and philosophy are similar and more controllable and sustainable.

At the same time, Trump also began to prepare for his comeback. He said that if he was the president of the United States, the Russian-Uzbekistan war would not break out. He also said that even if the war was raging now, as long as he took office, he could end the war within 20 hours. Trump did not brag about this point. Indeed, if the United States announced the termination of military assistance to Ukraine, Zerenski would immediately have to give up. As for Putin, Trump is more confident. Didn’t you ask Ukraine not to join NATO? Then don’t let it join. In addition, Trump can even hint to Putin that he can also make NATO “brain dead”. This is the evaluation made by French President Marcon on the United States in NATO during Trump’s administration. At that time, Trump had been looking for trouble with NATO. If it was not for the fact that the President of the United States could not represent the true will of the United States, Trump estimated that it would really break up NATO. In fact, his approach is also very simple: constantly increase the expenditure of European countries on defense costs, increase the weight of European countries in the NATO structure, and finally let Europeans take responsibility for their own security and pay for it.

However, his efforts not only enraged the leading forces of the United States, but also made a group of European countries accustomed to playing the tiger under the wing of the United States tremble with fear. In fact, Europe and South Korea are very similar. South Koreans seem to be ‘stubborn, no one is afraid’ and dare to cut off their fingers to protest. But in fact, their dependence on the United States is more serious than that of infants on nannies. If the Americans really want to withdraw the American troops in South Korea, the Koreans themselves will be the first to lie on the ground and cry and disagree. This is true of South Korea and Europe. So even though today’s Russian-Uzbekistan war has caused great damage to the European economy, they still feel that the United States has the warmest wings.

It goes further. Back to the topic of the US presidential election. Yesterday I said that the US presidential election is one of the opportunities for the Russian-Uzbekistan peace talks. If Biden wants to be re-elected, the Russian-Uzbekistan war must be an obstacle to his re-election. Because Trump has made it clear that he will end the Russian-Uzbekistan war. Moreover, many American presidents won the presidential election with the slogan of ending the war. For example, Eisenhower won the election with the slogan of ending the Korean War. Nixon also won the election to end the Vietnam War. Obama also promised to end the two wars that the United States fought in Iraq and Afghanistan during the campaign.

It can be seen that ordinary voters in the United States do not like war. But each time they voted for a president who claimed to end the war, and then ushered in a new war soon after. The cycle is endless. Although the time of the Russian-Uzbekistan war is still very short, it is not enough for American voters to get bored. However, the internal strength of the United States is not as good as before. Moreover, the war is still faced with the Russians, whom the American people have always regarded as the great enemy. The strength of each other and the changes in the international situation may make the American voters tired of the war next year, or even feel afraid, because Trump went to Ohio the day before yesterday to visit the victims of the East Palestinian City, He has already said to the voters there that “Biden has brought all the money to Ukraine, but has turned a blind eye to East Palestine.” The shrewd Trump has begun to lead the voters’ sentiment towards the direction of war weariness.

For him, the Russian-Uzbekistan war was an indispensable opportunity to help him campaign; For Biden, the Russian-Uzbekistan war may become a stumbling block on his way to re-election. So even if Biden does not intend to end the Russian-Uzbekistan war, he will make peace talks before the general election. Lest Trump take advantage of this weakness.

So it’s China’s turn to show up. The Biden government and the Putin government have completely lost trust and the basis for dialogue. It can be said that Putin could not believe everything Biden said, and the United States and Europe would not believe everything Putin did. Every time the leader of the gang in Linjiang City in “Rage” changes his position, he needs Uncle Tai to settle the situation. Although they all feel that Uncle Tai is inferior to themselves, without Uncle Tai’s guarantee, they can’t trust each other. [In fact, even with Uncle Tai’s guarantee, it will not affect the final result. This is because Uncle Tai has indeed lost the ability to restrict these junior generation.]

Negotiations must require mediators and guarantors. Erdogan in Türkiye can mediate, but he can’t guarantee. He has nothing else, is not big enough, and can’t hold the ground. Looking around the world, who can have the qualification of both guarantee and mediation is the only Chinese ear. No matter how fierce the fight between China and the United States is, we are still maintaining it. And China’s position does have a decisive impact on the current situation. If China really goes further in its relations with Russia and provides limited military support to Russia. Then Biden doesn’t want to create an atmosphere of peace talks before the election. If he cannot create an atmosphere of peace talks, his re-election campaign will have weak points.

China has said for a long time that China-Russia relations do not accept third-party threats. What China does is entirely based on China’s principles of peace and its own interests. In the upgrading of relations with Russia, we do not need to step into a relationship similar to that between Belarus and Russia. It is possible to move forward step by step. For example, as the United States said at the beginning, it supports non-offensive equipment, medical and logistics support equipment, etc. After doing so, look at the attitude of Europe. If we still hold an arrogant and arrogant attitude towards China, then we can go further and provide some defensive things for Russia. Of course, there are some measures that can be taken more slowly, which can’t be put forward by an outsider, but I believe that at the national level, these tools can be subtle and detailed. Every small step forward can make people in Europe and America tremble. This is part of the reason why China’s position, as I have stated, determines the situation of the Russian-Uzbekistan battlefield.

During this period, China will have much more initiative. It is worth looking forward to whether Makron’s visit to China in April will lead to more in-depth discussions and cooperation with China on this matter. Because at this time, even though the United States is very alert to the exchange of China-EU relations, it will not interfere too much because it also wants to create an atmosphere for peace talks. We can see that Zelensky claimed that China’s position document and Ukraine’s position document are relatively consistent. So he hopes to have talks with China. Of course, talking about this matter is just his dream. On the issue of NATO expansion, China and Russia are in agreement. If Ukraine does not make an effective guarantee on this issue. The basis for the negotiation will not exist. Moreover, I believe that Zelensky, on the one hand, is following the American will and using China’s proposal for peace talks to create a negotiating atmosphere and create the illusion of peace aspirations. He also wants to rub against China’s size to show his position in the world. As for whether he really wants peace talks or not, he can’t decide by himself.

Therefore, we still have many options on how to take advantage of this window of initiative. One is to help Europe not to be euthanized in the arms of the United States. [This is very difficult, but it seems to be more willing to do it]. One is to continue to strengthen cooperation with Russia in the non-military field, make the sanctions imposed by the United States and Europe on Russia more effective, and also make China’s RMB settlement have more space.

The window period is not long. It’s still two years. When the next president of the United States takes office, and the dust settles in Russia and Ukraine, then the country that faces the focus of conflict should be us.

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