Source: Xinchao meditation (ID: Xinchao chensi)
Author: Sega
The news of high temperature superimposed power restriction in Sichuan has been in the forefront of all hot lists for a long time. While we sympathize with the misfortunes and difficulties suffered by our compatriots, it may be that the high temperature is prone to generate fire. There are also some disputes among various places due to the issue of power supply guarantee, and even the familiar situation of regional blackmail has been formed again. It is a pity that, after all, in the face of an irresistible “natural disaster”, we focus too much on the “man-made disaster”, This will not only weaken the joint force in fighting disasters, but also affect the unity in the future. It can be said that it is unnecessary and harmful.
The current problem in Sichuan is “natural disaster”. No matter how we explore the “man-made disaster” problem from the perspectives of abandoned thermal power, West to East power transmission and industrial power distribution, objectively speaking, as a large power province with unique geological conditions and abundant hydropower resources, Sichuan’s previous industrial layout and energy policy are in line with the general law.
In 2021, the cumulative power generation of Sichuan Province was 432.95 billion kwh, ranking the sixth in the country. However, the production and domestic power consumption of Sichuan Province was only 327.481 billion kwh, accounting for about 70% of the power generation capacity. This was achieved when many power stations did not operate vigorously due to insufficient power load and limited transmission capacity. Under the current situation of insufficient means of energy storage, the surplus power generation capacity can not be saved even if it is not sent out. There is no problem in supporting the fraternal regions. At the same time, Sichuan is actively laying out some high energy consuming industries. It only hates that it is not enough, and naturally it will not consider the plan for power shortage.
However, the black swan came suddenly. Affected by the continuous high temperature, the water from Sichuan Province was extremely dry. In July, the water from the Dadu River, Minjiang River and other major rivers in the province generally decreased by more than 40% compared with the historical average for many years. The daily power generation of hydropower decreased by 50%, and continued to decline at an average daily rate of 2%. Sichuan is a large hydropower Province, with the installed capacity of hydropower accounting for about 80%. The power supply capacity of the province has dropped sharply due to the precipitous decline of hydropower generation capacity. At the same time, the electricity consumption of residents’ air-conditioning has increased significantly under high temperature. Taking Chengdu as an example, the electricity load of air-conditioning has accounted for 40-50% of the power load of Chengdu during the peak period – the supply has been halved and the demand has doubled. Under the double whammy, even if we try our best, we can only wait for our fate.
What’s more, although the tradition of “one side has difficulties and all sides support” still exists, and many places are trying their best to provide power to Sichuan, this year China is experiencing “the strongest continuous high temperature weather since the complete historical record”. In the past two months, a total of 914 National meteorological stations have reached the extreme high temperature event standard, and Hebei, Shaanxi, Sichuan, Hubei, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong The daily maximum temperature of 262 national meteorological stations in Qinghai and other places was the same or exceeded the historical extreme value. Many places had a “power run” due to the peak of air-conditioning power consumption, and there were even tragedies of people dying of “heat stroke” in many places.
Compared with the heat caused by high temperature, what is more serious is the reduction of grain production caused by drought. According to statistics, the area of arable land affected by drought in 9 provinces and cities including Sichuan, Chongqing, Hubei, Hunan, Anhui and Jiangxi has reached 32.99 million mu. The autumn harvest after high temperature is also worrying.
Coincidentally, this year, Europe also experienced a rare heat wave in history. In the past two months, the temperature in some parts of Europe reached a record high. The heat wave in June killed 2468 people in Europe. In July, at least 4224 people in Europe died due to the heat wave. The Rhine River level repeatedly hit new lows. Even the sinking of Nazi Germany in that year reappeared.
I believe that many people may still have memories. In the past few years, we can often learn from authoritative media channels such as news broadcast that European and American countries were hit by heat waves, which led to frequent floods, civilian deaths, food production reduction, factory closures and other huge disasters. At that time, there was a joke circulating on the Internet that the news network insisted on publicizing “the suffering of foreign people” for 100 years. Now, it seems that the suffering is actually objective and realistic, just like the words of the president at that time, it is really “the world is cold and hot”.
Climate warming, the wolf that has been shouting for decades, seems to be really coming, and the impact of climate warming is increasingly becoming our pain.
For a long time, there have been several negative views on climate warming on the Internet. Among them, there are three representative views. The first one denies climate warming. For example, it believes that the temperature of the Shang Dynasty and the Tang Dynasty was much warmer than that of the present. It also believes that the major trend in the future is climate cooling. It believes that the current concern about climate warming is groundless; The second category is to recognize climate warming, but deny the impact of human behavior on climate warming, and think that human emissions have little impact on climate change, and we do not need to control and manage our own behavior at all; The third category is to recognize both the climate warming and the human impact, but believe that we cannot give up our own industrial development for the sake of climate warming. From the third category, there is also an upgraded patch version, that is, it is believed that although climate warming does have a great impact on the whole of mankind, because of factors such as the northward movement of the precipitation belt, the benefits to China as a whole outweigh the disadvantages.
On the whole, no matter which type, its core point will be the same: that is to say, the developed countries think that limiting carbon emissions is a trick to limit the catch-up of the later developed countries, and try to limit the economy of the later developed countries to a lower level by limiting emissions, so as to ensure their own leadership. In addition, in recent years, the “environmental protection religion” style behavior art and double standard attitude of the White left in Europe and the United States have also intensified the negative cognition of the bystanders on climate change, turning this grand proposition concerning the survival and destiny of mankind that should be taken seriously into a certain sense of play, which greatly dispels the seriousness and urgency of this proposition itself, and also makes people lack of preparation in the face of this sudden natural disaster, And then he was at a loss.
