Author: lukewarm source: official account: lukewarm studio has been authorized to reprint
By June 4, 2022, the Russian Ukrainian war, which has been fought for several months, has undergone several twists and turns, and the overall situation has been determined.
Now the Russian Ukrainian war in the daily news has become unbearably vulgar. Like soap operas, it is developing at a speed of 100 meters every day. The people who eat melons are so anxious that they can’t wait for the final outcome.
Some readers say that your prediction of the Russian Ukrainian war is wrong? It took much longer than the first article you wrote to analyze the war situation.
It must be said here that it is normal to predict the direction of war incorrectly, and it is absolutely correct. It is simply a ghost.
Even Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said at the press conference many times that he did not know where the war was going or when it would end. It was difficult for such a big man as him to predict. It was too difficult for you to let a Chinese we media far away make predictions.
I don’t stay next to Putin every day to listen to his meetings. How can I predict?
In addition, we try to use the word “speculation” to speculate based on the existing data in our hands, rather than the word “prediction”. I have said in many articles that I am not a God, so I do not make predictions, but I do speculate at the top of the sky, and the measurement accuracy is quite bad.
As an we media thousands of miles away from the battlefield, what we can do is to tell the readers what has happened as objectively, popularly and clearly as possible. This is our main task. We are forced to make predictions and deliberately change your predictions into predictions. It is a person with separate intentions who deliberately digs holes for you to jump.
Even the data used for speculation are constantly refreshed. As soon as we get new data, we have to make a new judgment.
For example, in the early days, the United States kept predicting when Russia would attack Ukraine, and the way Russia played a big vertical and deep encirclement. Everyone was confused. The reason for this was not announced until the end of April.
It turned out that before the Russian Ukrainian war, Putin saw that Ukrainian officials at all levels were extremely corrupt, so he asked the fifth Bureau of the Russian Federal Security Agency to take money to buy off senior Ukrainian military officials, copying the plan that the United States spent $3billion to bribe 500 senior Iraqi officers in 2003.
In that year, each division commander in Iraq received 10million US dollars, and was promised that his family could immigrate to the United States or serve in the new government. All over Iraq, the defense minister and the commander of Baghdad city defense received tens of millions of US dollars to meet the king’s division.
In the end, the U.S. army defeated Medina division, the only resistance of the Iraqi army, and took Iraq at the cost of more than 100 deaths.
Putin thinks it’s good to do the biggest thing with the least money. In the fifth inning, you take the money and bribe Ukrainian officers. We also want to take a walk and travel to win Ukraine.
There were 150 people in the fifth inning. The speaker was Beseda and the deputy was boliuhe. When the two brothers saw the good guy, they spent billions of dollars in cash and didn’t need to write an invoice. It was easy to do. The two brothers swallowed the money directly. In order to prevent the matter from being exposed, they dragged the whole department into the water and distributed money to all their subordinates. The leaders took the lead and the departments took the lead. They drew up a false bribery list and reported it to Putin, Tell us who charged us how much and what they promised to do for us.
The Ukrainian army has been hollowed out by us just like the Iraqi army in those days. Once our army arrives, we can eat Ukraine in a week and ensure that everyone can eat and drink to welcome the king’s division.
At the end of 2021, Putin held a secret meeting and said that he was going to conduct military operations against Ukraine. All of them were settled by our comrades in the fifth inning. Our army would just drive to take over the cities.
All the comrades in the fifth bureau are good comrades.
Beseda and borikh were scared to cry. They didn’t expect such a big price for bragging. In order to stop Putin’s plan and prevent corruption from being exposed, they had to sell intelligence to the CIA to force Putin to change his mind.
Do you still remember that before the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the United States repeatedly predicted in advance the time when the Russian army “invaded” Ukraine? Do you still remember the embarrassing scene of Putin questioning the intelligence chief in front of the public?
It turned out that all the reasons were caused by Beseda and boluhe.
In the plan of the general staff of the Russian army, they did not go to Ukraine to fight a hard battle. Among the 200000 troops on the front line, only 60000 to 80000 people rushed to fight against the 200000 troops in Ukraine at first. They planned to collect weapons to maintain public order.
I still remember that when the Russian army attacked Kharkov earlier, a batch of materials were seized by the Ukrainian army. Even the police were equipped. At that time, I couldn’t figure out what was going on. The original checkpoint was here.
As soon as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine began, the tenacious resistance of the Ukrainian army stunned Putin: why is this wrong? Didn’t it say that it was good to do things with money?
Was Putin the great, who was born in the intelligence department, actually fooled by the intelligence department?
After investigation, it turned out that the fifth inning really swallowed the money. In a fit of anger, Putin arrested all the leaders of the fifth inning for corruption, dereliction of duty and leakage of secrets. All the 150 people were washed away. With the Russian bear’s temper, Beseda and borikh must be shot.
It was only after the US intelligence department told the British colleagues and the British colleagues sold it to the British times and other media that it slowly spread to the market. The Russian authorities have now killed them.
So as soon as the war between Russia and Ukraine started, Lian pukyoto looked confused and could not predict what would happen later. You asked an we media to predict
You stamp you too.
The war has already started, and it has already fallen into a stalemate. Fortunately, the Russian army has a big generation gap with the Ukrainian army. After some adjustment, the new commander dvornikov changed his way of playing. The Russian army approached inch by inch through positional warfare, less tanks and aircraft, and opened the way with infantry and artillery. From the East and south, it bit by bit encroached on the Ukrainian army’s positions, stabilizing the situation.
According to the information of various media, the Russian army now has sufficient ammunition, and the casualties and losses of the army are negligible. The Ukrainian army should be killed by artillery every day (this data has not been very accurate). In addition to the injuries, the Ukrainian army cannot be consumed for a long time.
It’s all because of the family background. Otherwise, the Russian army would almost be overturned by the intelligence department this time.
Because NATO opened a satellite intelligence system to Ukraine, it could see the trend of the Russian army at any time. The Russian army could not fight mobile warfare, so it sacrificed positional warfare. Only then was the Ukrainian army suppressed and retreated slowly. The Ukrainian army fought bravely. Against Russia on the plains, it took people’s lives to defend its positions layer by layer, and did not dare to fight at all.
However, there is a huge gap between the national strength of the two countries. The current situation of the war is just a normal reflection of national strength. Russia will stabilize a little. As long as NATO does not end, it will basically win.
The real winners and losers actually took place outside the battlefield. It was Russia’s financial war against Europe and the United States.
The 76 year old white haired finance minister Yellen led the financial war in the United States; Russia led the financial war by Elvira nabiullina, a 59 year old little woman and President of the federal bank.
The financial war was conducted under the command of two women.
Yellen is familiar to everyone. She is the one who urges Biden to reduce China’s taxes on TV every day. Nabiulina is very strange to everyone. I want to give you a brief introduction.
Nabiulina was born in an ordinary family. Her father was a driver and her mother was a worker. She was a genius at reading since childhood. She was admitted to the Economics Department of Moscow University with high scores. She became a student bully of the whole department. She won a scholarship and married her own economic theory teacher here.
She mainly studied under Professor Yassin, an economist. Yassin was the economic minister in Yeltsin’s time. He brought nabiulina into the political arena. In 1990, she joined the economic management committee of the Soviet Union’s science League. Since then, she has been working in the Russian Ministry of economy with a steady career path. When Putin was president in 2000, she became the Vice Minister of the Ministry of economic development and trade. In 2013, she began to manage the Russian central bank.
After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Yellen made moves. The United States immediately frozen Russia’s 300billion gold and US dollar foreign exchange reserves (340billion remaining), prevented some Russian financial institutions from processing payment and other transactions through the US financial system, evacuated US funded enterprises, and frozen the ruble foreign exchange market.
The ruble exchange rate suffered a devastating blow, plunging 85% at its lowest.
War is the most expensive project in the world. If there is no money, Russia will make a mistake.