In view of these remarks, I would like to put forward several opinions to study and discuss with you.
The first is about the authenticity of climate warming and the impact of human behavior on climate warming. At present, there is no absolutely conclusive theory and experimental conclusion that can anchor the causality of the period. At the same time, it is impossible to quantify the impact.
As academician Ding Zhongli said in a well-known video before, many previous research papers on climate warming and the impact of human behavior on climate warming are essentially a “vacuum spherical chicken” type simulation modeling. Many conclusions are neither comprehensive nor accurate, and it is difficult to give an accurate and accurate scientific answer. There is still room for discussion and questioning, We can still regard this topic as a scientific issue rather than a political issue, analyze it with modern scientific and technological means and scientific research thinking, and constantly approach the possible results. Moreover, judging from the current progress, we still have a long way to go. We may even be at the starting point, but not the end point.
Secondly, from a large number of observation data and personal experience, there is an undeniable fact, that is, since human beings have complete meteorological records, extreme weather events in recent years have been increasing and more frequent. The impact of this extreme climate on our daily life is becoming more and more obvious and close. Whether it was the heavy rain in Henan last year or the drought in Sichuan this year, they were all accidents that significantly exceeded our experience and expectations, and also disasters that caused huge personal injuries and economic losses. Behind this remarkable disaster, the impact of the change of the planting, animal husbandry and fishery environment is even greater.
No matter what causes this phenomenon and how much human behavior can affect, the existence of this phenomenon has become an undeniable objective fact. Just as theory cannot prove the impact of human behavior on the climate, the historical maximum temperature we cited and the average temperature we discussed are not as good as those in the Han and Tang Dynasties, and so on, can not successfully solve the harm caused by these extreme weather conditions we are facing. Under such circumstances, it is meaningless to deny the impact of climate warming and human beings. Even if this increasingly extreme climate is a part of the natural evolution of the earth, as members of the biosphere affected by it, we must seriously consider and deal with it, adapt or overcome it, and we can never lie flat.
Thirdly, among the numerous uncertain factors affecting the climate, carbon emissions are about the few behaviors that can have a significant causal effect on climate warming that can be agreed by the civil and academic circles, and the control and reduction of carbon emissions are also the few work objectives that can reach an international consensus and form a joint force to address the climate challenge. Since the existence of life on the earth, the carbon cycle link of carbon dioxide carbonate organic carbon inorganic carbon carbon dioxide in nature has been established. Every change of carbon cycle in history has caused huge ecological disasters. For example, the famous Permian extinction is caused by the inability of rocks to absorb carbon dioxide after long-term weathering, which leads to more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and exacerbates the greenhouse effect, Finally, it led to the interruption of ocean current and acidification of sea water in the global range, resulting in the extinction of more than 95% of organisms at that time.
According to the observation, the atmospheric carbon content has risen sharply in the past 100 years. Although the total amount is not too large, the rate of change is unprecedented. Let alone the relationship between this change and human behavior, it is almost certain that the current climate change is closely related to it. So try to reduce their own carbon emissions within the scope of human capacity, whether it is to make up for human behavior or delay the natural trend, which are the few options that human beings have the subjective control ability at present.
Therefore, we should vigorously support and cooperate with carbon peak and carbon neutralization, which is the key goal of China in the future, as well as the development and construction of new energy, within the scope of our current cognition. We should not dismiss some double standard practices and performance art as useless because of people. Instead, we should show the right path with our practices and achievements, so that the environmental protection cause can return to the right track.
Finally, choosing to control carbon emissions does not mean stopping development, nor does it mean “deindustrialization”, nor does it mean being content to be behind developed countries. On the contrary, carbon reduction requires us to continuously improve our productivity and scientific and technological level, reduce unit energy consumption, explore clean energy, and achieve higher output with less resources. Let’s imagine that when we encounter such a high-temperature disaster, we need ultra-high voltage technology to transmit electricity across thousands of miles, we need nuclear power plants to provide stable energy supply, we need a large number of fertilizer and irrigation equipment to support food planting, and we need air conditioning to maintain our normal life——
Which of the above can be achieved by giving up our industrial capacity? If we really give up this technological capacity and production capacity, when this irresistible disaster (even if we completely abandon carbon, the natural evolution of the climate will also cause disasters) comes, will we not be even more defenseless? We can say that the climate in the Han and Tang Dynasties was hotter, but who would like to return to the productivity of the Han and Tang Dynasties to face the hotter climate?
Only by continuously developing the advanced productive forces and continuously improving our ability to actively transform and adapt to nature can we truly ensure that we are not harmed by climate fluctuations. On this point, China has a clear understanding and a solid strategic determination. Since 2012, China’s energy consumption per unit of GDP has been reduced by 24.6%, which is equivalent to reducing energy consumption by 1.27 billion tons of standard coal, and it is planned to continue to reduce by 13.5% during the 14th five year plan period. “As one of the main binding indicators of economic and social development, it fully reflects the responsibility of a large country with carbon emissions.
As for other countries, many people worry that if other countries go their own way, our efforts will be wasted or even greatly damaged. However, as the title of this article says, “the world is cool and hot”, the climate problem is cross-border, and any beggar thy neighbor behavior will eventually lead to its own harm. When we say human community, we actually mean two things:
First, we are all on the same boat, so we should have cooperation; 2? You are also on this boat, so even if other people are crazy and want to die, you have to drive the boat for yourself.
If there is another meaning, that is, if the captain is not willing to take this responsibility, if the gentlemen in the first class are not willing to do this job, let us drive them down and let those who have the will and sense of responsibility take the helm.