Nabiulina’s response is to stop foreign exchange trading in the stock market. After the reopening of the stock market, it is only allowed to buy but not to sell. Unfriendly countries that buy Russian oil, natural gas, coal and grain must open ruble accounts in Russian banks and use rubles to pay for purchases (key), and also open an underground import commodity market to solve the domestic commodity supply.
Finally, it announced that from March 28 to June 30, gold would be purchased at a fixed price of 5000 rubles per gram, linking the ruble to gold, breaking the restrictions on bank liquidity.
After nabiulina’s response began, the war on the front line between Russia and Ukraine stopped for several days. After seeing the ruble start to rise, Putin took a long sigh of relief and started again.
Grain and grass are expected to continue to fight.
The ruble has risen by 200% since then, and now it is 20% higher than that at the beginning of 2022. Nabiulina even wants to take measures to prevent the ruble from rising again.
Russia’s foreign exchange market and stock market were all preserved.
Two months after the first round, Yellen was defeated by nabiulina.
Nabiulina won the first time because European countries really need Russian oil and natural gas. I have written the specific reasons before, so I won’t repeat the data here.
This is Russia’s national talent and an important reason why Russia cannot be defeated. Other countries can’t play like this.
According to the prediction of Bloomberg, Russia will obtain 285billion US dollars from the export of oil and natural gas in 2022, making 800million US dollars a day, 20% higher than last year.
The daily expenses of the Russian army are about 900million dollars. (calculated by sofrep of overseas military network)
Even the United States is buying a lot of Russian oil. In March, the United States bought 17.825 million barrels of oil, an increase of 8.6% over February and 103% over January. Russia climbed from the ninth largest crude oil supplier of the United States to the sixth largest.
All said no, all were honest.
Yellen, who lost the first round, began to dominate the second round of financial war.
It’s easy to say, just two steps.
The first is to ask the EU not to buy Russian oil and natural gas. The second is to ask the Middle East tycoons to increase production, hit Russian oil prices and seize the Russian market.
On June 3, the EU announced the sixth round of sanctions against Russia, including oil embargo, sanctions against Russian oil tankers, banks, media, etc.
Only the oil embargo is relatively new and important. The rest is the same old story. The Russians are too lazy to look at it.
30% of the EU’s imported oil comes from Russia. Last year, the total value of imported Russian oil was 71billion euros, two-thirds of which went by sea and one-third by pipeline. The EU plans to stop buying Russian marine oil within six months and temporarily exempt the pipeline. By the end of 2022, the EU’s oil imports from Russia will be reduced by 90%.
Why should those who go through the pipeline be exempted?
As Slovakia, Hungary and the Czech Republic are landlocked countries in the European Union, they have no seaports and can not transport oil through tankers. They can only rely on the druzhpa oil pipeline built in the Soviet era. The north line of the pipeline reaches Germany and Poland, and the south line reaches Darth Hungary and other countries. For example, Slovak, where 92% of its oil comes from Russia, and Hungary, where 60% of its oil and 85% of its natural gas come from Russia, should not live in embargoed countries, So it can only be exempted.
The EU still imports 40% of its natural gas and 20% of its coal every year. How come they don’t respond?
It is also forbidden. At the EU meeting on May 3, simsson, the EU speaker in charge of energy, said that Russia’s natural gas would be sanctioned.
However, the transportation and storage of natural gas are more complicated than that of oil. There are still fierce discussions within the EU, and they will probably be announced in the seventh round of sanctions against Russia.
Taking advantage of the fact that the sanctions have not yet begun, EU countries are frantically buying Russian natural gas. In May, Russia sold 61billion cubic meters of natural gas, a record high. In May, the import volume of European natural gas reached 10.8 billion cubic meters, also a record.
In 2021, the EU spent a total of 62billion euros. Due to nabiulina’s financial strategy, the price of natural gas rose sharply. It is estimated that in 2022, the EU will spend 100billion euros to buy natural gas from Russia.
If all the expenses are deducted from the bill of Russia, it is necessary to buy natural gas from the United States. However, the price of LNG natural gas in the United States is four times higher than that of pipeline natural gas in Russia.
I also thought I had misspelled. After checking again, it was indeed 4 times. When the Austrian president met Putin in 2018, he said that the US LNG was three times that of the Russian pipeline. “Only fools use us LNG.”
In January, 2022, the data of Polish export companies showed that the price of LNG imported from the EU to the United States was five times that of Russian pipeline gas.
Four times the market price, sprinkle water.
The Russian Ukrainian war now feels like it is killing the European Union.
If Russia reduces its energy exports to the EU, will its economy collapse? Will Yellen’s plan succeed?
The European Union banned two-thirds of the oil, Russia earned 10billion dollars less a year and all the natural gas (impossible, some countries can not afford to buy natural gas from the United States), and Russia earned 60billion euros less a year.
Russia’s total energy export in 2022 is expected to be 270billion US dollars, all of which will be cut off without affecting one fifth of Russia’s energy resources.
And Russia can find a new buyer to settle the European account.
In 2021, Russia’s natural gas output will be 514.8 billion cubic meters, with a total export of 185.1 billion cubic meters, most of which will be sent to Europe, while China only has 38billion cubic meters. It is a big deal to allocate exporters.
Another Eastern superpower, India, is frantically buying Russian oil.
The figures are extremely exaggerated.
In March 2022, India purchased 3million barrels of Russian oil, 7.2 million barrels in April, 24million barrels in May and 28million barrels in June. (source: refinitiv EIKON)
This figure is simply appalling.
The reason why India bought a large amount of oil is said to be the transfer price of Russian oil in Asia, which is about $34 a barrel lower than the Brent oil futures price.
I don’t know whether India bought oil for its own use or sold it to EU countries. Anyway, India won again.
European and American countries have accused India of making too much money, but the Indian Foreign Minister spoke eloquently at the Bratislava Forum:
We don’t send people to buy Russian oil, we just send people to buy oil in the market and buy the best oil!
Hob meat meets hob meat, who can take India to have a way?
The scheme of asking the EU not to buy now seems to be unworkable, but will it work for the Middle East tycoons to increase production and crack down on Russian oil prices as they did in the 1980s?
The latest news in June was that OPEC began to increase production under the US signal, with an increase of 432000 barrels per day in June and 648000 barrels per day from July to August.
OPEC’s daily production capacity is about 28million barrels, and it increases by 430000 barrels a day. What does he mean?
Because the oil price is so high, he wants to make more money. Who would be willing to increase production to hit the oil price? It’s a day to make more money.
Can’t you see that the market value of Aramco exceeds that of Apple again? Without the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the Saudis would not have such a good life. They are crazy and throw their jobs at increasing production.
Biden is now in a hurry. He has announced that he will visit Saudi Arabia in July and asked Saudi Arabia to increase production.
But the United States in 2022 is really not the United States in 1980. My little brothers are really disobedient.
In early March this year, Biden took the initiative to call Saudi Arabia to ask for communication on the oil issue, but the call request was rejected.
The Saudi royal family particularly hates Biden, because Biden said that Saudi Arabia is a “untouchable country” in an interview on the inkashuji incident in 2018, and promised to make the Saudi royal family a “social outcast” after he took office.
The Saudis have written this down in small books. It is not too late for Muslims to take revenge.
Judging from the current situation, it is very likely that Yellen will lose to nabiulina in the second round of the match. After all, both ways are now impassable.
As long as Russia’s financial resources are unobstructed, Russia will certainly win the war between Russia and Ukraine. It has the upper hand in military affairs and financial resources. Unless it kills itself, it is impossible to win.
The winner of the Russian Ukrainian war is still firmly in nabiulina’s hands.
Finally, the United States seems to have weakened its control over the younger brother. In the 1980s, Saudi Arabia cooperated with the United States to kill the Soviet Union. Today, Biden actually wanted to be a villain and asked Saudi Arabia to work for them.
The Arab News said that China is the world’s largest oil importer, almost half of which come from GCC countries.
“The Gulf countries are embracing economic relations with China with open arms.”